Rising Debt, Oil Shock Could Trigger Global Slowdown, IMF Warns

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that rising global debt, persistent oil price shocks, and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could significantly weaken the world economy, with total public debt projected to reach 100 per cent of global GDP by 2029.

The warning was contained in the IMF’s latest Fiscal Monitor report, which highlighted growing fiscal vulnerabilities across both advanced and developing economies as high interest rates, weak revenue growth, and rising borrowing costs continue to strain government budgets worldwide.

The Fund said the combination of energy price volatility, increasing debt servicing costs, and geopolitical instability is placing governments under mounting pressure, especially in emerging and developing economies that rely heavily on imported energy.

The IMF projected that global public debt rose to 93.9 per cent of GDP in 2025, up from 92 per cent in 2024, and is expected to rise further to 100 per cent by 2029, marking the highest level since the aftermath of World War II. It further warned that debt could continue increasing beyond that level, potentially reaching 102.3 per cent of GDP by 2031 if current trends persist.

According to the report, rising debt levels are being driven by structural spending pressures such as ageing populations, climate-related investments, higher defence and security spending, and increasing interest payments. Interest costs alone now account for nearly 3 per cent of global GDP, compared to about 2 per cent four years ago, significantly reducing fiscal flexibility for many governments.

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The IMF also cautioned that prolonged disruptions in global oil supply, driven by escalating Middle East tensions, could push crude oil prices above $100 per barrel through 2027, increasing the risk of a global economic slowdown or recession. Energy market instability, the Fund noted, remains one of the fastest channels through which geopolitical shocks impact inflation, trade, and household living costs.

The report also warned governments against introducing broad-based fuel subsidies in response to rising energy prices. Director of the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department, Rodrigo Valdés, said such policies distort market signals and could worsen global energy imbalances.

Instead, he recommended targeted cash transfers to vulnerable households, arguing that energy prices must reflect real supply conditions to allow for proper market adjustment.

Valdés stressed that while governments face political pressure to shield citizens from rising fuel costs, suppressing prices could delay necessary demand adjustments and worsen long-term instability in energy markets.

The IMF further highlighted emerging risks in global debt markets, including the growing influence of non-traditional investors such as hedge funds, which may be less stable during periods of financial stress. It also pointed to declining debt maturities, which increase countries’ vulnerability to short-term interest rate fluctuations and refinancing risks.

Additional fiscal pressures identified in the report include rising security expenditures, climate change adaptation costs, and increased debt servicing obligations, all of which are limiting governments’ ability to build fiscal buffers.

The Fund also warned that global trade fragmentation, political instability, and potential market corrections in fast-growing sectors such as artificial intelligence could further tighten global financial conditions and slow economic growth.

Despite these risks, the IMF stressed that the world is not yet in a full-blown debt crisis. However, it warned that delays in implementing fiscal reforms could lead to more severe economic corrections in the future.

“We’re not at a crisis point, but the more countries delay adjustment measures, the steeper the eventual correction,” Valdés said.

The IMF urged governments to begin implementing credible medium-term fiscal consolidation plans, improve revenue mobilisation, and ensure more efficient public spending once immediate economic pressures ease, stressing that restoring fiscal buffers is essential for long-term stability.

Rising Debt, Oil Shock Could Trigger Global Slowdown, IMF Warns

Over 250 Feared Dead as Migrant Boat Capsizes En Route to Malaysia

More than 250 migrants, including Rohingya refugees and Bangladeshi nationals, are feared dead after a crowded boat capsized in the Andaman Sea, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees and the International Organization for Migration.

The vessel, described as a wooden trawler, reportedly departed from Bangladesh en route to Malaysia before it sank last week due to heavy winds, rough seas, and overcrowding, highlighting the dangers associated with irregular migration routes in Southeast Asia.

The exact time of the incident remains unclear, but on April 9, a Bangladesh-flagged vessel rescued nine survivors who had been “clinging to drums and wooden debris” to stay afloat. According to coast guard officials, the migrants had left Bangladesh on April 4 “in search of a better life” before their boat was caught in a storm around April 7 or 8.

Survivors were later picked up in the early hours of April 11 by the motor tanker Meghna Pride, which was travelling towards Indonesia. They were subsequently handed over to Bangladeshi authorities after being transferred to a coast guard vessel.

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One of the survivors, Rafiqul Islam, said he spent about 36 hours drifting at sea, recounting the harrowing ordeal and the desperation that pushed him to embark on the journey in search of economic opportunities in Malaysia.

Reports indicate that survivors saw dozens of people struggling in the water, but authorities say the exact number of passengers remains unknown, with no confirmed trace of the missing victims or the wreckage so far.

The tragedy is closely tied to the ongoing Rohingya crisis, which has forced hundreds of thousands to flee Myanmar since a military crackdown in 2017. Denied citizenship and facing systemic persecution, many Rohingya have taken refuge in overcrowded camps in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh, where poor living conditions and limited humanitarian support continue to drive risky migration attempts.

Malaysia remains a preferred destination due to perceived economic opportunities and cultural ties, but the journey is often deadly. Boats used for such trips are typically overcrowded, unsafe, and lack basic necessities, leading to frequent maritime disasters.

In a joint statement, the UN agencies warned that the incident underscores the consequences of protracted displacement, worsening humanitarian conditions, and lack of durable solutions for refugees.

They also noted that ongoing violence in Myanmar’s Rakhine State has diminished hopes of safe return, forcing many to risk their lives at sea.

The agencies called on the international community to increase support for refugees and address the root causes of displacement, stressing the need for safe, voluntary, and dignified return pathways for the Rohingya.

The latest disaster adds to a growing list of deadly migrant boat tragedies in the region, raising fresh concerns about human trafficking networks, border policies, and humanitarian response gaps across Southeast Asia.

Over 250 Feared Dead as Migrant Boat Capsizes En Route to Malaysia

World Leaders Gather in Paris Over Strait of Hormuz Crisis

Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron will this Friday co-host an emergency international summit in Paris aimed at securing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, following escalating tensions that have disrupted one of the world’s most critical energy corridors.

The announcement by Downing Street comes amid growing global concern over the closure of the narrow maritime passage, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea and serves as a vital route for nearly a fifth of the world’s oil supply.

Rising Tensions and Global Impact

The crisis surrounding the Strait of Hormuz has intensified in recent days, with heightened military posturing and reported threats to commercial shipping raising fears of a broader regional conflict. Although officials have yet to publicly confirm the precise trigger for the disruption, analysts point to ongoing geopolitical friction involving Iran and Western allies.

Energy markets have already begun reacting, with oil prices experiencing volatility amid fears of prolonged supply disruptions. Industry experts warn that any sustained blockage could trigger inflationary pressures globally, affecting fuel prices, manufacturing, and food supply chains.

Focus of the Paris Summit

Diplomatic sources indicate that the Paris summit will bring together leaders from Europe, the Middle East, and key global stakeholders, including representatives from maritime security alliances.

Top on the agenda will be:

• Immediate de-escalation of tensions in the Gulf
• Coordinated naval security to protect commercial vessels
• Diplomatic engagement with regional actors
• Frameworks to guarantee long-term stability in the waterway

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A joint UK-French statement emphasized the urgency of collective action, noting that “freedom of navigation is essential to global economic stability.”

Strategic Importance of the Strait

The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most geopolitically sensitive chokepoints in the world. At its narrowest, it is just about 33 kilometers wide, yet it handles massive daily shipments of crude oil and liquefied natural gas from major producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates.

Any disruption to this route not only threatens energy security but also risks drawing in global powers with strategic interests in the region.

International Reactions

Several governments have expressed support for the initiative by Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron, describing the summit as a critical step toward preventing further escalation.

The United Nations has also called for restraint and dialogue, urging all parties to prioritize diplomatic solutions over confrontation.

Outlook

While expectations remain cautious, diplomats say the summit could serve as a turning point in easing tensions and restoring safe passage through the Strait. However, much will depend on the willingness of key regional actors to engage constructively.

With global markets on edge and geopolitical risks mounting, Friday’s meeting in Paris is being closely watched as a test of international cooperation in the face of a rapidly evolving crisis.

World Leaders Gather in Paris Over Strait of Hormuz Crisis