OPINION: Refining Without Relief: Nigeria In The Midst Of Global Oil Wars! - Newstrends
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OPINION: Refining Without Relief: Nigeria In The Midst Of Global Oil Wars!

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Port Harcourt refinery

OPINION: Refining Without Relief: Nigeria In The Midst Of Global Oil Wars!

The vision was bold. The expectation was clear. And the promise was powerful. When the Dangote Refinery began operations, it was hailed as Nigeria’s long-awaited escape from decades of energy contradiction, which involves exporting crude oil while importing refined fuel at high costs. It was meant to guarantee supply, stabilise prices, conserve foreign exchange, and most importantly, deliver relief to ordinary Nigerians.

What appears to be a distinct contradiction is that, despite months into its operation, a different reality is emerging, with fuel prices rising sharply. Inflationary pressures are intensifying. This occurrence has forced Nigerians to ask a difficult question once again, one that calls for an urgent answer.: Why does a country that produces and refines crude oil still suffer the consequences of global oil shocks?

Looking at the trend, it is clear that the answer lies not just in geopolitics, but in the deeper structure of Nigeria’s oil economy, where global pricing, policy gaps, and now the looming risk of monopoly intersect.

With the recent development, the latest alarming surge in petrol prices has been driven largely by escalating tensions in the Middle East. This is particularly the U.S-Israel strikes on Iran and retaliatory measures from Tehran. A well-known fact is that at the centre of the crisis is the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil transit route through which a significant portion of global supply flows. Any disruption, even a speculative one, triggers immediate spikes in crude prices.

Within a week, oil prices jumped from the mid-$60 range to nearly $120 per barrel. For global markets, this is expected. For Nigeria, it is devastatingly ironic. This is because, despite having crude oil in abundance and despite refining it locally, Nigeria remains fully exposed and this has continued to re-echo the same ironic question.

In a rare moment of corporate candor, the refinery’s leadership acknowledged this reality. The plant is deeply affected by global shocks. Crude oil, even when sourced locally, is priced at international benchmarks. Shipping costs have surged dramatically, from about $800,000 per tanker to as high as $3.5m. Insurance premiums have climbed, and logistics have become significantly more expensive, with total costs further driving higher.

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Even more revealing is the refinery’s sourcing structure. Only about 30 per cent – 35 per cent of crude comes from the Nigerian government supply under the crude-for-naira framework. A significant portion is still purchased in U.S. dollars on the open market, while another 30 per cent – 40 per cent is sourced internationally, including from the United States and other regions. This means the refinery is not insulated; it is integrated into the global oil system. The implication is unavoidable as local refining has not translated into local pricing control.

The impact on Nigerians has been immediate and severe as petrol prices have surged from under N800 earlier in the year to over N1,200, and in some regions, it is even more alarming when the prices skyrocketed close to N1,400 per litre. Within weeks, multiple price increases have been recorded, driven largely by global crude price spikes and rising logistics costs. Doubtless, the country has witnessed the consequences ripple across the economy as transport fares rise, food prices increase, businesses struggle with higher operating costs, and inflation accelerates.

The development has attracted the attention of the labour unions and the organised private sector, prompting them to raise concerns and alarm about the consequences of job losses, business closures, and worsening hardship if the trend continues with each passing day, witnessing a daily increase and causing possible artificial scarcity.

Nigeria remains trapped in a painful contradiction. It produces crude oil. It refines crude oil. Yet it cannot protect its citizens from global oil volatility. As Aliko Dangote himself acknowledged, Nigeria has no direct role in the conflict driving these price increases, yet it bears the consequences due to global economic interdependence.

In a real sense, this is the deeper tragedy, as Nigeria has achieved capacity without control.

At the heart of the issue is a structural reality, crude oil is priced globally, not locally. Even under the crude-for-naira arrangement, pricing is benchmarked against international rates. This means refineries pay global crude prices, fuel prices reflect global market conditions, and domestic consumers absorb international shocks. In essence, Nigeria has moved refining home without bringing pricing sovereignty with it.

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To be fair, the Dangote Refinery has played a stabilising role. Nigeria still enjoys relatively lower petrol prices compared to many global markets. In several countries, supply disruptions have led to panic buying and rationing, while Nigeria has maintained a consistent supply. As the refinery’s CEO aptly noted, what is worse than $120 oil is no oil. The refinery has prevented scarcity, but it has not prevented high prices. Availability, in this case, has not equated to affordability, which is the painful part for the citizens.

While much of the current debate focuses on pricing, another critical issue is quietly taking shape, which is the risk of market concentration. Dangote Refinery deserves credit for its scale and ambition, but scale brings power, and power demands oversight. If fuel importers are gradually pushed out and no competing refineries emerge at scale, Nigeria could find itself transitioning from a public sector monopoly to a private sector dominance led by a single player.

Nigeria has seen this pattern before. In the cement industry, increased domestic production did not necessarily translate into lower prices. Limited competition allowed prices to remain elevated despite local capacity. The same risk now looms in the downstream oil sector. Without competition, price-setting power becomes concentrated, supply risks increase, and consumer protection weakens. In a country with fragile regulatory institutions, this is not a theoretical concern; it is a real and present danger.

No one should perceive this wrongly, because it is important, however, not to misplace blame. It should be made known that the Dangote Refinery is not a charity; it is a private enterprise operating within market realities. It must recover its investment, manage costs, and deliver returns. Its exposure to global pricing is not a failure of intent but a function of the system within which it operates.

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The real issue lies in the structure of the market and the absence of sufficient competition.

It is no longer news that Nigeria’s downstream sector is now largely deregulated following the removal of fuel subsidies. While deregulation has reduced government fiscal burden and encouraged private investment, it has also exposed consumers to price volatility and limited the scope for intervention, as this has continued to cause pain. Markets, in theory, deliver efficiency, but in practice, they require competition and effective regulation to function properly. Without these, deregulation can simply replace one form of inefficiency with another.

Nigeria does not need to weaken Dangote Refinery; it needs to multiply it. The goal should be to build a competitive refining ecosystem to replace one dominant structure with another. The truth is not far from this, as part of a lasting solution, it requires encouraging new refinery investments, removing bottlenecks for players such as BUA and modular refineries, ensuring transparent crude allocation, providing open access to pipelines and storage infrastructure, and enforcing strong antitrust regulations.

Competition remains the most effective regulator of price, which is sacrosanct and it protects consumers, strengthens supply security, and reduces systemic risk.

This must also be perceived beyond competition, which calls for the government to act strategically. The fact is that when supplying crude to local refineries at discounted or stabilised rates, expanding naira-based transactions, and introducing temporary relief measures during global crises are all viable options that must be put into consideration. Energy is too critical to be left entirely to market forces, especially in a developing economy where millions are highly vulnerable to economic shocks.

It is time that Nigerians understood that the nation’s refining crisis has been decades in the making, and it cannot be solved by a single refinery, no matter how large. If asked, it will be said that this is a fact that can’t be argued. The Dangote Refinery is undoubtedly a turning point, but it will only remain so if it is embedded within broader systemic reform. Otherwise, Nigeria risks replacing one form of dependency with another, from import dependence to domestic concentration.

The question is no longer whether Nigeria can refine crude oil. It can. The real question is whether Nigeria can build a system that ensures fair pricing, competitive markets, consumer protection, and economic resilience, as these are exactly the core answers.

If global conflicts continue to dictate local fuel prices, if monopoly risks go unchecked, and if citizens remain vulnerable despite abundant resources, then the promise of local refining will remain unfulfilled, as it will bring no expected relief.

What is playing out is the well-known fact that in refining, as in democracy, concentration of power is dangerous. And in both, the strongest safeguard remains the same, competition, transparency, and institutions that serve the public interest.

OPINION: Refining Without Relief: Nigeria In The Midst Of Global Oil Wars!

—Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos and can be reached via: blaise.udunze@gmail.com

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Opinion

Saudi Executions: Truth Behind Viral Kissing Claim

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Saudi Executions: Truth Behind Viral Kissing Claim

A Muslim scholar, Mallam Ibrahim Agunbiade, has urged the public to exercise caution over viral claims that two Bangladeshi nationals executed in Saudi Arabia were a married couple killed for kissing inside the Grand Mosque in Makkah, saying available official information does not establish the allegation.

In an article dated October 22, 2026, Agunbiade, a member of Al-Rabwa Islamic Propagation in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, said the execution of the two Bangladeshis on October 14 had generated widespread controversy, particularly on social media, where claims about the circumstances of their deaths circulated without sufficient verification.

He said the Saudi Ministry of Interior announced that the individuals, identified as Nazrul Islam Abdul Basir and Siti Akhtar, also known as Sweety Akhtar, had been convicted of committing an indecent act inside a mosque in Makkah and sentenced to death under ta’zir, a category of punishment determined under the applicable Islamic legal framework.

According to Agunbiade, the Saudi authorities stated that the judgments had received the necessary judicial approval and that a royal order had authorised the executions.

However, he noted that the ministry’s announcement did not specify the precise act for which the two were convicted or state that they were executed for kissing on the forehead, as alleged in viral social media posts.

The scholar said the distinction was important because claims that the deceased were a married couple who had been punished for kissing inside the Grand Mosque had not been substantiated by the publicly available official statement.

Citing a report published by Bangladesh’s The Daily Star on October 20, Agunbiade said a confidential consular memorandum reportedly indicated that the two were not married but had worked as cleaners for the same company in Saudi Arabia.

He added that the memorandum reportedly stated that Nazrul was detained in August 2023 under Saudi Arabia’s cybercrime law, while Sweety was detained the following day over an allegation of adultery.

Agunbiade said the available information did not explain how the earlier allegations related to the offence subsequently cited in the Saudi government’s execution announcement.

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He further disclosed that Nazrul’s parents had told Bangladeshi media that their son was unmarried and that the family did not know the woman involved.

The Bangladeshi government has reportedly requested copies of the court judgments and further clarification from Saudi authorities, according to the account presented by the scholar.

He said the documents would be important in establishing the precise offences, the evidence considered by the courts and the circumstances surrounding the convictions.

Until the judgments and additional official explanations become available, Agunbiade advised the public against presenting the claims that the pair were newlyweds or were executed specifically for kissing inside the mosque as established facts.

Islamic teachings on the sanctity of mosques

Beyond the controversy surrounding the executions, Agunbiade emphasised that Islam attaches great importance to the sanctity of mosques and appropriate conduct in places of worship.

He cited Qur’an 72:18, which states: “And the mosques are for Allah, so do not invoke anyone along with Allah.”

According to him, the verse underscores the sacred purpose of mosques as places devoted to the worship of Allah.

He also referred to a narration in Sahih Muslim concerning the purposes of mosques, including the remembrance of Allah, prayer and the recitation of the Qur’an.

Agunbiade said Muslims should respect these sacred spaces and avoid behaviour that distracts worshippers or undermines their religious purpose.

However, he cautioned against using religious teachings to justify the circulation of unverified allegations or drawing conclusions about a criminal case without sufficient evidence.

Qur’an warns against spreading unverified information

The scholar said the controversy also highlighted the importance of verifying information before sharing it, particularly when reports involve criminal allegations, religious sensitivities and the lives of individuals who can no longer respond to claims made about them.

He cited Qur’an 49:6, which instructs believers to investigate information brought by an unreliable source before acting upon it.

The verse states: “O you who believe, if a rebellious person comes to you with information, investigate it.”

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Agunbiade also cited a narration in the introduction to Sahih Muslim, commonly numbered Hadith 5, which warns that a person may be considered a liar if they narrate everything they hear.

He said the teachings were particularly relevant in an era when sensational claims could spread rapidly across social media platforms, often reaching large audiences before journalists or other responsible parties had established their authenticity.

According to him, journalists, religious commentators and members of the public have a duty to distinguish verified facts from allegations, speculation and unconfirmed accounts.

He warned that repeating a claim without checking its authenticity could mislead the public, damage reputations and inflame religious or social tensions.

Calls for clarification should not be confused with rejection of justice

Agunbiade also addressed questions surrounding the judicial proceedings that resulted in the executions, saying the reported request by the Bangladeshi government for copies of the judgments and further clarification deserved attention.

He cited Qur’an 16:90, which states that Allah commands justice and excellence, to underline the importance of fairness and accountability.

The scholar argued that seeking clarification about a criminal case should not automatically be interpreted as rejecting a court’s judgment.

Rather, he said, understanding the precise offence, the evidence presented and the circumstances of the proceedings was essential to an informed assessment of the case.

He also cautioned against drawing conclusions from the timing of the executions alongside international political developments, saying that the coincidence of events did not, by itself, establish a connection.

Any such suggestion, he maintained, would require credible supporting evidence.

Facts must be separated from speculation

Agunbiade concluded that the information presented in the Saudi Ministry of Interior’s announcement established that two Bangladeshi nationals had been executed after being convicted of an indecent act inside a mosque in Makkah.

However, he stressed that the announcement, as described in his article, did not substantiate the viral claim that the two were a married couple executed specifically for kissing on the forehead inside the Grand Mosque.

He called for responsible reporting and urged the public to avoid treating unverified social media narratives as confirmed accounts of the case.

The scholar said respect for the sanctity of mosques should go hand in hand with respect for truth, justice and responsible journalism.

As questions remain about the precise offence and the circumstances of the proceedings, the full court judgments and further official clarification from the relevant authorities would be necessary to establish a more complete account of the case.

The allegations circulating online should therefore be distinguished from the information confirmed in the publicly described official announcement, pending the release of further details.

Saudi Executions: Truth Behind Viral Kissing Claim

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OPINION: Who Still Needs the NYSC? — By Bola Bolawole

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Bola Bolawole

OPINION: Who Still Needs the NYSC? — By Bola Bolawole

The recent abduction of National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) members travelling from Ibadan, Oyo State, to orientation camps in the South-East and South-South has once again raised a difficult question: does Nigeria still need the NYSC in its present form?

The question is not new, but the latest incident has made it more urgent.

On October 1, two buses conveying NYSC members and other passengers from Ibadan to Uyo, Akwa Ibom State, and Bende, Abia State, were attacked by suspected armed men in Imo State. The police subsequently reported that 10 victims had been rescued, while efforts continued to establish the exact number of people still in captivity.

If the abducted young Nigerians travelled from Ibadan, some of them could be from Oyo and neighbouring South-West states, although victims may also have come from other parts of the country. The incident should therefore concern Nigerians collectively.

Governors whose citizens are affected should not leave the matter entirely to the Federal Government. Even where they do not directly control the police or military operations, they can support affected families, communicate with them and provide whatever assistance falls within their powers.

Questions over police handling

There are also serious questions about how information concerning the operation was handled.

The Imo State Commissioner of Police, CP Audu Bosso, disclosed that security operatives had located the kidnappers’ camp but were unable to immediately advance because intelligence indicated that the area had been mined with explosives. He also spoke about the use of drones and preparations for further operations.

That raises an important question about the disclosure of sensitive operational information while a rescue operation is still ongoing.

Security agencies must communicate with the public, but such communication should not inadvertently expose operational strategies, locations or vulnerabilities that could assist criminals.

The media, too, must exercise responsibility. The desire to break news or attract traffic should never override the safety of victims or security personnel.

Why was NYSC established?

The National Youth Service Corps was established by Decree No. 24 of May 22, 1973, following the Nigerian Civil War.

According to the NYSC, the scheme was created to promote national unity and develop common ties among Nigerian youths. Its broader purpose was to encourage young Nigerians to serve communities outside their immediate cultural and geographical environments.

The idea was understandable.

Nigeria had just emerged from a devastating civil war. The wounds were still fresh, distrust among different sections of the country was considerable, and there was an urgent need to rebuild bridges.

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The NYSC was therefore conceived as an instrument of reconciliation, integration and national development.

But more than five decades later, we must ask whether the circumstances that gave birth to the scheme still exist in the same form — and whether the scheme is achieving its original objectives.

Fifty-three years later, what has changed?

The NYSC has undoubtedly produced benefits.

Millions of young Nigerians have lived and worked outside their home states, interacted with people from different ethnic and religious backgrounds and contributed to communities through their primary assignments and community development projects.

For many Nigerians, NYSC remains one of the few institutions where young people from different parts of the country experience Nigeria beyond their immediate environments.

But the challenges have also become enormous.

Over the years, corps members have died in road accidents while travelling to their places of primary assignment or during their service year. More recently, insecurity, terrorism, banditry and kidnapping have introduced an additional and frightening dimension to the risks confronting young Nigerians serving their country.

The latest abduction therefore forces us to ask:

For how long should young graduates be compelled to travel long distances and serve in places where their safety cannot be guaranteed?

And more importantly:

Is the present structure of the NYSC still the best way to promote national unity?

Has the NYSC achieved its central objective?

After more than five decades of the NYSC, Nigeria continues to struggle with ethnic suspicion, regional grievances and demands for greater autonomy or restructuring.

The emergence of groups such as MASSOB and IPOB in the South-East, alongside various self-determination and restructuring movements in other parts of the country, suggests that the challenge of national cohesion has not disappeared.

The South-West, too, has witnessed the emergence of different groups advocating varying forms of restructuring and self-determination.

These developments do not necessarily mean that the NYSC has failed. National integration is far more complicated than a single government programme.

But they should compel policymakers to examine whether the original model remains adequate for today’s Nigeria.

Reform rather than sentiment

The answer may not necessarily be to abolish the NYSC overnight.

There may be a strong case for fundamentally reforming it.

A modern national service programme could place greater emphasis on skills acquisition, technology, entrepreneurship, healthcare, education, disaster response and community development.

The compulsory nationwide posting system could also be reviewed, particularly where security conditions make deployment dangerous.

Nigeria should not continue doing something simply because it has been done for 53 years.

At the same time, we should not discard an institution simply because it has weaknesses. The real question should be: what works, what no longer works, and what should replace it?

Time to rethink government agencies

The NYSC debate should also be part of a broader conversation about the cost and effectiveness of government institutions.

Nigeria has numerous Ministries, Departments and Agencies whose functions sometimes overlap, while some institutions have become largely ineffective.

The Federal Government should therefore revisit recommendations on restructuring and rationalising government agencies, including the Oronsaye reforms.

The objective should not merely be cutting institutions for the sake of cutting them. It should be about creating a leaner, more efficient government that delivers better services to Nigerians.

Who still needs the NYSC?

That is ultimately the question.

The NYSC was born out of the circumstances of post-Civil War Nigeria. Its founders wanted young Nigerians to develop common bonds and a stronger sense of national identity. Those objectives remain desirable.

But the Nigeria of 2026 is not the Nigeria of 1973.

Our security challenges are different. Our population is different. Our economy is different. Our young people face different challenges. Technology has transformed communication and interaction.

The government must therefore have the courage to ask whether the NYSC should continue unchanged, be radically reformed, or eventually replaced with a more effective national service framework.

What we cannot continue to do is expose young Nigerians to avoidable danger simply because a policy was created more than half a century ago.

National unity is important. But so is the safety and dignity of the young Nigerians who are expected to serve the nation.

Bola Bolawole, a former Editor of PUNCH Newspapers, Chairman of its Editorial Board and Deputy Editor-in-Chief, writes columns for Nigerian newspapers.

Source note: The opinion is adapted for Newstrends.ng from Bola Bolawole’s October 7, 2026 article. The NYSC’s official account confirms that the scheme was established by Decree No. 24 of May 22, 1973, principally to promote national unity and common ties among Nigerian youths.

OPINION: Who Still Needs the NYSC? — By Bola Bolawole

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Nigeria — My Country of Destiny

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Nigeria — My Country of Destiny
Mrs Bolatito Ajibode

Nigeria — My Country of Destiny

A speech delivered by Mrs Bolatito Ajibode, Convener, Independence Day Fiesta, at Landmark Events Centre, to mark Nigeria’s 66th Independence Anniversary

Nigeria is my country of destiny.

It is not a coincidence that I was born here. God had me in mind when He blessed this land.

It is not a coincidence that this prosperous land is populated by people of different cultures; hence, our tongues and tribes differ. We call it PRODIVA — Prosperity in Our Diversity.

The Lord finished the work of creation and should be praised for loading us with the benefits of arable soil, mineral-rich land, solid minerals, oil and gas, and a market of over 200 million people. Many are yearning for these endowments and have come to our land to explore and exploit them.

Our endowments are beckoning on us for exploration. The few who have taken up the challenge, like Dangote, are smiling to the bank by converting our huge deposits of limestone into cement and refining our crude oil into petroleum products. He has taken Nigeria to the global stage, and we are all proud of him as our brother.

We, however, need more Dangotes.

Last year, we had our maiden edition at Muri Okunola Park, where we challenged ourselves to do more by building a side hustle in addition to our 9-to-5 jobs.

We urged ourselves to:

  1. Start small from where we are and grow.
  2. Explore the vast resources of this country to create wealth.

I am happy to say that we have positive testimonies from those who have started their side hustles, making extra income and contributing to the total income of Nigeria.

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Having laid a solid foundation last year, our goal this year is to cement it and contribute, individually and collectively, to the per capita income of Nigeria.

The desired growth of Nigeria can only come as we add value to the wealth of the nation in our own little corners.

That is the only variable we can control because the other variable — population — is outside our control.

We are typically excited about our young population and proudly rejoice that Nigeria is projected to become one of the five most populous countries in the world by 2050.

The question we need to ask is: How do we house, feed and clothe this growing population?

Certainly, having a young population is good, but it can also become an easy path to poverty and insecurity if we are not deliberate about growing national wealth and baking a bigger national cake.

Yes, our business environment is tough and unstructured. It raises the entry barrier because many are not ready to weather the storm. Those who are able to stay and thrive in this tough business environment have overcome the challenges, and some of them are here with us today.

A deep appreciation to our keynote speaker, Mrs Chinwe Ezenwa, the Managing Director of Lee Look Bags, who has been in the business of Ankara and Aso-Oke fabric bags for four decades. We look forward to drinking from her fountain of knowledge this morning.

Also in our midst is our brother, Mr Ola Awakan, the Director-General of the Nigerian Tourism Development Authority, who has used literature and poetry to deliver compelling indigenous stories from the heart. He has come with his team all the way from Abuja to honour us.

During the panel session today, we will hear the success stories of our panelists and also interact with them during the networking session.

In line with the theme of the year, we would like us to consider:

  • Low-hanging fruits in our business environment;
  • Low-technology business ideas;
  • Businesses that are authentic and unique to us;
  • Commercialising our indigenous values and ideas in food, clothing, arts and drama.

We need to own and dominate this space!

Today, we have in this room great men and women who have taken these indigenous values and ideas to the global stage.

They will share their PRODIVA stories and inspire us.

I believe their insightful stories will also challenge the invited students from Yaba College of Technology, the University of Lagos and Lagos State University.

The idea is to catch them young. 😍

Please note: the Independence Day Fiesta is not about storytelling alone. We are also going to have fun.

We have about four performances, including spoken-word poetry, drama, drumming, music performances and Naija music with good lyrics.

We will also break out for lunch to enjoy various Naija cuisines.

It is my prayer that, at the end of the session, we will all have our takeaways and begin to water the seed of prosperity in our diversity.

Once again, thank you for coming. Please relax and have fun.

Nigeria — My Country of Destiny

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