Politics

2027: Tinubu Edges Peter Obi by 1.55 Points in Oxford-Metro Poll

Published

3 weeks ago

September 12, 2026

Peter Obi and President Bola Ahmed Tinubu

2027: Tinubu Edges Peter Obi by 1.55 Points in Oxford-Metro Poll

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has narrowly edged Peter Obi in the latest Oxford-Metro Analytics National Trust Poll conducted ahead of Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election, with the incumbent recording 1,067 more responses than the former Anambra State governor.

The poll, which closed on September 7, recorded 69,110 approved and unflagged responses in its final analytical dataset. Tinubu received 24,469 responses, representing 35.41 per cent, while Obi polled 23,402 responses, representing 33.86 per cent.

The figures put Tinubu 1.55 percentage points ahead of Obi, based on the published percentages. Former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, the ADC presidential candidate, finished third with 18,430 responses, representing 26.67 per cent of the total.

The result points to a closely contested three-way race among Tinubu, Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar, although the poll should not be interpreted as a prediction of the eventual outcome of the 2027 election.

The geographical distribution of the responses presented a more complex picture. Tinubu recorded the highest number of responses in 20 states and the Federal Capital Territory, while Obi and Atiku each led in eight states.

Tinubu’s reported support extended into several northern states where he did not emerge as the leading presidential candidate in the 2023 election. He recorded the highest number of responses in Kaduna, Katsina and Gombe, states won by Atiku in 2023.

The President also led in Kano, where Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party won the presidential election in 2023.

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At the geopolitical-zone level, Tinubu led in the South-West, North-West and North-Central, while Obi recorded the strongest showing in the South-East and South-South. Atiku dominated the North-East.

Tinubu’s strongest regional performance came in the South-West, where he received 10,968 responses, representing 43.53 per cent of participation in the zone. He also led in the North-West with 4,129 responses, representing 43.10 per cent, while his 6,370 responses in the North-Central accounted for 36.97 per cent of participation.

Obi recorded his strongest performance in the South-East, where he secured 5,796 responses, representing 63.97 per cent of the region’s participation. He also led in the South-South with 2,389 responses, representing 41.48 per cent.

Atiku’s strongest regional showing came in the North-East, where he received 1,235 responses, accounting for 55.46 per cent of participation in the zone.

The regional figures underline the different political bases of the three leading contenders. While Tinubu recorded a broader geographical spread in the poll, Obi maintained a commanding position in the South-East and a lead in the South-South, while Atiku’s strongest support remained concentrated in the North-East.

Some state-level contests were particularly close. In Kogi State, Tinubu received 39 responses, compared with 38 for Atiku and 33 for Obi, out of 110 responses recorded.

The Federal Capital Territory recorded a considerably larger number of participants. Tinubu polled 5,599 responses against Obi’s 5,278, giving the President a lead of 321 responses, while Atiku received 3,954.

In Rivers State, Tinubu also finished ahead of Obi, polling 975 responses against Obi’s 892, while Atiku received 568.

Beyond the three leading contenders, Omoyele Sowore received 1,016 responses, followed by Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde with 519 and former President Goodluck Jonathan with 284.

Other candidates recorded significantly smaller figures, with Anita Zugwai-Chukwu receiving 18 responses, Sandy Onor six and Prince Kennedy Ahanotu two.

The poll also recorded 638 participants who selected “I Do Not Trust Any Candidate Yet”, while 204 respondents were undecided and 122 selected “Other Candidate”.

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One of the most significant features of the exercise was the concentration of participation in a relatively small number of locations. Lagos and the FCT accounted for 54.44 per cent of all responses, meaning more than half of the final dataset came from the two locations.

The final dataset also contained 56 diaspora responses, which were excluded from the six domestic geopolitical-zone tallies.

The distribution of responses varied considerably from state to state. While Lagos and the FCT recorded tens of thousands of responses combined, some states had fewer than 100 participants. This variation is important when interpreting state-by-state comparisons and the broader national figures.

Oxford-Metro Analytics describes the exercise as an open public-pulse poll rather than a conventional scientific opinion survey. The organisation says its platform applies measures designed to identify duplicate submissions, suspicious voting patterns and other forms of manipulation.

However, the poll’s own methodology makes clear that it should not be regarded as a population-representative scientific poll or an official election forecast. The results reflect the preferences expressed by people who participated in the online exercise and were approved for inclusion in the final dataset.

That distinction is particularly important ahead of the 2027 Nigerian presidential election, as the actual electorate will be determined by registered voters who participate in the election conducted by the Independent National Electoral Commission.

The Oxford-Metro figures nevertheless provide an indication of the political preferences expressed by participants in the exercise and highlight the competitiveness of the emerging presidential contest.

Tinubu’s narrow national lead over Obi contrasts with the stronger regional leads recorded by the two opposition contenders in their respective areas of strength. The figures also show Atiku retaining significant support in the North-East despite trailing Tinubu and Obi nationally.

The results could therefore fuel further debate among political parties and supporters about the strength of the major candidates as preparations for the 2027 presidential election intensify.

For Tinubu, the poll’s most notable feature is the reported lead across the South-West, North-West and North-Central, alongside gains in northern states where other candidates performed strongly in 2023.

For Obi, the figures reinforce his continued dominance among participants in the South-East and his lead in the South-South. Atiku’s performance in the North-East, meanwhile, points to his continuing regional strength.

Overall, the Oxford-Metro exercise places Tinubu on 35.41 per cent, Obi on 33.86 per cent and Atiku on 26.67 per cent among the 69,110 approved responses.

With the difference between Tinubu and Obi standing at just 1,067 responses, the figures indicate a close contest within the poll, while the significant regional variations suggest that the geographical distribution of political support could remain a major factor in the build-up to the 2027 election.

2027: Tinubu Edges Peter Obi by 1.55 Points in Oxford-Metro Poll

Related Topics:Featured Oxford-Metro Peter Obi Tinubu

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2027: Ajaero Questions Tinubu, Atiku, Obi’s Economic Approach, Highlights Adebayo’s Ideas

Published

15 hours ago

October 5, 2026

Trends Admin

President of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), Joe Ajaero

2027: Ajaero Questions Tinubu, Atiku, Obi’s Economic Approach, Highlights Adebayo’s Ideas

President of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), Joe Ajaero, has questioned the economic positions of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, while saying the ideas of Social Democratic Party (SDP) presidential candidate Adewole Adebayo deserve serious attention ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

Ajaero made the comments during an interview with Seun Okinbaloye on Mic On, where he was asked about the economic policies of Atiku and other leading figures in the 2027 race.

Rather than focusing solely on Atiku’s economic proposals, the NLC president highlighted the positions of Adebayo and Accord Party presidential candidate Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim, saying he had examined their ideas and was willing to listen to them.

“I have looked at Gbenga Hashim’s position and I think he’s an expert to an extent. I also looked at Adebayo. I may listen to them,” Ajaero said.

He subsequently contrasted the economic approaches of Adebayo and Olawepo-Hashim with those of Tinubu, Atiku and Obi.

“Peter Obi, Atiku and Asiwaju, they all have the same position and they have shown that they are market people from far right,” he said.

Ajaero’s remarks have drawn attention to the economic debate ahead of the 2027 election, particularly as issues such as inflation, fuel prices, electricity costs, unemployment, wages and declining purchasing power remain major concerns for Nigerians.

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Adebayo, who is contesting the 2027 presidency on the SDP platform, has built his campaign around social democracy, increased domestic production, job creation and a stronger role for government in providing public services and expanding economic opportunities.

The SDP candidate has also made energy reform a major part of his campaign, arguing that high energy costs and inadequate electricity supply continue to constrain households, businesses and industrial production.

His policy blueprint, Farewell to Poverty and Insecurity: Governance & Accelerated Development — Blueprint of a New Nigeria, 2027–2031, proposes mechanisms for monitoring government performance through measurable targets, periodic assessments and implementation milestones.

Adebayo has also advocated greater emphasis on domestic production, with the argument that Nigeria must reduce its dependence on imports and foreign exchange while strengthening local industries and productive capacity.

Olawepo-Hashim, whom Ajaero also mentioned, has similarly made energy and industrialisation central to his economic programme. His proposed Energy First agenda focuses on increasing domestic energy production, expanding refining capacity and reducing energy costs.

Ajaero’s comments do not amount to a formal endorsement of Adebayo or Olawepo-Hashim for the 2027 presidential election. Rather, the NLC president said their economic proposals were sufficiently different from those of the politicians he discussed to warrant further engagement.

The intervention comes as political parties and presidential candidates increasingly position their economic policies at the centre of the 2027 campaign, with competing proposals on fuel pricing, taxation, electricity, wages, industrialisation, employment and social protection.

For the NLC, which represents organised labour and has been at the forefront of debates over wages and the impact of economic reforms on workers, the direction of the next administration’s economic policy is expected to remain a major issue ahead of the election.

With the 2027 political contest gathering momentum, the competing economic visions of the presidential candidates are likely to face increased scrutiny from organised labour, businesses and voters as parties intensify their campaigns.

2027: Ajaero Questions Tinubu, Atiku, Obi’s Economic Approach, Highlights Adebayo’s Ideas

Politics

2027: Soludo Govt Accuses Peter Obi Of Plot To Destroy APGA

Published

20 hours ago

October 5, 2026

Trends Admin

2027: Soludo Govt Accuses Peter Obi Of Plot To Destroy APGA

The Anambra State Government has declared former governor Peter Obi and his Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) a threat to the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) ahead of the 2027 presidential election, urging APGA supporters to resist the opposition party.

The state government made the declaration in a message issued through its New Media office on Monday, accusing Obi of working to weaken the party that gave him the platform to become governor of Anambra.

The government described its message as a “betrayal alert” to APGA supporters, alleging that Obi had been seeking to undermine the party since leaving it in 2014.

It urged party members in the state not to be swayed by Obi’s current political influence, arguing that APGA remained the political platform responsible for his emergence as governor.

The government said, “Since 2014, Obi has had one mission: to destroy the party that made him,” while calling on APGA members to defend the party ahead of the 2027 elections.

The development comes amid an increasingly tense political relationship between Obi and the administration of Governor Chukwuma Soludo.

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Obi governed Anambra from 2006 to 2014 on the APGA platform before leaving the party for the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). He later joined the Labour Party, under which he contested the 2023 presidential election, before becoming the presidential candidate of the NDC ahead of the 2027 election.

The former governor remains an influential political figure in the South-East, particularly in Anambra, where his 2023 presidential campaign recorded strong support.

The Anambra government’s latest position also comes against the backdrop of APGA’s alignment with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

The state government has previously defended its relationship with the President and maintained that supporting Tinubu does not conflict with APGA’s interests.

However, Obi’s emergence as the NDC presidential candidate has created a new political challenge for APGA, particularly because of his longstanding influence among voters in Anambra and the wider South-East.

The NDC has rejected the allegations against Obi, accusing the Soludo administration of attacking the former governor because of concerns about his popularity.

NDC Director of New Media and Strategic Communications, Theo Abu Agada, described the state government’s position as political blackmail and maintained that the party was confident of its prospects in the 2027 election.

The latest exchange has further widened the political divide between the camps of Peter Obi and Chukwuma Soludo, with both sides increasingly positioning themselves ahead of the 2027 presidential contest.

For APGA, the emergence of Obi and the NDC presents a particularly sensitive political challenge because of the former governor’s history with the party and his continued influence in Anambra.

The 2027 election is therefore expected to produce a major political contest in the state, with APGA seeking to retain its influence while Obi’s NDC attempts to convert his personal support base into wider electoral backing.

2027: Soludo Govt Accuses Peter Obi Of Plot To Destroy APGA

Politics

Nine Zamfara Lawmakers Dump APC for ADC Ahead of 2027

Published

23 hours ago

October 5, 2026

Trends Admin

Nine Zamfara Lawmakers Dump APC for ADC Ahead of 2027

Nine members of the Zamfara State House of Assembly have left the All Progressives Congress (APC) and defected to the African Democratic Congress (ADC) ahead of the 2027 general elections.

The lawmakers cited concerns over insecurity, internal party divisions and what they described as inadequate attention to the welfare of residents and their constituents as reasons for their decision.

The lawmakers are Aliyu Ango Kagara, representing Talata Mafara South; Muktar Nasir, representing Kaura Namoda North; Faruk Dosara Musa, representing Maradun I; Basiru Bello, representing Bungudu West; Bashir A. Masama, representing Bukkuyum North; Ibrahim T. Tukur, representing Bakura; Nasiru Abdullahi, representing Maru North; Yusuf Muhammad Anka, representing Anka; and Bashar Aliyu, representing Gummi I.

Speaking on behalf of the lawmakers, Kagara said their concerns about the security situation in Zamfara had contributed to disagreements with the state government.

He said the lawmakers had raised the issue of insecurity on the floor of the Assembly, but that their position led to disagreements with Governor Dauda Lawal and their subsequent suspension.

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Kagara also alleged that joining the APC did not resolve their grievances, claiming that some party leaders failed to give them what they considered a fair hearing.

Earlier, some of the lawmakers announced their resignation from the APC in separate letters dated October 4, 2026.

In the letters, the lawmakers cited issues including insecurity, alleged injustice, internal divisions, uncertainty and concerns about governance.

One of the lawmakers also alleged that members of the Assembly had gone about 32 months without receiving salaries, allowances and other entitlements.

The claims about unpaid entitlements and other grievances are allegations by the affected lawmakers and have not been independently established in the reports.

The APC in Zamfara initially said it had not received official copies of the resignation letters. The party’s publicity secretary, Ibrahim Birnin-Magaji, said the documents had been seen on social media and that the party was awaiting formal communication through the appropriate party structures.

The defection represents a significant political realignment in Zamfara ahead of the 2027 elections, with the movement of the lawmakers potentially affecting the political balance within the state legislature.