Nigeria May Slip Into Recession as Budget Deficit Hits N30.58trn In Seven Years - Newstrends
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Nigeria May Slip Into Recession as Budget Deficit Hits N30.58trn In Seven Years

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The budget deficit has risen to at least N30.58tn in the last seven years.
This is according to data from budget implementation reports for the third and fourth quarters of 2015; the four quarters of 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020; the first three quarters of 2021; and the first four months of 2022.
According to Investopedia, a budget deficit occurs when expenses exceed revenue.
An analysis of the reports on the Budget Office of Nigeria’s website revealed that Buhari’s administration had spent at least N54.98tn on budget implementation since its inception but has only financed this spending with N24.39tn, leaving a deficit of N30.58tn.
A breakdown of some of the expenses revealed that the present administration had spent at least N23.66tn on personnel costs, pensions, overhead costs, presidential amnesty programme, other service-wide votes, and special interventions.
A minimum of N14.13tn has been spent servicing domestic and foreign debts, and at least N10.47tn has been spent on capital expenditure.
According to the reports, this deficit financing has been largely financed by government borrowing. The budget implementation report for Q4, 2015 said, “The FGN has arranged to raise short-term credit from the CBN through the mechanism of Ways and Means subject to a ceiling of 12.5 percent of FGN’s revenue.
“This amount will be retired and therefore not considered as new borrowing outside the borrowing approved to finance the budget deficit. However, due to current fiscal challenges, the CBN had agreed to increase the Ways and Means advances threshold hence the FGN’s ability to raise N615.96bn from this source.”
Since allowance for raising the ceiling was made, total borrowing from the CBN has hit N19.01tn in April 2022 from N648.26bn as of June 2015.

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Also, the nation’s total debt profile hit N41.06tn as of March 2022 from N12.12tn, according to the Debt Management Office.
A document titled ‘Public Consultation on the Draft 2023 – 2025 MTFF/FSP’ presented by the Minister of Finance, Budget & National Planning, Mrs. Zainab Ahmed, said, “Revenue generation remains the major fiscal constraint of the federation. The systemic resource mobilization problem has been compounded by recent economic recessions.”

Recently, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria raised concerns over the nation’s debt sustainability. It said the Federal Government’s debt profile was worrying and noted that there was a need for it to urgently diversify its revenue base.
Commenting on the story, economists stated that a high deficit was not good for the economy and might cause inflation, recession, and slow down growth.
Speaking to a reporter, an economic expert, and seasoned academic at the University of Uyo, Professor Akpan Ekpo, said, “This shows that expenditure has eclipsed the revenue, because they have to borrow, which is why there is a deficit.
“They can’t raise enough domestic resources to finance spending. That gap is a deficit. Talking about GDP, by the rules, it should not be more than a certain percentage of GDP, but it has exceeded that. And when you borrow, you have expectations of borrowing because if you are not transparent, we don’t know what you are borrowing for.
“If you are borrowing to finance recurrent and overhead, it is not good for the economy. If you borrow to finance capital projects, in the long run, even if you have a deficit, it will have a positive multiplier effect. The deficit, if it is used to finance recurrent, is problematic to the economy.

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“One way of solving that is to raise more of domestic revenue or cut down on expenditure that is not needed, especially, the cost of governance. There is a need to check the expenditure profile and cut down on it. Or we could do expenditure switching, where unimportant items are switched with important items.
“We are spending more than we can raise resources and we are not spending it on hard infrastructure.”
Associate professor of Economics at the Pan-Atlantic University, Lagos, Olalekan Aworinde, added that the deficit was being financed by either government borrowing, sales of government properties, or printing money.
According to him, any of these options had implications for the economy. He stated, “Loans can be good and can be bad. A loan is good if it is used for productive expenditure, but if it is used for recurrent expenditure or consumption expenditure, this is not bringing back any returns.
“If the component of this deficit is majorly recurrent expenditures, it shows that we are unlikely to have any growth. There isn’t going to be any revenue coming out from there. The implication of this is that we are likely going to have stunted growth. Stunted growth in the sense that we are not likely going to have an increase in the total values of goods and services that are produced in the country.
“If care is not taken, we are likely going to slide into recession.”
He added that financing the deficit through sales of government properties would mean the government was reducing its asset base, which did not speak well for the economy.

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Oyetola, VP’s aide, Opeifa to drive discussions at 2026 TCAN Transport Summit 

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Oyetola, VP’s aide, Opeifa to drive discussions at 2026 TCAN Transport Summit 

LAGOS – Nigeria’s drive to build a more efficient and integrated transportation system will take centre stage on September 24 as the Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Dr Adegboyega Oyetola, the Technical Adviser to the Vice President on Transportation, Logistics and Innovation, Dr Segun Obayendo, and the Managing Director of the Nigerian Railway Corporation (NRC), Dr Kayode Opeifa, have confirmed their participation in the 2026 Transportation Summit organised by the Transportation Correspondents Association of Nigeria (TCAN).

Their participation is expected to provide a major boost to the annual summit, which has evolved into one of the country’s foremost platforms for discussions on transportation policy, infrastructure development, logistics and sustainable mobility.

The summit, themed “Unlocking Nigeria’s Economic Growth Through Transportation Logistics,” will bring together policymakers, regulators, transport operators, industry leaders, development partners, academics and other stakeholders to chart practical pathways for strengthening Nigeria’s logistics ecosystem and accelerating economic growth.

Participants will examine the current state of the nation’s transportation architecture across the road, rail, maritime and aviation sectors, while identifying solutions to the bottlenecks hindering seamless movement of passengers and cargo.

Discussions will also focus on multimodal transport integration, investment opportunities within the logistics and supply chains, digital transformation, infrastructure financing, and public-private partnership initiatives.

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TCAN Chairman, Mr Tola Adenubi, said the summit would equally review regulatory frameworks needed to improve operational efficiency and enhance Nigeria’s competitiveness in the global logistics industry.

According to him, the confirmation by Oyetola, Obayendo and Opeifa underscores the Federal Government’s commitment to engaging stakeholders in driving reforms that will reposition the nation’s transport sector.

Oyetola is expected to deliver the keynote address, outlining the Federal Government’s agenda for the marine and logistics sector, ongoing reforms, infrastructure investments and policies aimed at improving intermodal connectivity, boosting port efficiency and strengthening the country’s logistics value chain.

Obayendo will provide insights into the transportation and logistics components of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda, highlighting key reforms and their impact on national economic development.

Opeifa, on his part, will present updates on the railway modernisation programme, operational improvements, rail safety, passenger and freight services, and the expanding role of the Nigerian Railway Corporation in supporting economic growth.

Expressing optimism over the calibre of participants, Adenubi said the summit would offer stakeholders a rare opportunity to engage directly with key government officials shaping Nigeria’s transportation future.

“We are delighted that the Honourable Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Dr Adegboyega Oyetola, the Technical Adviser to the Vice President on Transportation, Logistics and Innovation, Dr Segun Obayendo, and the Managing Director of the Nigerian Railway Corporation, Dr Kayode Opeifa, have accepted our invitation to participate in the 2026 TCAN Summit.

“Their presence will provide participants with first-hand insights into the Federal Government’s vision for the transport sector while creating opportunities for meaningful engagement between policymakers, industry operators and the media,” he said.

Beyond the keynote sessions, the summit will feature presentations by government agencies and leading players across the transportation and logistics value chain, alongside networking sessions designed to strengthen collaboration across the road, rail, maritime, aviation and multimodal transport sectors.

As part of the event, TCAN will also recognise individuals and organisations that have made significant contributions to the growth of Nigeria’s transport industry through its “Champion of Transport Industry Development” compendium.

The summit is scheduled to hold on September 24, 2026, at Radisson Hotel, Ikeja, Lagos.

 

Oyetola, VP’s aide, Opeifa to drive discussions at 2026 TCAN Transport Summit

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Petrol price hits N1,400 per litre as transport fares rise across Nigeria

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Petrol price hits N1,400 per litre as transport fares rise across Nigeria

Petrol price hits N1,400 per litre as transport fares rise across Nigeria

Millions of Nigerians are facing renewed economic hardship as the petrol price has risen to as high as N1,400 per litre in several parts of the country, forcing transport operators to increase fares and adding further pressure to the rising cost of living.

The latest increase follows a sharp rise in global crude oil prices, which has driven up the cost of refined petroleum products and triggered fresh adjustments in ex-depot and retail pump prices across Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market.

Industry data obtained from petroleum marketers showed that several depots in Lagos, Warri and Calabar reviewed their ex-depot prices upward after international oil prices surged.

In Lagos, A.A. Rano increased its ex-depot price from N1,275 to N1,279 per litre, while African Terminal, Ascon, Gulf Treasure, Integrated and T.Time adjusted theirs to about N1,275 per litre. However, EMADEB marginally reduced its price from N1,278 to N1,274 per litre.

The development coincided with the resumption of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) loading by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which returned to naira transactions after temporarily suspending gantry loading. At the same time, the refinery increased its ex-depot price from N1,075 to N1,215 per litre, representing a 13.02 per cent increase.

The refinery had suspended truck and coastal loading after introducing a dollar-denominated pricing structure, citing challenges in sourcing sufficient crude oil under the Federal Government’s naira-for-crude initiative. Although naira sales have resumed, the higher ex-depot price has pushed retail prices upward across the country.

Consequently, motorists are now buying petrol at between N1,260 and N1,400 per litre, depending on location and marketer, with independent filling stations recording some of the highest pump prices.

The increase has had an immediate impact on transportation costs.

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In the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), commuters said they now spend significantly more on daily transportation, while commercial drivers explained that rising fuel costs have made fare adjustments unavoidable to remain in business.

Some commercial transport operators in Lagos have also raised fares on major routes, although competition among bus operators has limited uniform increases across the city.

In Kwara State, major marketers now sell petrol for between N1,255 and N1,305 per litre, while pump prices have climbed to around N1,350 per litre in Kaduna.

Motorists in Adamawa State are paying between N1,360 and N1,370 per litre, while independent filling stations in Maiduguri now dispense petrol for between N1,370 and N1,390 per litre.

The rising cost of fuel has also affected interstate travel. Operators on the Maiduguri–Kano route have increased transport fares from N20,000 to N25,000, citing higher fuel costs and increased vehicle operating expenses.

However, transport fares have remained relatively stable in parts of Ibadan and Kano, where operators say they are closely monitoring market developments before making further adjustments.

The Chairman of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) in Borno State, Mohammed Kuluwu, said frequent fluctuations in petrol prices have created uncertainty in the downstream sector, making many marketers reluctant to load products because of fears of sudden price changes.

Energy law expert Prof. Dayo Ayoade of the University of Lagos attributed the latest increase to the realities of Nigeria’s deregulated petroleum market.

According to him, domestic fuel prices are now largely determined by international crude oil prices, foreign exchange movements and market forces, while the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) significantly limits direct government intervention in pricing.

He added that challenges affecting the implementation of the Federal Government’s naira-for-crude policy have reduced the volume of crude supplied to local refineries, contributing to higher refining and distribution costs.

Oil and gas analyst Abdullahi Shehu called on the Federal Government to expand crude oil supply to domestic refineries under favourable terms, arguing that stronger local refining capacity could help moderate petrol prices and reduce dependence on imported refined products.

Similarly, economist and energy expert Dr. Marcel Okeke warned that sustained increases in fuel prices could further accelerate inflation, raise production and logistics costs for businesses and worsen the financial burden on households already struggling with rising food prices and other essential expenses.

Economic analysts note that because petrol remains the primary fuel powering transportation, logistics and many small businesses, continued increases in pump prices are likely to translate into higher prices for goods and services nationwide, thereby deepening inflationary pressures.

The latest fuel price adjustment comes at a time when many Nigerians are already contending with high inflation, rising electricity costs and increased household expenses, raising concerns that further increases in transportation costs could negatively affect businesses, workers and consumers if global oil prices remain elevated.

Petrol price hits N1,400 per litre as transport fares rise across Nigeria

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Nigerians May Pay More for Fuel as Global Oil Prices Surge Above $100 Per Barrel

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Nigerians May Pay More for Fuel as Global Oil Prices Surge Above $100 Per Barrel

Nigerians May Pay More for Fuel as Global Oil Prices Surge Above $100 Per Barrel

Nigerians face the prospect of higher petrol prices, increased transport fares, and renewed inflationary pressure as global crude oil prices have surged above $100 per barrel for the first time since May amid escalating conflict in the Middle East.

The surge represents about a 6.77 per cent increase on Thursday following several days of gains as the United States stepped up military strikes against Iran. Brent crude, the international benchmark against which Nigeria’s oil is priced, climbed above $100 per barrel on Thursday, July 23, 2026, reaching $100.69 after surging more than seven per cent in a single day. By 4:40 p.m. WAT, Brent crude had risen 7.43 per cent to $101.10 per barrel, while U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 6.77 per cent to trade at $92.71 per barrel.

The latest price rally has been driven by threats to two of the world’s most strategic shipping routes: the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes, and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea. The Iran-aligned Houthi militia in Yemen has opened a new front by targeting vessels carrying Saudi oil in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait after declaring a naval blockade on shipments from Saudi Arabia. The Houthi group claimed to have attacked two Saudi oil tankers, identified as ENCELIA and LAYLA, using ballistic and cruise missiles as well as drones. The attacks have lifted global benchmark prices by about 20 per cent over the past two weeks. Several oil tankers have altered their routes, with at least five changing course in the Red Sea. The disruption has been compounded by other supply constraints. Kazakhstan has reportedly begun cutting oil production after drone attacks disrupted tanker loadings at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal on the Black Sea. Indian state refiners have suspended Iraqi crude loadings because of shipping risks around Hormuz, while Russian fuel exports remain constrained following months of attacks on refinery infrastructure. Strategic petroleum reserves released by several governments since the conflict escalated have reduced emergency stockpiles, commercial inventories have continued to decline, and China has increasingly relied on previously accumulated reserves rather than fresh imports. Goldman Sachs has warned that Brent crude could climb to as high as $120 a barrel by the end of the year if exports through the strategic waterway remain disrupted.

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The surge in crude oil prices has already translated into higher costs at Nigerian pumps. The impact is already beginning to reflect in Nigeria’s downstream market, with prices at filling stations in Lagos and its environs currently ranging between N1,300 and N1,400 per litre, depending on location. In Abuja, pump prices have increased from about N1,155 per litre to approximately N1,350 per litre, adding further pressure on households and businesses already grappling with elevated living costs. Dangote Petroleum Refinery resumed gantry loading of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) in naira on Thursday after a week-long suspension, while raising its ex-depot petrol price to N1,215 per litre, up from the previous N1,075 per litre, representing a 13.02 per cent increase. The refinery had suspended gantry and coastal loading on July 15 after introducing a dollar-denominated pricing template for refined petroleum products, a move that disrupted fuel supply and forced marketers to source products from private depots. Fresh loading data obtained from petroleum marketers showed an upward movement in ex-depot prices across Lagos, Warri and Calabar. In Lagos, A.A. Rano increased its ex-depot price from N1,275 to N1,279 per litre, while African Terminal, Ascon, Gulf Treasure, Integrated and T.Time hiked their rates to N1,275. The spokesperson of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), Chinedu Ukadike, confirmed that loading had resumed across depots, although it remains unclear whether purchases directly from the Dangote Refinery are now being settled in dollars.

The rise in crude oil prices presents a mixed picture for Nigeria. The 2026 Federal Government budget was benchmarked at a crude oil price of $64.85 per barrel**, daily production of 1.84 million barrels, and an exchange rate of N1,400 to the US dollar. At current prices, Nigeria is earning about **$35 more per barrel than projected, potentially generating billions of naira in additional revenue if production and exports remain stable. However, revenue gains may be moderated by lower-than-budgeted output. According to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), current oil production stands at about 1.7 million barrels per day, including condensate. More importantly, economists caution that the fiscal windfall may be outweighed by the rising cost of living, as Nigerians bear the burden of higher fuel prices under the deregulated downstream petroleum market. The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has warned that domestic refining alone may not significantly reduce petrol prices, as crude oil feedstock is priced using international benchmarks and denominated in US dollars.

Transport fares have already begun to rise across the country as a result of the fuel price increases. In Abuja, residents have expressed frustration over the latest increase, saying transportation costs now consume a significant portion of their earnings. A civil servant told Daily Trust: “My salary has not changed, but I now spend much more just getting to work and back. It is becoming impossible to survive in Abuja.” Any increase in petrol prices is expected to trigger fresh hikes in transport fares, with knock-on effects on the prices of food, manufactured goods, and other essential commodities across the country. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that refined fuel markets remain tighter than crude supplies, meaning that markets for refined oil products, including diesel and gasoline, are considerably tighter than those for crude. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol warned that a “full and unconditional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz” would be essential to prevent a further deterioration in global energy security.

Commenting on the development, Managing Director of Petroleumprice.ng, Jeremiah Olatide, said the downstream sector has become increasingly volatile. “With the resumption of loading by Dangote Petroleum Refinery in naira at N1,215 per litre on Wednesday, we expected fuel importers to reduce prices, and some actually did. However, the sudden spike in crude oil prices due to the Middle East crisis has disrupted that trend. We should expect more price instability in the coming weeks,” he told Vanguard. National President of the Oil and Gas Services Providers Association of Nigeria (OGSPAN), Mazi Colman Obasi, noted that while depots and filling stations had yet to implement widespread price increases, the impact could soon be felt across the economy. “The implications will be far-reaching for households, businesses and the wider economy once operators across the value chain adjust their prices,” he warned. Energy experts say the current situation reflects the realities of Nigeria’s deregulated petroleum market under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA). Professor Dayo Ayoade, an energy law expert at the University of Lagos, explained that local petrol prices are now tied directly to international crude oil prices and exchange rate movements. The exposure of Nigeria’s local PMS markets to the vulnerabilities of an oil shock and increasing prices due to the US-Iran war will be ongoing. So long as the conflict continues, the price will go up, and Nigeria will be unable to protect itself against that higher cost.

Nigerians May Pay More for Fuel as Global Oil Prices Surge Above $100 Per Barrel

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