139 Million Nigerians in Poverty Despite Three Years of Tinubu’s Reforms – World Bank

139 Million Nigerians in Poverty Despite Three Years of Tinubu’s Reforms – World Bank

Despite nearly three years of sweeping economic reforms and various palliative measures, about 79 per cent of Nigerians remain poor or vulnerable to falling into poverty, according to new World Bank documents, as experts point to inflation, weak job creation, and governance gaps as key obstacles.

The findings, contained in the World Bank’s Country Partnership Framework for Nigeria (2026–2032) and its accompanying Streamlined Country Diagnostic, reveal that about 139 million Nigerians currently live below the national poverty line, with poverty concentrated largely in the northern part of the country. The report further indicates that 33 per cent of the population is classified as ultra-poor and unable to meet minimum food requirements, while 61 per cent live below the poverty line. This means approximately 139 to 140 million citizens are trapped between soaring food prices, a weak naira, unreliable public services, and wages eroded by inflation. The reforms aimed to free fiscal space and attract investment, yet the benefits have yet to translate into meaningful improvements in living standards for most Nigerians from Lagos to Kano.

A herd of economic and finance experts have given reasons why, despite successive governments’ promises that subsidy removals, tax overhauls, and cash transfers would lift millions out of poverty, the relief has not matched the hardship for most households. CEO of CFG Advisory, Dr Adetilewa Adebajo, noted that rising inflation continues to undermine purchasing power, consumer demand, and overall growth. “We’re expecting that maybe when inflation gets to single digit, the amount of Nigerians in poverty will reduce. But as inflation begins to inch up again, then you’re going to affect purchasing power. There is need for us to coordinate our industrial policy with our trade policy and our investment policy, so that you can begin to increase productivity and create employment. That is the key challenge in Nigeria right now,” he said. Adebajo’s analysis points to the interconnected nature of Nigeria’s economic challenges, where monetary instability and lack of productive capacity reinforce each other, trapping millions in poverty despite macroeconomic adjustments.

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Job creation has been identified by the World Bank as the single most important pathway out of poverty for Nigeria. The report warns that reforms alone would not significantly reduce poverty unless they generate jobs on a large scale. According to the document, one in four Nigerian youths is neither employed, in education, nor in training, while the majority of workers remain trapped in low-productivity, low-paying informal jobs. It projected that about 60 million young Nigerians would enter the labour force over the next decade, making employment generation Nigeria’s most urgent development priority. This demographic pressure, if left unaddressed, threatens to deepen the poverty crisis and fuel social unrest across the country.

ActionAid Nigeria Country Director Andrew Mamedu echoed widespread frustration, stating that the World Bank has confirmed what many Nigerian families already know – that nearly 8 out of every 10 Nigerians are poor, or one shock away from becoming poor. He highlighted that poverty rose from 40 per cent in 2019 to 61 per cent in 2025 and now 79 per cent in 2026, despite claims of stabilisation, rising reserves, and investor confidence. “Who exactly is this recovery for?” Mamedu asked, pointing to 33 per cent (77 million) facing food insecurity, 86 million without electricity, and 84 per cent of children aged 5-14 unable to read age-appropriate sentences. He criticised government spending, noting less than 1 per cent of the budget protects the vulnerable, with only 8 in 100 poor Nigerians accessing safety nets, while 60 million youths face a constrained job market. Mamedu’s comments highlight the growing disconnect between official narratives of economic recovery and the lived realities of ordinary Nigerians.

The World Bank raised serious concerns over the country’s limited social protection coverage. According to the report, public spending on social protection represented just 0.14 per cent of Gross Domestic Product in 2021, far below the Sub-Saharan African average of 1.1 per cent, and only 8.5 per cent of poor Nigerians were covered by any form of social safety net. The report noted that social protection programmes remain heavily dependent on external financing and must be complemented by investments in education, healthcare, and skills development to improve productivity and earnings. Researchers have concluded that without transparent and accountable mechanisms, palliative distribution risks deepening existing inequalities and further eroding public trust in governance. Academic analysis suggests that food palliatives are not merely humanitarian aid but a calculated political instrument that temporarily appeases public discontent while diverting attention from systemic governance failures such as chronic poverty, corruption, and institutional dysfunction.

Public policy analyst, Engineer Adesanya Adebayo questioned the disconnect, asking whether the average Nigerian can feel the impact of economic reforms in their daily life. He identified bad governance as a core reason, a view shared by many who contrast official data with ground realities, rejecting what some term “paper economics.” Similarly, a quantity surveyor and construction advisor, Olumide A. Aremu, argued that true development requires nationwide impact, not isolated projects. “A developed country is one where ordinary people feel the difference every single day. In 2026, Nigerians still celebrate electricity because it came back. That should never be normal.” He called for construction across all 36 states rather than concentrated efforts in major cities. These expert voices collectively underscore that Nigeria’s development challenges are not merely technical but deeply rooted in governance failures, policy coordination gaps, and a lack of inclusive growth strategies.

Despite the grim statistics, the World Bank acknowledged that recent macroeconomic reforms have helped stabilise the economy and restore investor confidence. Economic growth increased from 3.5 per cent in the first half of 2024 to 3.9 per cent during the corresponding period of 2025, foreign reserves have risen above $42 billion, fiscal deficits have narrowed, and investor confidence has strengthened. The Bank projected that poverty levels could begin to decline gradually starting from 2026 as inflation continues to moderate and economic conditions stabilise. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has, however, warned that Nigerians will face higher prices for essential goods in 2026, cautioning that the trend could worsen poverty and food insecurity despite improvements in the country’s macroeconomic stability. The World Bank stressed that sustained implementation of reforms, supported by deeper structural changes, would be necessary to improve the country’s medium-term economic prospects and ensure that the benefits of reform reach the millions of Nigerians who remain trapped in poverty.

139 Million Nigerians in Poverty Despite Three Years of Tinubu’s Reforms – World Bank