Putin isolated as neutral powers join West in anti-Russia rhetoric

TOKYO — As it has little chance of defeating Ukraine with conventional arms, Russia is destroying the country’s vital civilian infrastructure, such as power plants and housing units, to make people freeze and lose their will to fight.

Russia’s action is tantamount to torture of the Ukrainian people and must be stopped as soon as possible. For that, it is necessary to further isolate Moscow to weaken President Vladimir Putin’s will and ability to carry on the war.

From this point of view, what happened at the Group of 20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, on Nov. 15-16 was encouraging: The G-20 leaders issued a joint statement condemning Russia’s invasion in Ukraine.

It was rather unexpected. Since Russia invaded its neighbor on Feb. 24, the G-20 held several ministerial meetings but failed to make any meaningful decisions on the issue due to a deep rift between the West and Russia.

The G-20 is a group of countries with widely different political agendas that together make up more than 80% of global gross domestic product. Half of the members are major Western democracies like the U.S., European nations and Japan, but the group also includes Russia and China.

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The rest are mostly “neutral powers” in Asia, the Middle East and Latin America that are not aligned with either the West or the China-Russia camp. These powers include India, Indonesia, South Africa, Brazil and Mexico. G-20 members’ official positions on Russia’s aggression in Ukraine are widely varied.

Unexpectedly, however, the G-20 adopted a joint declaration denouncing Russia’s war, overcoming differences in those positions. While not naming Russia, the document stated, “Most members strongly condemned the war in Ukraine,” adding, “The use or threat of use of nuclear weapons is inadmissible.”

This statement has huge implications because it means that the neutral powers that had been reluctant to openly criticize Moscow have signaled a clear “no” to its invasion.

Initially, China, Putin’s close ally, tried to dilute the anti-Russia rhetoric in the declaration, but in the end, it went along with the majority and did not raise an objection to its adoption. Putin did not attend the event.

According to several diplomatic sources, Indonesia, this year’s host of the summit, and India, the host for next year, were instrumental in building consensus for the document. Officials of the two governments made well-coordinated efforts to lay diplomatic groundwork to win the support of other G-20 members.

For both India and Indonesia, the G-20 is the only high-profile international framework where they can negotiate with such nations as the U.S., China, Russia and European nations on an equal footing. They were desperate to save the group from collapse over Moscow’s war.

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In particular, Indonesia made a flurry of diplomatic efforts to build a network of nations to support the condemnation of Russia. Several days before the summit, Jakarta spent more than 60 hours with senior officials of other G-20 members, working out details of the declaration.

This signals that the international situation surrounding Russia is beginning to change significantly 10 months after the start of the war, with a growing number of neutral powers trying to distance themselves from Moscow.

One major factor is the increasing brutality of Putin’s military operations in Ukraine. Russia’s attacks targeting civilians and social infrastructure are disturbing many emerging countries that have traditionally maintained friendly ties with Moscow, according to a Southeast Asian diplomat.

In one episode symptomatic of this trend, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi assailed Putin over his invasion during a meeting in September. In a comment suggesting a shift in New Delhi’s posture on the war in Ukraine, Modi said, “Today’s era is not of war.” In an apparent nod to Modi’s comment, the G-20 declaration said, “Today’s era must not be of war.”

Another factor driving the change in neutral powers’ stance is the fact that the conflict is further aggravating the global food and energy crises. Deep discontent with Russia is spreading among emerging economies and developing nations hard hit by food and energy crunches.

Top officials and experts from Western, Middle Eastern and African nations discussed the impact of the Ukraine war on the food crisis at the World Policy Conference, an international discussion forum, in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, from Dec. 9 to 11.

At the gathering, many emerging countries expressed concerns about the potential impact of a slow recovery in food production in Ukraine, a major exporter of grain and other agricultural products. Some called for concerted efforts to ensure stable food exports from Ukraine via the Black Sea.

This situation offers a great opportunity for the West to expand its cooperation with neutral powers over such global challenges as food and energy shortages and their rising prices. Such cooperation would draw neutral nations toward the Western camp and narrow the room for Moscow to maneuver.

Japan, as the host of the Group of Seven summit in 2023, can play an important role in promoting such strategic cooperation. Tokyo should work with New Delhi, the host of the G-20 summit in 2023, to lead international efforts to make effective responses to these global challenges.

On the military front, it is vital for the U.S. and Europe to step up their support to Ukraine and put additional pressure on Russian forces. The more trouble the Russian military faces in Ukraine, the more emerging and developing countries will likely break ranks with Moscow.

The U.S.-centric world order that had prevailed since the end of World War II has come to an end. The global community has now split into three main blocs — the West, neutral powers and the China-Russia camp. Whether the world can regain stability will depend on how well the West and neutral powers will be able to bury their differences and cooperate in tackling global challenges.

Nikkei Asia