Petrol price heads towards N1,500 per litre despite falling crude oil prices

petrol pump

Petrol price heads towards N1,500 per litre despite falling crude oil prices

The price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), popularly known as petrol, is heading towards N1,500 per litre as fresh increases by refiners, depots and filling-station operators push pump prices higher despite a decline in international crude oil prices.

The latest increase saw major downstream player MRS raise its retail price in Lagos and surrounding areas from N1,205 to N1,310 per litre, representing an increase of N105 per litre.

Checks also showed that other marketers adjusted their pump prices to between N1,315 and above N1,400 per litre, further narrowing the gap with the N1,500 mark.

The development came at a time when international crude oil prices moved in the opposite direction, with crude falling from about $92 per barrel to around $87.31 per barrel.

Brent crude was quoted at about $88.10 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at approximately $83.40 per barrel.

However, the decline in international crude prices has not translated into lower petrol prices in Nigeria, with domestic depot and retail prices continuing to rise.

Nigeria’s domestic petrol depot prices remained elevated, reaching as high as N1,217 per litre in some locations on Friday, August 28, 2026.

Warri recorded the highest monitored PMS price at N1,217 per litre, followed by Port Harcourt at N1,214, Calabar at N1,204 and Lagos at N1,202 per litre.

The lowest reported PMS price was N1,203 per litre, recorded at Mainland and Soroman depots in Calabar.

In Warri, Liquid Bulk sold petrol at N1,215 per litre, Masters at N1,210, Matrix at N1,217, Sigmund at N1,215 and T.S.L at N1,215 per litre.

In Lagos, Aiteo and Dangote depots were both listed at N1,200 per litre.

The situation changed further on Saturday, August 29, when Dangote Petroleum Refinery increased its petrol gantry price to N1,265 per litre.

The latest adjustment represents another increase in the refinery’s petrol price within a short period and could put additional pressure on the wholesale and retail markets.

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The refinery had earlier raised its gantry price from N1,165 to N1,185 per litre before increasing it to N1,200 per litre. The latest adjustment therefore represents a significant upward movement in the cost of locally refined petrol.

The repeated price adjustments have become a major factor in the current movement of petrol prices, particularly because Dangote Refinery has emerged as one of the largest suppliers of locally refined petroleum products in Nigeria.

The increase in the refinery’s price means marketers buying directly from the facility may have to pay more for their products, with the additional cost potentially reflected in depot and filling-station prices.

The development also demonstrates why changes in international crude prices do not immediately translate into corresponding changes in Nigerian pump prices.

Although crude oil remains the major raw material for petrol production, several other factors influence the final price paid by consumers.

These include the cost of crude supplied to refineries, refining margins, product availability, exchange rates, transportation, marine logistics, storage and depot charges, financing costs, taxes, distribution expenses and marketers’ margins.

The structure of Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market has also changed significantly since the expansion of domestic refining capacity.

Locally refined petrol is now competing with imported products, while marketers have more than one source from which to obtain PMS.

This competition can influence prices depending on the cost at which each supplier makes its product available, the availability of supply and the cost of transporting the product to different parts of the country.

The latest developments have also raised concerns about the relationship between domestic refining and petrol imports.

Despite increased domestic refining capacity, imported petrol remains part of Nigeria’s supply mix. Changes in import volumes can affect competition and the amount of product available to marketers.

A sustained increase in imports could put pressure on local refiners, while stronger domestic production and competition among suppliers could potentially moderate prices if supply becomes more readily available.

For now, however, the direction of the market remains upward.

The widening gap between international crude prices and domestic petrol prices suggests that the Nigerian downstream market is increasingly being determined by local supply and demand conditions rather than crude oil benchmarks alone.

For motorists, the immediate concern is the impact of higher pump prices on transportation costs.

An increase in petrol prices generally raises the cost of operating vehicles, commercial transport and logistics services. This can subsequently affect the prices of food, agricultural produce, manufactured goods and other commodities moved by road.

Businesses that rely on petrol-powered vehicles and generators could also face higher operating costs, potentially adding to the pressure on the prices of goods and services.

The latest increase therefore has implications beyond the filling station, particularly for households already dealing with elevated living expenses.

If depot and refinery prices remain at their current levels, marketers may continue reviewing their pump prices to protect their margins.

However, the N1,500 per litre threshold should not yet be interpreted as a uniform nationwide pump price. Petrol prices continue to vary according to location, marketer, supply source, transportation costs and prevailing market conditions.

Some filling stations may therefore remain below N1,500 per litre, while others could approach or exceed the threshold depending on their acquisition and operating costs.

The direction of petrol prices in the coming weeks will likely depend on several factors, including international crude prices, domestic crude supply, refinery output, imported-product volumes, exchange-rate movements, depot prices and competition among petroleum suppliers.

For Nigerian consumers, the key question is whether increased domestic refining capacity will eventually translate into more stable and affordable petrol prices.

For now, however, the latest increases indicate that petrol prices are moving closer to N1,500 per litre, even as international crude oil prices have fallen from their recent highs.