Business
Tight monetary policy threatens FG’s N720bn borrowing plan
The Federal Government’s plan to borrow about N720 billion through FGN bond auctions in the third quarter, Q3’22, has come under fresh threat following increasing investors’ appetite for higher yields triggered by the adoption of tight monetary policy of the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN.
Recall that the CBN, in response to the five consecutive months rise in inflation rate to 18.6 per cent in June, launched a tight monetary policy regime May, 2022, raising the Monetary Policy Rate, MPR, first by 150 basis points to 13 per cent in May and again by 100 basis points to 14 per cent in July.
This development effectively spurred increases in money market yields while intensifying investors’ appetite for higher returns across all instruments in all segments of the market.
Consequently, the first under-subscription was recorded in FGN bond auction this year, as the auction held in July recorded 37 per cent under subscription and as a result, Debt Management Office, DMO could not achieve its sales target.
According to the FGN bond auction calendar for Q3’22 released by the Debt Management Office, DMO, the FG plans to raise between N630 billion and N720 billion during the quarter.
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The calendar shows that the FG, through the DMO, seeks to raise between N210 billion and N240 billion in each of the three months in the quarter, through subscription in three tranches of 10-year, 10-year, and 20-year original tenor respectively.
But the N225 billion FGN bond offered by the DMO at the July auction recorded 37 per cent under subscription as total subscription stood at N142 billion.
Though the 20-year bond, 13.00% FGN JAN 2042, recorded 40 over subscription, as subscription stood at for N104.92 as against N75 billion offered by the DMO, the 3-years 13.53% FGN MAR 2025 and 10-years 12.50% FGN APR 2032, recorded 84 per cent and 66 per cent under subscription respectively, as subscriptions stood at N11.75 billion and N25.62 billion respectively as against N75 billion offered for each bon tenor.
Consequently, the DMO could only achieve total sales of N123.9 billion, representing 45 per cent of its target for the month.
This was in spite of slight increases in the interest rates on the bonds offered by the DMO.
The auction results showed that the DMO raised the marginal rates for the 3-year, 10-year and 20-year bonds to 11.0 per cent from 10 per cent, 13.0 per cent from 12.5 per cent and 13.7 per cent from 13.2 per cent respectively in the June auction.
Analysts’ insight
Investment analysts however noted that for the DMO to attract investors to future auctions it would have to offer higher rates given the inflation rate of 18.6 per cent and MPR at 14 per cent.
While noting that in spite of the impact of scarcity of funds and increasing appetite triggered by the CBN’s tight monetary policy, on future bond auctions, they expect the DMO to meet its funding target of N3.53 trillion to finance the projected deficit of N7.35 trillion in the FGN’s 2022 budget.
Speaking in this regard, analysts at FBNQuest Securities, associated company in the First Bank Group, said: “The total amount raised by the DMO this year amounts to N1.7 trillion. If we include sales based on non-competitive allotment, the gross amount rises to N1.96 trillion. This excludes smaller sums raised via other instruments including Sukuk and the FGN savings bond.
“Despite the DMO’s disappointing outing, the sum raised so far by the agency suggests that it is broadly on track to raise its total domestic funding target of N3.5 trillion (including the additional borrowings of N965 billion following revisions to the budget).
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“However, the tight liquidity conditions in the market may continue to negatively affect demand at auctions in the near term.
“There are tougher credit conditions on the international market following monetary policy tightening by most central banks globally. This may force the FGN to turn to the domestic market to source some of the N2.6 trillion in external borrowing highlighted in the 2022 budget.
“The last resort would be for the fiscal deficit to become unfunded, or in other words, funded by ways and means advances from the CBN.
“Given the tight liquidity conditions in the market, we see yields inching up by around 25-50bps across the curve over the coming weeks.”
Similarly, analysts at United Capital Plc, associated company in the First Bank Group, said: “In line with our expectations of an uptick in the yield environment in the sovereign bonds market, marginal rates across all the tenors climbed 90bps, 50bps, and 60bps to print at 11.00%, 13.00% and 13.75%, respectively. Investors opted toward a more relaxed approach in the auction, demanding higher yields, as the expectation of inflation, interest rates, and political risks all begin to crystalise. These follow persistent inflation, monetary policy normalisation globally and the increased perception of political risk as we approach the electioneering season.
“We expect a continued uptick in marginal rates at subsequent bond auctions, as we believe investors will remain standoffish. The DMO will need to reel in higher rates to attract fund managers’ interests.
“Also, the recent hawkish stance adopted by the CBN, hiking rates by 250bps in total (100bps at July’s MPC meeting), will drive investor’s appetite for increased rates.
“Notwithstanding, we maintain the FG’s apparent need to rely on the domestic debt market to fund its fiscal imbalance, as external debt market conditions remain unfavourable. These factors will further impetus for shifting pricing power away from the FGN/DMO and into the hands of private sector asset managers.”
Business
Finally, NERC unbundles TCN, creates new system operator
Finally, NERC unbundles TCN, creates new system operator
The Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) has set up the Nigerian Independent System Operator of Nigeria Limited (NISO) as it unbundles the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN).
The transmission leg of the power sector has over the years been seen as weakest link with obsolete equipment.
The unbundling announcement is contained in an Order dated April 30, 2023 and jointly signed by NERC chairman, Sanusi Garba, and vice chairman, Musiliu Oseni.
By this order, the TCN is expected to transfer all market and system operation functions to the new company.
The commission had previously issued transmission service provider (TSP) and system operations (SO) licences to the TCN, in accordance with the Electric Power Sector Reform Act.
The Electricity Act 2023, which came into effect on June 9, provided clearer guidelines for the incorporation and licensing of the independent system operator (ISO), as well as the transfer of assets and liabilities of TCN’s portion of the ISO.
In the circular, the commission ordered the Bureau of Public Enterprises (BPE) to incorporate, unfailingly on May 31, a private company limited by shares under the Companies and Allied Matters Act (CAMA), 2020.
NERC said the company is expected “to carry out the market and system operation functions stipulated in the Electricity Act and the terms and conditions of the system operation licence issued to the TCN.
“The name of the company shall, subject to availability at Corporate Affairs Commission, be the Nigerian Independent System Operator of Nigeria Limited (“NISO”),” NERC said.
Citing the object clause of the NISO’s memorandum of association (MOU) as provided in the Electricity Act, NERC said the company would “hold and manage all assets and liabilities pertaining to market and system operation on behalf of market participants and consumer groups or such stakeholders as the Commission may specify.”
Business
Naira depreciates again, trades at N1,402/$
Naira depreciates again, trades at N1,402/$
The Nigerian currency, naira, on Thursday slightly depreciated at the official market, trading at N1,402.67 to the dollar.
Data from the official trading platform of the FMDQ Exchange, a platform that oversees the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM), showed that the naira lost N11.71
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This represents a 0.84 per cent loss when compared to the previous trading date on Tuesday April 30, when it exchanged at 1,390.96 to a dollar.
However, the total daily turnover increased to 232.84 million dollars on Thursday, up from 225.36 million dollars recorded on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, at the Investor’s and Exporter’s (I&E) window, the naira traded between 1,445.00 and N1,299.42 against the dollar.
Naira depreciates again, trades at N1,402/$
Auto
Appeal court takes over NURTW case as NIC withdraws
Appeal court takes over NURTW case as NIC withdraws
The National Industrial Court has withdrawn from a case involving Alhaji Najeem Usman Yasin, Board of Trustees chairman of the National Union of Road Transport Workers (NURTW), and Alhaji Tajudeen Ibikunle Baruwa’s ambition to return as president of the union over lack of jurisdiction.
The industrial court’s decision was made to avoid conflict with the Court of Appeal, where the matter is already being heard.
Before the NIC announced its decision to hands-off the case, the defendants’ counsel, Mr. O.I. Olorundare SAN, had informed the court that the matter is currently before the Court of Appeal, Abuja division, and that the industrial court could not continue to adjudicate on the same matter.
The counsel cited authorities to support his claim, adding that the National Industrial Court does not have concurrent jurisdiction with the Court of Appeal.
The presiding judge, O.O. Oyewunmi, struck out the case, stating that the Appeal Court had taken over the matter and that the Industrial Court must respect the hierarchy of courts.
Alhaji Yasin and six others took the case to the Appeal Court, challenging the decision of the industrial court recognising a delegates’ conference held on May 24, 2023, where Baruwa was proclaimed as President of the union for a second term in office.
With the latest NIC judgement, both parties will now proceed to defend their positions at the Court of Appeal and await the final judgement.
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