Tinubu Unpopular, Yet 2027 Re-election Still Possible — The Economist

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu may be facing widespread dissatisfaction among Nigerians, but a divided opposition, religious considerations, incumbency and low voter turnout could shape the outcome of the 2027 presidential election, according to an analysis by the British publication, The Economist.

In a report titled “Nigerians Dislike Their President, But May Re-elect Him Anyway,” the publication examined the political dynamics surrounding the forthcoming presidential election and questioned why the President appears relatively confident about his chances despite the economic and security challenges confronting the country.

The analysis was published as Nigeria approaches the 2027 presidential election, with The Economist noting that Tinubu’s administration is operating amid a worsening security situation and economic pressures that have affected many households.

The publication specifically examined the situation in Borno State, where insurgency has persisted for years, damaging economic activities and leaving many young people without jobs and businesses struggling.

It noted that while Tinubu secured 54 per cent of the presidential vote in Borno in 2023, recent polling cited from SBM Intelligence suggested that his popularity in the state had fallen behind those of opposition figures Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar.

The report said some residents of Maiduguri were prepared to express their dissatisfaction at the ballot box.

However, The Economist argued that public dissatisfaction alone might not determine the election, pointing to several structural factors within Nigeria’s political system.

One of the major factors identified was the fragmentation of the opposition.

The publication observed that Obi and Atiku had not formed a joint ticket, meaning that voters opposed to the ruling All Progressives Congress could be divided among different candidates.

It quoted Joachim MacEbong of Control Risks as saying that because there was no united opposition ticket, the anti-APC vote was not necessarily being consolidated behind one candidate.

The publication also identified incumbency as another factor in Nigerian elections, noting that sitting governments have access to established political structures and resources that can be mobilised during campaigns.

Religion was also discussed in the analysis, particularly in relation to northern Nigeria.

The Economist noted that Tinubu and Vice-President Kashim Shettima are Muslims, as are the majority of people in the northern region.

It quoted SBM Intelligence chief Cheta Nwanze as saying that the continued Muslim-Muslim ticket “resonates with quite a number of people”.

The report also suggested that religious identity could affect some voters considering Peter Obi, a Catholic, despite his Muslim running mate.

Beyond party politics and religion, the publication highlighted what it described as political cynicism among some voters.

It quoted MacEbong as saying that in communities where citizens have experienced prolonged shortages of security, healthcare and quality education, expectations of government can become increasingly low.

The report cited Borno as an example, saying that some residents might judge the government differently because of the long history of poor public services in the state.

The security situation could also affect voter participation.

According to the publication, turnout in Borno during the 2023 presidential election was below 20 per cent, compared with about 27 per cent nationwide.

It suggested that insecurity could discourage some voters from travelling to polling units during the next election.

In southern Nigeria, particularly Lagos, the report noted that regional identity could also influence voting behaviour, with some residents potentially considering Tinubu as a “son” of the state despite dissatisfaction over economic conditions.

The Economist also acknowledged that Tinubu’s economic reforms, including the removal of the petrol subsidy, have been welcomed by some investors and have contributed to economic adjustments.

However, it said the reforms had yet to translate into noticeable improvements in the daily lives of many Nigerians.

The publication consequently presented the 2027 contest as one in which economic hardship and insecurity could coexist with political factors capable of shaping voter behaviour.

The analysis has generated debate in Nigeria, particularly over whether dissatisfaction with the administration would translate into a consolidated opposition vote.

The 2027 presidential contest is expected to feature Tinubu and several opposition candidates, making the configuration of alliances and the distribution of votes among the major contenders significant factors in the election.

The Economist’s report is an analysis of the factors that could influence the 2027 contest; it is not a poll establishing the eventual winner.

Tinubu Unpopular, Yet 2027 Re-election Still Possible — The Economist

‘Tinubu Must Stay’ Movement Launches Ahead of 2027 Election

A political advocacy group, Tinubu Must Stay (TMS), has launched a national campaign ahead of the 2027 general election, calling for continuity in President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration.

The movement was formally unveiled in Abuja on Thursday, October 1, 2026, with its National Convener, Ibrahim Uba, saying the organisation would promote its position through public engagement, data and what it described as fact-based communication.

Uba said the group was established by Nigerians who support the continuation of the Tinubu administration and want the government’s policies, programmes and reported achievements subjected to public discussion.

He acknowledged that major economic reforms, particularly the removal of the petrol subsidy and changes to the foreign-exchange system, had increased pressure on households through higher living, transportation and energy costs.

However, he argued that the reforms should also be assessed against their stated objectives, measurable outcomes and unresolved challenges.

According to Uba, TMS will operate around three main areas: presenting what it calls fact-based responses to criticisms of the administration, providing alternative explanations of government programmes based on available evidence, and increasing civic engagement ahead of the 2027 election.

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The group cited recent economic indicators in making its case. Uba referred to Nigeria’s reported 4.43 per cent real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 4.23 per cent in the same quarter of 2025 and 3.89 per cent in the first quarter of 2026. He also cited the reported moderation in headline inflation in August.

Uba, however, said economic statistics should not be used to dismiss the difficulties faced by Nigerians, arguing that government programmes should ultimately be assessed by their impact on citizens.

The movement also highlighted the Nigerian Education Loan Fund (NELFUND), the 3 Million Technical Talent (3MTT) programme, the National Health Fellows Programme and NG-CARES among initiatives it believes should feature in assessments of the administration.

On infrastructure, TMS cited projects including the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, Sokoto-Badagry Super Highway and Abuja-Kaduna-Zaria-Kano Road, as well as housing projects under the Renewed Hope Housing Programme.

The group also pointed to the Federal Government’s Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) programme, saying it was part of efforts to provide alternatives to petrol and reduce transportation costs following the removal of the subsidy.

On security, Uba acknowledged that insecurity remains a major challenge, while saying government operations against terrorism, banditry, kidnapping, oil theft and other violent crimes had been intensified.

He said the movement would encourage Nigerians to examine both the administration’s reported achievements and the problems that remain unresolved as political activity ahead of the 2027 presidential election intensifies.

The launch of TMS adds to the growing number of political advocacy groups organising around President Tinubu’s political future. While TMS is campaigning for continuity, other groups have adopted opposing positions and are calling for a change of government in 2027.

Uba said TMS would pursue its campaign through what he described as peaceful, factual and democratic engagement, urging Nigerians to assess competing claims about the administration before making their choices in the election.

‘Tinubu Must Stay’ Movement Launches Ahead of 2027 Election

NDC Protests Police Cancellation of Obi-Kwankwaso March in Akwa Ibom

The Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) and the Obidient Movement in Akwa Ibom State have protested the cancellation of a planned two-million-man march for Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso in Uyo.

The march, organised in support of the NDC presidential candidate, Peter Obi, and his running mate, Rabiu Kwankwaso, was scheduled for Thursday, October 1, 2026, to coincide with Nigeria’s Independence Day celebration.

The Akwa Ibom State Police Command, however, directed all political parties, groups and associations to reschedule rallies, meetings, processions and other political activities earlier approved for the day.

In a statement signed by the state Police Public Relations Officer, DSP Timfon John, the command said the decision followed intelligence indicating that some individuals might exploit scheduled political activities to cause disturbances and threaten public peace.

The police said the directive was issued in the interest of public safety and security and applied across Akwa Ibom State.

Addressing journalists in Uyo, the state director of the Obidient Movement, Benjamin Smith, expressed anger over the cancellation, describing the decision as an afterthought.

Smith said the movement had previously engaged the police over the proposed march and claimed that the Commissioner of Police, CP Baba Azare, had initially approved the event.

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According to him, representatives of the party and the organising committee met with the police on September 29. He said the police subsequently raised concerns about the availability of personnel to provide security for a gathering of the proposed size.

Smith said the police also cited the fact that the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) had been scheduled to hold its own rally in the state from October 1 to 3, raising concerns about possible clashes between supporters of the different political groups.

The Obidient Movement director claimed that more than N20 million had already been spent on mobilisation across Akwa Ibom’s 31 local government areas before the police directive was issued.

He accused the police of violating the group’s rights to peaceful assembly and said the NDC and its supporters would oppose any future cancellation of the event.

Smith, however, urged supporters to remain law-abiding and said a new date for the march would be announced.

The cancellation was followed by the reported arrest of Elijah Noah, the Akwa Ibom coordinator of the Obi-Kwankwaso Movement, during efforts to stop supporters from proceeding with the march in Uyo. Premium Times reported that Noah was arrested after the police directive cancelling previously approved political processions for October 1. (premiumtimesng.com)

The development occurred amid heightened political mobilisation ahead of the 2027 general elections, with the Obi-Kwankwaso camp stepping up activities across the country.

The cancellation and subsequent confrontation have brought renewed attention to the balance between political gatherings, public safety and the right to peaceful assembly as parties and political movements intensify preparations for the 2027 elections.

NDC Protests Police Cancellation of Obi-Kwankwaso March in Akwa Ibom