International

Russia and Ukraine’s battle for Donbas could decide the war — and it could go either way

Published

4 years ago

April 20, 2022

Ukrainian soldiers stand on their armored personnel carrier (APC), not far from the front-line with Russian troops, in Izyum district, Kharkiv region on April 18, 2022.

Russia’s war with Ukraine entered a new phase this week with Moscow focusing its war machine on eastern Ukraine.
The move is seen as a bid for Russia to cement its grip on the Donbas — an area which includes two breakaway, pro-Russian self-proclaimed “republics” — and to try to annex it.
How Russia’s latest offensive goes in the Donbas region could prove to be extremely significant and decisive in the war against Ukraine, analysts warn.
It could determine how Ukraine’s territorial boundaries look in weeks and years to come.

Russia’s new offensive in the Donbas region could prove to be extremely significant and decisive in the war, analysts warn, and could determine how the country’s territorial boundaries look in weeks and years to come.

“The Russian war machine in the east could prove to be a very painful threat for Ukraine quickly,” Maximilian Hess, fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, told CNBC Tuesday.

“It’s quite clear that Russia’s war aims remain quite extensive,” Hess added, saying that how the battle for Donbas proceeds “will determine how much of Ukraine east of the Dnipro (a river that bisects Ukraine) that [Russian President Vladimir] Putin carves away.”

“I think it’s pretty clear annexation is Putin’s long term goal, how much annexation is the question,” Hess added.

Russian officials have stated that their main objectives in this new phase of the war is the “complete liberation” of the two breakaway, Russian-backed “People’s Republics” of Luhansk and Donetsk. But most analysts believe that the wider Donbas region, an industrialized area rich in coal reserves, will be annexed by Russia.

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Moscow has fomented separatist sentiment in the region over the last eight years ever since it annexed Crimea in 2014, although it denies backing the region’s rebels.

Russia’s long-anticipated offensive in the east appeared to begin in earnest on Monday with its military forces unleashing attacks on a number of areas, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy saying that “the battle for Donbas” had begun.

By Tuesday morning, Russia’s defense ministry claimed to have struck more than 1,200 targets in Ukraine overnight and later that day, there were numerous reports of intensifying rocket and artillery fire in eastern Ukraine. Officials said Russian forces have seized control of Kreminna, a city in the Luhansk region where street battles reportedly took place.

Wednesday morning, the U.K.’s defense ministry said in an intelligence update that Ukrainian forces were repelling “numerous attempted advances” by Russia in the eastern Donbas region.

The re-focusing on eastern Ukraine comes after Russia pulled back many of its troops from areas around the capital Kyiv and other northern parts of the country after failing to make military gains there. The Pentagon believes that Russia has significantly increased its fighting power in eastern and southern Ukraine now, however, with more battalion tactical groups moved to the area last weekend.

Weapons depleted

Allied global leaders discussed the new phase of Russia’s invasion in a video call on Tuesday with a number of countries, including the U.S. and U.K., promising to send more artillery systems to Ukraine while others, like Germany, pledged more money to help Ukraine buy more weapons.

Just how quickly any new weapons will reach Ukraine is a moot point, with concerns that the war-torn country could struggle to re-arm itself quickly in the east, particularly if Russia increases the frequency of its attacks on its ammunition depots.

Sam Cranny-Evans, a research analyst at the British defense think tank RUSI, told CNBC Tuesday that there was much uncertainty over how the battle for Donbas will progress, and that while both sides will have depleted their respective materiel (military materials and equipment) over the last two months, Ukraine could be in a more vulnerable position.

“The one thing that I’m quite comfortable to say is that I think it [the battle] is going to last a very long time” with both sides having demonstrated “staying power,” he noted.

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“There are a few questions surrounding the availability of ammunition for the Ukrainians and that can become a key problem, especially in the opening phases of mass artillery barrages and airstrikes. If you don’t have the munitions to return fire against those kinds of things then they do have a dramatic psychological effect and a physical effect, and they do destroy things, obviously.”

Nonetheless, he noted that Russia too was “probably on a fairly limited clock in terms of what it can do with its personnel capabilities, and with its material capabilities.”

“The Russians have spent an awful lot of missiles in this war so far, which will be quite hard for it to replace … and there’s the additional questions of how much attrition will the Ukrainians inflict on them in Donbas,” he said.

Cranny-Evans said it’s not impossible to foresee a situation in which the Ukrainians are able to push back against the Russians in Donbas, as they have shown themselves doggedly capable of doing elsewhere.

“If they can organize, and if they can equip their troops adequately, they may be able to do that. And some analysts are cautiously optimistic that Ukraine might even be able to win this war … a lot really does pivot on the next phase of the conflict and it will show which side is likely to win,” he noted.

Who ‘wins’?

The reason analysts find it hard to assess how significant the battle of Donbas could turn out to be in the wider war is that it’s hard to gauge what Putin’s ultimate objectives are in Ukraine.

RUSI’s Cranny-Evans noted that the big question remains whether, by focusing on its self-proclaimed mission to “liberate” Donbas, Putin has abandoned his “maximalist aim of regime change in Ukraine and capturing Kyiv” or whether it might accept a more limited victory in the east.

For Ukraine, he said, there could be a difficult price to pay if it loses the battle for Donbas and Russia annexes the region. In any case, defining the winner and loser of the war will be no easy task amid the already-immense destruction seen in Ukraine.

“[You could say] that Ukraine has won because its country still exists but if it does lose Donbass entirely, is that really a victory? Does it mean that peace will last forever? Or will Ukraine have to fight another war in 10 years time? There is a lot of stake for the Ukrainians,” Cranny-Evans said.

In its assessment of what the next phase of the conflict might entail, the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War said Monday that Russia’s offensive “is unlikely to be dramatically more successful than previous Russian offensives” but cautioned that its forces “may be able to wear down Ukrainian defenders or achieve limited gains.”

The think tank noted that Russian forces had not taken the “operational pause” necessary to “reconstitute” and properly integrate damaged units withdrawn from northeastern Ukraine into operations in eastern Ukraine.

“As we have assessed previously, Russian forces withdrawn from around Kyiv and going back to fight in Donbas have, at best, been patched up and filled out with soldiers from other damaged units, and the Russian military has few, if any, cohesive units not previously deployed to Ukraine to funnel into new operations,” it said.

It added that frequent reports of disastrously low Russian morale and continuing logistical challenges indicate that “the effective combat power of Russian units in eastern Ukraine is a fraction of their on-paper strength in numbers of battalion tactical groups.”

The institute noted that while Russian forces could wear down Ukrainian positions through “heavy concentration of firepower and sheer weight of numbers,” this would come at a “high cost” and that a sudden and dramatic Russian offensive success remains highly unlikely.

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International

Houthis Launch Missile at Saudi Arabia as Regional Tensions Escalate Amid US-Iran Strikes

Published

6 days ago

July 25, 2026

Trends Admin

Houthis Launch Missile at Saudi Arabia as Regional Tensions Escalate Amid US-Iran Strikes

Iran-backed Houthi rebels have claimed responsibility for a missile attack targeting Saudi Arabia, hours after Saudi forces carried out air strikes against Houthi-linked positions in western Yemen, marking a significant escalation in cross-border hostilities amid broader regional tensions in the Middle East. According to the group’s Ansarollah media outlet on Telegram, the missile attack early Saturday triggered fires in the Saudi city of Jizan, with Saudi authorities reportedly issuing emergency alerts across the province following the incident, sending residents scrambling for safety as air raid sirens sounded through the night. The attack followed Friday’s Saudi air raids on Houthi targets in the Yemeni port city of Hodeida and the nearby Kamaran Island, which the Houthis had vowed to retaliate against, demonstrating the rapid cycle of escalation that has come to characterise the conflict. The exchange of fire underscores the fragility of the ceasefire that had previously reduced hostilities but failed to produce a lasting political settlement, leaving both sides poised for further confrontation.

The latest exchange of hostilities came as the broader Middle East experienced its first night in two weeks without reported air strikes by either the United States or Iran, raising hopes of a potential de-escalation after weeks of intense military confrontation that had pushed the region to the brink of all-out war. The US military refrained from announcing fresh attacks on Iran after carrying out 13 consecutive nights of strikes, during which it hit dozens of Iranian military targets including coastal surveillance and air defence sites, military logistics infrastructure, and maritime capabilities, inflicting significant damage on Tehran’s military assets across the region. During the same period, Iran launched drone attacks against US military installations and bases across the region, and largely halted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz after the re-escalation of attacks, crippling one of the world’s most vital maritime chokepoints and disrupting global oil supplies. Tehran has signalled it could prod its Houthi allies in Yemen to close the Bab al-Mandeb strait at the mouth of the Red Sea if Washington attacks Iran’s infrastructure, according to sources cited by Reuters, further complicating the security landscape in the region and threatening to expand the conflict into a wider maritime confrontation.

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Meanwhile, an Omani delegation arrived in Tehran for discussions on the security of the Strait of Hormuz, according to Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency, signalling ongoing diplomatic efforts to address the crisis even as military tensions escalate on multiple fronts. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held telephone talks with Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi to discuss recent regional developments and the security of commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf, exploring potential avenues for de-escalation through backchannel diplomacy. Oman, which oversees the southern coastline of the strategic waterway, has historically served as a mediator between Iran and Western nations, and its involvement suggests a potential opening for dialogue amid the escalating tensions, offering a glimmer of hope that a diplomatic solution might still be possible.

Speaking at the White House on Friday, US President Donald Trump said diplomatic engagement with Iran was ongoing while warning that military action remained an option, striking a dual-track approach to the crisis that reflected the complexity of the situation facing his administration. “We are talking to them. I think they’re being serious. I think … they are being by far the most serious that we’ve seen them, but that doesn’t mean we get there,” he said, expressing cautious optimism about the prospects for a negotiated settlement while acknowledging the significant hurdles that remain. Responding to questions about his strategy for ending the conflict, Trump outlined two possible paths forward: “There’s a military exit where we just keep going just the way we are, and we can even make it a heavier dose, and it’s knocking out everything they have. Or there’s a smarter strategy that you make a deal,” he said, adding emphatically: “We’re locked and loaded. We’re ready to go.” The president’s remarks reflect the delicate balance Washington is attempting to strike between applying military pressure and pursuing diplomatic resolution, with both options remaining firmly on the table.

Elsewhere, the US military disclosed that it disabled a tanker in the Gulf of Oman on Friday after the vessel allegedly attempted to evade Washington’s blockade on Iranian ports, intensifying the maritime dimension of the conflict and underscoring the growing risks to commercial shipping in the region. Navy Captain Tim Hawkins, spokesman for US Central Command, told AFP that the crew repeatedly ignored warnings after attempting to run the blockade at least four times prior, demonstrating a pattern of defiance that ultimately led to the military response. “US forces on scene disabled the ship after firing into its engine room,” Hawkins said. “The ship is no longer transiting to Iran,” he confirmed, indicating that the vessel had been rendered inoperable and turned back from its intended destination. The ship became the second commercial vessel disabled by US forces since the blockade was reinstated earlier this month, with the US military also forcing 12 other vessels to change course, signalling a determined effort to enforce economic pressure on Tehran through maritime interdiction operations. The incident highlights the escalating confrontation at sea, where Washington is seeking to enforce strict economic pressure on Tehran through maritime interdiction operations, raising the stakes in an already volatile region.

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Growing concerns over threats to commercial shipping in the Red Sea linked to Houthi activities had pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel earlier in the week, marking their highest level since May and raising fears of global economic disruption as energy markets reacted nervously to the escalating tensions. However, prices retreated on Friday, with Brent crude futures falling by more than $4 to just above $96 per barrel, as markets reacted to the successful transit of two Chinese-chartered supertankers through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, alleviating some of the immediate supply concerns that had driven prices higher. The volatility in oil markets underscores the fragility of global energy supply chains amid the ongoing conflict, with traders remaining on edge as they monitor developments in the region closely.

Following the reported missile exchange, Ansarollah media condemned Saudi operations in Yemen, accusing Riyadh of targeting civilian facilities and vowing further retaliation in a statement that signalled the conflict was far from over. “The Saudi enemy’s targeting of civilian facilities in Hodeida and Kamaran island constitutes a dangerous escalation,” the group said, adding: “We affirm that these recent crimes will not go unanswered,” indicating that further attacks against Saudi targets could be expected in the coming days. Saudi officials had not issued an immediate response to the Houthi claims at the time of this report, leaving the situation on the ground unclear and the international community anxiously awaiting further developments.

The United States and the United Kingdom are expected to host a conference in London next week focused on security in the Strait of Hormuz, according to sources cited by Reuters, as Western nations seek to coordinate a response to the growing maritime threat and build an international coalition to protect commercial shipping in the region. The meeting is expected to be attended by US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine, underscoring the high-level attention being devoted to the crisis and the urgency with which Western powers are treating the situation. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is also scheduled to meet President Trump at the White House on Tuesday as diplomatic efforts continue amid persistent regional tensions, with the Israeli leader expected to discuss coordination on Iran policy and regional security arrangements.

Analysts suggest the proposed London conference reflects US efforts to secure international backing for its position, as Washington finds itself at a disadvantage in the ongoing confrontation with Tehran, having failed to rally broad international support for its maximum pressure campaign. However, European nations have expressed concerns about being drawn into direct conflict, with some insisting that any successful maritime security arrangement requires the cessation of hostilities between the US and Iran, a condition that remains elusive given the current trajectory of the conflict. The reluctance of key European allies to fully commit to Washington’s approach highlights the diplomatic challenges facing the United States as it seeks to build a coalition to address the maritime security crisis.

The renewed hostilities come despite a 14-point Memorandum of Understanding signed by the United States and Iran in June, which sought to halt military operations, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and pave the way for ending the conflict within 60 days, representing a brief window of hope for a peaceful resolution. The agreement later collapsed after renewed Iranian attacks on shipping in the strait and subsequent US military strikes, leaving both sides back at square one and raising questions about the prospects for a durable resolution to the crisis as trust between the parties evaporated. As of the time of this report, the situation remains highly volatile, with all parties maintaining their military postures while diplomatic channels continue to operate in the background, offering no clear path forward. The international community watches with bated breath as the Middle East teeters on the edge of a wider conflagration that could have profound implications for global security and energy markets, with the coming days likely to determine whether the region can step back from the brink or plunge deeper into conflict.

Houthis Launch Missile at Saudi Arabia as Regional Tensions Escalate Amid US-Iran Strikes

International

166,000 Evacuated as Unprecedented Wildfires Rage Across France, Spain

Published

6 days ago

July 25, 2026

Trends Admin

166,000 Evacuated as Unprecedented Wildfires Rage Across France, Spain

More than 166,000 people have been forced to flee their homes and holiday destinations as unprecedented wildfires, fueled by extreme heat, drought, and strong winds, continue to ravage vast areas across France and Spain. The blazes have threatened major cities, including Bordeaux and Madrid, destroyed hundreds of homes, and prompted the deployment of military personnel and European Union emergency assistance. French President Emmanuel Macron has ordered the army to mobilise in response to what officials have described as the worst wildfire France has ever seen, while Spanish authorities have declared a national emergency for only the second time in the country’s history as flames approach the capital, Madrid.

In southwestern France, more than 141,000 people have been evacuated as wildfires tear through the Gironde and Landes regions. The Gironde blaze, described by local prefect Sophie Brocas as an “XXL fire”, has burned through more than 19,000 hectares of forest and destroyed approximately 80 homes. Around 44,000 people fled the up-market Cap Ferret peninsula south of Bordeaux, where the only road was threatened by flames. Hundreds were evacuated by boat, while others drove off the peninsula, known for its millionaire residences. More than 50 houses there have been destroyed. Authorities ordered the evacuation of towns near Bordeaux “as a precaution” against the approaching inferno, while traffic information website Bison Futé urged drivers to avoid roads in the area to free up access for emergency services.

French Interior Minister Laurent Nunez said the country had never before seen such fires on this scale and pledged to “do everything” to protect Bordeaux. “We are going to reorganise our response so we can fight it from the ground and prevent it from advancing toward Bordeaux,” Nunez told French broadcaster TF1, warning that the fire was “self-sustaining” and changing direction. Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu called a crisis meeting of key ministers late Friday and said a total of 1,000 military personnel would be deployed to confront the flames. In addition, “1.5 million FFP2 masks will be delivered as of tonight to Gironde in order to protect the personnel involved and the populations exposed to smoke that is harmful to health,” he said on X. About 40 of the 1,000 firefighters battling the Cap Ferret blaze have been injured, authorities confirmed. Three firefighters have died in wildfires in France and Italy this week.

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The situation in Spain is equally dire, with at least 25,000 people evacuated in the Madrid region and another 40,000 told to lock themselves indoors. Spain’s government has declared a national emergency for only the second time in the country’s history, allowing the central government to assume overall command and coordinate national and regional emergency resources. Carlos Novillo, the Madrid regional government’s emergency management chief, said the wildfire near the capital was “at its peak and is currently beyond the capacity of firefighters to contain”. “It’s not possible to attack the fire in that area, so defensive measures are being taken,” he added.

Two of the three major wildfires west of Madrid have merged into one, threatening suburban towns. The fire is heading towards Navas del Rey, around 50 kilometres from the capital, and officials fear the blaze could combine with another wildfire in the neighbouring Castilla y Leon region, creating an even larger catastrophe. Madrid’s regional president Isabel Díaz Ayuso described it as the “worst fire in the history of the region”, with the area facing a “perfect storm” of high temperatures, relentless wind, and merging fire fronts. The Military Emergency Unit has been mobilised to try to halt the advance of the flames, with its main focus protecting areas near the town of El Escorial. “The smoke was incredibly thick,” Jose Cobos, who fled his home southwest of Madrid with his wife and three dogs, told Antena 3 television. “You couldn’t breathe.” In the village of Chapinería, 33-year-old Joaquin Espinosa told The Associated Press: “All around the town was smoke and fire, I was scared. Everything was fire and smoke, people were nervous.”

Madrid and Paris have called in EU emergency assistance as flames whipped up by strong winds and drought tore through tinder-dry forests. Following appeals for assistance, the European Commission said it was sending four water-bombing planes to Spain and three to France. Macron said France would receive reinforcements including two Croatian Canadair firefighting aircraft, two Portuguese Air Tractor aircraft, and two heavy-lift Black Hawk helicopters from the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Spanish Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska said Italy and Greece are each sending two Canadair water-dumping aeroplanes. Emergency shelters were set up in schools and gymnasiums in southwestern France for tourists and residents left wondering what they would return to. In the village of Andernos, Maria Lalanne, a 90-year-old from Lege Cap Ferret, sat on a camp bed in a gym without her glasses or hearing aid, which she had left behind. “I have heart disease, high blood pressure and problems with my eyes,” she said. “I don’t know how long all this will last. I don’t know how my house is, whether it has burnt.”

Some European regions have suffered at least two heatwaves since May. Drought blamed on human-fuelled climate change has heightened the threat from wildfires this year, the World Weather Attribution group said in a study published this week. Southern Europe has seen multiple large fires this summer, with Europe being the world’s fastest-warming continent, with temperatures increasing twice as quickly as the global average since the 1980s. Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has called for a pact between political parties to fight climate change, which he said is key to adapting to a more fire-prone climate. So far this year, 44,000 hectares have been burned in France, more than the average, Nunez said. In Spain, more than 1,140 square kilometres have already burned this year, more than five times the burned terrain through the first half of 2025. The unprecedented scale of these wildfires serves as a stark reminder of the growing impact of climate change on Europe’s fire seasons, with experts warning that such extreme events are likely to become more frequent and severe in the coming years.

166,000 Evacuated as Unprecedented Wildfires Rage Across France, Spain

International

UN calls for urgent evacuation of 6,000 sailors stranded in Strait of Hormuz

Published

6 days ago

July 25, 2026

Trends Admin

Iran declares Strait of Hormuz closed as fresh US strikes deepen Gulf conflict

UN calls for urgent evacuation of 6,000 sailors stranded in Strait of Hormuz

The United Nations has called for the urgent evacuation and repatriation of about 6,000 sailors stranded aboard commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, warning that the prolonged crisis poses serious humanitarian, human rights and maritime safety concerns as conflict in the Middle East continues to threaten one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes.

The appeal was made by UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk, who urged all parties involved in the conflict to prioritise the safety of civilian seafarers and facilitate their immediate evacuation. He stressed that thousands of crew members have remained trapped aboard vessels for weeks despite the announcement of a ceasefire, with many unable to disembark or safely return home because of persistent security threats.

Speaking in Geneva, UN human rights spokeswoman Shabia Mantoo said estimates from the International Maritime Organization (IMO) indicate that approximately 6,000 seafarers remain stranded on hundreds of ships operating in or around the Strait of Hormuz.

She said all parties to the conflict must urgently ensure safe passage for the affected crews, guarantee access to essential humanitarian supplies and respect international humanitarian law, which prohibits attacks on civilian vessels.

According to the UN, stranded sailors require immediate access to food, clean water, medical care, communication facilities, mental health support and consular assistance while arrangements are made for their evacuation and repatriation.

Türk also appealed to governments, shipping companies, flag states and international maritime organisations to work together to protect seafarers whose safety has been endangered by the escalating regional conflict.

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The humanitarian appeal comes amid renewed military tensions involving the United States, Iran and Iran-backed Houthi fighters following attacks on commercial oil tankers and other merchant vessels operating in the Red Sea and surrounding waters.

Although U.S. military officials have maintained that the Strait of Hormuz remains open to international commercial shipping, security risks have continued to disrupt maritime operations, forcing several shipping companies to suspend or reroute voyages while others delay sailings until the security situation improves.

The renewed conflict has also triggered sharp increases in global oil prices, with Brent crude climbing above $100 per barrel, raising fresh concerns about global energy supplies, inflation and the cost of international freight.

Industry analysts say the rising geopolitical tension has led to higher war-risk insurance premiums, increased shipping costs and greater uncertainty for global supply chains that depend heavily on uninterrupted maritime trade through the Gulf.

The Strait of Hormuz, located between Iran and Oman, remains one of the world’s most strategically important maritime chokepoints. Before the latest escalation, nearly 20 per cent of the world’s oil supply and significant volumes of liquefied natural gas passed through the narrow waterway each day, making any disruption a major threat to international energy markets and global commerce.

The International Maritime Organization has repeatedly warned that civilian seafarers should never become casualties of armed conflicts, stressing that shipping crews perform essential services that keep global trade moving and deserve protection regardless of geopolitical disputes.

Maritime labour organisations have also expressed concern over the welfare of stranded crews, reporting that many sailors have remained onboard far beyond the expiration of their employment contracts while facing shortages of supplies, delayed crew changes and growing psychological stress caused by prolonged uncertainty.

The International Transport Workers’ Federation (ITF) has urged governments to accelerate diplomatic efforts to secure humanitarian corridors that would allow stranded crews to leave the conflict zone safely.

Shipping experts warn that prolonged instability in the Strait of Hormuz could have far-reaching economic consequences, including higher fuel prices, increased transportation costs, supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures across many economies.

The UN has reiterated that protecting civilian shipping remains a legal obligation under international law and urged all parties to exercise maximum restraint to prevent further escalation while ensuring the safe evacuation of thousands of sailors caught in the conflict.