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139 Million Nigerians in Poverty Despite Three Years of Tinubu’s Reforms – World Bank
139 Million Nigerians in Poverty Despite Three Years of Tinubu’s Reforms – World Bank
Despite nearly three years of sweeping economic reforms and various palliative measures, about 79 per cent of Nigerians remain poor or vulnerable to falling into poverty, according to new World Bank documents, as experts point to inflation, weak job creation, and governance gaps as key obstacles.
The findings, contained in the World Bank’s Country Partnership Framework for Nigeria (2026–2032) and its accompanying Streamlined Country Diagnostic, reveal that about 139 million Nigerians currently live below the national poverty line, with poverty concentrated largely in the northern part of the country. The report further indicates that 33 per cent of the population is classified as ultra-poor and unable to meet minimum food requirements, while 61 per cent live below the poverty line. This means approximately 139 to 140 million citizens are trapped between soaring food prices, a weak naira, unreliable public services, and wages eroded by inflation. The reforms aimed to free fiscal space and attract investment, yet the benefits have yet to translate into meaningful improvements in living standards for most Nigerians from Lagos to Kano.
A herd of economic and finance experts have given reasons why, despite successive governments’ promises that subsidy removals, tax overhauls, and cash transfers would lift millions out of poverty, the relief has not matched the hardship for most households. CEO of CFG Advisory, Dr Adetilewa Adebajo, noted that rising inflation continues to undermine purchasing power, consumer demand, and overall growth. “We’re expecting that maybe when inflation gets to single digit, the amount of Nigerians in poverty will reduce. But as inflation begins to inch up again, then you’re going to affect purchasing power. There is need for us to coordinate our industrial policy with our trade policy and our investment policy, so that you can begin to increase productivity and create employment. That is the key challenge in Nigeria right now,” he said. Adebajo’s analysis points to the interconnected nature of Nigeria’s economic challenges, where monetary instability and lack of productive capacity reinforce each other, trapping millions in poverty despite macroeconomic adjustments.
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Job creation has been identified by the World Bank as the single most important pathway out of poverty for Nigeria. The report warns that reforms alone would not significantly reduce poverty unless they generate jobs on a large scale. According to the document, one in four Nigerian youths is neither employed, in education, nor in training, while the majority of workers remain trapped in low-productivity, low-paying informal jobs. It projected that about 60 million young Nigerians would enter the labour force over the next decade, making employment generation Nigeria’s most urgent development priority. This demographic pressure, if left unaddressed, threatens to deepen the poverty crisis and fuel social unrest across the country.
ActionAid Nigeria Country Director Andrew Mamedu echoed widespread frustration, stating that the World Bank has confirmed what many Nigerian families already know – that nearly 8 out of every 10 Nigerians are poor, or one shock away from becoming poor. He highlighted that poverty rose from 40 per cent in 2019 to 61 per cent in 2025 and now 79 per cent in 2026, despite claims of stabilisation, rising reserves, and investor confidence. “Who exactly is this recovery for?” Mamedu asked, pointing to 33 per cent (77 million) facing food insecurity, 86 million without electricity, and 84 per cent of children aged 5-14 unable to read age-appropriate sentences. He criticised government spending, noting less than 1 per cent of the budget protects the vulnerable, with only 8 in 100 poor Nigerians accessing safety nets, while 60 million youths face a constrained job market. Mamedu’s comments highlight the growing disconnect between official narratives of economic recovery and the lived realities of ordinary Nigerians.
The World Bank raised serious concerns over the country’s limited social protection coverage. According to the report, public spending on social protection represented just 0.14 per cent of Gross Domestic Product in 2021, far below the Sub-Saharan African average of 1.1 per cent, and only 8.5 per cent of poor Nigerians were covered by any form of social safety net. The report noted that social protection programmes remain heavily dependent on external financing and must be complemented by investments in education, healthcare, and skills development to improve productivity and earnings. Researchers have concluded that without transparent and accountable mechanisms, palliative distribution risks deepening existing inequalities and further eroding public trust in governance. Academic analysis suggests that food palliatives are not merely humanitarian aid but a calculated political instrument that temporarily appeases public discontent while diverting attention from systemic governance failures such as chronic poverty, corruption, and institutional dysfunction.
Public policy analyst, Engineer Adesanya Adebayo questioned the disconnect, asking whether the average Nigerian can feel the impact of economic reforms in their daily life. He identified bad governance as a core reason, a view shared by many who contrast official data with ground realities, rejecting what some term “paper economics.” Similarly, a quantity surveyor and construction advisor, Olumide A. Aremu, argued that true development requires nationwide impact, not isolated projects. “A developed country is one where ordinary people feel the difference every single day. In 2026, Nigerians still celebrate electricity because it came back. That should never be normal.” He called for construction across all 36 states rather than concentrated efforts in major cities. These expert voices collectively underscore that Nigeria’s development challenges are not merely technical but deeply rooted in governance failures, policy coordination gaps, and a lack of inclusive growth strategies.
Despite the grim statistics, the World Bank acknowledged that recent macroeconomic reforms have helped stabilise the economy and restore investor confidence. Economic growth increased from 3.5 per cent in the first half of 2024 to 3.9 per cent during the corresponding period of 2025, foreign reserves have risen above $42 billion, fiscal deficits have narrowed, and investor confidence has strengthened. The Bank projected that poverty levels could begin to decline gradually starting from 2026 as inflation continues to moderate and economic conditions stabilise. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has, however, warned that Nigerians will face higher prices for essential goods in 2026, cautioning that the trend could worsen poverty and food insecurity despite improvements in the country’s macroeconomic stability. The World Bank stressed that sustained implementation of reforms, supported by deeper structural changes, would be necessary to improve the country’s medium-term economic prospects and ensure that the benefits of reform reach the millions of Nigerians who remain trapped in poverty.
139 Million Nigerians in Poverty Despite Three Years of Tinubu’s Reforms – World Bank
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Kano Rainstorms: Nine Lives Lost, Over 4,500 Displaced
Kano Rainstorms: Nine Lives Lost, Over 4,500 Displaced
Kano, Nigeria – Between January and August 2026, severe rainstorms and windstorms ravaged eight local government areas in Kano State, claiming nine lives and displacing 4,524 residents, the Kano State Emergency Management Agency (SEMA) has confirmed.
The agency’s Executive Secretary, Isyaku Kubarachi, disclosed the figures in an interview, noting that 49 other individuals sustained injuries of varying degrees during the eight-month period. The storms represent the most destructive among the six major disasters recorded across the state within this timeframe, according to Kubarachi, who emphasized the severity of this year’s rainy season compared to previous years.
The affected local government areas are Gaya, Ajingi, Rimin Gado, Minjibir, Kabo, Bichi, Shanono, and Kibiya. Bichi recorded the highest number of victims with 775 affected persons, followed closely by Minjibir with 712 and Kibiya with 630. Shanono recorded 530 victims, while Ajingi had 415. Gaya recorded 342 affected persons, Rimin Gado had 233, and Kabo recorded 102 victims, making it the least affected among the eight LGAs.
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The latest figures follow a particularly devastating rainstorm in Bichi on July 22, 2026, which initially generated conflicting reports about the death toll. SEMA later clarified that five people died in that specific incident, correcting earlier media reports that had placed the number at eight. The storm destroyed numerous houses and property valued at millions of naira, leaving many families without shelter and basic necessities in the Bichi area.
In the wake of the Bichi disaster, the Kano State House of Assembly adopted a motion of urgent public importance. Sponsored by Lawan Shehu, the member representing Bichi Constituency, the motion called on the state government to provide immediate relief materials and humanitarian assistance to the victims. The motion was passed during a plenary session presided over by Speaker Jibril Falgore, with lawmakers expressing concern over the recurring nature of such disasters and the need for proactive measures.
SEMA has completed comprehensive on-the-ground assessments of all affected communities and submitted detailed reports to the Kano State Government to facilitate intervention. Kubarachi assured that the agency is ready to begin distribution as soon as relief materials are received, stating, “The agency had compiled comprehensive reports and submitted them to the state government for assistance to victims. As soon as we receive relief materials, they will be distributed to them.” He also urged residents in flood-prone areas to heed weather warnings and take necessary precautions as the rainy season continues.
Kano Rainstorms: Nine Lives Lost, Over 4,500 Displaced
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NBA controversy: VDM apologises to security agencies over ‘unknown gunmen’ remarks
NBA controversy: VDM apologises to security agencies over ‘unknown gunmen’ remarks
Social media activist Martins Vincent Otse, popularly known as VeryDarkMan (VDM), has apologised to Nigerian soldiers, police officers, customs and immigration personnel over controversial remarks he made at the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA) 66th Annual General Conference in Port Harcourt, Rivers State.
VDM issued the apology in a video released on Friday, admitting that his description of the military, police, immigration and customs personnel as “unknown gunmen” was unfair to security personnel who are risking their lives to protect Nigerians.
The activist made the controversial remarks during a panel session at the NBA conference, where he was invited to speak on Nigeria’s insecurity and related issues.
During the discussion, VDM criticised the country’s security architecture and questioned why perpetrators of kidnappings, killings and other violent crimes were frequently described as “unknown gunmen”.
He also alleged that some security personnel manning checkpoints could identify wealthy travellers and allegedly pass information about them to kidnappers. The claim attracted considerable attention and further intensified debate over the role of security agencies in tackling Nigeria’s insecurity.
However, in his latest video, VDM said he had reflected on his remarks and realised that the manner in which he delivered his criticism could be interpreted as a blanket accusation against the entire security establishment.
“I don’t think I was fair to a lot of people, particularly the speech where I said that the military are the unknown gunmen, the police are the unknown gunmen, you know, the immigration, the customs,” he said.
VDM maintained that he had intended to draw attention to individuals he described as “bad eggs” within the security agencies rather than accuse every soldier, police officer or other security operative of wrongdoing.
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“I know exactly what I was trying to say because, I mean, I have evidence to back up my claim, but I wasn’t fair to a lot of people in that speech,” he said.
The activist said he was particularly concerned about the effect his comments could have on soldiers serving in conflict zones and fighting Boko Haram and other insurgent groups.
“That speech was not fair, especially to the soldiers that are in the bushes fighting Boko Haram to protect our lands, to protect our lives, and to protect our families,” he said.
He added that it would be unfair to describe such soldiers as “unknown gunmen”, noting that many had sacrificed their lives in the line of duty.
“I don’t think it’s fair to say they are also the unknown gunmen, to be very honest, because these people have laid down their lives,” he said.
VDM consequently apologised to the Chief of Defence Staff, asking that his apology be extended to soldiers deployed to conflict areas.
“So I will go further to say to the Chief of Defence Staff, Sir, I really want to apologise for that speech, and I don’t want to discourage your boys,” he said.
“Please extend my apologies to your boys, to the ones that are in the bush protecting our lands,” he added.
He also apologised to personnel of the Nigeria Police Force, Nigeria Customs Service and Nigeria Immigration Service, as well as families of security personnel who have died while serving the country.
VDM said he understood that relatives of fallen security personnel could feel offended by his comments because their loved ones had made significant sacrifices in the service of Nigeria.
“To the families of these heroes that might have also felt offended by this speech, knowing fully well that their brother, their sister, their son, their husband fought and died for this country, I am really, really sorry,” he said.
Despite the apology, VDM maintained his criticism of alleged corruption and misconduct within the country’s security architecture.
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He said his original argument was aimed at what he described as individuals within the security agencies who allegedly leak sensitive information or sabotage the operations of their colleagues.
“My speech was not to discourage you. My speech was entirely to talk about the bad eggs in our security operative, our security forces, is to put attention on the bad eggs, so that the leaders in these security settings will look inward and to see that sometimes information are being leaked and their own people are sabotaging them,” he said.
VDM acknowledged that his choice of words made it appear as though he was generalising his allegations across the security agencies.
“But by passing that speech, like I said, it seems like I was generalising and it’s not fair to the fallen soldiers,” he said.
He also said he had maintained interactions with some police officers and had occasionally shared security-related information with them.
“Me and police, we work steady. I give, sometimes I share police information, tell them, ‘Oh, this is what is happening here, please, can you intercept,’” he said.
The activist urged security personnel who are carrying out their duties honestly not to be discouraged by his earlier remarks.
He said he was concerned that a soldier deployed in a remote location could watch the video of his NBA speech and feel that Nigerians did not appreciate the sacrifices being made by troops.
“Imagine a soldier fighting in the bush and he watches VDM’s video, and he’s like, ‘Ah, VDM is one of us now, unknown gunman.’ That would discourage him, to be honest,” he said.
At the same time, VDM maintained his allegations against individuals he believes are involved in corruption, sabotage or the leaking of sensitive information.
“But then again, to the bad eggs, your days are numbered,” he said.
“To all of you in the military that are sabotaging and causing deaths to your officers, your days are numbered,” he added.
The apology comes amid controversy over VDM’s appearance at the NBA Annual General Conference, which also attracted criticism from some members of the legal profession.
Senior Advocate of Nigeria Femi Falana had questioned the decision to invite the social media activist to participate in a specialised discussion, arguing that professional gatherings should ensure that speakers addressing specialised subjects possess relevant expertise.
VDM subsequently defended his participation and explained why he was invited to the conference. He later responded to some of the criticism through social media, including a video in which he appeared wearing a lawyer’s wig and gown.
The latest apology also follows the separate controversy surrounding VDM’s allegation that some police officers manning checkpoints allegedly pass information about wealthy travellers to kidnappers.
The Nigeria Police Force challenged him to provide evidence to substantiate the allegation.
VDM, in response, maintained that he had evidence to support his claim and challenged the authorities to take him to court, saying he would present the evidence if required.
In his latest video, however, he clarified that his criticism was not intended to condemn security agencies or the personnel genuinely working to protect Nigerians.
“I actually know more than the people I was trying to communicate with, so it was not really communicated properly,” he said.
He urged Nigerians to continue supporting security personnel fighting terrorism, kidnapping, banditry and other security threats across the country.
“And to the patriots, to the heroes, to our fallen heroes that have died to protect this country… I am really, really sorry,” he said.
“Keep on fighting for our beloved country, God bless all of you. We Nigerians are with you,” he added.
VDM’s apology has now shifted part of the debate from the substance of his original allegations to the manner in which he communicated them.
While he has acknowledged that describing security agencies collectively as “unknown gunmen” was unfair, he continues to insist that alleged corruption, information leaks and internal sabotage within security institutions deserve attention.
His allegations against specific security personnel remain allegations and have not been established as facts by a court or independent investigation.
The police response and any subsequent investigation could determine whether evidence exists to substantiate specific claims made by the activist.
For now, VDM has sought to draw a distinction between his criticism of alleged misconduct within the security system and the work of soldiers, police officers and other personnel who risk their lives to protect Nigerians.
His latest comments are likely to fuel further discussion about the need for public criticism of security institutions to be balanced with recognition of the sacrifices made by personnel serving in conflict zones and other dangerous environments.
NBA controversy: VDM apologises to security agencies over ‘unknown gunmen’ remarks
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Sambisa Forest: Over 23 terrorists reportedly killed as Boko Haram, ISWAP clash in Borno
Sambisa Forest: Over 23 terrorists reportedly killed as Boko Haram, ISWAP clash in Borno
More than 23 terrorists have reportedly been killed in renewed fighting between rival Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) factions in the Sambisa Forest area of Borno State.
The latest confrontation reportedly occurred around the Chingolo axis of Bama Local Government Area, where Boko Haram fighters attacked ISWAP members who were advancing into the area.
Counter-terrorism expert Zagazola Makama disclosed the development in a post on X, saying the confrontation was part of a renewed wave of hostilities between the two rival terrorist organisations.
According to Makama, the latest fighting began about two days ago and involved sustained exchanges of gunfire as the factions battled to consolidate their positions and prevent each other from expanding their influence within the forest.
Preliminary intelligence indicated that more than 23 terrorists had been killed on both sides since the latest round of fighting began.
However, the exact casualty figures for Boko Haram and ISWAP could not be independently verified.
Makama said the confrontation reportedly started after ISWAP fighters moved into the Chingolo area, prompting Boko Haram fighters operating in the vicinity to launch an attack against the advancing group.
The latest clashes highlight the continuing rivalry between the two insurgent factions over territory, access routes, resources and control of fighters operating in the Sambisa Forest and surrounding areas.
The rivalry between Boko Haram and ISWAP dates back several years and has periodically resulted in deadly clashes between fighters belonging to the two groups.
ISWAP emerged from a split within Boko Haram after some commanders and fighters pledged allegiance to the Islamic State. Since then, the two factions have competed for influence, territory and access to resources across parts of Borno State and the wider Lake Chad Basin.
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The Sambisa Forest remains strategically important because of its difficult terrain and its history as a base for insurgent activity. The expansive forest has been the target of repeated military operations aimed at dismantling terrorist camps, disrupting logistics networks and restricting the movement of insurgents.
The latest internal fighting could further weaken both factions by inflicting casualties and disrupting their command structures, logistics and freedom of movement.
It could also provide security forces with an opportunity to gather intelligence on the locations and movements of fighters weakened by the confrontation.
The development comes amid continued Nigerian military operations against Boko Haram and ISWAP in the North-East.
Troops operating under Operation Hadin Kai have continued to conduct ground and air operations against terrorist positions in Borno and neighbouring areas, targeting fighters, camps, weapons and logistics networks.
Despite sustained military pressure, however, both Boko Haram and ISWAP have retained the ability to operate in remote areas and launch attacks, particularly around the Lake Chad Basin and parts of Borno State.
Recent security assessments have also pointed to continued militant activity across the Lake Chad Basin, with northeastern Nigeria remaining one of the major theatres of insurgent violence in the region.
The renewed Boko Haram-ISWAP confrontation therefore presents a complex security situation. While fighting between the rival factions could reduce their strength, prolonged instability could also create opportunities for surviving fighters to regroup, recruit new members or seek control of additional territory.
Security agencies are reportedly monitoring developments around the Sambisa Forest and Bama axis, while intelligence gathered from the clashes could assist ongoing counter-terrorism operations.
Communities in and around areas bordering the Sambisa Forest are also expected to remain vigilant and report suspicious movements or activities to the relevant security authorities.
The casualty figure remains subject to further verification as security agencies continue to assess the extent of the fighting and its impact on the two rival insurgent factions.
Sambisa Forest: Over 23 terrorists reportedly killed as Boko Haram, ISWAP clash in Borno
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