Tinubu Unpopular, Yet 2027 Re-election Still Possible — The Economist

Tinubu Unpopular, Yet 2027 Re-election Still Possible — The Economist

 

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu may be facing widespread dissatisfaction among Nigerians, but a divided opposition, religious considerations, incumbency and low voter turnout could shape the outcome of the 2027 presidential election, according to an analysis by the British publication, The Economist.

 

In a report titled “Nigerians Dislike Their President, But May Re-elect Him Anyway,” the publication examined the political dynamics surrounding the forthcoming presidential election and questioned why the President appears relatively confident about his chances despite the economic and security challenges confronting the country.

 

The analysis was published as Nigeria approaches the 2027 presidential election, with The Economist noting that Tinubu’s administration is operating amid a worsening security situation and economic pressures that have affected many households.

 

The publication specifically examined the situation in Borno State, where insurgency has persisted for years, damaging economic activities and leaving many young people without jobs and businesses struggling.

 

It noted that while Tinubu secured 54 per cent of the presidential vote in Borno in 2023, recent polling cited from SBM Intelligence suggested that his popularity in the state had fallen behind those of opposition figures Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar.

 

The report said some residents of Maiduguri were prepared to express their dissatisfaction at the ballot box.

 

However, The Economist argued that public dissatisfaction alone might not determine the election, pointing to several structural factors within Nigeria’s political system.

 

One of the major factors identified was the fragmentation of the opposition.

 

The publication observed that Obi and Atiku had not formed a joint ticket, meaning that voters opposed to the ruling All Progressives Congress could be divided among different candidates.

 

It quoted Joachim MacEbong of Control Risks as saying that because there was no united opposition ticket, the anti-APC vote was not necessarily being consolidated behind one candidate.

 

The publication also identified incumbency as another factor in Nigerian elections, noting that sitting governments have access to established political structures and resources that can be mobilised during campaigns.

 

Religion was also discussed in the analysis, particularly in relation to northern Nigeria.

 

The Economist noted that Tinubu and Vice-President Kashim Shettima are Muslims, as are the majority of people in the northern region.

 

It quoted SBM Intelligence chief Cheta Nwanze as saying that the continued Muslim-Muslim ticket “resonates with quite a number of people”.

 

The report also suggested that religious identity could affect some voters considering Peter Obi, a Catholic, despite his Muslim running mate.

 

Beyond party politics and religion, the publication highlighted what it described as political cynicism among some voters.

 

It quoted MacEbong as saying that in communities where citizens have experienced prolonged shortages of security, healthcare and quality education, expectations of government can become increasingly low.

 

The report cited Borno as an example, saying that some residents might judge the government differently because of the long history of poor public services in the state.

 

The security situation could also affect voter participation.

 

According to the publication, turnout in Borno during the 2023 presidential election was below 20 per cent, compared with about 27 per cent nationwide.

 

It suggested that insecurity could discourage some voters from travelling to polling units during the next election.

 

In southern Nigeria, particularly Lagos, the report noted that regional identity could also influence voting behaviour, with some residents potentially considering Tinubu as a “son” of the state despite dissatisfaction over economic conditions.

 

The Economist also acknowledged that Tinubu’s economic reforms, including the removal of the petrol subsidy, have been welcomed by some investors and have contributed to economic adjustments.

 

However, it said the reforms had yet to translate into noticeable improvements in the daily lives of many Nigerians.

 

The publication consequently presented the 2027 contest as one in which economic hardship and insecurity could coexist with political factors capable of shaping voter behaviour.

 

The analysis has generated debate in Nigeria, particularly over whether dissatisfaction with the administration would translate into a consolidated opposition vote.

 

The 2027 presidential contest is expected to feature Tinubu and several opposition candidates, making the configuration of alliances and the distribution of votes among the major contenders significant factors in the election.

 

The Economist’s report is an analysis of the factors that could influence the 2027 contest; it is not a poll establishing the eventual winner.

Tinubu Unpopular, Yet 2027 Re-election Still Possible — The Economist