Nigeria’s Terror Paradox: If Authorities Know the Criminals, Why Do Attacks Continue?

Nigeria’s Terror Paradox: If Authorities Know the Criminals, Why Do Attacks Continue?

Nigeria’s seemingly endless war against terrorism in Nigeria, banditry in northern Nigeria, and the growing kidnapping crisis in Nigeria continues to raise one troubling question.

It echoes after every mass burial of villagers killed in midnight attacks. It lingers in deserted communities where farms lie abandoned and classrooms stand empty. It trembles in the voices of parents who send their children to school each morning with silent prayers that they will return safely.

The question is simple but deeply unsettling: If the government knows who the terrorists are and where they hide, why do they still roam free?

This question has gained renewed attention following claims by prominent figures, security experts and even serving officers who insist that intelligence about armed groups already exists. According to them, the identities of several criminal networks responsible for bandit attacks in Nigeria are known and their locations mapped. Yet the killings continue.

The gap between what authorities allegedly know and what is actually done has become one of the most disturbing paradoxes in Nigeria’s ongoing security crisis in northern Nigeria.

The debate intensified recently when Islamic cleric Ahmad Abubakar Gumi, who has often positioned himself as a mediator between authorities and armed groups, made a striking claim during a television interview. Speaking on DRTV, Gumi said the Nigerian government already knows the identities and locations of terrorists operating across the country.

“The government knows every terrorist by name and by location,” he said.

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The cleric also disclosed that some of his controversial visits to forests where bandits operate were conducted under the watch of security agencies. His statement raised an uncomfortable question for many Nigerians: if a cleric can walk into bandit camps with security escorts, why is it so difficult for the state to dismantle those camps entirely? Gumi has long advocated dialogue with armed groups as a strategy for reducing violence in the north-west, a stance that has generated intense debate among security analysts and government officials.

The controversy deepened when Zamfara State Governor Dauda Lawal also suggested that intelligence on bandit leaders exists. In a widely circulated video recorded in September 2025, the governor expressed frustration over persistent attacks in his state.

“I swear to Almighty Allah, wherever a bandit leader is in Zamfara State, I know it. If he moves, I know,” he said.

According to Lawal, modern surveillance tools make it possible to monitor the movements of some criminal groups. However, he explained that operational decisions regarding security deployments largely fall under federal authorities rather than state governments. This has left many governors frustrated as communities continue to face banditry in northern Nigeria.

Adding fuel to the debate, former Kaduna State governor Nasir El-Rufai earlier alleged that authorities once attempted to discourage bandits by secretly paying them to stop attacks — a claim that sparked nationwide controversy.

Across northern Nigeria, several bandit commanders have become widely known to residents living in affected communities. Among the most feared is Bello Turji, a notorious warlord linked to attacks and kidnappings across Zamfara and Sokoto states. His group has been blamed for deadly raids on rural settlements and large-scale abductions. Another feared figure is Dogo Giɗe, whose network has been associated with mass kidnappings and violent raids in several north-western states. Despite repeated military operations targeting such groups, they have continued to launch attacks, raising questions about the effectiveness of Nigeria’s counter-terrorism operations.

Nigeria’s insecurity has evolved beyond a single insurgent movement. Today, the country faces multiple armed threats including Boko Haram insurgency, Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), bandit gangs operating across north-western states, and organized kidnap-for-ransom networks. Over the past decade, tens of thousands of people have been killed while millions have been displaced from their homes. Entire communities have been abandoned as farmers flee their land and schools shut down due to attacks. In some regions, local vigilante groups have emerged to defend communities where security forces remain overstretched.

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Security analysts say the crisis is complicated by geography, governance failures and regional instability. According to intelligence and security consultant Yahuza Getzo, Nigeria’s porous borders play a major role in sustaining armed violence. Weapons and fighters move across borders linking Nigeria with Niger, Chad, Cameroon and Benin, creating a vast network of cross-border criminal activity.

“The security challenges we face are influenced by our neighbours and trans-border trade routes,” he said.

Getzo also raised concerns about accountability within Nigeria’s security architecture. “Yes, we may have equipment and gadgets, but the real question is whether we are holding personnel accountable for using them effectively.” Some analysts argue that intelligence alone cannot end the crisis without stronger coordination between security agencies and political authorities.

Another factor fueling violence is the growing criminal economy built around kidnapping in Nigeria. Retired United States Army officer Capt. Bishop Johnson believes ransom payments have transformed kidnapping into a highly profitable enterprise for armed groups.

“If you come into Nigeria and you are able to kidnap people and ransom is paid, your life changes,” he said.

Johnson also pointed to illegal mining as another driver of violence in northern Nigeria. Some regions rich in mineral resources are believed to be controlled by criminal groups that exploit gold deposits while using armed attacks as diversions.

Nigeria has also introduced a controversial deradicalisation programme aimed at rehabilitating former insurgents. Under the federal government’s Operation Safe Corridor, thousands of fighters have surrendered and undergone rehabilitation before being reintegrated into society. Officials say more than 2,600 former insurgents have completed the programme. Supporters believe the initiative weakens insurgent groups by encouraging defections. However, critics worry that the policy could allow dangerous individuals to return to communities without sufficient monitoring. Some serving officers have privately raised concerns that individuals who once fought alongside terrorist groups may still maintain connections with active networks, potentially contributing to intelligence leaks in security operations. Authorities strongly deny that repentant insurgents are integrated into military units.

Security expert Dr Tony Ofoyetan believes Nigeria’s terrorism crisis is rooted in deeper networks operating quietly within communities. He warned about sleeper cells — individuals who live ordinary lives while secretly gathering intelligence for armed groups. They may appear as traders, shop owners or ordinary residents while quietly collecting information about security weaknesses. According to Ofoyetan, terrorist attacks often represent the final stage of a long planning process that involves infiltration and surveillance.

Retired naval officer Rear Admiral Dickson Olisemelor has also questioned the scale of bandit movements across rural areas. In some cases, large groups of armed men travelling on motorcycles have reportedly moved through communities before launching attacks on villages or schools. Such incidents have reinforced public suspicion that the war against banditry in northern Nigeria remains far from being decisively won.

For travellers along northern highways, every journey carries the fear of abduction. For villagers in remote communities, every dawn brings uncertainty about what the next attack might bring. Children walk to school with silent prayers. Farmers work their land with fear in their hearts.

Yet the most haunting question remains unanswered: If Nigeria knows the terrorists and where they hide, why does the violence continue?

Until that question is confronted with transparency and decisive action, millions of Nigerians will continue to live under the shadow of insecurity.

Nigeria’s Terror Paradox: If Authorities Know the Criminals, Why Do Attacks Continue?

Vanguard