2027: Donald Duke warns divided opposition could hand Tinubu victory

2027: Donald Duke warns divided opposition could hand Tinubu victory

The presidential candidate of the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP), Donald Duke, has warned that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu could win the 2027 presidential election if opposition parties fail to unite behind a common candidate.

Duke, a former governor of Cross River State, gave the warning on Monday during an appearance on Channels Television’s Politics Today, shortly after attending a meeting of major opposition parties in Abuja to discuss plans for greater cooperation ahead of the 2027 general election.

The meeting brought together representatives of six opposition parties — the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Allied Peoples Movement (APM), Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), PRP and Social Democratic Party (SDP) — as part of renewed efforts to build a common political platform against the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

However, prominent opposition figures, including Atiku Abubakar of the ADC and Peter Obi of the NDC, were absent from the gathering.

Duke said the absence of unity among opposition parties could repeat the pattern witnessed during the 2023 presidential election, when votes were divided among several major candidates.

“Absolutely, with the chequered opposition it won’t work; Tinubu might win,” Duke said when asked whether a fragmented opposition could allow the President to secure another term.

He argued that Tinubu would not necessarily need to win more than half of the votes cast nationwide to emerge victorious, because Nigeria’s constitutional requirements allow a presidential candidate to win by securing the highest number of votes while meeting the required geographical spread.

Duke recalled that Tinubu won about 37 per cent of the votes in 2023, suggesting that a similar pattern could occur in 2027 if opposition candidates remain divided.

“Last time he had about 37 per cent of the votes. So that scenario may replay itself,” he said.

“It may even be less. He may get maybe 25 per cent,” Duke added.

According to the PRP candidate, the opposition’s fragmentation could enable Tinubu to win with a relatively small percentage of the total vote, provided he secures the required spread across the states.

“He doesn’t need to get eight million votes. He could just get 10 votes more, five votes more than every other person. He has a majority,” he said.

Duke described such an outcome as producing a minority government, arguing that an incumbent could return to power without receiving more than half of all votes cast if opposition candidates split the electorate.

His comments came as opposition parties intensified discussions on how to avoid another fragmented presidential contest.

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At the Abuja opposition summit, Duke said he was prepared to sacrifice his own presidential ambition if the participating parties eventually agree on another candidate who is better positioned to defeat Tinubu.

Asked whether he would step aside for another candidate, Duke replied: “Absolutely.”

He said the first requirement was for the opposition to establish a common objective before determining who should lead the presidential campaign.

“Once we have commonality in objective, the next question is who is best suited for this?” he said, stressing the need for a “voice of reason” among the various political interests.

Duke also offered a critical assessment of Tinubu’s performance in office, distinguishing between the President’s political ability and his record in governance.

“Give it to him, he is a formidable politician, my issue with him is governance not politics,” Duke said.

The former Cross River governor argued that Tinubu no longer enjoys the level of public sympathy he had during the 2023 election.

He attributed the change to worsening economic conditions and what he described as growing public disillusionment with the administration.

“Things have gone harder for people, a lot of people are disillusioned by his style of governance, hope has turned into despair,” he said.

Duke argued that while the ruling party may have political structures across the country, voters would ultimately make decisions based on their personal experiences and economic circumstances.

He therefore urged opposition parties to focus on building a credible alternative rather than relying solely on political structures.

The PRP presidential candidate also warned opposition parties against waiting until after the election before responding to possible electoral challenges.

He said political parties should anticipate problems that could arise on election day and develop strategies to mitigate them before voting begins.

“The reality is that things are bound to happen on that day, how to mitigate those things should be the major concern of the opposition,” he said.

Duke added that opposition parties would have themselves to blame if they repeated the mistakes of previous elections.

The Abuja summit had earlier produced proposals aimed at strengthening opposition cooperation, including a Government of National Competence, a proposed single four-year transition term and a roadmap towards selecting a common presidential candidate.

The parties also agreed to establish working groups to develop proposals on opposition unity, political reforms and the process for producing a common candidate.

However, the absence of some of the most prominent opposition figures from the first summit highlights the difficulties that could confront efforts to create a united platform ahead of 2027.

The question of who would eventually emerge as the opposition’s presidential candidate is expected to be particularly contentious, given the presence of several influential politicians with presidential ambitions.

For Duke, however, the overriding objective should be defeating the ruling party, even if that requires individual politicians to step aside.

He maintained that a divided opposition could once again allow Tinubu to benefit from vote splitting and secure another term with a relatively low share of the overall vote.

The emerging opposition coalition will therefore face a major test in the months ahead: whether its leaders can move beyond individual ambitions, agree on a credible common candidate and build an effective electoral structure before the 2027 presidential election.

If they fail to do so, Duke believes the opposition could repeat the experience of 2023 — and hand Tinubu another electoral advantage.

2027: Donald Duke warns divided opposition could hand Tinubu victory