CBN Forecasts ₦950 Petrol Price in 2026 Amid FX Stability, Lower Oil Prices

CBN Forecasts ₦950 Petrol Price in 2026 Amid FX Stability, Lower Oil Prices

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has projected that the pump price of petrol will average about ₦950 per litre in 2026, according to its 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook for Nigeria.

The projection is based on a set of baseline assumptions, including a moderation in global crude oil prices, relative stability in the foreign exchange market, and improved domestic oil production and refining capacity.

According to the apex bank, its outlook assumes an average crude oil price of $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and $55 per barrel in 2026, in line with forecasts by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) that rising inventories and global supply glut would weigh on prices.

The CBN also projected an average Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) rate of ₦1,451.63 per dollar in Q4 2025 and ₦1,400/$ in 2026, supported by improved FX efficiency, increased capital inflows, a current account surplus and broader economic activity.

Domestic crude oil production is expected to average about 1.5 million barrels per day, excluding condensates, throughout the forecast period. Within this framework, the bank said the price of premium motor spirit (PMS) is expected to “hover around ₦950 per litre in 2026,” slightly above current retail levels.

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“The baseline projections are predicated on crude oil prices, exchange rate stability, improved FX market efficiency, higher capital inflows, a current account surplus and stronger investor sentiment,” the CBN stated, adding that government spending would follow the 2025–2027 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) in line with an expansionary fiscal stance.

The outlook comes amid recent fluctuations in fuel prices following significant price cuts by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which reduced its gantry price from ₦828 to ₦699 per litre in December. The refinery’s retail partner, MRS Oil, subsequently sold petrol at ₦739 per litre, forcing other marketers to lower prices to remain competitive.

Despite the reductions, industry players note that the price cuts have come at a significant cost to refiners and importers. Earlier this week, the Dangote refinery warned that petrol prices could rise to as much as ₦1,400 per litre if Nigeria relies solely on fuel imports, describing domestic refining as a stabilising force in the downstream market.

The CBN acknowledged this role, noting that increased private sector investment in refining, improved security around oil assets and stable energy prices are expected to support stronger economic growth in 2026.

The bank also projected that headline inflation would decline to 12.94 per cent in 2026, from an estimated 21.26 per cent in 2025, driven by easing food prices and moderation in PMS prices as competition among midstream operators intensifies.

Globally, the CBN forecast a 5.52 per cent decline in commodity prices in 2026, with global energy prices expected to fall by 6.99 per cent, as Brent crude averages around $61 per barrel. Prices of metals and agricultural commodities are also projected to ease on weaker demand and improved supply conditions.

CBN Forecasts ₦950 Petrol Price in 2026 Amid FX Stability, Lower Oil Prices

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