2027: Tinubu Edges Peter Obi by 1.55 Points in Oxford-Metro Poll

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has narrowly edged Peter Obi in the latest Oxford-Metro Analytics National Trust Poll conducted ahead of Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election, with the incumbent recording 1,067 more responses than the former Anambra State governor.

The poll, which closed on September 7, recorded 69,110 approved and unflagged responses in its final analytical dataset. Tinubu received 24,469 responses, representing 35.41 per cent, while Obi polled 23,402 responses, representing 33.86 per cent.

The figures put Tinubu 1.55 percentage points ahead of Obi, based on the published percentages. Former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, the ADC presidential candidate, finished third with 18,430 responses, representing 26.67 per cent of the total.

The result points to a closely contested three-way race among Tinubu, Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar, although the poll should not be interpreted as a prediction of the eventual outcome of the 2027 election.

The geographical distribution of the responses presented a more complex picture. Tinubu recorded the highest number of responses in 20 states and the Federal Capital Territory, while Obi and Atiku each led in eight states.

Tinubu’s reported support extended into several northern states where he did not emerge as the leading presidential candidate in the 2023 election. He recorded the highest number of responses in Kaduna, Katsina and Gombe, states won by Atiku in 2023.

The President also led in Kano, where Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party won the presidential election in 2023.

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At the geopolitical-zone level, Tinubu led in the South-West, North-West and North-Central, while Obi recorded the strongest showing in the South-East and South-South. Atiku dominated the North-East.

Tinubu’s strongest regional performance came in the South-West, where he received 10,968 responses, representing 43.53 per cent of participation in the zone. He also led in the North-West with 4,129 responses, representing 43.10 per cent, while his 6,370 responses in the North-Central accounted for 36.97 per cent of participation.

Obi recorded his strongest performance in the South-East, where he secured 5,796 responses, representing 63.97 per cent of the region’s participation. He also led in the South-South with 2,389 responses, representing 41.48 per cent.

Atiku’s strongest regional showing came in the North-East, where he received 1,235 responses, accounting for 55.46 per cent of participation in the zone.

The regional figures underline the different political bases of the three leading contenders. While Tinubu recorded a broader geographical spread in the poll, Obi maintained a commanding position in the South-East and a lead in the South-South, while Atiku’s strongest support remained concentrated in the North-East.

Some state-level contests were particularly close. In Kogi State, Tinubu received 39 responses, compared with 38 for Atiku and 33 for Obi, out of 110 responses recorded.

The Federal Capital Territory recorded a considerably larger number of participants. Tinubu polled 5,599 responses against Obi’s 5,278, giving the President a lead of 321 responses, while Atiku received 3,954.

In Rivers State, Tinubu also finished ahead of Obi, polling 975 responses against Obi’s 892, while Atiku received 568.

Beyond the three leading contenders, Omoyele Sowore received 1,016 responses, followed by Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde with 519 and former President Goodluck Jonathan with 284.

Other candidates recorded significantly smaller figures, with Anita Zugwai-Chukwu receiving 18 responses, Sandy Onor six and Prince Kennedy Ahanotu two.

The poll also recorded 638 participants who selected “I Do Not Trust Any Candidate Yet”, while 204 respondents were undecided and 122 selected “Other Candidate”.

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One of the most significant features of the exercise was the concentration of participation in a relatively small number of locations. Lagos and the FCT accounted for 54.44 per cent of all responses, meaning more than half of the final dataset came from the two locations.

The final dataset also contained 56 diaspora responses, which were excluded from the six domestic geopolitical-zone tallies.

The distribution of responses varied considerably from state to state. While Lagos and the FCT recorded tens of thousands of responses combined, some states had fewer than 100 participants. This variation is important when interpreting state-by-state comparisons and the broader national figures.

Oxford-Metro Analytics describes the exercise as an open public-pulse poll rather than a conventional scientific opinion survey. The organisation says its platform applies measures designed to identify duplicate submissions, suspicious voting patterns and other forms of manipulation.

However, the poll’s own methodology makes clear that it should not be regarded as a population-representative scientific poll or an official election forecast. The results reflect the preferences expressed by people who participated in the online exercise and were approved for inclusion in the final dataset.

That distinction is particularly important ahead of the 2027 Nigerian presidential election, as the actual electorate will be determined by registered voters who participate in the election conducted by the Independent National Electoral Commission.

The Oxford-Metro figures nevertheless provide an indication of the political preferences expressed by participants in the exercise and highlight the competitiveness of the emerging presidential contest.

Tinubu’s narrow national lead over Obi contrasts with the stronger regional leads recorded by the two opposition contenders in their respective areas of strength. The figures also show Atiku retaining significant support in the North-East despite trailing Tinubu and Obi nationally.

The results could therefore fuel further debate among political parties and supporters about the strength of the major candidates as preparations for the 2027 presidential election intensify.

For Tinubu, the poll’s most notable feature is the reported lead across the South-West, North-West and North-Central, alongside gains in northern states where other candidates performed strongly in 2023.

For Obi, the figures reinforce his continued dominance among participants in the South-East and his lead in the South-South. Atiku’s performance in the North-East, meanwhile, points to his continuing regional strength.

Overall, the Oxford-Metro exercise places Tinubu on 35.41 per cent, Obi on 33.86 per cent and Atiku on 26.67 per cent among the 69,110 approved responses.

With the difference between Tinubu and Obi standing at just 1,067 responses, the figures indicate a close contest within the poll, while the significant regional variations suggest that the geographical distribution of political support could remain a major factor in the build-up to the 2027 election.

2027: Tinubu Edges Peter Obi by 1.55 Points in Oxford-Metro Poll