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Nigeria FX Market: Dollar Demand Surges, Naira Slides Slightly in Festive Season

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Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today: Naira Holds Steady as Fuel Importer Demand Mounts

Nigeria FX Market: Dollar Demand Surges, Naira Slides Slightly in Festive Season

Nigeria’s foreign exchange (FX) market has experienced increased dollar demand as year-end “Detty December” spending intensified, placing mild pressure on the naira despite sustained interventions by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and rising external reserves.

The naira depreciated by 0.1 per cent week-on-week to N1,456/$1, as heightened holiday-related imports, international travel, and corporate year-end settlements offset a $250 million FX injection by the CBN and inflows from offshore investors.

Data from the apex bank showed that Nigeria’s gross external reserves rose for the 25th consecutive week, climbing by $396.84 million to $45.44 billion as of December 11. The increase has reinforced investor confidence and strengthened the country’s external buffers.

In the forwards market, the naira depreciated across 1-month (-0.4% to N1,485.97/$1), 3-month (-0.5% to N1,536.28/$1), and 6-month (-0.9% to N1,599.70/$1) contracts, while the 1-year contract appreciated slightly by 0.3 per cent to N1,726.89/$1.

Market analysts attributed the renewed pressure on the naira to seasonal FX demand, a trend typical of the festive period, while noting that inflows from diaspora remittances, inbound travel, and tourism spending could provide some support later in the month.

The Financial Markets Dealers Association (FMDA) noted that despite heightened demand, December also often sees improved foreign-currency inflows, which could strengthen the naira.

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The official FX market recorded a 1.73% month-on-month depreciation in November to N1,446.74/$1, reflecting a combination of rising seasonal demand and external pressures, including a stronger US dollar amid ongoing US–China trade tensions.

Domestic measures continued to support stability. The CBN retained the Monetary Policy Rate at 27%, while the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) expanded naira-denominated crude sales to local refineries to curb domestic dollar demand.

In the parallel market, the naira weakened slightly to N1,476/$1 in late November, widening the gap with the official rate. Analysts, however, noted that the gap remains narrow, supported by steady diaspora remittances and moderated import demand.

Following a sharp devaluation two years ago, the naira has stabilized significantly, strengthening by N215.73 over the past year in the official market. The rollout of the CBN’s Electronic Foreign Exchange Management System has improved market transparency and price discovery.

As of December 2, 2025, the naira had appreciated by 14.93% year-on-year to N1,445.39/$1, but analysts caution that its stability remains vulnerable to structural external sector weaknesses and global oil market volatility.

“Strong net FX liquidity, a positive current account position, and rising external reserves continue to underpin investor confidence. Combined with slow import demand growth, we expect the naira to remain broadly stable in the near to medium term,” said analysts at Cordros Research.

Nigeria FX Market: Dollar Demand Surges, Naira Slides Slightly in Festive Season

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Dangote Refinery drives sevenfold surge in Nigeria’s petroleum product exports

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August 26, 2026

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Dangote Refinery drives sevenfold surge in Nigeria’s petroleum product exports

Dangote Refinery drives sevenfold surge in Nigeria’s petroleum product exports

Nigeria’s petroleum product exports have surged nearly sevenfold since 2023, with the Dangote Petroleum Refinery playing a major role in the country’s rapid shift from dependence on imported refined products to increased domestic supply and exports.

The latest figures from the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) show that Nigeria’s seaborne petroleum product shipments averaged 561,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the second quarter of 2026, compared with an annual average of 79,000 bpd in 2023.

The EIA based its assessment on shipping data from energy intelligence firm Vortexa Analytics, which showed that about 350,000 bpd of the products shipped during the second quarter were exported. That compares with an annual average of just 46,000 bpd in 2023.

The dramatic increase has strengthened Nigeria’s position in the international refined petroleum market, with the EIA attributing much of the growth to the commencement of operations at the Dangote refinery in January 2024.

The 650,000-barrels-per-day refinery, located in the Lekki Free Zone in Lagos, has significantly increased Nigeria’s domestic refining capacity and enabled the country to produce larger volumes of petrol, diesel, aviation fuel and other refined products.

“With increased supply of petroleum products in Nigeria from the country’s largest refinery, imports fell, exports increased, and Nigeria became more self-sufficient in refined petroleum products,” the EIA said.

Before the Dangote refinery began operations, Nigeria’s state-owned refineries collectively shipped less than 100,000 bpd of petroleum products to domestic and international destinations, according to the EIA.

The increase in shipments accelerated after the Dangote facility commenced operations and received another boost following the completion of maintenance and expansion work in February 2026.

The work increased the refinery’s crude distillation capacity from 650,000 bpd to 700,000 bpd, allowing the facility to process more crude and increase the volume of refined products available for domestic consumption and export.

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The rise in production has coincided with a sharp decline in Nigeria’s dependence on imported petroleum products. Seaborne imports, which were close to 400,000 bpd in 2023, fell to less than 130,000 bpd in the second quarter of 2026, according to the EIA.

At the same time, the volume of petroleum products transported between Nigerian ports has increased substantially.

Intra-Nigerian petroleum shipments reached 211,000 bpd in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 81,000 bpd in 2025 and only 33,000 bpd in 2023.

The increase indicates that more refined products are being distributed by sea within Nigeria, particularly from coastal refining and storage facilities to other parts of the country.

Nigeria’s growing refining capacity has also opened up greater opportunities in overseas markets, particularly Europe.

EIA data showed that Nigerian seaborne petroleum product exports to Europe averaged 130,000 bpd in the second quarter of 2026. This was up from 40,000 bpd in 2025 and 15,000 bpd in 2023, representing an increase of roughly 767 per cent over the 2023 level.

Nigeria also increased shipments to other African markets. Exports to African destinations outside Nigeria reached nearly 120,000 bpd in the second quarter, compared with 89,000 bpd in 2025.

The country also shipped significant volumes of petroleum products to Asia and Oceania, further demonstrating the expanding reach of Nigeria’s refined fuel exports.

The EIA said the growth occurred partly amid disruptions to petroleum product flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which created opportunities for alternative suppliers as some international markets faced tighter supplies.

The development marks a significant change in Nigeria’s petroleum trade. For decades, the country exported crude oil while importing substantial quantities of refined products because its domestic refineries operated below capacity or remained shut for extended periods.

The Dangote refinery has altered that pattern by increasing the volume of refined products available within Nigeria while creating surplus volumes for export.

The EIA had previously reported that Nigeria’s petroleum product exports almost quadrupled in 2024 following the Dangote refinery’s commencement of operations, rising to an average of 146,000 bpd from 46,000 bpd in 2023.

The refinery’s growing contribution is also coming as its owners prepare for another major expansion. Dangote Group plans to add a second 750,000-bpd crude distillation unit by 2028, which would further increase the complex’s potential refining capacity.

The company is also preparing for a potential initial public offering (IPO). Recent reports indicate that Dangote Refinery is targeting an October 2026 IPO as investors continue to assess the refinery’s crude supply arrangements, production costs and long-term growth prospects.

Despite the significant rise in domestic refining, the refinery still relies partly on imported crude oil to maintain operations. Recent reports indicate that between 30 and 40 per cent of the refinery’s crude supply currently comes from imports.

Nevertheless, the latest EIA data show that the refinery has become an increasingly important component of Nigeria’s downstream oil sector, contributing to higher domestic product availability and a substantial increase in exports.

The development could strengthen Nigeria’s role as a major supplier of refined petroleum products in Africa, particularly as demand for fuels continues to grow across the continent.

For Nigeria, the combination of rising exports, falling imports and increasing domestic shipments represents a major transformation in the country’s petroleum products market.

The latest figures therefore underline the growing economic significance of the Dangote Refinery and its potential to reshape Nigeria’s position in both the domestic and international petroleum market.

Dangote Refinery drives sevenfold surge in Nigeria’s petroleum product exports

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Dangote Raises Petrol to N1,200/Litre Despite Crude Price Decline – Second Hike in Five Days

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August 26, 2026

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Dangote Raises Petrol to N1,200/Litre Despite Crude Price Decline – Second Hike in Five Days

Dangote Raises Petrol to N1,200/Litre Despite Crude Price Decline – Second Hike in Five Days

Refinery implements N15 increase even as Brent crude falls by $5, raising questions about domestic pricing dynamics.

Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals FZE has increased the gantry price of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) from N1,185 to N1,200 per litre, effective August 26, 2026, marking the second price adjustment in less than a week and adding to the financial burden on Nigerian consumers. The latest increase comes despite a notable decline in international crude oil prices, raising fresh questions about the factors driving domestic fuel costs in Africa’s largest economy.

In an official communication to customers issued on Tuesday, the refinery’s Group Commercial Operations announced revised depot prices for gantry and coastal deliveries. The email, titled ‘PMS Price Change Communication (N1,185 per Litre To N1,200 Per Litre)’, directed customers to take note of the revised prices effective from Wednesday. According to the price table contained in the notice, the coastal price rose from N1,562,265 per metric tonne to N1,582,380, representing an increase of N20,115 per metric tonne. The refinery further instructed customers to return all Authorisation to Collect documents for repricing, adding that new volume contracts would be issued for immediate loading resumption.

The latest adjustment represents a N15 per litre increase in the gantry price and comes barely five days after the refinery raised the price from N1,165 to N1,185 per litre on August 21. The two adjustments have therefore added N35 per litre to the refinery’s gantry price within a short period, a development that is expected to transmit pressure through the downstream market and potentially push pump prices to an average of N1,250 per litre as marketers factor in transportation and other costs.

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The timing of the increase has raised eyebrows among industry observers, coming as international crude prices have moved in the opposite direction. When Dangote announced the previous N20 increase on August 20, Brent crude stood at approximately $93.48 per barrel amid heightened concerns over supply disruptions and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. However, by Tuesday, Brent crude had fallen by $3.74 to $88.43 per barrel as the market reacted to new United States sanctions on Iran, representing a decline of about $5 per barrel, or more than five per cent, over the period.

Data from oilprice.com on Tuesday showed West Texas Intermediate crude trading at $82.13 per barrel, down $2.88 or 3.39 per cent, while Brent crude stood at $88.37 per barrel, declining by $3.80 or 4.12 per cent. Murban crude also fell to $92.71 per barrel, shedding $8.73 or 8.61 per cent. Reuters reported that oil prices fell as investors viewed the latest US sanctions against Iran as less threatening to global oil supplies than a military escalation. The contrast means that while the refinery increased its PMS price when crude was above $93 per barrel, it is implementing another increase when the international benchmark has dropped below $89. This divergence between falling international crude prices and rising domestic petrol prices is likely to fuel fresh debate over the factors determining pump prices in Nigeria’s deregulated downstream petroleum market.

Industry analysts point to structural factors beyond international crude prices that explain the disconnect between global benchmarks and local fuel costs. The primary challenge lies in the naira-for-crude arrangement between the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) and the Dangote Refinery. Under this programme, Dangote was expected to receive crude oil in naira at a discounted rate, enabling it to produce petrol at lower costs for domestic consumption. However, a significant shortfall in supply has undermined this arrangement. According to refinery management, Dangote receives only about five crude cargoes per month under the naira programme, far short of the thirteen cargoes required for full capacity operations. This forces the refinery to procure the remaining cargoes using foreign exchange, exposing production costs to the volatile naira-to-dollar exchange rate and international crude prices.

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A senior refinery official, speaking on condition of anonymity, confirmed that the Federal Government has promised to make dollars available to the refinery in exchange for the petrol it sold in naira, as the refinery had bought crude oil in dollars. Under the proposed arrangement, the government would supply enough foreign exchange to cover the refinery’s crude import costs, which run into billions of dollars. The Dangote refinery was supposed to receive about 13 million barrels of crude monthly under the naira-for-crude deal but has since been getting less than 35 per cent of this allocation, thereby relying on crude imports from Ghana, the United States, Angola, and recently the United Arab Emirates. Official cargo records show the refinery imported 40.40 million barrels of crude between May and June 2026 at a combined cost of about $4.48 billion, with May cargoes averaging $124.80 per barrel and June cargoes averaging $95.25 per barrel.

The price increase comes against a backdrop of broader concerns about Nigeria’s ability to supply its growing domestic refining capacity. Analysts note that Nigeria’s petroleum challenge is shifting from inadequate refining capacity to insufficient crude availability, as domestic refining capacity expands while upstream production struggles to meet competing demands for refinery feedstock, export obligations, and crude-backed financing commitments. Nigeria’s crude oil output hit 1.56 million barrels a day in June 2026, the highest since 2020, but still a fraction of what a fully built-out domestic refining sector will eventually demand. Dangote’s 650,000-barrel-per-day plant alone, operating at 85 per cent utilisation, needs roughly 552,500 barrels of crude every day – about 35 per cent of everything Nigeria currently pumps out of the ground. Any slippage in production, a pipeline outage, or a security incident in the Niger Delta is sufficient to reopen the same allocation disputes that produce pricing volatility.

The persistent price hikes have compounded the economic hardship facing Nigerians, already grappling with a broader cost-of-living crisis following the removal of fuel subsidies in 2023. The N15 increase is expected to result in higher pump prices as oil marketers factor in transportation, landing, and other downstream costs, with petrol expected to return to an average of N1,250 per litre. For households reliant on petrol generators for electricity, the situation has become particularly dire. A typical middle-class family running a generator for six hours daily now faces significantly higher energy costs, making alternative power sources increasingly cost-effective. The Dangote Refinery, once hailed as a solution to Nigeria’s fuel import dependency, continues to face structural challenges that prevent it from delivering affordable fuel to Nigerians. The combination of inadequate naira-denominated crude supply, currency volatility, and the need to source crude internationally continues to push prices upward, creating a paradox where Africa’s largest oil producer and its newest refinery cannot shield citizens from high fuel costs.

Dangote Raises Petrol to N1,200/Litre Despite Crude Price Decline – Second Hike in Five Days

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NIWA, LASWA, SIFAX, Dangote Transport Lead Stakeholders for 2026 TCAN Summit

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August 25, 2026

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NIWA, LASWA, SIFAX, Dangote Transport Lead Stakeholders for 2026 TCAN Summit

 

The National Inland Waterways Authority (NIWA), Lagos State Waterways Authority (LASWA), SIFAX Logistics and Dangote Transport are among leading government agencies and private-sector operators that have confirmed participation in the 2026 Transportation Summit of the Transportation Correspondents Association of Nigeria (TCAN).

The summit, scheduled for September 24, 2026, at the Radisson Hotel, Ikeja, Lagos, will bring together policymakers, regulators, industry leaders, transport operators, development partners, academics and other stakeholders to examine how transportation and logistics can be leveraged to accelerate Nigeria’s economic growth.

Themed “Unlocking Nigeria’s Economic Growth Through Transportation Logistics,” the summit is expected to focus on critical issues affecting the efficiency, competitiveness and sustainability of Nigeria’s transportation and logistics ecosystem.

According to the TCAN Chairman, Tola Adenubi, discussions will centre on strategies for improving logistics infrastructure, strengthening policy implementation, enhancing safety and innovation, and promoting sustainable development across the sector.

He said the summit would examine the current state of Nigeria’s transportation logistics architecture, with particular attention to roads, waterways, rail and aviation.

“Participants are expected to identify bottlenecks affecting the seamless movement of cargo and passengers and examine how multimodal transportation integration can contribute to economic expansion,” Adenubi said.

He added that other key areas would include investment opportunities across the logistics and supply-chain ecosystem, digital transformation of the logistics value chain, infrastructure financing and public-private partnership opportunities.

Adenubi said stakeholders would also examine regulatory frameworks needed to optimise the transportation sector and develop policy recommendations capable of improving efficiency and strengthening Nigeria’s global competitiveness.

According to him, the participation of NIWA, LASWA, SIFAX Logistics and Dangote Transport underscores the growing commitment of both government agencies and private-sector operators to finding practical solutions to the challenges confronting Nigeria’s transportation industry.

The summit is also expected to provide a platform for government representatives to present ongoing reforms, infrastructure investments and policy initiatives aimed at improving intermodal connectivity, particularly the integration of waterways with road and rail transportation.

Adenubi said the participation of key government agencies and industry players would provide stakeholders with first-hand insights into the government’s transportation agenda while creating an avenue for meaningful dialogue among policymakers, operators and the media.

The 2026 TCAN Summit will feature keynote presentations from government officials and industry stakeholders, alongside networking sessions designed to strengthen collaboration and partnerships across the transportation and logistics value chain.

Discussions will cover critical challenges and opportunities in road, rail, maritime, aviation and multimodal transportation, with emphasis on how an integrated transport system can improve cargo movement, passenger mobility and economic productivity.

TCAN will also recognise individuals and organisations that have made significant contributions to the development of Nigeria’s transportation industry through its “Champion of Transport Industry Development” compendium.

 

The association said the summit is expected to generate practical recommendations for strengthening Nigeria’s logistics architecture and positioning transportation as a more powerful engine of economic growth.

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