Imported Petrol 12% Cheaper Than Dangote Fuel – World Bank

Imported Petrol 12% Cheaper Than Dangote Fuel - World Bank

Imported Petrol 12% Cheaper Than Dangote Fuel – World Bank

The World Bank has revealed that imported Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) is currently about 12 per cent cheaper than petrol supplied by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, raising concerns over pricing distortions and rising inflationary pressures in Nigeria’s economy.

The disclosure was contained in the Bank’s latest Nigeria Development Update, which highlighted widening gaps between import parity prices and locally refined fuel costs amid volatile global oil market conditions. According to the report, Dangote refinery’s ex-depot price stood at about ₦1,275 per litre as of March 2026, compared to an estimated ₦1,122 per litre for imported petrol, creating a significant price advantage for imports.

Despite the report, Dangote refinery has denied any recent increase in petrol prices, maintaining that its current pricing structure remains unchanged. A source within the company stated that the gantry price is fixed at ₦1,200 per litre, while the coastal price stands at ₦1,153 per litre, stressing that no new pricing has been introduced. The refinery reiterated its commitment to ensuring steady fuel supply across Nigeria and other African markets, positioning itself as a stabilising force in the downstream sector.

The World Bank noted that the price disparity persists even as Dangote refinery has become a dominant supplier of petrol in Nigeria, particularly following the halt in fuel import licences earlier in 2026. According to analysts, this situation reflects structural inefficiencies in the domestic fuel market, including foreign exchange pressures, logistics costs, and crude pricing mechanisms.

The report warned that rising global crude oil prices—driven by geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East—could worsen inflationary pressures if sustained. It projected that an increase in oil prices to about $80 per barrel could add roughly 3.1 percentage points to Nigeria’s headline inflation, assuming full pass-through to domestic fuel prices.

The Bank explained that energy costs serve as a major inflation transmission channel, with transport alone accounting for about 10.1 per cent of Nigeria’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). Higher fuel prices, therefore, have a multiplier effect, increasing costs across transportation, food distribution, and other sectors of the economy.

Beyond fuel, the report highlighted additional risks from rising global food and fertiliser prices, which are also being influenced by the same geopolitical disruptions affecting oil markets. This combination, the Bank warned, could further strain household incomes and worsen cost-of-living pressures.

Speaking during the report presentation in Abuja, the World Bank Country Director for Nigeria, Mathew Verghis, acknowledged improvements in Nigeria’s macroeconomic outlook through 2025 and early 2026, driven by ongoing reforms. However, he cautioned that external shocks remain a major threat to price stability, particularly through rising energy and shipping costs.

Similarly, the World Bank’s Lead Economist for Nigeria, Fiseha Haile, noted that increases in petrol prices have already filtered through transport and logistics chains, amplifying cost pressures across multiple sectors. He also pointed to ongoing vulnerabilities, including volatile global financing conditions and weaker capital inflows, despite improvements in Nigeria’s external reserves and exchange rate reforms.

Meanwhile, global oil prices have recently declined sharply following a ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran, easing immediate supply concerns. Benchmark Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate crude recorded their steepest one-day drops since 2020, falling to around $93 per barrel after the announcement by Donald Trump that both countries had agreed to a temporary truce and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Despite this easing, the World Bank maintained that Nigeria’s economy remains highly exposed to global oil market volatility, warning that sustained uncertainties could continue to pressure inflation, fuel prices, and household welfare in the months ahead.