RealClearPolitics shows Harris ahead by the smallest margin of the six polls, placing her .5 percentage points ahead of Trump—47.6 percent to 47.1 percent. With a margin of 1 percentage point, TheNew York Times aggregate poll shows Harris at 48 percent and Trump at 47 percent.
When independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is factored in, the gap between the Democratic and Republican candidates widens to 2 percentage points, with Harris at 45 percent, Trump at 43 percent, and Kennedy at 5 percent. Race to the WH’s aggregate shows Harris leading by 1.6 percentage points, 48.3 percent to Trump’s 46.7 percent.
In a race with third-party candidates, both Democratic and Republican candidates lose votes, with Harris garnering 45.7 percent, Trump 43.5 percent, Kennedy 5.4 percent, and Cornel West at .5 percent. FiveThirtyEight puts Harris ahead by 2 percentage points, 45.6 percent to Trump’s 43.5 percent, with Kennedy garnering 5.1 percent of the vote.
Similarly, 270toWin also shows a 2-percentage point margin, showing Harris garnering 47.5 percent of the vote and Trump 45.5 percent.
Kamala Harris ahead of Donald Trump in six different polls