Naira Could Trade Below ₦1,000/$ With Dangote Refinery at Full Capacity — Otedola

Billionaire businessman Femi Otedola

Naira Could Trade Below ₦1,000/$ With Dangote Refinery at Full Capacity — Otedola

Billionaire businessman Femi Otedola has projected that the naira could strengthen to trade below ₦1,000 per US dollar as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery achieves full operational capacity. The prediction comes as Nigeria anticipates a major boost in domestic fuel production, potentially reducing import dependence and easing pressure on the foreign exchange market.

Otedola made the projection in a post on X, congratulating Aliko Dangote on the refinery reaching its designed processing capacity of 650,000 barrels per day (bpd). He described the milestone as a historic moment for Nigeria’s energy sector, saying it could positively impact the naira exchange rate, foreign reserves, and overall economic stability.

According to Otedola, the refinery’s capacity to produce up to 75 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) daily positions Nigeria to meet domestic fuel demand and even generate surplus for export. He highlighted that this would reduce the country’s reliance on imported petroleum products, which historically exerted heavy pressure on the naira and foreign exchange resources.

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“With domestic refining now firmly underway after decades of reliance on imports, pressure on the foreign exchange market should ease significantly, potentially pushing the naira below ₦1,000/$ before year-end,” Otedola said. He also noted that the EFCC and monetary authorities’ support in maintaining a conducive economic environment would complement these gains.

The Dangote Refinery, located in the Lekki Free Zone, Lagos, is Africa’s largest single-train refinery. Experts say that reaching full production will conserve billions of dollars previously spent on importing refined petroleum products and strengthen Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves. Plans are also underway to expand refining capacity to 1.4 million bpd, with increased production of petrochemicals like polypropylene and linear alkyl benzene, further reducing industrial import dependence.

Economic analysts have welcomed the refinery’s milestone but caution that naira stability will still depend on broader macroeconomic reforms, oil prices, foreign capital inflows, and Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) policies. Nevertheless, Otedola’s projection reflects renewed optimism that domestic refining capacity could be a turning point for the Nigerian economy, energy security, and the foreign exchange market.