IMF upgrades Nigeria’s economic growth forecast to 3.4%

Similarly, the IMF raised its forecast for the country’s economic growth for 2026 to 3.2 per cent, representing 0.5 percentage points from 2.7 per cent in April.

The IMF announced the new forecast in its World Economic Outlook, WEO, July 2025 edition, which also showed an upward review of the forecast for global economic growth to 3.0 per cent for 2025 and 3.1 percent for 2026.

The new forecast for global economic growth for 2025 represents an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared to the reference forecast in the April 2025 WEO, while the outlook for 2026 is up by 0.1 percentage points.

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In the same vein, the IMF raised its forecast for the Sub-Saharan African region to 4.0 per cent for 2025 and 4.3 per cent for 2026, representing 0.2 percentage points and 0.1 percentage points increase from 3.8 per cent and 4.2 per cent, respectively, projected in the April 2025 WEO.

“Growth is expected to be relatively stable in 2025 in sub-Saharan Africa at 4.0 per cent, before picking up to 4.3 per cent in 2026,” the IMF said.

Commenting on the new forecast for Nigeria’s economic growth, Tunde Abidoye, Head of Equity Research, FBNQuest Merchant Bank, said: “The IMF’s forecast of 3.4% is precisely in line with our in-house view based on the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics, NBS data points.

“I believe the upward revision likely reflects improved oil production and the strong performance of services. That said, the range-bound single-digit growth rate forecast still portends cautious optimism, as the growth is still too modest to tackle the poverty problem.”