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From Obasanjo to Buhari… how FG’s debt profile surged 86.8% to N26.9trn in 21 years
Nigeria’s public debt has been on the rise. Despite securing debt relief during the Olusegun Obasanjo-led administration, successive governments have continued on a borrowing spree — the federal government’s component of the public debt surging 86.8 percent to N26.9 trillion in the last 21 years.
This has raised concerns among Nigerians on the debt sustainability of the country amid dwindling revenue to meet the debt obligations to creditors.
Within two weeks, the senate approved three different loan requests by President Muhammadu Buhari.
On July 7, 2021, the upper chamber approved a loan request of N2.343 trillion, approximately $6 billion and another $8.3 billion and €490 million.
Defending one of the loan requests, the Debt Management Office (DMO) said it is part of a borrowing plan for the 2021 budget.
“The proposed new capital raising is the new external borrowing provided in the 2021 Appropriation Act to part finance the deficit in the budget. In other words, the new capital raising has already been approved in the budgetary process by the executive and legislative arms of government,” the DMO had said in a statement.
As of March 2021, Nigeria’s total public debt has hit N33.1 trillion ($87.24 billion) — an accumulation of borrowings from successive governments, of which most were borrowed since the return to democratic rule in 1999.
The overall public debt is the total debt accrued by federal, states, and the FCT from local and international lenders.
Of the N33.1 trillion, the federal government alone borrowed N26.91 trillion — this includes the FGN bonds, Sukuk, green bonds and Euro bonds.
Finally, after weeks of data aggregation, number crunching, dissecting and analyses of freedom of information (FOI) response from the Debt Management Office (DMO), TheCable presents findings that highlight how Nigeria’s aggressive borrowing defies its fiscal responsibility laws.
The analyses also include data from the DMO, National Bureau of Statistical (NBS), and fiscal papers from the Budget Office of the Federation.
FG DEBT CLIMBED 86.8% TO N26.9 TRILLION IN 21 YEARS
Data from the DMO seen by TheCable showed that federal government borrowings (local and foreign debt) climbed from N3.55 trillion in 1999 to N26.91 trillion at the end of March 2021 (the country’s latest official figure).
This represents an 86.8 percent increase in 21 years, comprising the administrations of Olusegun Obasanjo, Umar Musa Yar’Adua, Goodluck Jonathan, and the current Muhammadu Buhari.
From Obasanjo to Buhari… how FG’s debt profile surged 86.8% to N26.9trn in 21 years
HOW MUCH BUHARI BORROWED IN 6 YEARS
The Budget Office’s medium-term expenditure framework and fiscal strategy paper from 2015 showed that the Buhari-led administration incurred N7.63 trillion in domestic debt from June 2015 to December 2020.
On external borrowings, President Buhari increased debt from $7.3 billion in 2015 to $28.57 billion as of December 2020. This means that the president incurred $21.27 billion on foreign loans to the country’s debt portfolio.
The country’s exchange rate moved from N197 to a dollar in 2015 to N381 at the end of December 2020.
Analysis of consolidated debt showed that the external debt increased by 291.37 percent while domestic debt grew by 86.31 percent in the last six years of the Buhari government.
Overall, the Buhari-led government has had an accumulated debt of N17.06 trillion as of March 2021, using the N381 exchange rate. This represents a 173.2 percent increase from when he was elected president in 2015.
public debt
DEBT PROFILE UNDER JONATHAN’S ADMINISTRATION
At the beginning of former President Goodluck Jonathan’s tenure in 2011, the federal government had an accumulated debt of N6.17 trillion.
Analysis of the debt figure showed that local debt amounted to N5.62 trillion while foreign debt stood at $3.5 billion (about N548.65 billion, using the exchange rate of N156.7/$1).
By the end of 2015, the foreign debt component hit $7.3 billion, while domestic debt increased by N8.4 trillion. The country’s exchange rate also stood at N197/$1.
Overall, the federal government component of the total public debt increased from N6.17 trillion in 2011 to N9.8 trillion in 2015, representing an increase of N4.18 trillion or 74.37 percent.
public debt
YAR’ADUA/JONATHAN’S BORROWINGS
Under the Umar Musa Yar’Adua/Goodluck Jonathan-led government between 2007 and 2011, domestic debt of the federal government moved from N2.17 trillion to N5.62 trillion. The foreign component of the debt also increased from $2.11 billion to $3.5 billion within the period.
The country’s exchange rate also moved from N116.8/$1 to N156.7/$1.
The combined debt profile increased from N2.42 trillion to N6.17 trillion in four years, representing a 155 percent jump.
Of the debt figure, Jonathan completed the tenure from May 2010 to May 2011 after the death of Yar’Adua. The period saw a surge in the federal government’s debt from N4.94 trillion to N6.17 trillion. This represents a 37.4 percent increase in one year.
OLUSEGUN OBASANJO’S TENURE
During the tenure of former president Olusegun Obasanjo, the debt level of the federal government reduced from N3.55 trillion in 1999 to N2.42 trillion at the end of 2007.
The 8-year term of Obasanjo resulted in a dip in FG’s local and foreign debt level, representing a 32 percent decline.
The country’s exchange rate was between N98.02 to N116.8 to a dollar during the tenure.
Analysis of the figures showed that external debt decreased from $28.04 billion by 1999 to $2.11 billion at the end of 2007. However, the domestic component increased from N798 billion to N2.17 trillion within the same period.
The huge decline in foreign debt was a result of the substantial reduction following the pay-off of the outstanding debts owed to the London Clubs of Creditors in the first quarter of 2007.
BUHARI, NIGERIA’S BIGGEST BORROWER, VIOLATING FINANCIAL LAWS
So far, Buhari is the country’s biggest borrower, increasing public debt (FG component) by more than 173 percent. Next to the Buhari government is the Yar’Adua/Jonathan administration with a 155 percent surge in borrowing.
The current government violates important financial laws in the country — the Fiscal Responsibility Act, and the CBN Act 2007.
Last year, the government exceeded the fiscal borrowing threshold as stipulated in the fiscal act.
Zainab Ahmed, minister of finance, budget and national planning, admitted to this on the grounds that COVID-19 was good enough reason to breach the act.
The fiscal responsibility law provides a limit of three percent debt threshold for sustainability, but the president can “exceed the ceiling if there is a clear and present threat to national security or sovereignty of Nigeria”.
In 2020, the country’s budget deficit was at about four percent of GDP, clearly breaking the law.
On overdraft, section 38, sub-section 1 and 2, of the CBN Act, said, “the Bank may grant temporary advances to the Federal Government in respect of temporary deficiency of budget revenue” and “the total amount of such advances outstanding shall not at any time exceed 5 percent of the previous year’s actual revenue of the Federal Government”.
By the end of 2020, CBN overdrafts to the Buhari government exceeded the limit by 69 percent of the revenue generated in 2019 – in a blatant violation of the apex bank rules. The government’s revenue in the year was N4.1 trillion, and overdraft stood at N2.9 trillion.
Also, Nigeria’s borrowing limit as a percent of GDP stood at 34.8 percent in 2020, well above 25 percent for the year. Earlier this year, the federal executive council (FEC) had strategically raised the borrowing limit to 40 percent in its Medium-term debt management strategy for Nigeria for the period 2020-2023.
While Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP is lower than those of its peers, its debt-to-revenue is too low to sustain the country. Of every N100 government makes in revenue, N97 now goes to debt servicing.
In the last four administrations, only Obasanjo’s team reduced public debt; his government recorded a 32 percent decline with the London Club agreement.
INCREASING PUBLIC DEBT WORRYING
While borrowing is required to support the economy, sustainability transparency and sustainable repayment plan are crucial.
Femi Oke, an economist, said Nigeria’s soaring high debt profile is not good for the country.
“The Nigerian government borrows in the worst possible way and in a very outdated manner. This causes a backlash to the government. Because Nigeria’s debts are not linked to any assets, we just go to the treasury bill market and borrow, at any rate, that anybody wants to give you,” he said.
“There are many other countries who borrow more than what Nigeria is borrowing and don’t have any problem paying back. They borrow intelligently and efficiently, in a way that their debts service themselves.
“A more efficient way of borrowing is for the Federal Government to migrate all the debts to asset-linked debts. This means structuring the borrowing transaction like investments. There must be an underlying asset to which borrowers can use to recover the principal they gave the country plus profit.”
Vahyala Kwaga, senior researcher and policy analyst at BudgIT, said the level of borrowing – specifically in 2021- is the highest it has been in the last six years.
“The government is borrowing more, spending more and earning less revenue. For context, the government budgeted about N5.37 trillion in revenue in 2020 but only earned a total of N3.42 trillion,” Kwaga said.
“There is also no commensurate rise in revenue to counteract the continuing rise in debt servicing. A casual look at the debt servicing level from 2015 to 2020 shows that the level has steadily increased since then.
“These amounts include debt servicing on interests for ‘ways and means’ and ‘sinking fund to retire maturing Loans.’”
NIGERIA’S ACTUAL DEBT COULD BE 48.7TRN
Wilson Erumebor, a senior economist at Nigerian Economic Summit Group, said Nigeria is a case where expenditure keeps rising, revenue not improving as expected, creating a wide fiscal deficit that is majorly financed by borrowing.
“While borrowing is required to support the economy, especially given the impact of the pandemic, what we need to be concerned about is how sustainable Nigeria’s debt position is,” he said.
“Debt has risen N33.1 trillion as of March 2021, an increase of 162.7% in the space of about five years.
“When we include AMCON’s liabilities and CBN’s ways and means, debt could amount to about N48.7 trillion, which is around 32 percent of GDP.
“Debt to GDP may seem quite low at 32 percent, we must understand that debt is serviced with revenues, so if debt servicing is increasing and revenue is not performing, then we have a problem.”
Erumebor suggests that the federal government must improve efficiency, transparency, blocking leakages, and deliver value on public projects, despite limited resources.
“We must work towards unlocking many sectors and many areas where the country can earn revenue.”
In 2020, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said Nigeria’s low debt-to-GDP ratio is highly vulnerable to shocks.
“Despite Nigeria’s relatively low debt level, liquidity-based indicators-driven by low revenue mobilisation-remain concerning, with the interest bill representing a high share of government revenue (but low relative to GDP),” IMF said in its country’s report for Nigeria.
“Stress scenarios confirm the vulnerability of public debt to a low growth/wide primary deficit scenario. The interest-to-revenue ratio is particularly vulnerable to a real interest rate shock but remains sustainable.”
Recently, market researchers at United Capital also expressed concern over the country’s rising debt sustainability risk. “The government has historically justified its rising debt profile by the compliant debt-to-GDP ratio of less than 30.0%,” the research firm said.
“However, we reiterate our position that the FG’s debt service cost as a percentage of revenue is a fairer reflection of the country’s debt sustainability position.”
At an overall public debt of N33.1 trillion ($87.24 billion), the implication remains that every Nigerian owes both local and foreign organisations N165, 500.
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EFCC Acted Lawfully in Freezing Osun Account – Falana
EFCC Acted Lawfully in Freezing Osun Account – Falana
Senior Advocate of Nigeria and human rights lawyer, Femi Falana, has declared that the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) did not act illegally by restricting the Osun State Government’s statutory allocation account. He cited landmark court judgments that affirm the anti-graft agency’s powers to investigate state finances, while also faulting President Bola Tinubu’s intervention on procedural grounds.
The controversy surrounding the EFCC’s decision to place a Post-No-Debit restriction on an Osun State Government account domiciled with First Bank has sparked intense debate across the country. The commission disclosed that the action was part of an ongoing investigation into the alleged fraudulent handling of approximately ₦11 billion in Ecology Funds, Intervention Funds, and Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) allocations . According to the EFCC, investigators detected what it described as “precipitate and unwarranted movement of funds” from the account to various corporate entities beginning on August 2, 2026, prompting the need for swift intervention to prevent further diversion of public resources . The commission clarified that the restriction applied to only one account and was not a blanket freeze on all state government finances, a distinction that has been largely overlooked in public discourse surrounding the matter . The EFCC’s Director of Public Affairs, Wilson Uwujaren, defended the action, stating that the commission derived its powers from Section 34 of the EFCC Act and Section 7(6) of the Money Laundering (Prevention and Prohibition) Act, 2022 .
Falana made his declaration on Friday during an appearance on Channels Television’s Politics Today, wading into the controversy with a clear legal opinion that sought to clarify the legal basis for the EFCC’s action. The senior lawyer stated categorically that “as far as the law is concerned, the EFCC has not acted illegally” . He explained that under Nigerian law, the commission possesses the legal authority to freeze accounts belonging to the federal government, state governments, and local governments, provided it complies with the statutory requirement to obtain a court order within the prescribed period . According to Falana, the EFCC can impose a temporary restriction on an account for up to 72 hours without judicial authorisation, after which it must secure a court order to maintain the freeze . He maintained that the commission followed this legal framework in the Osun case, noting that the EFCC had indeed approached the Federal High Court, which “intervened based on information provided by the EFCC” . This judicial intervention, he argued, validated the EFCC’s actions under the existing legal framework, and the Osun State Government had appropriately challenged the legality and validity of the court order, rather than merely questioning the timing of the action .
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The legal history of the EFCC’s powers provides important context for understanding the current controversy, and Falana traced this history to demonstrate that the commission’s authority had been repeatedly affirmed by superior courts. He recalled that in 2019, the Federal High Court in Benue State had ruled that the commission lacked the authority to freeze the state government’s account and awarded N50 million in damages against the agency . However, he said the EFCC successfully appealed that decision, and in September 2022, the Court of Appeal overturned the lower court’s ruling, affirming the commission’s power to impose a Post-No-Debit restriction on a government account for up to 72 hours before obtaining a court order . “That remains the law in Nigeria today,” Falana said, emphasising that the Court of Appeal’s decision had not been overturned by any higher court and therefore remained binding on all lower courts and government agencies .
Beyond the Court of Appeal decision, Falana also referenced a 2024 Supreme Court judgment that further solidified the EFCC’s authority to investigate state finances. This judgment arose from a suit instituted by the Kogi State Government and joined by several other states, which challenged the authority of federal anti-corruption agencies to investigate state government finances . Falana stated that the apex court examined all relevant constitutional and statutory provisions and concluded that agencies including the EFCC, the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC), and the Nigerian Financial Intelligence Unit (NFIU) have the power to probe accounts at the federal, state, and local government levels . He added that anyone dissatisfied with the existing legal framework should seek an amendment through the National Assembly rather than questioning the EFCC’s statutory mandate . “If Nigerians—those who are concerned—want the law changed, they can go to the National Assembly. But for now, as of today, EFCC has the power to freeze the account of any state and, in not more than 72 hours, has to go to court,” he said, making it clear that the legal question had been definitively settled .
The political dimension of the controversy emerged when President Bola Tinubu directed the EFCC to approach the court to vacate the order and discontinue the restriction, citing concerns about the timing so close to the August 15 Osun State governorship election . Tinubu stated that he was “deeply embarrassed” by the timing of the action, although he acknowledged the commission acted within its statutory powers by obtaining the court order . He said preserving public confidence in the integrity and credibility of the election informed his decision, a position that drew both support and criticism from various quarters . The President’s intervention raised questions about the appropriate limits of executive authority in relation to independent anti-corruption agencies, and whether such intervention could set a dangerous precedent for future investigations .
Falana, however, faulted President Tinubu’s intervention, arguing that the President ought to have respected the statutory independence of the EFCC and acted through the Attorney-General under Section 174 of the Constitution . He stated, “In intervening in the Osun State crisis, President Tinubu ought to have respected the independent status of the EFCC and the due process of law. As far as the law is concerned, the EFCC chairman is not at the beck and call of the President” . Falana noted that the Osun State Government had already taken legal steps to challenge the freezing order before Tinubu intervened, meaning the matter should have been resolved through the judicial process rather than through a direct presidential instruction to the anti-graft agency . He suggested that Tinubu could have directed the Attorney-General to take over the case under Section 174, with a view to withdrawing the case or not opposing the motion filed by the Osun State Government to vacate the ex parte order . Despite faulting the procedure, Falana appeared to welcome the eventual move towards restoring access to the state government’s funds, quoting William Shakespeare: “All is well that ends well” , indicating his pragmatic acceptance of the resolution while still criticising the process .
Looking beyond the immediate controversy, Falana also warned against establishing a precedent under which anti-corruption agencies would be expected to suspend investigations merely because an election is approaching . He argued that such an approach could provide governments with a window to move public funds without scrutiny during election periods, warning that “we must be very careful that we don’t give a dangerous impression that when elections are 10 days away, 20 days away, 30 days away, the anti-graft agencies must turn the other eye” . This warning reflects broader concerns about the integrity of electoral processes and the need for continued oversight of public finances, particularly during periods when governments may be tempted to use state resources for political purposes . Falana’s comments underscore the delicate balance between ensuring free and fair elections and maintaining robust anti-corruption enforcement, a balance that Nigerian authorities continue to navigate in practice .
EFCC Acted Lawfully in Freezing Osun Account – Falana
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Osun election: Police pledge neutrality, warn against vote buying, violence
Osun election: Police pledge neutrality, warn against vote buying, violence
The Nigeria Police Force has assured residents of Osun State that it will remain neutral, professional and impartial during the August 15, 2026 governorship election, warning politicians, supporters and other stakeholders against vote buying, violence and electoral offences.
Inspector-General of Police Tunji Disu gave the assurance during a meeting with civil society organisations (CSOs) led by the Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre (CISLAC) in Abuja.
Disu said the police had no political interest in the outcome of the Osun governorship election, stressing that the force’s responsibility was to provide a secure environment where eligible voters could freely exercise their constitutional rights.
He said police officers deployed for election duties had been reminded of their constitutional obligation to enforce the law impartially and protect voters, candidates, electoral officials and other participants regardless of political affiliation.
“The Nigeria Police Force remains a professional, apolitical and impartial institution. We have no candidate, no political party and no vested interest in the outcome of the election other than ensuring that the lawful choice of the people prevails,” Disu said.
The IGP said adequate police personnel and operational assets had been deployed across the state, while intelligence gathering and threat assessments had been strengthened to identify and prevent potential security threats.
According to him, the police are also working with the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the Inter-Agency Consultative Committee on Election Security (ICCES) and other relevant stakeholders to ensure effective coordination before, during and after the election.
Disu specifically warned that individuals involved in vote buying, voter intimidation, ballot-box snatching, political thuggery and other electoral offences would face the full weight of the law, irrespective of their political connections or status.
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He also appealed to political parties and their supporters to conduct themselves peacefully, saying no political ambition should be allowed to result in the loss of lives or disruption of the electoral process.
The police chief urged eligible voters in Osun to participate in the election without fear and encouraged residents to report suspicious activities to security personnel.
The assurance comes amid increased attention on the security situation and the neutrality of law enforcement agencies ahead of the Osun 2026 governorship election.
Civil society organisations have continued to stress the importance of security agencies maintaining neutrality, particularly in view of concerns about electoral violence, voter intimidation and vote buying.
CISLAC Executive Director Auwal Rafsanjani said civil society organisations remained committed to working with security agencies and other stakeholders to promote a peaceful, credible and violence-free election.
Yiaga Africa Executive Director Samson Itodo also described the Osun governorship election as an important test for Nigeria’s electoral institutions ahead of the 2027 general election.
Itodo stressed that the neutrality and professionalism of security agencies would be crucial to strengthening public confidence in the electoral process.
Election-monitoring organisations have similarly identified security threats and voter inducement as issues requiring close attention ahead of the poll.
Yiaga Africa has announced the deployment of 332 observers across Osun State’s 30 local government areas and the state Area Office to monitor the election and provide independent assessments of the electoral process.
The organisation has urged political parties and candidates to prioritise peaceful campaigns and respect the rights of voters, while calling on security agencies to enforce electoral laws fairly.
INEC has also been intensifying preparations for the election, including measures aimed at strengthening election security and preventing violence.
The commission has said security personnel assigned to election duties would be required to take an oath of neutrality, reinforcing expectations that officers deployed for the exercise must perform their duties without favouring any candidate or political party.
The August 15 Osun governorship election is expected to attract significant attention as one of the major electoral exercises before the 2027 general election.
With concerns over vote buying, political violence, voter inducement and security neutrality, the conduct of security personnel and the ability of law enforcement agencies to respond impartially to electoral offences will be critical to the credibility of the poll.
For voters, political parties and civil society groups, the expectation is that all stakeholders will respect the rules, reject violence and allow eligible citizens to freely determine the next governor of Osun State.
Osun election: Police pledge neutrality, warn against vote buying, violence
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