15 northern states may collapse if fuel subsidy returns, OAU professor warns Atiku

Professor Tunji Ogunyemi of Obafemi Awolowo University (OAU), Ile-Ife, has warned that restoring petrol subsidy could severely affect Nigeria’s public finances and leave more than 15 states in northern Nigeria facing financial difficulties within three months.

Ogunyemi, an economic historian, lawyer and public affairs analyst, made the claim while reacting to the proposal by Atiku Abubakar, the presidential candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), to restore subsidy if elected president in 2027.

The university don described Atiku’s position as “playing to the gallery”, arguing that a return to the subsidy regime could reduce revenue accruing to the Federation Account, on which most state governments depend for their monthly allocations.

Ogunyemi made the remarks during Open Forum 360, a podcast hosted by Dare Adekanmbi.

According to the professor, the consequences of reversing the fuel subsidy removal policy would go beyond petrol prices, as lower government revenue could reduce the funds available for distribution to the Federal Government, states and local governments.

He described the Federation Account as the “jugular” of more than 30 states, claiming that only about four states have the financial capacity to survive without allocations from the account.

“So if you now say reduce the accrual from account, I tell you more than about 15 states in the north will collapse. They will collapse within three months,” Ogunyemi said.

He argued that a reduction in federal allocations could return many states to a period of difficulty in meeting salary and pension obligations, while leaving little money for infrastructure and other capital projects.

“The second is that states will return to a regime of incapacity to pay salaries, let alone pensions. That is consumption expenditure,” he said.

“You reduce the revenue in that respect, you will see a situation in which government will not be able to support its minimum expenditure, let alone go for capital expenditure.”

Ogunyemi also identified debt servicing as another potential consequence of a significant reduction in government revenue.

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According to him, Nigeria could face difficulties meeting its debt obligations if the country’s revenue position deteriorates substantially.

“The fourth and the final one is that Nigeria will not be able to meet its debt obligations,” he said.

Speaking specifically about Atiku Abubakar’s subsidy proposal, Ogunyemi said the former vice-president needed to provide greater clarity about how the policy would be financed and its potential implications for government revenue.

“I think it is playing to the gallery, with due respect to him. He should be a little less opaque about his policy,” he said.

The professor argued that political leaders should consider the broader fiscal consequences of policies designed to attract public support ahead of elections.

“You don’t want to get political support through votes or more votes by wanting to cut the jugular of your country,” Ogunyemi added.

Atiku’s proposal has become part of the wider 2027 presidential election debate, particularly amid renewed political arguments over the economic consequences of the petrol subsidy removal introduced in 2023.

Supporters of subsidy restoration argue that some form of government intervention could reduce the burden of high petrol prices on households and businesses, while opponents warn that subsidising petroleum products could place additional pressure on government finances.

Ogunyemi identified Lagos, Delta and Rivers as examples of states that could cope without relying heavily on monthly allocations from the Federation Account.

He, however, cited Taraba State as an example of a state that remains highly dependent on federal allocations to meet its financial obligations.

His argument reflects the broader debate over fiscal federalism in Nigeria, with analysts and policy experts frequently calling for greater financial independence for state governments through stronger internally generated revenue.

Many Nigerian states remain heavily reliant on federal transfers, making changes in national revenue particularly significant for their ability to fund salaries, pensions, infrastructure and other public services.

The controversy comes as the debate over petrol subsidy in Nigeria continues to dominate economic and political discussions.

The subsidy was removed in 2023, leading to a sharp increase in petrol prices and contributing to higher transportation and living costs. The Federal Government has maintained that ending the subsidy was necessary to reduce the financial burden on the government and redirect resources to other areas.

Critics of the policy have continued to argue that Nigerians require stronger measures to cushion the impact of higher energy costs.

Atiku has positioned his proposal within this debate, advocating a return to some form of subsidy, while Ogunyemi has warned that the fiscal implications should not be overlooked.

The professor’s claim that more than 15 northern states would “collapse” within three months is his assessment of the potential consequences of reduced Federation Account revenue and should not be treated as an independently established forecast.

The wider issue, however, remains central to Nigeria’s economic debate: how to provide affordable energy for citizens while ensuring sustainable government revenue, stronger state finances and the ability to meet public-sector obligations.

15 northern states may collapse if fuel subsidy returns, OAU professor warns Atiku

‘It’s a lie’ – Wike’s aide challenges Peter Obi’s ‘I don’t give shishi’ claim

Senior Special Assistant on Public Communications and Social Media to the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nyesom Wike, Lere Olayinka, has challenged a claim attributed to Peter Obi that he does not give money to politicians or delegates during election campaigns.

Olayinka described the claim as untrue, alleging that Obi gave money to delegates in Ekiti State when he was still a member of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and seeking the party’s presidential ticket.

The FCT minister’s aide made the allegation during an interview on AIT’s Democracy Today, where he discussed political campaigns, election spending and the realities of seeking elective office in Nigeria.

Olayinka, who said he previously contested for the House of Representatives and had served as a political delegate, said he personally witnessed Obi allegedly giving money to delegates during the period when the former Anambra State governor was still in the PDP.

“They said that the candidate of the NDC, Peter Obi, does not give ‘shishi,’ it’s a lie. I was a delegate in Ekiti when he was in PDP before going to the Labour Party, he came to Ekiti and dropped money for delegates,” Olayinka said.

The allegation directly challenges the image Obi has cultivated among supporters as a politician who campaigns against excessive political spending and promotes a more frugal approach to politics and governance.

Obi left the PDP in May 2022 and subsequently joined the Labour Party, under which he contested the 2023 presidential election. He is now associated with the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

Olayinka argued that financial resources remain a major component of political contests, particularly during party primaries and election campaigns.

According to him, politicians require money to mobilise supporters, organise campaigns, secure party structures and compete with opponents.

He said political candidates who refuse to deploy financial resources could find themselves at a disadvantage against better-funded contenders.

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“As a politician or a businessman, if your competitor wins, what happens to you? If you are seeking a contract from somewhere and your competitor wins, what happens to you? You will lose out,” Olayinka said.

He also argued that politicians spend money because gaining political power is necessary for candidates who intend to implement their programmes after winning elections.

“You want to serve me, for instance, why do politicians spend money including the US? Don’t politicians spend money on campaigns? They spend money to seek election,” he said.

Olayinka’s comments come amid intensifying political exchanges ahead of the 2027 general election, with supporters of President Bola Tinubu and opposition politicians increasingly debating the viability, credibility and electoral strength of potential challengers.

The FCT minister’s aide has recently stepped up his criticism of Obi and other opposition figures, questioning whether some of the presidential candidates preparing for the 2027 election have sufficient political structures to win a nationwide contest.

In a recent interview with Arise News, Olayinka argued that not all of the presidential candidates preparing for the 2027 election were necessarily contesting with the expectation of winning.

He specifically questioned the electoral strength of the NDC, saying the party lacked sufficient grassroots structures in several states. He argued that a presidential candidate needs a strong organisation at the state, local government and polling-unit levels to effectively compete in a national election. (Arise News)

Olayinka also pointed to the importance of having candidates contesting other elective positions, arguing that the absence of a strong spread of governorship and legislative candidates could make it more difficult for a presidential party to establish an effective election-day structure.

His latest comments therefore form part of a broader political argument over whether Obi and the NDC can build enough nationwide structures to challenge the established political parties in 2027.

Meanwhile, the controversy involving Olayinka has extended beyond his criticism of Obi to questions about the conduct of political interviews.

A separate confrontation reportedly occurred between Olayinka and Arise News presenter Rufai Oseni during a television interview, with the exchange ending abruptly after Olayinka indicated that he would not respond to questions from the presenter.

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The incident attracted reactions from commentators, including Dr Sam Amadi, Director of the Abuja School of Social and Political Thought, who called for greater professionalism from both journalists and public officials during political interviews.

Amadi argued that public officials who accept invitations to appear on television programmes should be prepared to answer legitimate questions, while journalists should also conduct interviews in a professional manner and avoid turning political discussions into personal confrontations.

He said the media should focus on obtaining useful information for the public rather than allowing interviews to degenerate into shouting matches.

Amadi also argued that the quality of political discourse ahead of the 2027 elections should extend beyond personality clashes between politicians and journalists.

According to him, issues such as Nigeria’s economy, hunger, insecurity, healthcare, health insurance and the rule of law should receive greater attention as political parties and candidates seek voters’ support.

He said political actors would respond to the issues that voters, the media and influential institutions place at the centre of public debate.

The political scientist further stressed that voters should assess presidential candidates not only on their campaign promises but also on their integrity, credibility and past conduct.

The latest exchange between Olayinka and Obi’s camp comes as political realignments ahead of 2027 continue to reshape Nigeria’s opposition landscape.

Obi’s emergence as a leading opposition figure has generated sustained debate among supporters and critics over his political record, campaign strategy, financial practices and ability to build a nationwide political structure.

For now, Olayinka’s allegation that Obi gave money to delegates in Ekiti remains a claim made by the Wike aide. No independent evidence establishing the alleged payment was presented in the reports reviewed, and Obi or his representatives have not, in the available reports, publicly responded to the specific allegation.

The dispute nevertheless highlights one of the recurring issues likely to dominate the 2027 political campaign: the role of money, political structures, grassroots mobilisation and personal credibility in determining the outcome of Nigeria’s presidential election.

‘It’s a lie’ – Wike’s aide challenges Peter Obi’s ‘I don’t give shishi’ claim

2027: Tinubu’ll ‘eat Obi like biscuits’ without coalition — Okonkwo

Spokesperson for the Atiku Abubakar presidential campaign, Kenneth Okonkwo, has warned that President Bola Tinubu could defeat former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi in the 2027 presidential election if the opposition fails to unite behind a common platform and candidate.

Okonkwo said an opposition coalition remains the most realistic route to defeating Tinubu, arguing that individual opposition candidates would struggle to overcome the political strength of the incumbent if they contest the election separately.

He made the remarks during an interview with Ibeju Upgrade Media, while reacting to the emerging political alignments ahead of the 2027 election and the possibility of Obi challenging Tinubu.

Okonkwo was particularly dismissive of Obi’s chances of defeating Tinubu without a wider opposition alliance, including the possibility of Obi contesting alongside former Kano State Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso.

“Coalition is the only way out,” Okonkwo said, stressing the need for opposition parties and political actors to consolidate their support instead of entering the presidential contest separately.

He argued that a divided opposition could split the votes of Nigerians seeking an alternative to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and consequently give Tinubu an advantage at the polls.

Okonkwo was emphatic in his assessment of an Obi-Tinubu contest without a broader coalition.

“So, if Peter Obi goes against Tinubu alone, Tinubu will eat him like biscuits,” he said.

The former Labour Party chieftain also questioned whether Obi could secure sufficient support in northern Nigeria, particularly in Kano State, to mount a serious challenge against Tinubu without the backing of other major opposition blocs.

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“Will Kano people accept Peter Obi? In 2023, when we had the opportunity, they did not accept him. In 2027, they will not accept him,” Okonkwo said.

His criticism also extended to Kwankwaso, whose political influence in Kano and the wider North-West has made him an important figure in discussions about opposition strategy ahead of 2027.

Kwankwaso was a major contender in the 2023 presidential election and has maintained a strong political base in Kano. His potential partnership with Obi has therefore attracted considerable attention among opposition supporters and political observers.

Okonkwo, however, dismissed the suggestion that Kwankwaso would significantly strengthen an Obi-led ticket.

“Kwankwaso has nothing to contribute to the ticket. Even in Kano, Kwankwaso has lost,” he said.

The comments come amid renewed efforts to construct a united opposition coalition capable of challenging the APC and Tinubu in the 2027 presidential election.

The debate over opposition unity has become one of the defining issues in Nigeria’s political landscape as major opposition politicians pursue different political strategies ahead of the election.

The G100 Opposition Coalition, led by former APC chieftain Salihu Lukman, has been pushing for opposition parties and political actors to work together and produce a common candidate capable of challenging the ruling party.

The coalition initiative is built around the argument that the opposition could improve its chances of defeating Tinubu by pooling its political structures, regional support bases and voters behind a single presidential candidate.

However, attempts to achieve such unity have faced significant challenges.

The major obstacle has been the presidential ambitions of leading opposition figures, including Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, as well as disagreements over which political platform should provide the structure for a possible coalition.

Atiku is operating under the African Democratic Congress (ADC), while Obi has emerged as the presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC).

Kwankwaso is expected to serve as Obi’s running mate on the NDC ticket, creating a political arrangement that has further complicated the search for a single opposition candidate.

The development has effectively created competing opposition camps ahead of the 2027 election, with Atiku and Obi pursuing separate presidential platforms while coalition advocates continue efforts to bring the different blocs together.

The current situation has revived memories of the 2023 presidential election, when the opposition vote was divided among several major candidates.

Tinubu won the 2023 election with 8,794,726 votes, while Atiku received 6,984,520 votes and Obi polled 6,101,533 votes. Kwankwaso also secured more than one million votes.

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The figures have frequently been used by advocates of opposition unity to argue that a united opposition could pose a stronger challenge to the APC.

However, the combined votes of opposition candidates cannot automatically be treated as a prediction of what would happen if they contested the next election on a single ticket.

Voting patterns can change significantly between elections, while factors such as geographical distribution, voter turnout, party structures, campaign organisation and candidate popularity can determine the outcome.

Nigeria’s presidential election also requires a candidate to secure the highest number of votes while meeting the constitutional requirement for a spread of support across the states.

Nevertheless, the 2023 result remains a major reference point in the debate over whether the opposition should unite behind one candidate.

Obi attracted significant support in parts of southern Nigeria and among younger and urban voters, while Atiku maintained considerable support across several northern states.

Kwankwaso, meanwhile, demonstrated substantial strength in Kano and parts of the North-West.

Supporters of an opposition coalition believe combining these different voter bases could create a formidable national political force.

But the difficulty lies in determining which candidate would lead such an alliance and how the different political interests would be accommodated.

The G100 initiative has attempted to address this problem by encouraging opposition politicians to negotiate rather than allowing individual presidential ambitions to derail the possibility of a common front.

The process, however, remains complicated by the fact that Atiku and Obi already have established political structures and presidential tickets.

The ADC has also maintained that Atiku has the capacity to defeat Tinubu, with or without a broader coalition, although the party has expressed support for cooperation among opposition forces.

This position differs from the argument advanced by Okonkwo, who insists that the opposition’s best chance lies in presenting a united front.

His comments are particularly notable because of his political history with Obi.

Okonkwo was previously associated with Obi during his Labour Party presidential campaign but later joined Atiku’s political camp and became a spokesperson for the former vice-president’s presidential campaign.

His latest remarks therefore represent a significant criticism of his former political ally as the 2027 contest begins to take shape.

Okonkwo has also previously questioned Obi’s capacity to lead Nigeria and tackle the country’s economic and developmental challenges.

His latest intervention places the issue of opposition unity at the centre of his argument, rather than focusing solely on the individual strengths of the presidential contenders.

The political calculations surrounding the 2027 election have become increasingly complicated as the major opposition camps attempt to determine whether they can work together or must compete separately.

For the APC and Tinubu, a divided opposition could potentially make the presidential contest less difficult by preventing a single challenger from consolidating votes from different regions and political constituencies.

For opposition parties, the challenge is to determine whether their combined strength would be greater under a single candidate than under separate presidential campaigns.

The question is particularly important for Obi and Atiku, whose supporters have continued to debate which of the two politicians has the stronger national appeal and greater capacity to challenge Tinubu.

The emergence of the Obi-Kwankwaso ticket has added another layer to that debate.

While supporters believe the combination could strengthen Obi’s reach into northern Nigeria, critics such as Okonkwo argue that it would not be enough to defeat the incumbent without a broader alliance.

The G100 coalition is therefore faced with the difficult task of persuading the different opposition camps to put aside competing presidential ambitions and agree on a strategy that can command nationwide support.

Whether that happens before the 2027 election remains uncertain.

For now, Atiku and Obi remain on separate political platforms, while Tinubu continues to prepare for his re-election campaign.

Okonkwo’s “eat Obi like biscuits” remark has added a colourful dimension to the increasingly intense political debate, but beneath the phrase lies a much bigger question confronting Nigeria’s opposition: whether its leading political forces can unite behind one candidate or risk dividing their support in another presidential contest.

As political negotiations continue, the eventual structure of the opposition and the choice of presidential candidates could play a major role in determining the shape of the 2027 presidential election.

2027: Tinubu’ll ‘eat Obi like biscuits’ without coalition — Okonkwo