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Details of observers damning reports on Edo gov election

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Details of observers damning reports on Edo gov election

Controversy has expectedly continued to trail the Edo governorship election which saw the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declaring Senator Monday Okpebolo of the All Progressives Congress (APC) the winner.

The results have been defended by the party that won and their sympathizers, but vigorously challenged by the two other candidates in the poll – Dr Asue Ighodalo of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Mr Olumide Akpata of the Labour Party (LP) – as well as their supporters. In this package, Sunday Vanguard publishes the verbatim reports of two observer groups to the election. Yiaga Africa’s report is signed by Dr. Aisha Abdullahi, Chair of the 2024 Edo Election Mission, and Samson Itodo, Executive Director, while Andrew Mamedu, Country Director, signed for ActionAid Nigeria.

Election failed integrity test/standards – Yiaga Africa, highlights inconsistencies in results

Introduction

On Saturday, September 21, 2024, Yiaga Africa deployed the Process and Results Verification for Transparency (PRVT) methodology to observe the Edo State governorship election.

This involved 300 stationary and 25 roving observers, covering a representative sample of polling units across all 18 LGAs.

The PRVT enables Yiaga Africa to independently assess the quality of Election Day processes and verify the accuracy of the official election results as announced by INEC.

Yiaga Africa observers also deployed to the state and LGA results collation centers to observe the process, ensuring timely and accurate reporting of the election process. Yiaga Africa has successfully deployed this methodology in two presidential elections and sixteen off-cycle governorship elections.

Yiaga Africa’s Election Day situation analysis statement highlighted logistical challenges that led to delays in the commencement of accreditation and voting at various polling units across the state. Inadequate planning in the supply of vehicles for transporting ad hoc officials and election materials, along with the absence of accompanying security personnel, further exacerbated the delays.

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Yiaga Africa also condemns acts of violence and disruption of voting and results collation process by political thugs and hoodlums, particularly violence directed at voters and election officials.
These unwholesome acts undermine the integrity of the elections.

Yiaga Africa extends its sympathies to citizens and polling officials who suffered severe injuries and loss of valuable properties due to these attacks and violence.

Yiaga Africa calls on security agencies to thoroughly investigate these cases of attacks and intimidation against voters and polling officials.

INEC’s official results

Yiaga Africa’s estimates are based on official results announced at the polling unit from a representative random sample of polling units.

As highlighted in our pre-election report, Yiaga Africa will, amongst other factors, consider the quality of Election Day processes in assessing whether the 2024 Edo governorship satisfies the electoral integrity test.

In this regard, Yiaga Africa considered the integrity of accreditation, voting, counting, and collation of results.

INEC consistently applied its guidelines in managing the accreditation and voting process in a significant number of polling units.

Despite some isolated incidents of inadequate election materials, the BVAS machines functioned optimally, and all voters in the queue by 2:30pm were allowed to vote, despite the late opening of polls.
The polling officials uploaded polling unit results on the IReV in a timely manner, making it possible for citizens to access polling unit level results.

However, the incidents of results manipulation and disruptions during ward and local government collation in Ikpoba/Okha, Etsako West, Egor and Oredo LGAs, including intimidation of INEC officials, observers and party agents and the collation of results, contrary to the provisions of the Electoral Act and INEC guidelines, severely undermine the credibility of the election results.

Inconsistencies

Based on reports received from the sampled polling units, Yiaga Africa can project the expected vote shares for each party within a narrow margin. However, Yiaga Africa is only able to verify the election outcome if it falls within its estimated margins.

If the official results do not fall within Yiaga Africa’s estimated ranges, then the results may have been manipulated.

According to INEC, the All Progressives Congress (APC) received 51.1% of the votes, People’s Democratic Party (PDP) 43.3% of the votes, and the Labor Party garnered 4.0% of the votes.

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Based on reports from 287 of 300 (96%) sampled polling units, Yiaga Africa’s statistical analysis shows inconsistencies in the official results announced by INEC.

For instance, the official results announced by INEC for APC in Oredo and Egor, LGAs fall outside the PRVT estimate.

In Esan West LGA, the official results for PDP fall outside the PRVT estimates.
Also, in Oredo LGA, the official results as announced for LP fall outside the PRVT estimates.
These inconsistencies with Yiaga Africa’s PRVT estimates indicate that the results were altered at the level of collation.

The disparities between the official results released by INEC and Yiaga Africa’s PRVT estimates indicate manipulation of results during the collation process.

Yiaga Africa strongly condemns the actions of some biased INEC officials who altered figures during collation including the actions of some security officials who interfered with the collation process. Yiaga Africa notes that the cases of disruption in Ikpoba/Okha, Etsako West, Egor, and Oredo LGAs in the course of collation created opportunities for election manipulation, raising significant concerns about the credibility and integrity of the results collation process.

Turnout Estimates

INEC’s turnout and rejected ballots for the 18 LGA released are consistent with Yiaga Africa WTV PRVT estimates.
Yiaga Africa is able to estimate that turnout is between 20.9% and 24.1% (22.5% ± 1.6%), while INEC’s official result is 22.4%.
Similarly, Yiaga Africa estimates for rejected ballots are between 2.2% and 3.2% (2.7% ± 0.5%).
Yiaga Africa notes that in terms of turnout, voters did not meet the resilience test as voter turnout plummeted despite high PVC collection rates recorded for the governorship election.

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In this election, only 22.4% of the voters turned out to exercise their civic rights, lower than the 27% turnout observed in 2020.
Nevertheless, Yiaga Africa commends the resilience of the voters who turned out despite the rain and voting delays, staying back to fulfill their civic duties.

Recommendations

  1. Yiaga Africa calls for the immediate investigation and prosecution of polling officials and collation officers who are engaged in results manipulation and flagrant violations of the guidelines on results collation.
  2. Yiaga Africa calls on INEC to urgently clarify the inconsistencies in some of the results, especially election results from Oredo, Egor, Esan West and LGAs.
  3. INEC should issue detailed guidelines for exercising its powers to review declarations and returns made contrary to provisions of the Electoral Act and regulations and guidelines. This should include procedures for receiving complaints, timeframe, format and who is eligible to submit complaints.
  4. It is imperative to integrate the IReV and electronic transmission of results into the electoral legal framework to confer legality on polling unit level results uploaded on the portal. To this end, the National Assembly should expeditiously amend the Electoral Act to make electronic transmission of results mandatory.

Conclusion

As noted in our pre-election reports, Yiaga Africa emphasized that the 2024 Edo governorship election would be assessed against three key parameters: the resilience test, impartiality test, and integrity test.
On the resilience test, despite early warnings of potential violence and adverse weather conditions, voter turnout was low.

While voters were given the opportunity to exercise their rights, many chose not to participate, resulting in a partial failure of the resilience test. Nevertheless, Yiaga Africa commends the resilience and patience of voters who did turn out, particularly in the face of logistical challenges and rainfall that caused late opening of polls.

On the impartiality test, Yiaga Africa monitored the role of security agencies and their engagement with the process.

Details of observers damning reports on Edo gov election

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Dangote Refinery Sets ₦525 Per Share for Landmark IPO

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Dangote Refinery IPO to start at N525/share
For ₦5,250, Nigerians could soon own a piece of the refinery that has reshaped the country’s fuel market.

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Hate Speech, Threats During Campaigns Attract ₦10m Fine, 12 Months Jail – INEC

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Hate Speech, Threats During Campaigns Attract ₦10m Fine, 12 Months Jail – INEC
Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Chairman Prof. Joash Ojo Amupitan

Hate Speech, Threats During Campaigns Attract ₦10m Fine, 12 Months Jail – INEC

The electoral commission says inflammatory rhetoric crosses into intimidation when it incites ethnic or religious hostility, as political actors ramp up campaign activities ahead of the 2027 general elections.

ABUJA, Nigeria – The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has warned politicians and political parties against using abusive, inflammatory, or threatening language during campaigns for the 2027 general elections, cautioning that offenders risk heavy financial penalties and possible imprisonment under the Electoral Act 2026. INEC’s Chief Press Secretary and Media Adviser to its Chairman, Adedayo Oketola, in a telephone interview on Sunday, said campaign rhetoric crosses the legal threshold into electoral intimidation the moment it moves beyond robust partisan debate or policy critique and enters the realm of coercion, hate speech, or the threat of harm. He cited Section 96 of the Electoral Act 2026, which states: “A political campaign or slogan shall not be tainted with abusive language directly or indirectly likely to injure religious, ethnic, tribal or sectional feelings.” The law further prohibits “abusive, intemperate, slanderous or base language, insinuations, innuendoes designed or likely to provoke violent reaction or emotions” in political campaigns. According to Oketola, rhetoric becomes punishable intimidation when it incites ethnic, religious, or regional hostility through language explicitly designed to provoke violent emotions or target specific groups. He explained that campaigns transition into outright intimidation when they threaten force or violence—whether by directly or indirectly warning voters, candidates, or electoral officials of physical harm, economic reprisal, or social ostracisation to compel or suppress support for a candidate. He stressed that political campaigns must not create an atmosphere of fear calculated to deter voter turnout or disenfranchise specific demographics.

Oketola disclosed that Section 96(7) of the Electoral Act 2026 prescribes severe statutory penalties for offenders. Candidates convicted of abusive campaign offences face a maximum fine of ₦5 million or imprisonment for 12 months, while political parties found liable risk a fine of ₦10 million for the first offence, and ₦2 million for each subsequent violation. While clarifying that INEC is not a security agency, Oketola explained that Section 95 of the Electoral Act 2026 explicitly prescribes the security architecture for political rallies in relation to the operational roles of the Nigeria Police Force, the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC), and other security institutions. He noted that beyond inter-agency security coordination, INEC is statutorily empowered to monitor political campaigns and enforce compliance with the Code of Conduct for Political Parties.

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The warning comes amid a fresh wave of threats by political office holders against dissenting voters, as parties intensify preparations for the 2027 elections. Among the most prominent cases is that of Osun East Senator, Francis Adenigba Fadahunsi, who was invited and questioned by the Nigeria Police Force over a viral video in which he was heard telling All Progressives Congress (APC) supporters in Ilesa, “Until the day of election, when you see any Accord party member here in Ilesa, kill them.” Governor Ademola Adeleke rejected his media office’s subsequent clarification, describing the remarks as a national security threat and demanding his arrest. Fadahunsi later claimed the video was AI-generated and that his statement was metaphorical—a “call to kill by votes.” In the Federal Capital Territory, the Chairman of Kuje Area Council, Samuel Danjuma Shekwolo, stirred controversy after warning residents who do not support the APC to relocate ahead of 2027. Amnesty International Nigeria condemned the remarks as a “call to violence” and an attack on freedom of association. In Borno State, the Commissioner for Youth and Sports Development, Sainna Buba, threatened that those who refuse to support the APC in 2027 “will be flogged,” while separately warning that anyone who crossed the ruling party would have a finger broken. In Yobe State, the state chairman of the APC, Alhaji Mohammed Gadaka, triggered widespread condemnation after urging married women to leave their husbands if the men stood in the way of their voting for the party—promising to personally settle the “new bride price” for any woman who ended her marriage on account of her loyalty to the party. He later withdrew the remark following public outcry. Other flashpoints include Kebbi State, where the Chairman of Gwandu Local Government Area, Alhaji Atiku Ahmad Mandiya, told supporters that anyone who spoke against Governor Nasir Idris “should be dealt with,” and Ebonyi State, where Governor Francis Nwifuru warned newly inaugurated local government chairmen that they would be removed from office if they failed to deliver their councils to the APC in 2027.

The International Republican Institute (IRI), in a pre-election assessment of Nigeria’s democratic environment, warned that persistent insecurity and election-related political violence are the biggest threats to Nigeria’s 2027 general elections. IRI President Daniel Twining stressed that where voters, candidates, and observers cannot participate without fear of violence or intimidation, technical improvements and legal safeguards have only limited effect. The IRI mission further warned that economic hardship, insecurity, and declining public trust in INEC pose significant threats to the credibility of the 2027 elections. It said grievances over the management of the 2023 presidential election continue to shape perceptions of INEC, while uncertainty over the implementation of new electoral provisions could deepen distrust. The mission recommended that INEC conduct more robust stress tests of its systems and mock elections to identify potential challenges with the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and the INEC Result Viewing (IReV) portal. The National Peace Committee, through its Election Security Information Hub, recorded 2,510 election-related security incidents across the country in just 14 months, affecting at least 70 off-cycle elections, bye-elections and reruns since 2023. Zamfara, Borno, Kaduna, Niger, Benue and Plateau were identified as the states worst affected, with banditry, kidnapping and terrorism posing continuing threats to electoral activities.

Oketola insisted that electoral integrity cannot be preserved by INEC alone, describing it as a collective stakeholder duty. “The Nigeria Police Force and other security agencies have a clear duty to prevent the breakdown of law and order during political campaigns,” he said. He added that the media must actively play its watchdog role by calling out purveyors of incendiary statements, while traditional and religious leaders must also wade in, using their moral authority to encourage politicians to eschew inflammatory rhetoric and avoid provoking violence in the country. “Political campaigns should be platforms of competing ideas, not theatres of war,” Oketola said.

Hate Speech, Threats During Campaigns Attract ₦10m Fine, 12 Months Jail – INEC

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Market Fire in Indonesia Kills 11, Including Six Children

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Market Fire in Indonesia Kills 11, Including Six Children

Market Fire in Indonesia Kills 11, Including Six Children

A blaze in Central Papua province destroyed about 40 buildings and left a community in mourning, with authorities investigating the cause.

JAKARTA, Indonesia – At least 11 people, including six children, have died after a fire tore through a market and nearby buildings in Indonesia’s eastern Papua region, police said on Monday. The fire broke out shortly after midnight local time in Paniai, Central Papua province, and quickly spread to several shophouses, according to local police spokesman Henry Manurung. “During the inspection, officers found 11 victims who had died with burn injuries. Of the 11 victims, five of them were adults, while the other six were children,” Henry said in a statement. He said the children were aged between two and nine years old. The blaze raged for more than three hours, destroying at least 40 kiosks and houses despite the deployment of fire trucks and water cannons. Authorities were still investigating the cause of the fire.

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Henry attributed the difficulty in extinguishing the blaze to the arrangement of the buildings in the area. “The intensity of the blaze and the fact that the houses and stalls were all packed tightly together made the firefighting process take quite a long time,” he said. Deadly fires are relatively common in Indonesia, where densely packed buildings and inadequate fire-safety measures can make blazes difficult to contain.

This tragedy follows a series of deadly fires in Indonesia in recent years, highlighting ongoing safety concerns. In December 2025, 22 people were killed when fire swept through a seven-storey office building in Central Jakarta. Police said an exploding drone battery on the ground floor was the likely cause. Also in December 2025, a fire at a shop in Central Jakarta killed 7 people. In 2023, an explosion at a nickel-processing plant in eastern Indonesia killed at least 12 people.

Market Fire in Indonesia Kills 11, Including Six Children

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