Business
Tight monetary policy threatens FG’s N720bn borrowing plan
The Federal Government’s plan to borrow about N720 billion through FGN bond auctions in the third quarter, Q3’22, has come under fresh threat following increasing investors’ appetite for higher yields triggered by the adoption of tight monetary policy of the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN.
Recall that the CBN, in response to the five consecutive months rise in inflation rate to 18.6 per cent in June, launched a tight monetary policy regime May, 2022, raising the Monetary Policy Rate, MPR, first by 150 basis points to 13 per cent in May and again by 100 basis points to 14 per cent in July.
This development effectively spurred increases in money market yields while intensifying investors’ appetite for higher returns across all instruments in all segments of the market.
Consequently, the first under-subscription was recorded in FGN bond auction this year, as the auction held in July recorded 37 per cent under subscription and as a result, Debt Management Office, DMO could not achieve its sales target.
According to the FGN bond auction calendar for Q3’22 released by the Debt Management Office, DMO, the FG plans to raise between N630 billion and N720 billion during the quarter.
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The calendar shows that the FG, through the DMO, seeks to raise between N210 billion and N240 billion in each of the three months in the quarter, through subscription in three tranches of 10-year, 10-year, and 20-year original tenor respectively.
But the N225 billion FGN bond offered by the DMO at the July auction recorded 37 per cent under subscription as total subscription stood at N142 billion.
Though the 20-year bond, 13.00% FGN JAN 2042, recorded 40 over subscription, as subscription stood at for N104.92 as against N75 billion offered by the DMO, the 3-years 13.53% FGN MAR 2025 and 10-years 12.50% FGN APR 2032, recorded 84 per cent and 66 per cent under subscription respectively, as subscriptions stood at N11.75 billion and N25.62 billion respectively as against N75 billion offered for each bon tenor.
Consequently, the DMO could only achieve total sales of N123.9 billion, representing 45 per cent of its target for the month.
This was in spite of slight increases in the interest rates on the bonds offered by the DMO.
The auction results showed that the DMO raised the marginal rates for the 3-year, 10-year and 20-year bonds to 11.0 per cent from 10 per cent, 13.0 per cent from 12.5 per cent and 13.7 per cent from 13.2 per cent respectively in the June auction.
Analysts’ insight
Investment analysts however noted that for the DMO to attract investors to future auctions it would have to offer higher rates given the inflation rate of 18.6 per cent and MPR at 14 per cent.
While noting that in spite of the impact of scarcity of funds and increasing appetite triggered by the CBN’s tight monetary policy, on future bond auctions, they expect the DMO to meet its funding target of N3.53 trillion to finance the projected deficit of N7.35 trillion in the FGN’s 2022 budget.
Speaking in this regard, analysts at FBNQuest Securities, associated company in the First Bank Group, said: “The total amount raised by the DMO this year amounts to N1.7 trillion. If we include sales based on non-competitive allotment, the gross amount rises to N1.96 trillion. This excludes smaller sums raised via other instruments including Sukuk and the FGN savings bond.
“Despite the DMO’s disappointing outing, the sum raised so far by the agency suggests that it is broadly on track to raise its total domestic funding target of N3.5 trillion (including the additional borrowings of N965 billion following revisions to the budget).
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“However, the tight liquidity conditions in the market may continue to negatively affect demand at auctions in the near term.
“There are tougher credit conditions on the international market following monetary policy tightening by most central banks globally. This may force the FGN to turn to the domestic market to source some of the N2.6 trillion in external borrowing highlighted in the 2022 budget.
“The last resort would be for the fiscal deficit to become unfunded, or in other words, funded by ways and means advances from the CBN.
“Given the tight liquidity conditions in the market, we see yields inching up by around 25-50bps across the curve over the coming weeks.”
Similarly, analysts at United Capital Plc, associated company in the First Bank Group, said: “In line with our expectations of an uptick in the yield environment in the sovereign bonds market, marginal rates across all the tenors climbed 90bps, 50bps, and 60bps to print at 11.00%, 13.00% and 13.75%, respectively. Investors opted toward a more relaxed approach in the auction, demanding higher yields, as the expectation of inflation, interest rates, and political risks all begin to crystalise. These follow persistent inflation, monetary policy normalisation globally and the increased perception of political risk as we approach the electioneering season.
“We expect a continued uptick in marginal rates at subsequent bond auctions, as we believe investors will remain standoffish. The DMO will need to reel in higher rates to attract fund managers’ interests.
“Also, the recent hawkish stance adopted by the CBN, hiking rates by 250bps in total (100bps at July’s MPC meeting), will drive investor’s appetite for increased rates.
“Notwithstanding, we maintain the FG’s apparent need to rely on the domestic debt market to fund its fiscal imbalance, as external debt market conditions remain unfavourable. These factors will further impetus for shifting pricing power away from the FGN/DMO and into the hands of private sector asset managers.”
Business
Tax Evasion: Lagos Government Sues Bi-Courtney, DAAR, 33 Others
Tax Evasion: Lagos Government Sues Bi-Courtney, DAAR, 33 Others
The Lagos State Government has initiated legal proceedings against 45 individuals and corporate entities over alleged unpaid taxes amounting to several billions of naira.
The cases have been filed before the state’s revenue court as part of intensified efforts to enforce compliance with tax regulations and improve internally generated revenue.
Prominent among those listed in the suits are Bi-Courtney Aviation Services, operators of the Murtala Muhammed Airport Terminal Two; DAAR Communications Plc, owners of Africa Independent Television; and Leaders & Company Limited, publishers of ThisDay newspaper.
Official figures indicate that Bi-Courtney Aviation Services allegedly owes N38.7 million, while DAAR Communications has an outstanding liability of N22.4 million. Leaders & Company Limited is also accused of defaulting on taxes to the tune of N67.1 million.
Other organisations identified as major defaulters include GMT Energy Resources Limited, with liabilities exceeding N145.8 million, and Sheriff Deputies Limited, which allegedly owes over N132.1 million.
The list further features companies such as Heyden Petroleum Limited, AA Rescue, and Primero Transport Services Limited, alongside several others with varying tax obligations.
Additional firms named in the court filings include IENG Nigeria Limited, James Fisher Nigeria Limited, V Care Diagnostics Limited, Venture Garden Nigeria Limited, Saro Africa International Limited, and Barry Callebaut Nigeria Limited.
Media and technology firms, including Native Media Limited, First Consulting Media & Centre Limited, and Eyowo Integrated Payments, were also listed as defendants.
The State Attorney-General and Commissioner for Justice, Lawal Pedro, disclosed that the decision to commence legal action followed repeated notices issued to the affected parties, which were ignored.
He noted that while individual tax liabilities range between N13.5 million and N35 million, corporate organisations account for the bulk of the outstanding sums.
Pedro explained that the state government resorted to litigation after the taxpayers failed to fulfil their statutory obligations or take advantage of opportunities provided to regularise their tax status.
He added that the enforcement initiative forms part of broader efforts to strengthen tax compliance and boost revenue required for infrastructure development and essential public services.
The Attorney-General further clarified that taxpayers who complied with pre-action notices and settled their outstanding liabilities would not be prosecuted.
He urged residents and business operators to adhere strictly to tax laws by filing annual returns and paying assessed taxes promptly, warning that continued default could attract penalties, interest, and further legal consequences.
Tax Evasion: Lagos Government Sues Bi-Courtney, DAAR, 33 Others
Business
US-Iran Conflict: MAN Outlines Urgent Steps to Shield Nigerian Manufacturers
US-Iran Conflict: MAN Outlines Urgent Steps to Shield Nigerian Manufacturers
The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) has raised alarm over the escalating US-Iran conflict impact on Nigerian manufacturers, warning that the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pose immediate, severe, and multi-layered risks to Nigeria’s industrial sector.
Director-General of MAN, Segun Ajayi-Kadir, said the sector is already feeling the effects of a global energy shock, noting that the industry’s projected 3.1% growth target for 2026 is now under serious threat.
He explained that manufacturers’ dependence on diesel and gas for production has left them highly vulnerable to rising global crude oil prices, which have pushed up domestic energy costs and significantly eroded profit margins.
“Energy cost escalation is biting hard. Many manufacturers are seeing their margins wiped out almost overnight,” Ajayi-Kadir said, highlighting the growing strain on operators.
The energy crisis in Nigeria’s manufacturing sector has been compounded by imported inflation, rising freight charges, and prolonged shipping delays. According to MAN, higher logistics and transportation costs are making the importation of critical raw materials increasingly expensive, thereby disrupting production cycles.
Ajayi-Kadir warned that the situation has created a double burden of rising production costs and weakening consumer demand, leaving many manufacturers with unsold inventories and shrinking revenues.
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“The implication is clear – production costs are rising sharply, while consumer purchasing power is weakening. Manufacturers are now battling both high costs and unsold inventories,” he said.
Beyond energy and logistics challenges, MAN noted that exchange rate volatility and limited access to foreign exchange have further complicated operations, making it difficult for manufacturers to source essential inputs.
To mitigate the crisis, MAN outlined several key measures to stabilise Nigeria’s manufacturing sector, urging the Federal Government to act swiftly.
The association called for the fast-tracking of the Presidential Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) initiative, which it believes will help industrial clusters reduce reliance on diesel and lower energy costs.
It also recommended the creation of a dedicated foreign exchange window by the Central Bank of Nigeria to ensure manufacturers have timely access to forex for importing raw materials and machinery.
In addition, MAN advocated for the domestication of petroleum supply chains, urging local refineries to prioritise supply to domestic manufacturers at competitive rates to cushion the impact of global oil price volatility.
To ease logistics pressures, the group proposed a six-month suspension of multiple taxation, haulage levies, and highway tolls, noting that transport-related costs have surged significantly.
“The current crisis is a stark reminder of Nigeria’s vulnerability to external shocks due to our dependence on imported inputs,” Ajayi-Kadir said, stressing the need for structural reforms.
He added that the situation presents an opportunity for Nigeria to pursue manufacturing self-sufficiency, reduce import dependence, and build a more resilient industrial base.
Industry analysts also warn that sectors such as chemicals, pharmaceuticals, food processing, and steel are particularly exposed due to their reliance on imported inputs and sensitivity to global price fluctuations.
MAN cautioned that failure to implement urgent interventions could lead to factory shutdowns, job losses, reduced industrial output, and a major setback to Nigeria’s industrialisation drive.
“We cannot control global geopolitics, but we can control our domestic response,” Ajayi-Kadir reiterated, urging policymakers to treat the situation as both a crisis and an opportunity to reposition Nigeria’s manufacturing sector for long-term sustainability.
US-Iran Conflict: MAN Outlines Urgent Steps to Shield Nigerian Manufacturers
Business
Cash vs Digital: Nigeria’s Cashless Dream Meets Street Reality
Cash vs Digital: Nigeria’s Cashless Dream Meets Street Reality
By Dr Ramanathan Murugesan, FCA, CPA
On a humid afternoon in Lagos, 24-year-old Adaeze sways inside a crowded danfo bus—one hand clinging to a metal rail, the other navigating her phone. Within seconds, she transfers her fare to the conductor. No notes. No coins. No delay.
A few kilometres away, at a roadside fruit stall, the future stalls.
A customer reaches for his phone. “Transfer?” he asks.
The vendor doesn’t hesitate. “No network. Bring cash.”
In that moment lies the paradox of modern Nigeria.
Digital payments are booming, yet cash refuses to fade. After more than a decade of policy reforms and fintech disruption, Africa’s largest economy is not cashless. It is something far more complex—a nation suspended between innovation and infrastructure, trust and uncertainty.
Policy spark, behaviour shift
Nigeria’s cashless journey began in 2012, when the Central Bank of Nigeria rolled out policies to curb cash usage and modernise payments.
On paper, the transformation is undeniable.
Data from the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System shows electronic transactions rising steadily year after year. The NIBSS Instant Payment platform has become the backbone of real-time transfers, powering everything from salary payments to street-level commerce.
Traditional banks—Access Bank, Guaranty Trust Bank (GTBank), Zenith Bank, and United Bank for Africa (UBA)—have reinvented themselves as digital-first institutions. Alongside them, fintech disruptors like Flutterwave, Paystack, Opay, and PalmPay have democratised payments, turning smartphones into wallets.
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In Nigeria’s cities, cash is no longer king—it is contested territory.
Fintech’s quiet revolution
If policy lit the spark, fintech fanned the flames.
For decades, millions of Nigerians existed outside the formal banking system. Fintech changed that—swiftly and at scale. With minimal paperwork and mobile-first platforms, financial services reached markets banks had long ignored.
Nowhere is this more visible than in the explosion of PoS agents. Across urban streets and rural corners alike, small kiosks double as micro-banks, handling deposits, withdrawals, and transfers.
For small businesses, this shift has been transformative. Digital payments reduce the risks of holding cash, expand customer options, and streamline operations.
Yet the revolution is uneven.
While Lagos and Abuja surge ahead, large parts of rural Nigeria remain on the margins—held back not by resistance, but by access.
Pandemic acceleration, structural exposure
Then came COVID-19—a crisis that doubled as a catalyst.
Lockdowns and health concerns pushed millions toward contactless payments. What began as necessity quickly hardened into habit, particularly among younger Nigerians.
E-commerce surged. Digital wallets swelled. Platforms like Flutterwave and Paystack recorded spikes in transaction volumes as businesses rushed online.
But beneath the growth lay fragility.
The system expanded faster than the infrastructure supporting it.
The naira redesign stress test
That fragility was laid bare during the 2022–2023 naira redesign.
As old notes were withdrawn and new ones rationed, Nigeria plunged into a cash crisis. ATMs ran empty. Banking halls overflowed. Frustration boiled over.
In desperation, millions turned to digital channels.
Transaction volumes surged—but so did failures.
Across banking apps and fintech platforms, transfers hung in limbo. Alerts delayed. Systems crashed under pressure. From GTBank to Opay, the message was the same: Nigeria’s digital rails were not yet built for shock.
The episode was more than a policy misstep—it was a stress test the system failed.
Infrastructure: The Achilles’ heel
At the heart of Nigeria’s cashless struggle lies a stubborn truth: infrastructure still lags ambition.
Unreliable electricity disrupts devices, servers, and networks. Patchy internet connectivity turns simple transfers into uncertain gambles. For millions, “transaction failed” is not an exception—it is routine.
For a roadside trader, a failed payment is not a technical glitch. It is lost income.
Cash, by contrast, is brutally simple. It works—every time.
Trust: The currency behind the currency
Beyond infrastructure lies an even more delicate issue: trust.
Digital systems promise speed, but not always certainty. Fraud, phishing, and account breaches continue to erode confidence. When transactions fail, reversals are often slow and opaque.
For many Nigerians—especially those outside the tech-savvy demographic—this uncertainty is costly.
Cash offers something digital still struggles to replicate: finality.
No pending alerts. No reversals. No doubt.
The informal economy’s quiet resistance
Any conversation about Nigeria’s payment future must confront its informal economy—vast, dynamic, and deeply cash-driven.
From open markets to roadside workshops, a significant share of economic activity operates beyond formal systems. Here, cash is not just convenient—it is strategic.
Digital payments leave trails. Cash offers discretion.
For many, the choice is not about technology, but about control.
Bringing this sector into the digital fold will require more than apps and policies. It will demand trust, incentives, and a system that works reliably at the last mile.
A nation split by access
Nigeria’s digital transition is also generational—and geographical.
Urban youth have embraced fintech with speed and ease. Smartphones, apps, and instant transfers are second nature.
But in rural communities and among older populations, adoption lags. Limited access to devices, connectivity, and digital literacy continues to widen the gap.
The result is not a unified shift, but a fragmented transition.
Cashless or cash-light?
So, has Nigeria gone cashless?
Not quite.
What has emerged instead is a “cash-light” economy—one where digital payments thrive, but cash remains indispensable.
Consumers toggle between both worlds. When networks are stable, digital wins. When systems falter, cash takes over.
This duality is not a failure. It is a reflection of reality.
The road ahead
Nigeria’s path to a truly cashless economy will not be decided by policy alone.
It will depend on power supply that does not fail, networks that do not drop, and systems that do not crash under pressure. It will require stronger consumer protection, faster dispute resolution, and deeper financial literacy.
Most importantly, it will demand trust—earned not through promises, but through performance.
An economy in motion
Nigeria is no longer where it was a decade ago. Digital payments have moved from the margins to the mainstream.
But cash remains embedded—resilient, reliable, and, for many, indispensable.
For now, the country exists between two financial realities—neither fully digital nor entirely cash-based.
It is an economy in motion, where the future of money is being shaped not just in boardrooms and policy circles, but in buses, markets, and roadside stalls.
And in Lagos, that future is decided every day—in a simple, familiar choice: Pay with a phone, or pay with cash.
Cash vs Digital: Nigeria’s Cashless Dream Meets Street Reality
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