International
What have been Russia’s military mistakes?
Russia has one of the largest and most powerful armed forces in the world, but that has not been apparent in its initial invasion of Ukraine. Many military analysts in the West have been surprised by its performance on the battlefield so far, with one describing it as “dismal”.
Its military advances appear to have largely stalled and some now question whether it can recover from the losses it has suffered. This week, a senior Nato military official told the BBC, “the Russians clearly have not achieved their goals and probably will not at the end of the day”. So what has gone wrong? I have spoken to senior Western military officers and intelligence officials, about the mistakes Russia has made.
Misguided assumptions
Russia’s first mistake was to underestimate the strength of resistance and the capabilities of Ukraine’s own smaller armed forces. Russia has an annual defence budget of more than $60bn, compared with Ukraine’s spending of just over $4bn.
At the same time, Russia, and many others, appear to have overestimated its own military strengths. President Putin had embarked on an ambitious modernisation programme for his military and he too may have believed his own hype.
A senior British military official said much of Russia’s investment had been spent on its vast nuclear arsenal and experimentation, that included developing new weapons such as hypersonic missiles. Russia is supposed to have built the world’s most advanced tank – the T-14 Armata. But while it has been seen on Moscow’s Victory Day Parade on Red Square, it has been missing in battle. Most of what Russia has fielded are older T-72 tanks, armoured personnel carriers, artillery and rocket launchers.
At the start of the invasion Russia had a clear advantage in the air, with the combat aircraft it had moved near the border outnumbering Ukraine’s air force by more than three to one. Most military analysts assumed the invading force would quickly gain superiority in the air, but it has not. Ukraine’s air defences are still proving effective, limiting Russia’s ability to manoeuvre.
Moscow may have also assumed its special forces would play an important role, helping deliver a quick, decisive blow.
A senior Western intelligence official told the BBC that Russia thought it could deploy lighter, spearhead units like the Spetsnatz and VDV paratroopers, “to eliminate a small number of defenders and that would be it”. But in the first few days their helicopter assault on Hostomel Airport, just outside Kyiv, was repelled, denying Russia an airbridge to bring in troops, equipment and supplies.
Instead, Russia has had to transport its supplies mostly by road. This has created traffic jams and choke points which are easy targets for Ukrainian forces to ambush. Some heavy armour has gone off road, only to get stuck in mud, reinforcing an image of an army that has become “bogged down”.
Meanwhile, Russia’s long armoured column from the north that was captured by satellites has still failed to encircle Kyiv. The most significant advances have come from the south, where it has been able to use rail lines to resupply its forces. The UK Defence Secretary, Ben Wallace, told the BBC that President Putin’s forces “have lost the momentum”.
“They’re stuck and they are slowly but surely taking significant casualties.”
Losses and low morale
Russia had amassed a force of around 190,000 troops for this invasion and most of those have already been committed to the battle. But they have already lost about 10% of that force. There are no reliable figures for the scale of either Russian or Ukrainian losses. Ukraine claims to have killed 14,000 Russian troops, though the US estimates it is probably half that number.
Western officials say there is also evidence of dwindling morale among Russian fighters, with one saying it was “very, very, low”. Another said the troops were “cold, tired and hungry” as they had already been waiting in the snow for weeks in Belarus and Russia before they were given the order to invade.
Russia has already been forced to look for more troops to make up for its losses, including moving in reserve units from as far afield as the east of the country and Armenia. Western officials believe it is also “highly likely” that foreign troops from Syria will soon join the fight, along with mercenaries from its secretive Wagner group. A senior Nato military official said this was a sign it was “scratching the bottom of the barrel”.
Supplies and logistics
Russia has struggled with the basics. There is an old military saying that amateurs talk tactics while professionals study logistics. There is evidence that Russia has not given it enough consideration. Armoured columns have run out of fuel, food and ammunition. Vehicles have broken down and been left abandoned, then towed away by Ukrainian tractors.
Western officials also believe Russia may be running low on some munitions. It has already fired between 850 and 900 long-range precision munitions, including cruise missiles, which are harder to replace than unguided weapons. US officials have warned Russia has approached China to help address some of its shortages.
In contrast, there has been a steady flow of Western-supplied weapons going into Ukraine, which has been a boost for its morale. The US has just announced it will be providing an additional $800m in defence support. As well as more anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, it is expected to include Switchblade, which is a small, US-developed, “kamikaze” drone that can be carried in a backpack before being launched to deliver a small explosive at targets on the ground.
Western officials still warn that President Putin could “double down with greater brutality”. They say he still has enough firepower to bombard Ukrainian cities for a “considerable period of time”.
Despite the setbacks, one intelligence official said President Putin was, “unlikely to be deterred and may instead escalate. He likely remains confident that Russia can militarily defeat Ukraine”. And while the Ukrainian forces have shown fierce resistance, that same official warned that without significant resupplies they too could “eventually be spent in terms of ammunition and numbers”. The odds may be better than when the war first started, but they still seem stacked against Ukraine.
BBC
International
Ukraine receives bodies of 140 fallen soldiers from Russia
Ukraine receives bodies of 140 fallen soldiers from Russia
Ukraine has received the bodies of 140 soldiers killed while trying to defend the regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhya and Kherson from Russian attacks.
The authority responsible for prisoner-of-war matters said on Telegram on Friday that five bodies were from the Sumy section in northern Ukraine.
Russia has no Ukrainian territories under its control in this area; however, at the beginning of March, units of allegedly Russian volunteers fighting on the side of Ukraine made advances from the Sumy region into Russian territory.
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Once the identities of the dead have been established, they will be handed over to their relatives, the authority said.
The authority, known as the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War, thanked the International Committee of the Red Cross for arranging the return.
Ukraine has been fending off a Russian invasion for over two years.
Despite the ongoing fighting, both sides regularly exchange the bodies of fallen soldiers and prisoners of war.
It is not yet known whether and how many dead soldiers Russia has received in return.
Ukraine receives bodies of 140 fallen soldiers from Russia
International
Weeks after Iran’s attack, Israel discovers another massive surface-to-surface missile
Weeks after Iran’s attack, Israel discovers another massive surface-to-surface missile
Weeks after missiles sent by Iran on April 14 rocked several parts of Israel, another debris of a surface-to-surface missile has been found in the southern part of the country.
According to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), the debris that was found by hikers in southern Israel, has been successfully evacuated.
“The effects of Iran’s attack on Israel can still be seen weeks after it occurred.
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“Earlier today, our troops removed the debris of a surface-to-surface missile intercepted during the Iranian attack. At the beginning of the week, the debris was found by hikers in southern Israel.
A complex removal, the process was made possible through advanced preparation by the Home Front Command and assistance from the IAF. During the process, the missile debris was cleared of hazardous materials, ” the IDF said in a post on Friday.
This is not the first missile discovered in the south since the attack. Similar missiles were discovered nearby in the Dead Sea area immediately after the major attack that Tehran launched against Israel, which included more than 300 suicide drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles.
Weeks after Iran’s attack, Israel discovers another massive surface-to-surface missile
International
Nigerian man kills wife months after relocating to UK
Olubunmi Abodunde, a Nigerian living in the United Kingdom, reportedly beat his wife, Taiwo, to death with their son’s skateboard, according to the Daily Mail.
The couple, who had three children, arrived in the UK from Nigeria in 2022 and frequently feuded over reported relationships and financial disagreements.
According to the news outlet, 48-year-old Abodunde had been investigated by Suffolk Police several times for domestic abuse and was scheduled to stand trial for murder, but changed his plea to guilty on Wednesday after the jury was sworn in.
During the abuse, officers heard ‘a number of fringes’ inside the house, which Abodunde had entered despite bail restrictions imposed the day before that barred him from the residence due to another violent incident.
When they arrived 25 minutes later, they discovered Taiwo, 41, with her’skull bashed in’.
However, Judge Martyn Levett, sitting at Ipswich Crown Court, cautioned him that the only conceivable penalty was life imprisonment.
Suffolk Constabulary submitted itself to the Independent Office of Police Conduct, which confirmed that three officers were being investigated.
An IOPC spokesman said, “We advised two Suffolk officers that they are under investigation for potential breaches of the police standards of professional behaviour at the level of gross misconduct.
“We advised another officer that they are under investigation at the level of misconduct.”
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Abodunde has a history of mistrust and distrust towards his wife, accusing her of having affairs. He had been probed by police several times for alleged domestic abuse episodes prior to his wife’s murder.
He was detained on April 27 of last year, when police came to the couple’s house in Newmarket, Suffolk, and discovered Mrs. Abodunde with a split lip.
Later that day, he was released on police bail with the condition that he stay away from the marital residence and avoid approaching his wife.
However, after completing a night shift at Tesco, he returned home shortly after 9 a.m. to reportedly pick up his mobile phone.
At 9.20 a.m., two cops arrived to take Mrs. Abodunde’s testimony regarding the previous night’s incident, and they heard persistent banging inside.
But it wasn’t until 9.55 a.m. that they pushed their way in with permission from senior officers and discovered Mrs. Abodunde ‘clearly dead’ near the front entrance.
A post-mortem examination revealed that she had been throttled until unconscious, then stamped on until her ribs were fractured, before her husband used the skateboard to kill her off. The hits were so hard that the skateboard was ruined.
Prosecutor Simon Spence KC told the court that the hammering officers heard was most likely caused by Abodunde continuing to assault his wife after she was unconscious or dead.
Mrs. Abodunde worked as a care home assistant in Cambridge, but her husband, a civil engineer by training, was unable to find work and took shifts at Tesco and Wickes.
Following his arrest for the murder, Abodunde was taken to the hospital “because he appeared to have some sort of mental episode.”.
He later argued in a police statement that he had acted in self-defence, saying, “My wife has subjected me to physical abuse for a number of years.
“On November 28, we got into an argument. She ran at me with a knife. I grabbed the knife and cut my hand. I was defending myself.”
However, the court heard that, while he had a hand injury, no knife was found near his wife’s body.
Nneka Akudolu KC, defending, said the amount of violence was ‘completely out of character’ for her client and could have been influenced by the medicine he was on. However, she stated that no medical evidence would be supplied to back her assertion.
Following the court, Suffolk Police Detective Inspector Dan Connick stated, “This was an awful attack on a woman that has had a long-term impact on the community and, most importantly, on the victim’s family.”
“We are pleased that Taiwo’s family will no longer have to go through the pain of a trial.
“Our thoughts remain with Taiwo’s family and friends, and we hope this result will bring some small comfort to them.”
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