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Nigeria at risk of becoming a failed state ― Financial Times

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A UK-based newspaper, The Financial Times, has reported that Nigeria is at risk of becoming a failed state.

It stated this in an editorial published on Tuesday, noting that the spate of insecurity in the country showed “the government is no longer in control.”

Financial Times stated that Nigeria and its government “must redouble efforts to get a grip on security.”

The editorial also stated that Nigeria “needs to restore trust in key institutions, among them the judiciary, the security services and the electoral commission, which will preside over the 2023 elections.”

Even as it declared that the young people in Nigeria were more than capable to turn the country round, the editorial warned that if nothing was done before the population would double to 400 million by 2050, Nigeria could become a problem far too big for the world to ignore.

The editorial is presented below:

More than 300 Nigerian schoolboys were reunited with their families last weekend, days after they had been abducted by kidnappers from their dormitory in the country’s North-West.

The kidnapping revived memories of the 276 Chibok schoolgirls abducted in Borno State in 2014. Just as then, Boko Haram, the militant Islamist group, claimed responsibility.

But the government insisted no ransom was paid.

A failed state is one where the government is no longer in control. Africa’s most populous country is said to be teetering on the brink.

President Muhammadu Buhari in 2015 pronounced Boko Haram “technically defeated”.

But Boko Haram has remained a constant threat.

And if the latest kidnapping turns out to be its work, it would mark the spread of the terrorist group from its north-eastern base.

Even if the mass abduction was carried out by “ordinary” bandits — as now looks possible — it underlines the fact of chronic criminality and violence. Deadly clashes between herders and settled farmers have spread to most parts of Nigeria. In the oil-rich, but impoverished, Delta region, extortion through the sabotage of pipelines is legendary.

Extortion is a potent symbol for a state whose modus operandi is the extraction of oil revenue from central coffers to pay for a bloated, ruinously inefficient, political elite. Security is not the only area where the state is failing. Nigeria has more poor people, defined as those living on less than $1.90 a day, than any other country, including India. In non-Covid-19 years, one of every five children in the world out of school lives in Nigeria, many of them girls.

The population, already above 200m, is growing at a breakneck 3.2 per cent a year. The economy has stalled since 2015 and real living standards are declining. This year, the economy will shrink four per cent after COVID-19 dealt a further blow to oil prices. In any case, as the world turns greener, the elite’s scramble for oil revenue will become a game of diminishing returns. The country desperately needs to put its finances, propped up by foreign borrowing, on a sounder footing.

In its three remaining years, the government of Mr Buhari must seek to draw a line in the sand. It must redouble efforts to get a grip on security. It also needs to restore trust in key institutions, among them the judiciary, the security services and the electoral commission, which will preside over the 2023 elections.

More than that, Nigeria needs a generational shift. The broad coalition that found political expression this year in the EndSARS movement against police brutality provides a shard of optimism. At least Nigeria has a relatively stable democracy. Now Nigeria’s youth — creative, entrepreneurial and less tainted by the politics of extraction — should use that system to reset the country’s narrative.

A new, slimmed-down state — ideally one with fewer, bankrupt regional assemblies — must concentrate on the basics: security, health, education, power and roads. With those public goods in place, Nigeria’s young people are more than capable of turning the country round. At the present trajectory, the population will double to 400m by 2050. If nothing is done, long before then, Nigeria will become a problem far too big for the world to ignore.

Governors Forum Decries Insecurity In North-West

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By Tribune Online On Dec 22, 2020

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The Chairman, Nigeria Governors Forum, Dr Kayode Fayemi, the Governor of Ekiti State has expressed the concerns of the forum over the security situation in the North- West and the country at large, promising to collaborate with the Federal Government to bring an end to the menace.

Dr Fayemi made this assertion when he led the Governors of Sokoto, Kebbi and Jigawa states on a solidarity visit to Katsina State Governor Aminu Bello Masari at the Government House Katsina, on Tuesday.

“For us, the Nigeria Governors Forum, we believe that we not only have to be tough on banditry, on kidnapping, on criminality generally, but we also have to be tough on the cause of the problem.

“Socio inequality, poverty are key issues, and we need to be able to ensure that our states pry away our young people from the merchants of death who are using them as cannon fodder of this criminal brigandage,” he said.

“And we can only do that by providing them with alternative means of livelihood and support system that’ll not entice them to these elements that are endangering the whole of our country.”

“However, we as governors are still very concerned about the security situation in the North-West and in the entire country. This is almost a daily occurrence,” he said, adding that, the governor is spending the state lean resources on both material and human on this priority issue which pervades the whole of our country.

“We want to thank His Excellency, the President for being abreast of the situation and for working closely with the governor of Katsina state in ensuring that the kids were retrieved from the forest in Zamfara with the assistance of the players who were critical to that retrieval- Miyetti Allah, the military, our brother the governor of Zamfara State,” he added.

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“And this is something that we are committed to as governors in working with Mr President in working with all our colleagues so that we don’t keep talking about the same thing over and over again”.

“We’re all tired, we’re all frustrated that these issues are happening, but we know that with concerted efforts on our part as governors and commitment of the federal government and professional conduct of our security services and our social investment programme intensified; we shall see to the end of this criminality, this brigandage in our states,” the NGF boss said.

“And this is something that we are committed to as governors in working with Mr President in working with all our colleagues so that we don’t keep talking about the same thing over and over again”, Fayemi concluded.

In his remark, Masari thanked his colleagues for the concern, urging them to join hands together to defeat the enemies and safeguard the lives and properties of their people.

“The issue of security is the issue of all citizens, people should not join security with politics; no leader wishes the people he swore to protect are in turn being killed.”

Opinion

2023: It’s Tinubu or Atiku, not Obi, by Tunde Odesola

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Tunde Odesola

Broken in every bone, life hangs by the thread for 62-year-old comatose patient, Nigeria, inside the intensive care unit of the decrepit Ass-o-Rock hospital, Abuja, where it nurses diseased kidneys, liver cirrhosis and an enlarged heart while the Chief Physician, Dr. M. Buhari, stands by with a shroud, clutching a book entitled: “From national hero to regional zero.”

This doctor is as useful to the patient as glaucoma is useful to sight. As a novice, I lay no claim to science but I love the art and science of science.

I’m fascinated by pharmacy, a branch of clinical health science that links medical science with chemistry in the discovery, production, disposal, use and control of medications and drugs.

“Na madness we dey use cure madness” is a pidginised proverb that means: “Wèrè la fi n wo wèrè,” in Yoruba translation. Nigeria is gasping. It urgently needs a miracle drug. But drug production is a deep and technical endeavour. Sometimes, it entails a fire-for-fire approach, that is, a particular virus could be remodified and synthesised to make drugs for the treatment or cure of a particular viral disease as it is the case with HIV, for instance.

However, in the case of some viral diseases such as  COVID, for example, a non-viral drug, vaccine, is used for treatment. COVID vaccine, in this case, is a novel drug synthesised from either natural or artificial components to fight the viral infection. I’ll call this a fire-for-water approach.

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Conversely, for the fast-approaching 2023 presidential election, the dying patient, Nigeria, is faced with either taking the fire-for-fire approach or the fire-for-water approach.

If Nigeria takes the fire-for-fire approach, it means she is settling for a candidate that had been part and parcel of the old political order; a politician who had been elected on the platform of one of the existing dubious political parties as vice president, governor, senator or minister.

But to take the fire-for-water approach means Nigeria breaking away from the politicians of old to elect a new-breed politician who has never tasted political power. An example of this type of politician is Mr Omoyele Sowore of the African Action Congress.

Bola Tinubu (All Progressives Congress)
The former Lagos governor is faced with a dual-action Buharian pill that can both kill and save his ambition. The atrocious performance of Buhari in two terms of office is  a sword of Damocles hanging over Tinubu’s head,  and for which he has been justifiably criticised in the South, but, on the other hand, President Muhammadu Buhari still wields a great influence in the large North which votes on the command of its leaders, ethnicity and religion.

If the APC northern governors and Buhari fully support Tinubu in the election, the Iragbiji-Lagos political strategist, with a baggage of birth, education and corruption controversies, will be Nigeria’s next president because majority of northern votes and South-West votes are what he needs to earn a four-year tenancy in Aso Rock. Tinubu’ll win all South-West states.

Tinubu cannot be dismissed with a wave of the hand because doing so may come at a peril. An old warhorse, whose health is suspect, Tinubu understands how to exploit the master-servant nature of Nigerian politics to the hilt, offering the carrot where necessary, and whacking down the stick on the heads of threatening rivals and proteges disturbing the peace of Bourdillon.

Having been senator in the aborted political experiment of the Third Republic, Tinubu is the most experienced, sophisticated and shrewdest of the three leading candidates, whose political tentacles cover the length and breadth of the country.

With his war chest of dollars, federal might and the uncanny ability to deploy science and fiction to win elections, Tinubu is one of the two major forces most likely to win the election.

Tinubu is a fire-for-fire drug. Will he prove a remodified virus to be injected into the sick patient, Nigeria, for  a cure? Or, is Nigeria now so cancerous that an attempt to destroy the cancer cells by a Tinubu pill will lead to death?

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Atiku Abubakar (Peoples Democratic Party)
Atiku stands a good chance to emerge Nigeria’s president next year if the Hausa-Fulani political hegemony decides that power should remain in the North and condemn Tinubu to gaze at the bye-bye evening sun, singing ‘Mai kolo kolo, to your tent, oh Tinubu!’

Former Vice President Atiku’s admission of the corrupt and woeful performance of former President Olusegun Obasanjo in the area of power supply shows candour. It also shows contempt because he never apologised to Nigerians over the issue.

His controversial role in the privatisation of Nigeria’s companies and the  hazy Halliburton scandal are sore points in a mixed-bag political career.

Because the North doesn’t subject its leaders to public scrutiny as much as the South does, coupled with the fact that ethnicity is a big factor in Northern politics, Atiku’s foothold in the climb to Aso Rock is strong.

However, the internal crisis wracking the PDP may whittle down Atiku’s chances to the ultimate advantage of Tinubu, who would be glad if the planned move of Governors Nyesom Wike of Rivers State and Seyi Makinde of Oyo State to Labour Party materialises because it would mean Labour Party would share votes with the PDP in the South-East and South-South.

That Buhari defeated Atiku in the North in 2019 reflected the former’s large following. Without Buhari being on the 2023 ballot, however, the North may decide to allow ethnicity dictate its choice for president, and swing their votes for Atiku – given the backing of General Ibrahim Babangida, General Theophilus Danjuma and General Aliyu Gusau, who are PDP power brokers from the North.

Also, the way Sokoto State Governor, Aminu Tambuwal, withdrew from the presidential primary and queued behind Atiku showed that he acted in the interest of some powerful northern forces, shocking the Wike camp, and wrecking their permutation to pave the way for an Atiku victory.

Wike is politically hurt, and he’s fuming with vegeance against certain interests, mostly retired generals within the PDP, who decided to cut him to size by scuttling moves to make him VP candidate after he lost to Atiku because his group was seen as trying to check the influence of the generals, which saw former Governor of Osun, Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola, lose the bid to become PDP chairman.

The crisis, if not resolved, will hurt the PDP.

Peter Obi (Labour Party)
If any tribe should feel entitled and stake their claim to the Presidency, chanting, “Emi lokan,” it’s the Igbo that should – in a federation that has grown suspicious of them since the January 1966 coup and the July 1966 retaliatory counter-coup, yet the Nigerian political knee has been hard on the Igbo neck, making breathing difficult.

It’s in this light that the psychology of Obi’s quest for the presidency is mainly backed by the Igbo vociferously.

In Nigeria’s political demography, however, the South-East region possesses the least voter population among the three main regions whose indigenes are contesting.

Inarguably, the Igbo, being itinerant, have presence in all states of the federation, but there’s no state where they outnumber the natives.

Inasmuch as I’ve repeatedly canvassed for the Igbo to ascend the presidency of this country for fairness sake, it, sadly, won’t happen in 2023.

That politics is an organised, structured and money-gulping game is the reason why no ‘structureless’ independent candidate has ever won the US presidency since the advent of party politics. Nigeria is no different.

Though Obi has a smaller bag of controversies, to win the presidency in a nation with 176,846 polling units spread across 774 local government councils nationwide, Obi needs to win majority votes and 25% of votes in at least 24 of Nigeria’s 36 states, mobilising party agents.

The Obi movement hasn’t the clout for this yet – evident in the poor performance of his party in the Osun governorship election, despite his involvement. Obi would be ready in 2027 if he builds political bridges and provides credible alternatives to the victor of this impending election charade.

Email: tundeodes2003@yahoo.com; Facebook: @tunde odesola; Twitter: @tunde_odesola.

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Opinion – Buhari: Yoruba can go to blazes by Tunde Odesola

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(Published in The PUNCH on Monday, September 26, 2022)

Until science unmasked the myth of the jungle and brought the secrets of wildlife home to man via the television, little did the world know the lion wasn’t the king of animals. Yep, the world never fully realised that the lion, when alone, was a potential danger, whose presumed invincibility is magnified by the strength in collective hunting, otherwise known as collective looting in Nigeria’s political circles: Kill and chop.

Partly owing to man’s predilection for royalty and the lack of adequate understanding of the jungle, humans ascribe kingship to the lion because of its crown-like mane, overlooking the biggest, fiercest and most powerful of the cats, the tiger; as well as the biggest of the beasts, the elephant, both of whom can kill the lion – one-on-one.

It’s a lesson in survival tactics when a full-grown lion tactically strays away from the path of the hippopotamus or swishes its tail in respect when a rhinoceros scuttles past.

One-on-one, the lion would be dead meat to the grizzly bear, neither can it single-handedly kill the giraffe, who can kick with the four legs, and would only stand a 50-50 chance in a duel with a silverback gorilla.

When I watched a video, in which a threatening pride of lions was afraid to go near a battle-ready porcupine, I remembered the Yoruba proverb, “kí kéré labẹ́rẹ́ kéré, kìí se mímì fádìyẹ,” and understood the taboo which the needle in the haystack has become for the chicken.

Brimming with muscular pounds of strength, the bull’s physicality is etched in stone. Mentally, however, its head is a vacuous cavity lacking the brain needed to survive jungle predators. The meat of the bull cannot be food for a lone lion except lions hunt in packs to beat starvation.

Predictably, there would be an imbalance in the food chain if bulls were wise enough to collectively repel lions. But bulls won’t attack lions because it’s in their DNA to be docile, to be big-for-nothing and stupid, except for occasional acts of resistance when the hunted turns around to gore the hunter.

We, Nigerians, are bulls. The retired Major General Muhammadu Buhari-led government is a pride of lions – cowardly bullies devouring ancestral patrimony and trampling on the rights of the timid masses incapable of thinking because that’s the way the governing lions want them to be in the jungle called Nigeria.

If the lineage of lions had not messed up the minds of Nigerians, the masses would have realised the power in their numbers and risen to liberate themselves from insecurity, totally collapsed infrastructure, poverty and starvation. Nobody, except uniformed servants like the members of the Lagos transport union and destined slaves, would be associating with the All Progressives Congress today.

In the nonsensicality of his wisdom, the king of Nigeria’s namby-pamby pride of lions, Buhari, approved for state-owned security corps in Katsina and Borno to bear AK-47 guns but he denied the request of Ondo State Governor, Mr Rotimi Akeredolu, for the Western Nigerian Security Network Agency aka Amotekun security corps to bear arms.

Although I’m not at all sold on the candidacy of the Peoples Democratic Party candidate, Atiku Abubakar, and that of the Labour Party candidate, Peter Obi, for both are cut from the worse-for-wear Peoples Democratic Party cloth, the hypocritical actions of Buhari since 2015 are nails long enough to seal the coffin of the APC.

Akeredolu, miffed by the nepotism of the Emir, Northern caliphate, Sheikh Muhammadu ibn Buhari, accused the ex-soldier who was booted out of the Army in August 1985, of deliberately exposing Yoruba lives to marauders and destroying the region’s agricultural sector.

Akeredolu, who is the Chairman, South-West Governors’ Forum, said, “Denying Amotekun the urgently needed rights to legitimately bear arms is a repudiation of the basis of true federalism, which we have been clamouring for. That Katsina was able to arm its state security force with AK-47 means we are pursuing a one-country, two-system solution to the national question.

“If the Katsina situation confers advantages on some, in the face of commonly faced existential threats, it means that our unitary policing system, which has failed, is a deliberate method of subjugation which must be challenged.”

Chairman, Afenifere Renewal Group, and former Secretary General, National Democratic Coalition, Honourable Wale Oshun, also accused Nigeria of double standards in approving arms for Borno State JTF and Katsina State security unit while denying Yoruba states of the same gesture.

In a telephone chat with me on Sunday, Oshun particularly bemoaned the proliferation of arms and ammunition in the South-West, warning that the instability in the system portended grave danger for the entire country.

He asked in the video, “Why should Borno JTF and Katsina State Security Unit have arms approved for them by the unitary government yet Amotekun, in the face of flagrant incursion into Yoruba land by unidentified ethnic terrorists of both local and foreign origins, cannot carry arms, why?

“Afenifere Renewal Group contends that it is this kind of impunity by the unitary government of Nigeria and the subversion of federation principles that brought us to this low levels of flagrant insecurity, collapse of our educational system and the massively impoverished populace in our country.”

Oshun, who commended Akeredolu, said irrespective of the 2023 elections and the pretence that democracy was on course, Nigeria would only survive as a country only when the required constitutional restructuring was carried out.

“No section of the country can hold it (Nigeria) together on the sheer force of arms on a permanent basis. It will only remain together if we, all Nigerians, agree to let it remain together,” he said.

Like a people with bull brains, Nigerians rankadedelise our tormentors, who shut university gates against our children, we live in abject darkness, daily waste five hours of our lives on the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway, and nod to ghastly Emi Lokan rhythm by the minstrel of Bourdillon.

I’ll reiterate for the umpteenth time that none among the APC presidential candidate, Bola Tinubu, Atiku and Obi is seeking office to genuinely develop Nigeria; all are seeking office for the power, perks and paraphernalia therein.

I say this because each of the presidential candidates knows that no development can emanate from the continued use of the pro-North 1999 Constitution, which supports the current madness ailing our dear country. But none of them has said the obvious nor explained how to bring about the desired constitutional amendment alias restructuring.

Going by political history and emerging indications from the camps of the APC, PDP and LP, the reading of the political barometer of the APC in the South-West shows a propensity for vote buying, ballot snatching and violence, exactly the same indications on the PDP Northern barometer which has child-voting to boot while the LP barometer on the South-East axis shows divisive comments, ethnicism and cyber bullying.

Conducting the 2023 elections without restructuring, and expecting a change in the fortunes of the country is like fetching water with a basket or heading up North from Abuja and expecting to land in Calabar.

No matter the amount of prayers and well wishes, nothing good will come out of Nigeria except we, Nigerians, lay the foundation for greatness by addressing the inherent injustices in the system.

God has never come down to help any people develop their country. As we lay our bed, we will lie on it.


Email: tundeodes2003@yahoo.com
Facebook: @tunde odesola
Twitter: @tunde_odesola

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OPINION: Queen Elizabeth: Saint or satan? By Tunde Odesola

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(Extracts from the piece published in The PUNCH on Monday, September 12, 2022)
The serene ambience of Heaven’s Gate was rowdy this morning. It’s true the dead don’t bite. But they do protest, just like they are doing this morning. Dead citizens from almost all the 56 countries making up the Commonwealth of Nations, which the Queen headed while alive, had stormed Heaven’s Gate, bearing placards with various inscriptions, urging the banishment of Queen Elizabeth to hell.
Some of the placards read, “Here comes the Queen of Slavery,” “Elizabeth lineage disrupted God’s earthly order, she doesn’t deserve paradise,” “Elizabeth’s Britain: The most corrupt empire ever,” “Elizabeth, Hypocrisy Queen,” “The world would’ve been better without Elizabeth’s bloodline.”
The angels had a tough time controlling the surging protesters, especially those from Nigeria, where hate had replaced national conscience, and pessimism had pummelled patriotism into submission, leaving ethnicity, intolerance, nepotism and treachery as enduring branches on the tree of corruption.
“We no go gree o, we no go gree…,” the Nigerian protesters chorused, looking for discarded tyres, matches and fuel, but Queen Elizabeth was calm and unmoved, stern and unblinking in her bulletproof chariot.
When they couldn’t get anything to burn, the protesters later changed their song to, “Water run away my eyes,” mentioning epochs like colonisation, the 1914 amalgamation of Nigeria, the looting of Nigeria’s artefacts and resources by Britain, among others.
Also, the protesters shouted ‘Three gbosa’ as they mentioned the names of some departed activists such as Funmilayo Ransome-Kuti, Mallam Aminu Kano, Chinua Achebe, Gani Fawehinmi, Fela Anikulapo-Kuti, Tai Solarin, Beko Ransome-Kuti, Olikoye Ransome-Kuti, Ken Saro-Wiwa, whose pictures they held high up.
Simultaneously, many deceased Caucasians rose from the back of beyond and rallied to the defence of the Queen, chanting and spoiling for a free-for-all – all floating at Heaven’s Gate.
In the midst of the cacophony, the Queen calmly stepped out of the chariot, and walked towards Heaven’s Gate, her pedicured feet fleeting on the wavy clouds. But the Nigerian protesters rushed to the gate, their hands interlocking to form a barricade of bodies.
With the fire in her eyes protesting the unheard-of affront, the Queen, in a controlled tone, said under her breath, “Blimey! To what do I ascribe this crackbrained display of irritability? Is this the reward for civilising a backward people without history?
The Nigerian protesters roared in unison, calling attention to the Queen’s use of hate speech: “Did you hear that, Angels Gabriel, Raphael and Uriel!? She thinks she’s still in her empire built with the sweat and blood of blacks.
Queen: Blast and fog! The earlier you know enemies aren’t permanent, only interests are, the better your understanding of global politics and power, and the more profitable it’s for you.
Protesters: Shame! Britain undermined Nigeria!
Queen: Lie! Britain saved Nigerian masses from the feudal oppression of greedy leaders who sold fellow Nigerians into slavery for mirror, gin, gunpowder and foreign food.
Protesters: If Britain didn’t colonise us, we would’ve been a superpower today?
Queen: On my life, Nigeria would have remained a merciless jungle dominated by wife-snatching and land-grabbing feudal lords, where only the rich and powerful thrive. Britain couldn’t colonise Ethiopia, though we tried. We couldn’t break their unity. Mark you, Canada, Australia, Hong Kong, India, and New Zealand were former British colonies doing wonders today.
Protesters: You bequeathed a terrible political heritage to us, forcing the weak and unenthusiastic North on the strong and progressive South.
Queen: You allowed that preferential sleight to become an albatross when the South-East sought to upturn the political order by killing military leaders mainly from the North.
Protesters: Stop that divisive rhetoric! The South-East didn’t set out to annihilate military officers from other regions, it was a military coup in which logistics and plans went awry.
Queen: Tell that to the marines!
Protesters: Every country you set foot in becomes a story of pilferage, pillage and plunder.
Queen: I colonised Ghana, too. See what Ghanaian leaders have made of their country, see what Nigerian leaders have turned Nigeria into. Why did former Prime Minister David Cameron describe Nigeria as fantastically corrupt? It’s because billions of Nigerian dollars are stacked in foreign banks.
Protesters: Britain is also guilty; it colludes with Nigerian leaders to syphon Nigerian funds abroad…
Queen: Shut that latrine you call a mouth! Did Britain collude with Abacha to relocate the Central Bank of Nigeria abroad? By Jove, you have no idea how much other leaders stole from 1976 till date. When I administered your country, electricity was constant, roads were good, hospitals were functional, there was no ASUU strike, there was employment, life had meaning. It’s my bet that Nigeria of the slave trade era was better than Nigeria of today because life had a price tag then, it wasn’t as brutish and valueless as it is today.
(The protesters began to break off gradually, slinking back to the underworld one by one)
Queen: Did Britain also induce your prodigal leaders to jump on planes to London for mere meetings they can hold in the excellent Nigerian weather? Does that singular act not show that shame is a scarce commodity among your political elite? I’m very proud to lead a small country in population and landmass into the realm of global power. Love, kindness and patriotism are key components lacking in your country’s leadership.
Few remaining protesters: You’re the poisonous contaminant that polluted the confluences of our separate rivers, and made us sick, cancerous and vulnerable till date…
Queen: She ignores the few remaining protesters, peacocks majestically to the gate and asks Angel Michael who sits before the Book of Life if her name is in there.
Angel Michael: I have searched the Book of Life seven times, not once did I find your name therein.
Transfixed, the Queen goes pale, then red, and blank, sweat oozes from every pore on her body. The cool, heavenly clouds gradually turn into harsh, dry wind, becoming hotter by each passing second.
Email: tundeodes2003@yahoo.com
Facebook: @tunde odesola
Twitter: @tunde_odesola
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