CBN Policies, Foreign Inflows Drive Naira to Two-Year Peak - Newstrends
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CBN Policies, Foreign Inflows Drive Naira to Two-Year Peak

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Naira Appreciates at Official Market as Dollar Trades at N1,357.61 Today, August 17

CBN Policies, Foreign Inflows Drive Naira to Two-Year Peak

Nigeria’s naira has extended its recent rally, trading at one of its strongest levels against the U.S. dollar in nearly two years, supported by sustained foreign portfolio inflows, tighter liquidity management, and targeted policy interventions by the monetary authorities.

A macroeconomic update by CardinalStone shows that the local currency has appreciated 6.9 per cent year-to-date at the official foreign exchange market, closing at ₦1,347.78/$—its strongest performance since early 2024. The appreciation reflects improved FX liquidity and growing confidence in the official trading window.

Despite the gains, a gap persists between the official and parallel markets. However, the premium narrowed from about 5.7 per cent to roughly 3.2 per cent following renewed foreign exchange interventions by the Central Bank of Nigeria. According to CardinalStone, the compression of the spread indicates stronger liquidity conditions in the official market, reducing incentives for speculative trading and arbitrage.

As part of efforts to further stabilise the FX market, the CBN recently authorised licensed Bureau de Change (BDC) operators to access foreign exchange from approved dealers at prevailing market rates, subject to a weekly cap of $150,000 per BDC and strict Know-Your-Customer (KYC) requirements. Under the framework, operators must sell unused FX balances within 24 hours, limit cash transactions to 25 per cent of total trades, and settle transactions through licensed financial institutions.

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With 82 licensed BDCs currently operating, CardinalStone estimates that potential FX supply to the segment could rise to about $50 million monthly. Although this remains significantly below pre-pandemic levels, the renewed supply has helped ease retail FX demand pressures and compress the premium in the parallel market.

While foreign inflows have strengthened the naira, analysts caution that continued appreciation could prompt profit-taking by offshore investors. CardinalStone estimates outstanding foreign portfolio investment (FPI) exposure at between $12 billion and $14 billion, noting that Nigeria’s carry trade remains one of the most attractive across emerging and frontier markets.

The firm added that assuming many investors entered the market at around ₦1,500/$, a move toward ₦1,200–₦1,250/$ could deliver over 22 per cent FX gains on currency alone. Such gains could heighten the risk of portfolio rebalancing or exits, particularly as political and election-related uncertainties begin to build.

Ahead of the latest meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee, analysts describe the macroeconomic signals facing policymakers as mixed. Inflation has started to moderate, while short-term interest rates have converged near 22 per cent, about 500 basis points below the 27 per cent Monetary Policy Rate (MPR).

However, the CBN has signalled low tolerance for excess liquidity, intensifying Open Market Operations (OMO) issuances and keeping the Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) attractive to absorb surplus funds and prevent renewed inflationary pressure. Analysts also point to concerns around election-related liquidity, which is expected to intensify in the second half of the year, with over 75 per cent of projected 2026 liquidity expected in the first half.

Looking ahead, CardinalStone expects the CBN to hold the policy rate while adjusting the asymmetric corridor to align SDF rates with OMO yields and preserve the attractiveness of naira assets for foreign investors. Forward market indicators suggest a softer currency path later in the year, with the naira projected to trade within a ₦1,350–₦1,450/$ range in 2026, despite the recent rally.

CBN Policies, Foreign Inflows Drive Naira to Two-Year Peak

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Meta Ends Free WhatsApp Business Replies, Introduces Per-Message Fees

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Meta Ends Free WhatsApp Business Replies, Introduces Per-Message Fees

Meta Ends Free WhatsApp Business Replies, Introduces Per-Message Fees

Banks, fintechs, e-commerce platforms face new operational costs as WhatsApp Business Platform introduces per-message fees for service and utility messages

Meta, the parent company of WhatsApp, will begin charging businesses for customer-service messages sent through the WhatsApp Business Platform from October 1, 2026, ending a free-service period that has been in place since November 2024 and marking a significant shift in how the company monetises business communication on the platform. The company also confirmed that utility messages—transactional communications such as payment confirmations, order updates, account alerts, and delivery notifications—sent within the 24-hour customer-service window will attract charges from the same date. These messages have been free since July 2025, and their transition to a paid model represents the final phase of Meta’s broader move towards per-message pricing for business communications. The changes mean businesses that rely on WhatsApp for customer support, automated communications, and transactional alerts will face additional operational costs that could significantly impact their bottom lines, particularly for organisations that send large volumes of messages daily.

What Is Changing and When is the central question for businesses as the October 1 deadline approaches. Under the current system, when a customer messages a business, a 24-hour customer service window opens. During this period, businesses can respond with free-form service messages and certain utility messages without paying Meta. This arrangement has been in place since November 2024 for service messages and since July 2025 for utility messages. From October 1, 2026, that arrangement ends. Meta will apply per-message charges to two categories of business messages. Service messages are non-template replies sent by businesses after customers initiate conversations. These include personalised responses to customer enquiries, support tickets, and any other free-form replies that are not pre-approved templates. Utility messages are transactional communications that include payment confirmations, account updates, order confirmations, delivery notifications, and other standardised operational updates that businesses send to keep customers informed. The company stated in its developer documentation: “Effective October 1, 2026, Meta will charge on a per-message basis for all service messages, consistent with how Meta charges for template messages. These messages have not been charged since November 1, 2024”. It added: “Effective October 1, 2026, Meta will charge on a per-message basis for utility messages sent in response to users (within an open 24-hour customer service window). These messages have not been charged since July 1, 2025”. The 24-hour customer-service window will remain in place. However, businesses will no longer be able to send free service messages after the window closes, meaning every customer interaction will carry a cost regardless of when it occurs.

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What Businesses Will Pay is a critical consideration for organisations planning their budgets for the fourth quarter of 2026. For Nigerian businesses, a chargeable utility or service message is expected to cost approximately $0.0101 per message**, equivalent to about **₦14** based on an exchange rate of roughly ₦1,340 to the dollar as of August 2026. **Marketing messages**—which include promotional content, offers, and any communication intended to drive sales—carry a significantly higher fee of approximately **$0.062 per message, or about ₦84 at the same exchange rate. These have been chargeable for some time and are not affected by the October change. The charges represent Meta’s fees only and do not necessarily constitute the total cost businesses will incur. Companies using Business Solution Providers or third-party platforms to access the WhatsApp Business Platform may face additional provider charges, which could increase the per-message cost further. Meta has not yet announced the specific rates that will apply from October. Current pricing references indicate that utility-type messages sent to Nigerian numbers cost about $0.0101 per message, but businesses will need to confirm the applicable October rate when Meta publishes its final rate card. The company has advised businesses to monitor its official documentation for the updated pricing schedule.

Who Is Affected by the New Charges is a question that many Nigerian businesses are asking as they assess their exposure to the new fees. The new charges apply exclusively to businesses using the WhatsApp Business Platform, formerly known as the WhatsApp Business API—the infrastructure designed for companies managing customer conversations at scale. This is not the standard WhatsApp Business app that small businesses use on their mobile phones. Affected businesses include banks and fintech companies that use WhatsApp for transaction alerts, account updates, fraud notifications, and customer support. In Nigeria, almost every major commercial bank uses WhatsApp to communicate with customers, making the financial sector one of the most heavily impacted. E-commerce platforms handling order confirmations, delivery updates, payment receipts, and customer enquiries are also affected, and with the growth of online shopping in Nigeria, these businesses send millions of transactional messages monthly. Telecommunications operators providing customer support, service updates, and billing notifications to their subscribers are included, as are logistics and delivery firms sending real-time tracking updates, delivery confirmations, and customer service responses. Large retailers and service providers using the platform for customer communication at scale also fall within the scope of the new charges. The changes will not affect ordinary WhatsApp users or most small businesses using the standard WhatsApp Business app on their mobile phones. These users will continue to enjoy the platform for free, as the charges are targeted at enterprise-level users of the API.

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Financial Impact on High-Volume Businesses is a concern that cannot be overstated, as the cumulative costs could be substantial for organisations that send large volumes of messages. Although the cost per message appears relatively small, the cumulative financial impact could be significant for businesses that send hundreds of thousands or millions of messages each month. For example, a Nigerian fintech sending 500,000 chargeable utility or service messages at $0.0101 per message would incur approximately **$5,050** in Meta messaging fees alone—about ₦6.8 million at an exchange rate of ₦1,340 to the dollar, excluding additional provider charges. A larger bank sending 2 million messages monthly could face monthly Meta fees of approximately **$20,200** or **₦27 million**, before any third-party provider costs are added. These figures represent significant new operational expenses that businesses will need to absorb or pass on to customers. For businesses that also send marketing messages at the higher rate of $0.062 per message, the costs escalate even further. A business sending 100,000 marketing messages monthly would pay approximately $6,200 or ₦8.3 million in Meta fees alone.

Payment Deadline and Service Disruption Risk are urgent issues that businesses must address immediately to avoid interruption in their customer communications. Meta has warned businesses and Solution Providers to ensure they have a valid payment method registered on their accounts before the new charges take effect. Failure to do so could result in service disruption. “For any Solution Provider or directly-integrated businesses that does not have a payment method on file by September 30, 2026, Meta will stop delivering service messages as of when they become charged on October 1, 2026,” the company said. This warning is particularly critical for businesses that rely on WhatsApp for essential customer communications. A disruption in service could mean missed customer enquiries, undelivered transaction alerts, and a breakdown in customer support channels, potentially harming customer relationships and business operations. Businesses are advised to set up their payment methods well in advance of the September 30 deadline to avoid any interruption in service. Solution Providers, who manage WhatsApp Business Platform access for multiple businesses, are also required to ensure their payment methods are active.

Broader Shift in WhatsApp Business Pricing reflects Meta’s strategic direction and the company’s efforts to monetise its platform more effectively. The October change forms part of Meta’s broader move towards a per-message pricing model for business communications. In July 2025, the company shifted away from its previous conversation-based pricing system for business-initiated template messages and adopted per-message billing. The October 2026 update extends that approach by removing free allowances that had remained in place for service messages and qualifying utility messages. From October 1, previously free service messages and utility messages sent within an open customer-service window will become chargeable, completing Meta’s transition to a fully paid model for business communications. This shift reflects Meta’s strategy to monetise the WhatsApp Business Platform more aggressively. WhatsApp has over 2 billion users globally, and businesses have increasingly adopted the platform as a primary channel for customer communication. By introducing per-message fees, Meta is capitalising on this growing adoption while pushing businesses towards more efficient messaging practices. The company has also been expanding its WhatsApp Business Platform features, including the introduction of payments integrationcatalogue sharing, and automated customer service tools. These value-added services are likely to become more important as businesses seek to justify the new messaging costs through improved customer engagement and conversion rates.

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Comparison with Other Messaging Platforms provides context for understanding how WhatsApp’s new pricing fits into the broader communications landscape. The new WhatsApp pricing model brings the platform more in line with competitors such as SMS and email marketing services, which have long charged per-message or per-contact fees. However, WhatsApp’s pricing remains competitive given the platform’s high open rates and engagement levels. For Nigerian businesses, the cost of sending a WhatsApp message at approximately ₦14 compares favourably with SMS rates, which typically range from ₦4 to ₦10 per message depending on volume and provider. However, the higher engagement rates on WhatsApp may justify the additional cost for many businesses. Businesses that send high volumes of messages may also explore alternative channels or negotiate volume discounts with Meta or their Solution Providers to reduce per-message costs.

Implications for Nigerian Businesses and Consumers are far-reaching, as WhatsApp has become deeply embedded in how Nigerian businesses communicate with customers. Commercial banks and fintech companies use the platform to send transaction alerts and account updates, while retailers use it to handle orders and enquiries. The platform’s ubiquity and high engagement rates make it an indispensable tool for customer communication. The new pricing structure means Nigerian businesses that rely heavily on WhatsApp for customer service and transactional communication will need to factor the additional per-message costs into their operating expenses from October. Companies may need to prioritise essential messages by reducing non-critical communications, consolidate messages where possible to reduce the total number sent, explore alternative channels for certain types of communication, review provider arrangements to ensure they are getting competitive rates, consider passing costs to customers through service fees or adjusted pricing, and optimise message content to ensure each message delivers maximum value. For consumers, the new charges could lead to businesses being more selective about which messages they send. Some businesses may reduce the frequency of updates, while others may explore alternative communication channels. However, the importance of WhatsApp as a communication channel means most businesses will continue to use the platform while absorbing or managing the new costs.

What Businesses Should Do Now is a practical guide for organisations preparing for the October 1 deadline. Businesses using the WhatsApp Business Platform should ensure a valid payment method is registered with Meta or their Solution Provider by September 30 to avoid service disruption. This is the most critical step, as failure to do so will result in Meta stopping service message delivery. Businesses should also review current messaging volumes to understand the potential financial impact of the new charges. Companies should analyse their monthly service and utility message volumes and calculate the projected costs at the expected per-message rates. Exploring optimisation strategies to reduce unnecessary messages is another important step, and this could include consolidating multiple notifications into single messages or reducing non-essential communications. Negotiating with Solution Providers to secure the best possible rates and terms is also advisable, as businesses using third-party platforms may be able to negotiate volume discounts or bundled pricing. Monitoring Meta’s official communications for the final rate card and any additional guidance on the new pricing structure is essential, as is considering alternative communication channels for non-essential messages, such as email or SMS, which may offer more cost-effective options for certain types of communication.

Meta Ends Free WhatsApp Business Replies, Introduces Per-Message Fees

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Petrol price heads towards N1,500 per litre despite falling crude oil prices

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Petrol price heads towards N1,500 per litre despite falling crude oil prices

Petrol price heads towards N1,500 per litre despite falling crude oil prices

The price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), popularly known as petrol, is heading towards N1,500 per litre as fresh increases by refiners, depots and filling-station operators push pump prices higher despite a decline in international crude oil prices.

The latest increase saw major downstream player MRS raise its retail price in Lagos and surrounding areas from N1,205 to N1,310 per litre, representing an increase of N105 per litre.

Checks also showed that other marketers adjusted their pump prices to between N1,315 and above N1,400 per litre, further narrowing the gap with the N1,500 mark.

The development came at a time when international crude oil prices moved in the opposite direction, with crude falling from about $92 per barrel to around $87.31 per barrel.

Brent crude was quoted at about $88.10 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at approximately $83.40 per barrel.

However, the decline in international crude prices has not translated into lower petrol prices in Nigeria, with domestic depot and retail prices continuing to rise.

Nigeria’s domestic petrol depot prices remained elevated, reaching as high as N1,217 per litre in some locations on Friday, August 28, 2026.

Warri recorded the highest monitored PMS price at N1,217 per litre, followed by Port Harcourt at N1,214, Calabar at N1,204 and Lagos at N1,202 per litre.

The lowest reported PMS price was N1,203 per litre, recorded at Mainland and Soroman depots in Calabar.

In Warri, Liquid Bulk sold petrol at N1,215 per litre, Masters at N1,210, Matrix at N1,217, Sigmund at N1,215 and T.S.L at N1,215 per litre.

In Lagos, Aiteo and Dangote depots were both listed at N1,200 per litre.

The situation changed further on Saturday, August 29, when Dangote Petroleum Refinery increased its petrol gantry price to N1,265 per litre.

The latest adjustment represents another increase in the refinery’s petrol price within a short period and could put additional pressure on the wholesale and retail markets.

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The refinery had earlier raised its gantry price from N1,165 to N1,185 per litre before increasing it to N1,200 per litre. The latest adjustment therefore represents a significant upward movement in the cost of locally refined petrol.

The repeated price adjustments have become a major factor in the current movement of petrol prices, particularly because Dangote Refinery has emerged as one of the largest suppliers of locally refined petroleum products in Nigeria.

The increase in the refinery’s price means marketers buying directly from the facility may have to pay more for their products, with the additional cost potentially reflected in depot and filling-station prices.

The development also demonstrates why changes in international crude prices do not immediately translate into corresponding changes in Nigerian pump prices.

Although crude oil remains the major raw material for petrol production, several other factors influence the final price paid by consumers.

These include the cost of crude supplied to refineries, refining margins, product availability, exchange rates, transportation, marine logistics, storage and depot charges, financing costs, taxes, distribution expenses and marketers’ margins.

The structure of Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market has also changed significantly since the expansion of domestic refining capacity.

Locally refined petrol is now competing with imported products, while marketers have more than one source from which to obtain PMS.

This competition can influence prices depending on the cost at which each supplier makes its product available, the availability of supply and the cost of transporting the product to different parts of the country.

The latest developments have also raised concerns about the relationship between domestic refining and petrol imports.

Despite increased domestic refining capacity, imported petrol remains part of Nigeria’s supply mix. Changes in import volumes can affect competition and the amount of product available to marketers.

A sustained increase in imports could put pressure on local refiners, while stronger domestic production and competition among suppliers could potentially moderate prices if supply becomes more readily available.

For now, however, the direction of the market remains upward.

The widening gap between international crude prices and domestic petrol prices suggests that the Nigerian downstream market is increasingly being determined by local supply and demand conditions rather than crude oil benchmarks alone.

For motorists, the immediate concern is the impact of higher pump prices on transportation costs.

An increase in petrol prices generally raises the cost of operating vehicles, commercial transport and logistics services. This can subsequently affect the prices of food, agricultural produce, manufactured goods and other commodities moved by road.

Businesses that rely on petrol-powered vehicles and generators could also face higher operating costs, potentially adding to the pressure on the prices of goods and services.

The latest increase therefore has implications beyond the filling station, particularly for households already dealing with elevated living expenses.

If depot and refinery prices remain at their current levels, marketers may continue reviewing their pump prices to protect their margins.

However, the N1,500 per litre threshold should not yet be interpreted as a uniform nationwide pump price. Petrol prices continue to vary according to location, marketer, supply source, transportation costs and prevailing market conditions.

Some filling stations may therefore remain below N1,500 per litre, while others could approach or exceed the threshold depending on their acquisition and operating costs.

The direction of petrol prices in the coming weeks will likely depend on several factors, including international crude prices, domestic crude supply, refinery output, imported-product volumes, exchange-rate movements, depot prices and competition among petroleum suppliers.

For Nigerian consumers, the key question is whether increased domestic refining capacity will eventually translate into more stable and affordable petrol prices.

For now, however, the latest increases indicate that petrol prices are moving closer to N1,500 per litre, even as international crude oil prices have fallen from their recent highs.

Petrol price heads towards N1,500 per litre despite falling crude oil prices

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Dangote Refinery Threatens to Export Petrol as Import Surge Disrupts Domestic Market

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Dangote Refinery Threatens to Export Petrol as Import Surge Disrupts Domestic Market

Dangote Refinery Threatens to Export Petrol as Import Surge Disrupts Domestic Market

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has warned that it may increase petrol exports as rising imports create uncertainty over domestic demand, making production and inventory planning increasingly difficult. The company said imported Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) accounted for approximately 43 per cent of fuel supplied into the Nigerian market in July, despite its capacity to meet and exceed domestic requirements. The refinery said the continued issuance of petroleum product import licences had created uncertainty in demand planning and inventory management, forcing it to reconsider how much petrol it should keep in stock for the domestic market. According to the company, it has consistently maintained sufficient inventory and reserved product volumes to guarantee steady supply since commencing operations, requiring significant investments in storage, logistics and working capital.

The company said the lack of transparency over the volume of imported petrol expected into the country was making it difficult to plan production and inventory efficiently. “As a responsible energy provider, we have always endeavoured to keep adequate reserves to satisfy local demand at all times. However, in an environment where significant volumes of imported PMS continue to enter the market through licences issued by the regulator, and where there is limited visibility on future import volumes, it becomes commercially unsustainable to continue holding excess inventory indefinitely,” the refinery said in a statement. The refinery explained that maintaining large stock positions without clear visibility into import volumes imposes substantial carrying costs and ultimately undermines efficient market operations.

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The refinery said surplus products that were not immediately absorbed by the domestic market would have to be exported to regional and international markets. It stressed that the development should not be interpreted as a withdrawal from the Nigerian market, insisting that it remained committed to ensuring adequate fuel supply across the country. “Consequently, DPRP’s export volumes have increased in recent months, not because local demand cannot be met, but because excess inventory generated by market uncertainty must be evacuated to avoid unnecessary storage and financing costs,” it emphasised. The company said exports had become necessary to avoid unnecessary storage and financing costs associated with holding excess petrol stocks. It mentioned that it remained ready and able to meet and surpass Nigeria’s petroleum product requirements, while continuing to invest in reliable supply.

Official data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) shows how quickly Nigeria’s petrol supply balance has shifted. In May, imported petrol averaged just 5.9 million litres per day, accounting for about 12 per cent of total supply, while domestic sources provided 41.5 million litres per day. The balance shifted dramatically in June. Imports jumped to 18.1 million litres per day—an increase of more than 200 per cent from May—while domestic supply dropped to 32.5 million litres per day. By July, imports had risen further to 19.7 million litres per day as domestic supply declined again to 25.8 million litres per day. The shift marked a reversal from earlier in the year when Nigeria appeared to be moving rapidly towards eliminating petrol imports. Regulators stopped issuing petrol import licences in February after determining that domestic production was sufficient to meet demand.

The dispute over import licences has escalated into legal action. The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has filed a lawsuit against the Federal Government at the Federal High Court in Lagos, challenging the issuance and renewal of fuel import licences by the NMDPRA. The refinery argues that such approvals violate provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), which permits imports only when domestic production is insufficient. It also claims the licences breach an earlier court order directing parties to maintain the status quo. The licences were granted to six marketers—including NIPCO, AA Rano, Matrix, Shafa, Pinnacle, and Bono—covering the importation of between 600,000 and 720,000 metric tonnes of petrol. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) has dismissed Dangote’s assertions, claiming that under the PIA, regulators have the discretion to issue import licences to ensure supply security. It has further accused the refinery of attempting to monopolise the market.

The dispute comes at a particularly significant moment for Nigeria’s petroleum industry. Just days before Dangote’s latest statement, the US Energy Information Administration said Nigeria’s seaborne petroleum product exports had increased more than sevenfold since 2023, driven largely by production from the Dangote refinery. Nigeria exported an average of 350,000 barrels of petroleum products per day during the second quarter of 2026, compared with just 46,000 barrels per day in 2023. At the same time, Nigeria’s seaborne petroleum product imports have fallen substantially from nearly 400,000 barrels per day in 2023 to less than 130,000 barrels per day in the second quarter of this year. The refinery, with a nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, is expected to play a central role in Nigeria’s energy security and foreign exchange earnings as global fuel trade patterns shift amid geopolitical tensions.

The refinery called for greater transparency, improved market coordination, and policies that support local refining, enhance energy security, conserve foreign exchange, and maximise the economic benefits of Nigeria’s investments in domestic refining capacity. It also warned that any future supply shortfalls resulting from market distortions caused by excessive imports and the inability of local refiners to accurately forecast demand should not be blamed on Dangote Refinery.

Dangote Refinery Threatens to Export Petrol as Import Surge Disrupts Domestic Market

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