President Bola Tinubu could suffer a dramatic collapse in his Northern support in the 2027 presidential election, securing less than 10 per cent of votes from the region if the poll is free and credible, Convener of the League of Northern Democrats and key promoter of the All-Democratic Alliance (ADA), Dr Umar Ardo, has predicted.

Ardo made the prediction on Monday in an interview on Frontline, a current affairs programme on Eagle 102.5 FM, Ilese-Ijebu, Ogun State, arguing that the outcome would largely reflect how Northern voters assess the Tinubu administration’s performance.

He identified insecurity, worsening poverty, economic hardship and the rising cost of living as major issues likely to influence voting decisions in the region.

According to him, the persistent insecurity affecting communities, farmers, traders and businesses remains one of the administration’s biggest challenges.

“You can solve the issue of insecurity and insurgency in one year,” he said, insisting that the Federal Government could significantly reduce the crisis with the right strategy and sufficient political will.

Ardo also faulted the administration’s economic reforms, particularly the removal of fuel subsidy, questioning whether ordinary Nigerians had experienced corresponding benefits.

“Subsidy removal, is it a benefit?” he asked, arguing that the reforms had eroded purchasing power and made basic necessities increasingly unaffordable.

He said the impact had been particularly severe in Northern Nigeria, where a large proportion of the population is economically vulnerable.

“The economic reform has pushed from the state of poverty to destitution,” he said.

The political commentator also raised concerns about political representation under the Tinubu administration, arguing that the composition of government could shape public perception of its commitment to different regions.

Ardo said Northern voters should not be assumed to be permanently aligned with the voting pattern recorded in 2023, stressing that prevailing economic and security conditions would determine their choices in 2027.

“If a free, fair and credible election is conducted in Nigeria, Tinubu can’t get 10 percent of the Northern part,” he declared.

His prediction puts the spotlight on the opposition’s capacity to exploit any erosion of Tinubu’s Northern support, with former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and other opposition figures potentially positioned to benefit from any major electoral realignment.

Adeleke’s re-election faces tribunal battle as APC, PDP file petitions

The re-election of Osun State Governor Ademola Adeleke has entered a fresh legal battle after the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) filed separate petitions challenging the outcome of the August 15, 2026 Osun governorship election.

The development has shifted the post-election contest from the ballot box to the Osun State Governorship Election Petition Tribunal, where the two petitions were formally displayed at the tribunal secretariat in Osogbo on Monday, September 7.

The display of the petitions marks the formal commencement of the legal process challenging the election that returned Adeleke for a second term.

The tribunal’s Secretary, Pefe Belemore, confirmed that petitions challenging the election outcome had been received and that the required notices had been displayed to begin the legal process.

The APC petition, marked EPT/OS/GOV/01/2026, was filed by the party’s governorship candidate, Asiwaju Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji.

Oyebamiji named Governor Ademola Adeleke, the Accord Party and the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) as respondents in the case.

The PDP also filed a separate petition, marked EPT/OS/GOV/02/2026. The petition was filed by Adebayo Olugbenga Adedamola against Adeleke, INEC and the Accord Party.

The specific grounds and reliefs being sought in the two petitions were not publicly available when the cases were displayed. The filing, however, means that the two political parties have formally taken their challenges to the election outcome before the tribunal.

Adeleke, who contested the election on the platform of the Accord Party, was declared winner after securing 511,067 votes, defeating Oyebamiji of the APC, who polled 444,815 votes.

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The governor therefore won the election with a margin of 66,252 votes.

The 2026 Osun governorship election was closely watched because of the political importance of the state in the South-West and its significance ahead of the 2027 general elections.

Adeleke had previously won the governorship election in 2022 on the platform of the PDP. However, he contested the 2026 election under the Accord Party following his political realignment.

His victory gave him another term in office, but the latest petitions mean that the result will now be subjected to judicial scrutiny.

The tribunal development also follows conflicting reports over whether any petition had been filed within the statutory period for challenging the election.

Earlier reports had indicated that the 21-day window for filing an election petition had expired without a publicly confirmed challenge. The subsequent confirmation that both the APC and PDP had filed petitions has now opened a new legal chapter in the post-election dispute.

The APC petition is particularly significant because Oyebamiji had earlier congratulated Adeleke following the declaration of the result while indicating that any concerns arising from the election would be pursued through lawful and constitutional means.

With the filing of the petition, the APC candidate has now formally taken his challenge to the election tribunal.

The next stage of the process is expected to involve the service of the petitions and other court documents on Adeleke, INEC and the Accord Party.

The respondents will then have an opportunity to respond to the claims contained in the petitions before the matter progresses through the required pre-hearing procedures.

The tribunal will eventually consider the substantive issues raised by the petitioners and the responses presented by the respondents.

The filing of an election petition does not automatically cancel Adeleke’s victory or remove him from office. The governor remains the declared winner of the August 15 election unless a competent court eventually rules otherwise.

The tribunal will therefore determine the matter based on the evidence and legal arguments presented by the parties.

For the APC, the case provides an opportunity to challenge an election in which its candidate finished second with 444,815 votes.

For the PDP, the separate petition adds another dimension to the dispute, particularly because Adeleke previously represented the party before contesting his re-election on the Accord platform.

The legal proceedings could become a significant political development in Osun State as parties begin positioning themselves ahead of the 2027 elections.

However, the immediate focus will remain on the election tribunal and the legal arguments surrounding the August 15 poll.

The display of the petitions marks the beginning of a new phase in the Osun political contest, with the battle now moving from campaign grounds and polling units to the courtroom.

Until the tribunal or a higher court makes a final determination, Ademola Adeleke remains the duly declared governor-elect and winner of the August 15, 2026 Osun governorship election.

The coming proceedings will determine whether the APC and PDP can establish sufficient legal grounds to alter or overturn the result declared by INEC.

Adeleke’s re-election faces tribunal battle as APC, PDP file petitions