Business
Protect the poor from galloping inflation, World Bank advises Nigerian govt, others
… lowers Nigeria’s economic growth forecast
The World Bank has called on the Federal Government of Nigeria and other governments in the Sub-Saharan African region to urgently implement measures to restore macro-economic stability and protect the poor from the high inflation and current slow economic growth.
The World Bank has also lowered its economic growth forecast for Nigeria in 2023 to 3.2 per cent from 3.3 per cent due to the slowdown in global growth, the war in Ukraine and declining demand from China for commodities produced in Africa.
It projected that the Sub-Saharan African region would record a lower economic growth of 3.3 per cent in 2022 as against the 4.1 per cent recorded in 2021.
The forecasts were contained in the October edition of the World Bank’s Africa’s Pulse, a biannual analysis of the near-term regional macroeconomic outlook, and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).
Highlighting the growth factors for Nigeria’s economy, the World Bank said, “The Nigerian economy is projected to slow in 2023, down to 3.2 per cent (from 3.3 per cent) and persist at this level the following year. Growth will be supported mainly by the rebound in private consumption prompted mostly by accommodative monetary policy as inflationary pressures subside.
“Private consumption expenditure is forecast to decrease this year and grow next year. This performance will likely continue in 2024. On the production side, growth in 2023 will be supported by industry (with the growth of 5.1 per cent) with the mega-refinery project.”
On its growth forecast for the Sub-Saharan African region, the World Bank said: “Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is set to decelerate from 4.1% in 2021 to 3.3% in 2022, a downward revision of 0.3 percentage points since April’s Pulse forecast, mainly as a result of a slowdown in global growth, including flagging demand from China for commodities produced in Africa.
On the factors undermining economic growth in SSA, the World Bank said, “The war in Ukraine is exacerbating already high inflation and weighing on economic activity by depressing both business investments and household consumption. As of July 2022, 29 of 33 countries in SSA with available information had inflation rates over 5% while 17 countries had double-digit inflation.
“Elevated food prices are causing hardships with severe consequences in one of the world’s most food-insecure regions. Hunger has sharply increased in SSA in recent years driven by economic shocks, violence and conflict, and extreme weather. More than one in five people in Africa suffer from hunger and an estimated 140 million people faced acute food insecurity in 2022, up from 120 million people in 2021, according to the Global Report on Food Crises 2022 Mid-Year Update.
“The interconnected crises come at a time when the fiscal space required to mount effective government responses is all but gone. In many countries, public savings have been depleted by earlier programs to counter the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic, though resource-rich countries in some cases have benefited from high commodity prices and managed to improve their balance sheet.”
“Debt is projected to stay elevated at 58.6% of GDP in 2022 in SSA. African governments spent 16.5% of their revenues servicing external debt in 2021, up from less than 5% in 2010. Eight out of 38 IDA-eligible countries in the region are in debt distress, and 14 are at high risk of joining them. At the same time, high commercial borrowing costs make it difficult for countries to borrow on national and international markets while tightening global financial conditions are weakening currencies and increasing African countries’ external borrowing costs.”
Stressing the need for governments to improve the efficiency of existing resources and to optimize taxes in response to the above challenges, the World Bank added that, “In the agriculture and food sector, for example, governments have the opportunity to protect human capital and climate-proof food production by re-orienting their public spending away from poorly targeted subsidies toward nutrition-sensitive social protection programmes, irrigation works, and research and development are known to have high returns.”
Business
Tax Evasion: Lagos Government Sues Bi-Courtney, DAAR, 33 Others
Tax Evasion: Lagos Government Sues Bi-Courtney, DAAR, 33 Others
The Lagos State Government has initiated legal proceedings against 45 individuals and corporate entities over alleged unpaid taxes amounting to several billions of naira.
The cases have been filed before the state’s revenue court as part of intensified efforts to enforce compliance with tax regulations and improve internally generated revenue.
Prominent among those listed in the suits are Bi-Courtney Aviation Services, operators of the Murtala Muhammed Airport Terminal Two; DAAR Communications Plc, owners of Africa Independent Television; and Leaders & Company Limited, publishers of ThisDay newspaper.
Official figures indicate that Bi-Courtney Aviation Services allegedly owes N38.7 million, while DAAR Communications has an outstanding liability of N22.4 million. Leaders & Company Limited is also accused of defaulting on taxes to the tune of N67.1 million.
Other organisations identified as major defaulters include GMT Energy Resources Limited, with liabilities exceeding N145.8 million, and Sheriff Deputies Limited, which allegedly owes over N132.1 million.
The list further features companies such as Heyden Petroleum Limited, AA Rescue, and Primero Transport Services Limited, alongside several others with varying tax obligations.
Additional firms named in the court filings include IENG Nigeria Limited, James Fisher Nigeria Limited, V Care Diagnostics Limited, Venture Garden Nigeria Limited, Saro Africa International Limited, and Barry Callebaut Nigeria Limited.
Media and technology firms, including Native Media Limited, First Consulting Media & Centre Limited, and Eyowo Integrated Payments, were also listed as defendants.
The State Attorney-General and Commissioner for Justice, Lawal Pedro, disclosed that the decision to commence legal action followed repeated notices issued to the affected parties, which were ignored.
He noted that while individual tax liabilities range between N13.5 million and N35 million, corporate organisations account for the bulk of the outstanding sums.
Pedro explained that the state government resorted to litigation after the taxpayers failed to fulfil their statutory obligations or take advantage of opportunities provided to regularise their tax status.
He added that the enforcement initiative forms part of broader efforts to strengthen tax compliance and boost revenue required for infrastructure development and essential public services.
The Attorney-General further clarified that taxpayers who complied with pre-action notices and settled their outstanding liabilities would not be prosecuted.
He urged residents and business operators to adhere strictly to tax laws by filing annual returns and paying assessed taxes promptly, warning that continued default could attract penalties, interest, and further legal consequences.
Tax Evasion: Lagos Government Sues Bi-Courtney, DAAR, 33 Others
Business
US-Iran Conflict: MAN Outlines Urgent Steps to Shield Nigerian Manufacturers
US-Iran Conflict: MAN Outlines Urgent Steps to Shield Nigerian Manufacturers
The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) has raised alarm over the escalating US-Iran conflict impact on Nigerian manufacturers, warning that the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pose immediate, severe, and multi-layered risks to Nigeria’s industrial sector.
Director-General of MAN, Segun Ajayi-Kadir, said the sector is already feeling the effects of a global energy shock, noting that the industry’s projected 3.1% growth target for 2026 is now under serious threat.
He explained that manufacturers’ dependence on diesel and gas for production has left them highly vulnerable to rising global crude oil prices, which have pushed up domestic energy costs and significantly eroded profit margins.
“Energy cost escalation is biting hard. Many manufacturers are seeing their margins wiped out almost overnight,” Ajayi-Kadir said, highlighting the growing strain on operators.
The energy crisis in Nigeria’s manufacturing sector has been compounded by imported inflation, rising freight charges, and prolonged shipping delays. According to MAN, higher logistics and transportation costs are making the importation of critical raw materials increasingly expensive, thereby disrupting production cycles.
Ajayi-Kadir warned that the situation has created a double burden of rising production costs and weakening consumer demand, leaving many manufacturers with unsold inventories and shrinking revenues.
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“The implication is clear – production costs are rising sharply, while consumer purchasing power is weakening. Manufacturers are now battling both high costs and unsold inventories,” he said.
Beyond energy and logistics challenges, MAN noted that exchange rate volatility and limited access to foreign exchange have further complicated operations, making it difficult for manufacturers to source essential inputs.
To mitigate the crisis, MAN outlined several key measures to stabilise Nigeria’s manufacturing sector, urging the Federal Government to act swiftly.
The association called for the fast-tracking of the Presidential Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) initiative, which it believes will help industrial clusters reduce reliance on diesel and lower energy costs.
It also recommended the creation of a dedicated foreign exchange window by the Central Bank of Nigeria to ensure manufacturers have timely access to forex for importing raw materials and machinery.
In addition, MAN advocated for the domestication of petroleum supply chains, urging local refineries to prioritise supply to domestic manufacturers at competitive rates to cushion the impact of global oil price volatility.
To ease logistics pressures, the group proposed a six-month suspension of multiple taxation, haulage levies, and highway tolls, noting that transport-related costs have surged significantly.
“The current crisis is a stark reminder of Nigeria’s vulnerability to external shocks due to our dependence on imported inputs,” Ajayi-Kadir said, stressing the need for structural reforms.
He added that the situation presents an opportunity for Nigeria to pursue manufacturing self-sufficiency, reduce import dependence, and build a more resilient industrial base.
Industry analysts also warn that sectors such as chemicals, pharmaceuticals, food processing, and steel are particularly exposed due to their reliance on imported inputs and sensitivity to global price fluctuations.
MAN cautioned that failure to implement urgent interventions could lead to factory shutdowns, job losses, reduced industrial output, and a major setback to Nigeria’s industrialisation drive.
“We cannot control global geopolitics, but we can control our domestic response,” Ajayi-Kadir reiterated, urging policymakers to treat the situation as both a crisis and an opportunity to reposition Nigeria’s manufacturing sector for long-term sustainability.
US-Iran Conflict: MAN Outlines Urgent Steps to Shield Nigerian Manufacturers
Business
Cash vs Digital: Nigeria’s Cashless Dream Meets Street Reality
Cash vs Digital: Nigeria’s Cashless Dream Meets Street Reality
By Dr Ramanathan Murugesan, FCA, CPA
On a humid afternoon in Lagos, 24-year-old Adaeze sways inside a crowded danfo bus—one hand clinging to a metal rail, the other navigating her phone. Within seconds, she transfers her fare to the conductor. No notes. No coins. No delay.
A few kilometres away, at a roadside fruit stall, the future stalls.
A customer reaches for his phone. “Transfer?” he asks.
The vendor doesn’t hesitate. “No network. Bring cash.”
In that moment lies the paradox of modern Nigeria.
Digital payments are booming, yet cash refuses to fade. After more than a decade of policy reforms and fintech disruption, Africa’s largest economy is not cashless. It is something far more complex—a nation suspended between innovation and infrastructure, trust and uncertainty.
Policy spark, behaviour shift
Nigeria’s cashless journey began in 2012, when the Central Bank of Nigeria rolled out policies to curb cash usage and modernise payments.
On paper, the transformation is undeniable.
Data from the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System shows electronic transactions rising steadily year after year. The NIBSS Instant Payment platform has become the backbone of real-time transfers, powering everything from salary payments to street-level commerce.
Traditional banks—Access Bank, Guaranty Trust Bank (GTBank), Zenith Bank, and United Bank for Africa (UBA)—have reinvented themselves as digital-first institutions. Alongside them, fintech disruptors like Flutterwave, Paystack, Opay, and PalmPay have democratised payments, turning smartphones into wallets.
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In Nigeria’s cities, cash is no longer king—it is contested territory.
Fintech’s quiet revolution
If policy lit the spark, fintech fanned the flames.
For decades, millions of Nigerians existed outside the formal banking system. Fintech changed that—swiftly and at scale. With minimal paperwork and mobile-first platforms, financial services reached markets banks had long ignored.
Nowhere is this more visible than in the explosion of PoS agents. Across urban streets and rural corners alike, small kiosks double as micro-banks, handling deposits, withdrawals, and transfers.
For small businesses, this shift has been transformative. Digital payments reduce the risks of holding cash, expand customer options, and streamline operations.
Yet the revolution is uneven.
While Lagos and Abuja surge ahead, large parts of rural Nigeria remain on the margins—held back not by resistance, but by access.
Pandemic acceleration, structural exposure
Then came COVID-19—a crisis that doubled as a catalyst.
Lockdowns and health concerns pushed millions toward contactless payments. What began as necessity quickly hardened into habit, particularly among younger Nigerians.
E-commerce surged. Digital wallets swelled. Platforms like Flutterwave and Paystack recorded spikes in transaction volumes as businesses rushed online.
But beneath the growth lay fragility.
The system expanded faster than the infrastructure supporting it.
The naira redesign stress test
That fragility was laid bare during the 2022–2023 naira redesign.
As old notes were withdrawn and new ones rationed, Nigeria plunged into a cash crisis. ATMs ran empty. Banking halls overflowed. Frustration boiled over.
In desperation, millions turned to digital channels.
Transaction volumes surged—but so did failures.
Across banking apps and fintech platforms, transfers hung in limbo. Alerts delayed. Systems crashed under pressure. From GTBank to Opay, the message was the same: Nigeria’s digital rails were not yet built for shock.
The episode was more than a policy misstep—it was a stress test the system failed.
Infrastructure: The Achilles’ heel
At the heart of Nigeria’s cashless struggle lies a stubborn truth: infrastructure still lags ambition.
Unreliable electricity disrupts devices, servers, and networks. Patchy internet connectivity turns simple transfers into uncertain gambles. For millions, “transaction failed” is not an exception—it is routine.
For a roadside trader, a failed payment is not a technical glitch. It is lost income.
Cash, by contrast, is brutally simple. It works—every time.
Trust: The currency behind the currency
Beyond infrastructure lies an even more delicate issue: trust.
Digital systems promise speed, but not always certainty. Fraud, phishing, and account breaches continue to erode confidence. When transactions fail, reversals are often slow and opaque.
For many Nigerians—especially those outside the tech-savvy demographic—this uncertainty is costly.
Cash offers something digital still struggles to replicate: finality.
No pending alerts. No reversals. No doubt.
The informal economy’s quiet resistance
Any conversation about Nigeria’s payment future must confront its informal economy—vast, dynamic, and deeply cash-driven.
From open markets to roadside workshops, a significant share of economic activity operates beyond formal systems. Here, cash is not just convenient—it is strategic.
Digital payments leave trails. Cash offers discretion.
For many, the choice is not about technology, but about control.
Bringing this sector into the digital fold will require more than apps and policies. It will demand trust, incentives, and a system that works reliably at the last mile.
A nation split by access
Nigeria’s digital transition is also generational—and geographical.
Urban youth have embraced fintech with speed and ease. Smartphones, apps, and instant transfers are second nature.
But in rural communities and among older populations, adoption lags. Limited access to devices, connectivity, and digital literacy continues to widen the gap.
The result is not a unified shift, but a fragmented transition.
Cashless or cash-light?
So, has Nigeria gone cashless?
Not quite.
What has emerged instead is a “cash-light” economy—one where digital payments thrive, but cash remains indispensable.
Consumers toggle between both worlds. When networks are stable, digital wins. When systems falter, cash takes over.
This duality is not a failure. It is a reflection of reality.
The road ahead
Nigeria’s path to a truly cashless economy will not be decided by policy alone.
It will depend on power supply that does not fail, networks that do not drop, and systems that do not crash under pressure. It will require stronger consumer protection, faster dispute resolution, and deeper financial literacy.
Most importantly, it will demand trust—earned not through promises, but through performance.
An economy in motion
Nigeria is no longer where it was a decade ago. Digital payments have moved from the margins to the mainstream.
But cash remains embedded—resilient, reliable, and, for many, indispensable.
For now, the country exists between two financial realities—neither fully digital nor entirely cash-based.
It is an economy in motion, where the future of money is being shaped not just in boardrooms and policy circles, but in buses, markets, and roadside stalls.
And in Lagos, that future is decided every day—in a simple, familiar choice: Pay with a phone, or pay with cash.
Cash vs Digital: Nigeria’s Cashless Dream Meets Street Reality
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