Nigerians May Pay More for Fuel as Global Oil Prices Surge Above $100 Per Barrel

Nigerians May Pay More for Fuel as Global Oil Prices Surge Above $100 Per Barrel

Nigerians face the prospect of higher petrol prices, increased transport fares, and renewed inflationary pressure as global crude oil prices have surged above $100 per barrel for the first time since May amid escalating conflict in the Middle East.

The surge represents about a 6.77 per cent increase on Thursday following several days of gains as the United States stepped up military strikes against Iran. Brent crude, the international benchmark against which Nigeria’s oil is priced, climbed above $100 per barrel on Thursday, July 23, 2026, reaching $100.69 after surging more than seven per cent in a single day. By 4:40 p.m. WAT, Brent crude had risen 7.43 per cent to $101.10 per barrel, while U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 6.77 per cent to trade at $92.71 per barrel.

The latest price rally has been driven by threats to two of the world’s most strategic shipping routes: the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes, and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea. The Iran-aligned Houthi militia in Yemen has opened a new front by targeting vessels carrying Saudi oil in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait after declaring a naval blockade on shipments from Saudi Arabia. The Houthi group claimed to have attacked two Saudi oil tankers, identified as ENCELIA and LAYLA, using ballistic and cruise missiles as well as drones. The attacks have lifted global benchmark prices by about 20 per cent over the past two weeks. Several oil tankers have altered their routes, with at least five changing course in the Red Sea. The disruption has been compounded by other supply constraints. Kazakhstan has reportedly begun cutting oil production after drone attacks disrupted tanker loadings at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal on the Black Sea. Indian state refiners have suspended Iraqi crude loadings because of shipping risks around Hormuz, while Russian fuel exports remain constrained following months of attacks on refinery infrastructure. Strategic petroleum reserves released by several governments since the conflict escalated have reduced emergency stockpiles, commercial inventories have continued to decline, and China has increasingly relied on previously accumulated reserves rather than fresh imports. Goldman Sachs has warned that Brent crude could climb to as high as $120 a barrel by the end of the year if exports through the strategic waterway remain disrupted.

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The surge in crude oil prices has already translated into higher costs at Nigerian pumps. The impact is already beginning to reflect in Nigeria’s downstream market, with prices at filling stations in Lagos and its environs currently ranging between N1,300 and N1,400 per litre, depending on location. In Abuja, pump prices have increased from about N1,155 per litre to approximately N1,350 per litre, adding further pressure on households and businesses already grappling with elevated living costs. Dangote Petroleum Refinery resumed gantry loading of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) in naira on Thursday after a week-long suspension, while raising its ex-depot petrol price to N1,215 per litre, up from the previous N1,075 per litre, representing a 13.02 per cent increase. The refinery had suspended gantry and coastal loading on July 15 after introducing a dollar-denominated pricing template for refined petroleum products, a move that disrupted fuel supply and forced marketers to source products from private depots. Fresh loading data obtained from petroleum marketers showed an upward movement in ex-depot prices across Lagos, Warri and Calabar. In Lagos, A.A. Rano increased its ex-depot price from N1,275 to N1,279 per litre, while African Terminal, Ascon, Gulf Treasure, Integrated and T.Time hiked their rates to N1,275. The spokesperson of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), Chinedu Ukadike, confirmed that loading had resumed across depots, although it remains unclear whether purchases directly from the Dangote Refinery are now being settled in dollars.

The rise in crude oil prices presents a mixed picture for Nigeria. The 2026 Federal Government budget was benchmarked at a crude oil price of $64.85 per barrel**, daily production of 1.84 million barrels, and an exchange rate of N1,400 to the US dollar. At current prices, Nigeria is earning about **$35 more per barrel than projected, potentially generating billions of naira in additional revenue if production and exports remain stable. However, revenue gains may be moderated by lower-than-budgeted output. According to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), current oil production stands at about 1.7 million barrels per day, including condensate. More importantly, economists caution that the fiscal windfall may be outweighed by the rising cost of living, as Nigerians bear the burden of higher fuel prices under the deregulated downstream petroleum market. The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has warned that domestic refining alone may not significantly reduce petrol prices, as crude oil feedstock is priced using international benchmarks and denominated in US dollars.

Transport fares have already begun to rise across the country as a result of the fuel price increases. In Abuja, residents have expressed frustration over the latest increase, saying transportation costs now consume a significant portion of their earnings. A civil servant told Daily Trust: “My salary has not changed, but I now spend much more just getting to work and back. It is becoming impossible to survive in Abuja.” Any increase in petrol prices is expected to trigger fresh hikes in transport fares, with knock-on effects on the prices of food, manufactured goods, and other essential commodities across the country. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that refined fuel markets remain tighter than crude supplies, meaning that markets for refined oil products, including diesel and gasoline, are considerably tighter than those for crude. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol warned that a “full and unconditional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz” would be essential to prevent a further deterioration in global energy security.

Commenting on the development, Managing Director of Petroleumprice.ng, Jeremiah Olatide, said the downstream sector has become increasingly volatile. “With the resumption of loading by Dangote Petroleum Refinery in naira at N1,215 per litre on Wednesday, we expected fuel importers to reduce prices, and some actually did. However, the sudden spike in crude oil prices due to the Middle East crisis has disrupted that trend. We should expect more price instability in the coming weeks,” he told Vanguard. National President of the Oil and Gas Services Providers Association of Nigeria (OGSPAN), Mazi Colman Obasi, noted that while depots and filling stations had yet to implement widespread price increases, the impact could soon be felt across the economy. “The implications will be far-reaching for households, businesses and the wider economy once operators across the value chain adjust their prices,” he warned. Energy experts say the current situation reflects the realities of Nigeria’s deregulated petroleum market under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA). Professor Dayo Ayoade, an energy law expert at the University of Lagos, explained that local petrol prices are now tied directly to international crude oil prices and exchange rate movements. The exposure of Nigeria’s local PMS markets to the vulnerabilities of an oil shock and increasing prices due to the US-Iran war will be ongoing. So long as the conflict continues, the price will go up, and Nigeria will be unable to protect itself against that higher cost.

Nigerians May Pay More for Fuel as Global Oil Prices Surge Above $100 Per Barrel