Business

Tight monetary policy threatens FG’s N720bn borrowing plan

Published

4 years ago

August 8, 2022

Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Godwin Emefiele

The Federal Government’s plan to borrow about N720 billion through FGN bond auctions in the third quarter, Q3’22, has come under fresh threat following increasing investors’ appetite for higher yields triggered by the adoption of tight monetary policy of the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN.

Recall that the CBN, in response to the five consecutive months rise in inflation rate to 18.6 per cent in June, launched a tight monetary policy regime May, 2022, raising the Monetary Policy Rate, MPR, first by 150 basis points to 13 per cent in May and again by 100 basis points to 14 per cent in July.

This development effectively spurred increases in money market yields while intensifying investors’ appetite for higher returns across all instruments in all segments of the market.

Consequently, the first under-subscription was recorded in FGN bond auction this year, as the auction held in July recorded 37 per cent under subscription and as a result, Debt Management Office, DMO could not achieve its sales target.

According to the FGN bond auction calendar for Q3’22 released by the Debt Management Office, DMO, the FG plans to raise between N630 billion and N720 billion during the quarter.

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The calendar shows that the FG, through the DMO, seeks to raise between N210 billion and N240 billion in each of the three months in the quarter, through subscription in three tranches of 10-year, 10-year, and 20-year original tenor respectively.

But the N225 billion FGN bond offered by the DMO at the July auction recorded 37 per cent under subscription as total subscription stood at N142 billion.

Though the 20-year bond, 13.00% FGN JAN 2042, recorded 40 over subscription, as subscription stood at for N104.92 as against N75 billion offered by the DMO, the 3-years 13.53% FGN MAR 2025 and 10-years 12.50% FGN APR 2032, recorded 84 per cent and 66 per cent under subscription respectively, as subscriptions stood at N11.75 billion and N25.62 billion respectively as against N75 billion offered for each bon tenor.

Consequently, the DMO could only achieve total sales of N123.9 billion, representing 45 per cent of its target for the month.

This was in spite of slight increases in the interest rates on the bonds offered by the DMO.

The auction results showed that the DMO raised the marginal rates for the 3-year, 10-year and 20-year bonds to 11.0 per cent from 10 per cent, 13.0 per cent from 12.5 per cent and 13.7 per cent from 13.2 per cent respectively in the June auction.

Analysts’ insight

Investment analysts however noted that for the DMO to attract investors to future auctions it would have to offer higher rates given the inflation rate of 18.6 per cent and MPR at 14 per cent.

While noting that in spite of the impact of scarcity of funds and increasing appetite triggered by the CBN’s tight monetary policy, on future bond auctions, they expect the DMO to meet its funding target of N3.53 trillion to finance the projected deficit of N7.35 trillion in the FGN’s 2022 budget.

Speaking in this regard, analysts at FBNQuest Securities, associated company in the First Bank Group, said: “The total amount raised by the DMO this year amounts to N1.7 trillion. If we include sales based on non-competitive allotment, the gross amount rises to N1.96 trillion. This excludes smaller sums raised via other instruments including Sukuk and the FGN savings bond.

“Despite the DMO’s disappointing outing, the sum raised so far by the agency suggests that it is broadly on track to raise its total domestic funding target of N3.5 trillion (including the additional borrowings of N965 billion following revisions to the budget).

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“However, the tight liquidity conditions in the market may continue to negatively affect demand at auctions in the near term.

“There are tougher credit conditions on the international market following monetary policy tightening by most central banks globally. This may force the FGN to turn to the domestic market to source some of the N2.6 trillion in external borrowing highlighted in the 2022 budget.

“The last resort would be for the fiscal deficit to become unfunded, or in other words, funded by ways and means advances from the CBN.

“Given the tight liquidity conditions in the market, we see yields inching up by around 25-50bps across the curve over the coming weeks.”

Similarly, analysts at United Capital Plc, associated company in the First Bank Group, said: “In line with our expectations of an uptick in the yield environment in the sovereign bonds market, marginal rates across all the tenors climbed 90bps, 50bps, and 60bps to print at 11.00%, 13.00% and 13.75%, respectively. Investors opted toward a more relaxed approach in the auction, demanding higher yields, as the expectation of inflation, interest rates, and political risks all begin to crystalise. These follow persistent inflation, monetary policy normalisation globally and the increased perception of political risk as we approach the electioneering season.

“We expect a continued uptick in marginal rates at subsequent bond auctions, as we believe investors will remain standoffish. The DMO will need to reel in higher rates to attract fund managers’ interests.

“Also, the recent hawkish stance adopted by the CBN, hiking rates by 250bps in total (100bps at July’s MPC meeting), will drive investor’s appetite for increased rates.

“Notwithstanding, we maintain the FG’s apparent need to rely on the domestic debt market to fund its fiscal imbalance, as external debt market conditions remain unfavourable. These factors will further impetus for shifting pricing power away from the FGN/DMO and into the hands of private sector asset managers.”

Related Topics:Borrowing Featured FG Monetary Policy

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Official, Black Market Rates Diverge as Naira Starts Week on Stable Note

Published

9 hours ago

April 13, 2026

Trends Admin

Official, Black Market Rates Diverge as Naira Starts Week on Stable Note

The Nigerian Naira began the new trading week on Monday, April 13, 2026, with slight movements against the United States Dollar across both the official and parallel foreign exchange markets, reflecting continued cautious stability in the currency environment.

In the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM), the official trading window, the Naira opened at about ₦1,358.84 per $1, before recording mild intraday fluctuations that pushed it briefly to around ₦1,362.08, before easing back toward the opening range.

The performance indicates a relatively stable session, supported by ongoing liquidity management efforts and sustained interventions by the Central Bank of Nigeria, which has continued to monitor dollar supply and demand in the banking system.

Analysts say the official market remains largely driven by inflows from oil exports, non-oil earnings, and diaspora remittances, all of which help moderate volatility in the NFEM window.

Parallel Market Remains Higher Amid Strong Demand

In contrast, the parallel market—commonly referred to as the black market—recorded significantly higher exchange rates as demand for dollars persisted among importers, traders, and individuals outside the official FX window.

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Reports from currency dealers in commercial hubs such as Lagos, Abuja, and Kano indicate that the Dollar traded between ₦1,460 and ₦1,485 during the morning session.

The wide gap between the official and parallel market rates continues to reflect structural pressures in Nigeria’s foreign exchange system, including limited liquidity access and high demand for foreign currency for imports, travel, and education-related payments.

Market Outlook and Sentiment

Financial analysts note that market sentiment remains cautious, with traders closely watching upcoming macroeconomic indicators, crude oil price movements, and possible policy signals from monetary authorities.

Experts also point out that the stability in the NFEM suggests that recent reforms and tightening measures in the foreign exchange market may be gradually improving transparency and liquidity management, even though pressure persists in the informal market segment.

For many Nigerians, fluctuations in the exchange rate continue to directly impact the cost of imported goods, fuel-related logistics, and overall inflation expectations, making daily FX movements a key economic indicator.

As of early Monday trading, market activity remained steady, with expectations that the Naira will continue to trade within a relatively narrow range unless triggered by major external shocks or policy adjustments.

Official, Black Market Rates Diverge as Naira Starts Week on Stable Note

Railway

FG pushes high-speed train, expands rail links to seaports

Published

1 day ago

April 12, 2026

Trends Admin

FG pushes high-speed train, expands rail links to seaports

The Federal Government has intensified efforts to modernise Nigeria’s rail system, setting up a high-speed rail committee and approving the expansion of rail connections to key seaports to boost cargo movement and ease logistics bottlenecks.

Managing Director of the Nigerian Railway Corporation (NRC), Kayode Opeifa, disclosed this at the quarterly stakeholders’ engagement of the Nigerian Ports Consultative Council.

In a statement by the NRC’s Chief Public Relations Officer, Callistus Unyimadu, Opeifa said the Office of the Secretary to the Government of the Federation had constituted a committee on high-speed rail development to drive initiative.
He disclosed that the Federal Government was seeking private sector participation in this regard.
The NRC boss also emphasised that seamless rail-port integration remained critical to unlocking the full benefits of ongoing maritime reforms.

Opeifa warned that investments in port infrastructure, including deep seaports, would continue to yield limited returns without efficient rail connectivity to move cargo inland.
He noted that while collaboration between the corporation and port authorities had improved—particularly under the administration of Bola Ahmed Tinubu—significant gaps remain in cargo evacuation from ports, especially in Lagos and along the eastern corridor.

He identified persistent bottlenecks in rail freight operations and called for targeted interventions to improve efficiency, stressing that a shift towards rail-based cargo movement is essential for a more reliable and cost-effective logistics system.

Highlighting ongoing and planned projects, Opeifa said the Federal Government has approved the extension of the Lagos–Ibadan standard gauge rail line to Apapa and Tin Can Island ports. He added that the Warri–Itakpe line would be linked to Warri Port, while the eastern narrow gauge is set to connect the Port Harcourt Port at Onne.

He further disclosed plans to link the Lagos–Kano western line to Baro Port, as part of a broader strategy to integrate all major ports into the national rail network.

On project updates, the NRC boss said the Kaduna–Kano rail corridor is nearing completion, while efforts are underway to connect existing rail lines directly to ports to reduce congestion and improve cargo evacuation.

He also revealed plans for a new rail line to the Lekki Deep Sea Port, expected to pass through Ijebu-Ode and Sagamu to Kajola, where it will link with the Lagos–Ibadan line. The project, he said, is likely to commence this year.

Describing rail connectivity to ports as a key driver of economic growth, Opeifa urged stakeholders, including truck operators, to support the initiative, noting that road transport would continue to play a complementary role in last-mile delivery.

He also called for the expansion of freight yards across both narrow and standard gauge lines to enhance cargo handling capacity and overall efficiency.

The stakeholders’ meeting brought together key players in the maritime and rail sectors to align strategies and strengthen collaboration towards building a more integrated and efficient national transport system.

Business

NNPC Remits N1.804 Trillion to Federation Account in February

Published

2 days ago

April 11, 2026

Trends Admin

Group Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd.), Mr. Bayo Ojulari

NNPC Remits N1.804 Trillion to Federation Account in February

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) has remitted N1.804 trillion to the Federation Account in February 2026, marking a significant jump from the N726 billion recorded in January, according to its latest Monthly Financial and Operational Report Summary.

The sharp increase highlights improved oil and gas revenue performance in Nigeria, stronger production output, and ongoing fiscal reforms aimed at boosting transparency and accountability in the petroleum sector.

NNPC Ltd reported that its total revenue increased to N2.68 trillion in February, up from N2.57 trillion in January, driven by higher crude oil sales, improved gas earnings, and operational efficiency gains across its assets. The company also recorded a profit after tax of N136 billion, reflecting improved financial performance despite fluctuations in global crude oil markets and domestic operational challenges.

According to the report, Nigeria’s crude oil and condensate production averaged 1.51 million barrels per day (bpd) in February 2026. NNPC attributed the output stability to improved asset reliability, faster resolution of evacuation constraints, and enhanced coordination with upstream operators across key oil fields.

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The rise in remittances follows major fiscal policy changes introduced by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in February 2026, including an Executive Order mandating full remittance of oil and gas revenues to the Federation Account. The directive also suspended the retention of management and frontier exploration fees previously deducted by NNPC Ltd and established an inter-agency committee led by the Minister of Finance to enforce compliance.

Officials say the reforms are designed to strengthen public revenue management in Nigeria, reduce leakages, and improve transparency in the oil sector.

The company said improved output was supported by infrastructure upgrades, better asset management, and stronger collaboration with industry stakeholders. It also highlighted progress on the Ajaokuta–Kaduna–Kano (AKK) gas pipeline project, noting that construction works are advancing toward early gas delivery to Abuja, a key milestone for Nigeria’s domestic gas expansion strategy.

The performance aligns with broader recovery trends in Nigeria’s oil industry, supported by efforts to curb crude theft, improve pipeline security, and enhance upstream efficiency. Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission) also indicates fluctuations but overall resilience in production levels, as the sector continues stabilisation reforms.

Analysts say sustained growth in NNPC remittances will depend on consistent crude production, stable global oil prices, and continued enforcement of fiscal transparency measures. As of the time of filing this report, NNPC Ltd has not provided additional breakdowns beyond its monthly financial summary.