World Bank Raises Nigeria Growth Forecast, Demands More Jobs, Poverty Reduction

World Bank Raises Nigeria Growth Forecast, Demands More Jobs, Poverty Reduction

The World Bank has upgraded its economic growth forecast for Nigeria, citing improving macroeconomic stability, stronger investor confidence and a gradual recovery in private investment under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s reforms.

In its latest Africa Economic Update, the bank raised Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.3 per cent, up from an estimated 4.0 per cent growth in 2025.

It also projected that the Nigerian economy would expand by 4.4 per cent annually in 2027 and 2028, reflecting expectations of continued improvement in economic activity.

The World Bank said Nigeria was among nearly three-quarters of sub-Saharan African countries whose growth outlooks were upgraded, attributing the broader improvement to years of economic reforms and better macroeconomic management.

For Nigeria, the bank pointed to progress in restoring macroeconomic stability, stronger external balances, improved fiscal revenues, increased investor confidence and a gradual recovery in private investment.

Nigeria’s economy expanded by 4.43 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, according to official data, with agriculture and services recording stronger performances.

However, the World Bank cautioned that faster economic growth alone would not be enough to significantly improve living standards.

READ ALSO:

• Flood Submerges Enugu Road, Strands School Children, Passengers
• US Proposes $70,000 OPT Fee for Nigerians, Other Foreign Students
• EFCC Re-Arraigns Two Over Alleged £110,000 Money Laundering, ₦500m Fraud

It said the country’s next major challenge was to translate economic growth into productive jobs, higher household incomes and lower poverty.

The bank estimates that about 3.5 million people enter Nigeria’s labour force every year, putting enormous pressure on the economy to generate sufficient and sustainable employment opportunities.

It warned that the significance of Nigeria’s improving growth outlook would increasingly depend on whether economic expansion results in increased investment, business growth, higher productivity and better-paying jobs.

The World Bank’s latest assessment also showed that poverty remains a major concern. It estimated that 69.6 per cent of Nigerians lived below the lower-middle-income poverty line of $4.20 a day in 2025, while about 123 million people, or 50.8 per cent of the population, lived in extreme poverty under the bank’s cited measure.

The lender said improving macroeconomic conditions had created an opportunity for Nigeria to move from economic stabilisation towards expanding productive capacity and improving living standards.

It, however, warned that rising government spending ahead of the 2027 elections could undermine the momentum of recent reforms if fiscal discipline weakens.

The bank also stressed the importance of greater private-sector investment, improved electricity supply, transport and logistics, digital infrastructure, access to finance, agricultural productivity and a better business environment.

It said investments in education, skills, healthcare and early-childhood development would also be critical to improving the productivity of Nigeria’s future workforce.

Beyond Nigeria, the World Bank raised its forecast for sub-Saharan Africa to 4.3 per cent growth in 2026, up from 4.1 per cent in 2025 and 0.3 percentage points above its April projection.

The bank said the region still faced significant risks from geopolitical tensions, climate shocks, tighter financial conditions, insecurity and declining development assistance.

It also urged African governments to invest in artificial intelligence and digital technologies, saying affordable AI applications in areas such as education, agriculture, healthcare, finance and small businesses could help boost productivity and create more jobs.

For Nigeria, the message is increasingly clear: maintaining macroeconomic stability is only the first stage of the recovery, while the bigger test will be whether the reforms deliver jobs, income growth and meaningful poverty reduction for households.

World Bank Raises Nigeria Growth Forecast, Demands More Jobs, Poverty Reduction