President Bola Tinubu could suffer a dramatic collapse in his Northern support in the 2027 presidential election, securing less than 10 per cent of votes from the region if the poll is free and credible, Convener of the League of Northern Democrats and key promoter of the All-Democratic Alliance (ADA), Dr Umar Ardo, has predicted.

Ardo made the prediction on Monday in an interview on Frontline, a current affairs programme on Eagle 102.5 FM, Ilese-Ijebu, Ogun State, arguing that the outcome would largely reflect how Northern voters assess the Tinubu administration’s performance.

He identified insecurity, worsening poverty, economic hardship and the rising cost of living as major issues likely to influence voting decisions in the region.

According to him, the persistent insecurity affecting communities, farmers, traders and businesses remains one of the administration’s biggest challenges.

“You can solve the issue of insecurity and insurgency in one year,” he said, insisting that the Federal Government could significantly reduce the crisis with the right strategy and sufficient political will.

Ardo also faulted the administration’s economic reforms, particularly the removal of fuel subsidy, questioning whether ordinary Nigerians had experienced corresponding benefits.

“Subsidy removal, is it a benefit?” he asked, arguing that the reforms had eroded purchasing power and made basic necessities increasingly unaffordable.

He said the impact had been particularly severe in Northern Nigeria, where a large proportion of the population is economically vulnerable.

“The economic reform has pushed from the state of poverty to destitution,” he said.

The political commentator also raised concerns about political representation under the Tinubu administration, arguing that the composition of government could shape public perception of its commitment to different regions.

Ardo said Northern voters should not be assumed to be permanently aligned with the voting pattern recorded in 2023, stressing that prevailing economic and security conditions would determine their choices in 2027.

“If a free, fair and credible election is conducted in Nigeria, Tinubu can’t get 10 percent of the Northern part,” he declared.

His prediction puts the spotlight on the opposition’s capacity to exploit any erosion of Tinubu’s Northern support, with former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and other opposition figures potentially positioned to benefit from any major electoral realignment.

Adeleke’s re-election faces tribunal battle as APC, PDP file petitions

The re-election of Osun State Governor Ademola Adeleke has entered a fresh legal battle after the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) filed separate petitions challenging the outcome of the August 15, 2026 Osun governorship election.

The development has shifted the post-election contest from the ballot box to the Osun State Governorship Election Petition Tribunal, where the two petitions were formally displayed at the tribunal secretariat in Osogbo on Monday, September 7.

The display of the petitions marks the formal commencement of the legal process challenging the election that returned Adeleke for a second term.

The tribunal’s Secretary, Pefe Belemore, confirmed that petitions challenging the election outcome had been received and that the required notices had been displayed to begin the legal process.

The APC petition, marked EPT/OS/GOV/01/2026, was filed by the party’s governorship candidate, Asiwaju Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji.

Oyebamiji named Governor Ademola Adeleke, the Accord Party and the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) as respondents in the case.

The PDP also filed a separate petition, marked EPT/OS/GOV/02/2026. The petition was filed by Adebayo Olugbenga Adedamola against Adeleke, INEC and the Accord Party.

The specific grounds and reliefs being sought in the two petitions were not publicly available when the cases were displayed. The filing, however, means that the two political parties have formally taken their challenges to the election outcome before the tribunal.

Adeleke, who contested the election on the platform of the Accord Party, was declared winner after securing 511,067 votes, defeating Oyebamiji of the APC, who polled 444,815 votes.

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The governor therefore won the election with a margin of 66,252 votes.

The 2026 Osun governorship election was closely watched because of the political importance of the state in the South-West and its significance ahead of the 2027 general elections.

Adeleke had previously won the governorship election in 2022 on the platform of the PDP. However, he contested the 2026 election under the Accord Party following his political realignment.

His victory gave him another term in office, but the latest petitions mean that the result will now be subjected to judicial scrutiny.

The tribunal development also follows conflicting reports over whether any petition had been filed within the statutory period for challenging the election.

Earlier reports had indicated that the 21-day window for filing an election petition had expired without a publicly confirmed challenge. The subsequent confirmation that both the APC and PDP had filed petitions has now opened a new legal chapter in the post-election dispute.

The APC petition is particularly significant because Oyebamiji had earlier congratulated Adeleke following the declaration of the result while indicating that any concerns arising from the election would be pursued through lawful and constitutional means.

With the filing of the petition, the APC candidate has now formally taken his challenge to the election tribunal.

The next stage of the process is expected to involve the service of the petitions and other court documents on Adeleke, INEC and the Accord Party.

The respondents will then have an opportunity to respond to the claims contained in the petitions before the matter progresses through the required pre-hearing procedures.

The tribunal will eventually consider the substantive issues raised by the petitioners and the responses presented by the respondents.

The filing of an election petition does not automatically cancel Adeleke’s victory or remove him from office. The governor remains the declared winner of the August 15 election unless a competent court eventually rules otherwise.

The tribunal will therefore determine the matter based on the evidence and legal arguments presented by the parties.

For the APC, the case provides an opportunity to challenge an election in which its candidate finished second with 444,815 votes.

For the PDP, the separate petition adds another dimension to the dispute, particularly because Adeleke previously represented the party before contesting his re-election on the Accord platform.

The legal proceedings could become a significant political development in Osun State as parties begin positioning themselves ahead of the 2027 elections.

However, the immediate focus will remain on the election tribunal and the legal arguments surrounding the August 15 poll.

The display of the petitions marks the beginning of a new phase in the Osun political contest, with the battle now moving from campaign grounds and polling units to the courtroom.

Until the tribunal or a higher court makes a final determination, Ademola Adeleke remains the duly declared governor-elect and winner of the August 15, 2026 Osun governorship election.

The coming proceedings will determine whether the APC and PDP can establish sufficient legal grounds to alter or overturn the result declared by INEC.

Adeleke’s re-election faces tribunal battle as APC, PDP file petitions

Atiku: Production subsidy will boost local oil production, put money back in Nigerians’ pockets

Former Vice President and African Democratic Congress (ADC) presidential candidate for 2027, Atiku Abubakar, has criticised President Bola Tinubu’s economic policies, accusing the administration of worsening the cost-of-living crisis and weakening the purchasing power of Nigerian households and businesses.

Atiku said Nigerians were facing rising costs of petrol, food, transportation and basic goods, while many businesses were struggling because consumers had less money to spend.

In a statement issued on September 6 by his Senior Special Assistant on Public Communication, Phrank Shaibu, the ADC presidential candidate said the Federal Government could not rely solely on economic statistics while Nigerians continued to experience financial hardship.

Atiku particularly criticised the removal of the petrol subsidy, arguing that the policy had contributed to higher transportation and living costs.

He also rejected criticism of his proposal for a production subsidy, saying the initiative was designed to support domestic production and refining rather than return to the previous system of subsidising imported petrol.

“This is why my Production Subsidy is about putting money back into people’s pockets. Support what we produce and refine here, increase supply, monitor the price and make sure Nigerians feel the benefit at the pump,” Atiku said.

According to the former vice president, the proposed intervention would focus government support on Nigerian oil production and domestic refineries, with the broader objective of increasing supply, strengthening the petroleum industry and reducing pressure on consumers.

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Atiku said the position of the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) in support of stronger domestic refining further reinforces his argument for targeted government intervention.

He also cited the policies of US President Donald Trump as an example of how government support could be used to strengthen strategic domestic energy production.

Atiku argued that Nigeria should similarly support its local refining industry instead of relying heavily on imported petroleum products.

However, his reference to Trump was a comparison between the two approaches and should not be interpreted as a direct endorsement by the US president of Atiku’s Nigerian policy.

Atiku said the cost-of-living crisis had become increasingly difficult for Nigerians, accusing the Tinubu administration of making essential goods and services significantly more expensive.

“Tinubu did not inherit this cost-of-living crisis from Nigerians. His policies created and deepened it,” Atiku said.

He cited increases in the prices of fertiliser, petrol and cement, as well as changes in the naira-to-dollar exchange rate, as examples of the economic pressures facing Nigerians.

Atiku said fertiliser had risen from about N9,000 to N50,000, while petrol had increased from approximately N199 to around N1,400 per litre. He also cited an increase in cement prices from roughly N4,000 to about N13,500.

He further pointed to the depreciation of the Nigerian naira against the US dollar as another factor affecting businesses and household purchasing power.

Atiku argued that the consequences of these increases extended beyond individual consumers, affecting small businesses that must cope with higher transportation, electricity and restocking expenses.

He illustrated his argument with the example of a frozen-food seller in Kubwa, Abuja, who, according to him, now spends more to transport goods, power freezers and purchase new stock while customers increasingly struggle to afford the products.

The situation, Atiku said, could eventually affect the entire supply chain as retailers struggle to restock, suppliers wait for payments and customers reduce their purchases.

The ADC candidate also referred to reports indicating that significant amounts of short-term assets belonging to some major Nigerian companies were tied up in unpaid customer bills.

He said the development reflected the weakening purchasing power of consumers, arguing that businesses could make sales on paper but still face financial difficulties when customers were unable to pay.

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Atiku therefore challenged the Federal Government to look beyond headline economic indicators and assess whether Nigerians were actually experiencing improvements in their daily lives.

“Nigerians know the prices they meet every day,” he said, arguing that households were more concerned about the cost of food, fuel, transport and other necessities than official economic statistics.

He also questioned the availability of meaningful relief for Nigerians amid rising living costs, citing concerns over electricity, security, food prices and transportation.

Atiku said his production subsidy proposal was intended to change the way government intervention operates in Nigeria’s petroleum sector.

Rather than subsidising imported petrol, he said the policy would support domestic oil production and refining, with intervention linked to measurable production and supply.

The objective, he said, would be to increase domestic petroleum output, strengthen local refineries, create jobs and reduce the cost of petroleum products for consumers.

Atiku also questioned why government intervention should be considered poor economic policy when the intended beneficiaries were Nigerian consumers and producers.

“Why does intervention suddenly become bad economics when ordinary Nigerians are meant to benefit?” he asked.

The former vice president argued that Nigeria should adopt policies that support strategic domestic industries while ensuring that the benefits reach ordinary citizens.

He said increased local refining would reduce dependence on imported petroleum products and help Nigeria retain more value from its oil resources.

The renewed debate over fuel subsidy, domestic refining and the cost of living is likely to become an important issue ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

Atiku is seeking to distinguish his production-focused proposal from the petrol subsidy regime that was removed by the Tinubu administration.

He said his economic approach would prioritise domestic production, local refining, job creation and lower living costs, rather than policies that place additional pressure on household incomes.

“The choice before Nigeria is therefore clear: continue with an economy that takes more from the people, or build one that puts money back in their pockets,” Atiku said.

He urged Nigerians to support policies that would increase domestic production and make essential goods and services more affordable.

“Support production. Refine in Nigeria. Create Nigerian jobs. Lower the cost of living,” he said.

Atiku maintained that Nigeria must produce more locally while ensuring that ordinary Nigerians pay less for essential goods and have enough income left to support their families.

The statement comes as political parties and presidential aspirants begin shaping their economic messages ahead of the 2027 general election, with fuel prices, purchasing power, domestic refining and the broader cost of living expected to remain central issues.

Atiku: Production subsidy will boost local oil production, put money back in Nigerians’ pockets