What have been Russia's military mistakes? - Newstrends
Connect with us

International

What have been Russia’s military mistakes?

Published

5 years ago

on

Russia has one of the largest and most powerful armed forces in the world, but that has not been apparent in its initial invasion of Ukraine. Many military analysts in the West have been surprised by its performance on the battlefield so far, with one describing it as “dismal”.

Its military advances appear to have largely stalled and some now question whether it can recover from the losses it has suffered. This week, a senior Nato military official told the BBC, “the Russians clearly have not achieved their goals and probably will not at the end of the day”. So what has gone wrong? I have spoken to senior Western military officers and intelligence officials, about the mistakes Russia has made.

Misguided assumptions

Russia’s first mistake was to underestimate the strength of resistance and the capabilities of Ukraine’s own smaller armed forces. Russia has an annual defence budget of more than $60bn, compared with Ukraine’s spending of just over $4bn.

At the same time, Russia, and many others, appear to have overestimated its own military strengths. President Putin had embarked on an ambitious modernisation programme for his military and he too may have believed his own hype.

A senior British military official said much of Russia’s investment had been spent on its vast nuclear arsenal and experimentation, that included developing new weapons such as hypersonic missiles. Russia is supposed to have built the world’s most advanced tank – the T-14 Armata. But while it has been seen on Moscow’s Victory Day Parade on Red Square, it has been missing in battle. Most of what Russia has fielded are older T-72 tanks, armoured personnel carriers, artillery and rocket launchers.

At the start of the invasion Russia had a clear advantage in the air, with the combat aircraft it had moved near the border outnumbering Ukraine’s air force by more than three to one. Most military analysts assumed the invading force would quickly gain superiority in the air, but it has not. Ukraine’s air defences are still proving effective, limiting Russia’s ability to manoeuvre.

Moscow may have also assumed its special forces would play an important role, helping deliver a quick, decisive blow.

A senior Western intelligence official told the BBC that Russia thought it could deploy lighter, spearhead units like the Spetsnatz and VDV paratroopers, “to eliminate a small number of defenders and that would be it”. But in the first few days their helicopter assault on Hostomel Airport, just outside Kyiv, was repelled, denying Russia an airbridge to bring in troops, equipment and supplies.

Instead, Russia has had to transport its supplies mostly by road. This has created traffic jams and choke points which are easy targets for Ukrainian forces to ambush. Some heavy armour has gone off road, only to get stuck in mud, reinforcing an image of an army that has become “bogged down”.

Meanwhile, Russia’s long armoured column from the north that was captured by satellites has still failed to encircle Kyiv. The most significant advances have come from the south, where it has been able to use rail lines to resupply its forces. The UK Defence Secretary, Ben Wallace, told the BBC that President Putin’s forces “have lost the momentum”.

“They’re stuck and they are slowly but surely taking significant casualties.”

Losses and low morale

Russia had amassed a force of around 190,000 troops for this invasion and most of those have already been committed to the battle. But they have already lost about 10% of that force. There are no reliable figures for the scale of either Russian or Ukrainian losses. Ukraine claims to have killed 14,000 Russian troops, though the US estimates it is probably half that number.

Western officials say there is also evidence of dwindling morale among Russian fighters, with one saying it was “very, very, low”. Another said the troops were “cold, tired and hungry” as they had already been waiting in the snow for weeks in Belarus and Russia before they were given the order to invade.

Russia has already been forced to look for more troops to make up for its losses, including moving in reserve units from as far afield as the east of the country and Armenia. Western officials believe it is also “highly likely” that foreign troops from Syria will soon join the fight, along with mercenaries from its secretive Wagner group. A senior Nato military official said this was a sign it was “scratching the bottom of the barrel”.

Supplies and logistics

Russia has struggled with the basics. There is an old military saying that amateurs talk tactics while professionals study logistics. There is evidence that Russia has not given it enough consideration. Armoured columns have run out of fuel, food and ammunition. Vehicles have broken down and been left abandoned, then towed away by Ukrainian tractors.

Western officials also believe Russia may be running low on some munitions. It has already fired between 850 and 900 long-range precision munitions, including cruise missiles, which are harder to replace than unguided weapons. US officials have warned Russia has approached China to help address some of its shortages.

In contrast, there has been a steady flow of Western-supplied weapons going into Ukraine, which has been a boost for its morale. The US has just announced it will be providing an additional $800m in defence support. As well as more anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, it is expected to include Switchblade, which is a small, US-developed, “kamikaze” drone that can be carried in a backpack before being launched to deliver a small explosive at targets on the ground.

Western officials still warn that President Putin could “double down with greater brutality”. They say he still has enough firepower to bombard Ukrainian cities for a “considerable period of time”.

Despite the setbacks, one intelligence official said President Putin was, “unlikely to be deterred and may instead escalate. He likely remains confident that Russia can militarily defeat Ukraine”. And while the Ukrainian forces have shown fierce resistance, that same official warned that without significant resupplies they too could “eventually be spent in terms of ammunition and numbers”. The odds may be better than when the war first started, but they still seem stacked against Ukraine.

BBC

Loading

Related Topics:
Advertisement

Health

Fiji Declares National HIV Emergency as Diagnoses Surge Sixteenfold

Published

5 hours ago

on

September 17, 2026

By

Fiji Declares National HIV Emergency as Diagnoses Surge Sixteenfold

Authorities launch a multi-agency public health campaign to expand free testing, treatment, and harm-reduction services

Fiji has announced a nationwide health response to address a significant rise in HIV cases and ensure that all residents can access essential medical care.

On Wednesday, Health Minister Dr. Atonio Lalabalavu shared the emergency declaration, explaining that national agencies are joining forces to provide rapid medical support, expand testing, and protect community well-being across the islands.

Official reports indicate that about one in every 60 adults in Fiji currently lives with HIV, following an increase in new infections over recent years. Health specialists explain that the virus spreads primarily through intimate sexual contact and shared needles among individuals using illicit substances.

Additionally, routine screenings revealed that two out of every 100 expecting mothers carry the virus, highlighting an urgent need for early maternal healthcare to protect newborns from infection.

To safeguard public health, authorities are delivering free daily treatments, distributing protective preventive medications, and setting up clean needle programs to stop infections before they start.

Furthermore, global partners, including Australia, New Zealand, India, and United Nations health bodies are providing financial resources and medical supplies to back the local effort.

By encouraging open community conversations and delivering accessible healthcare without judgment, health workers aim to ensure that everyone receives the care and dignity they deserve.

Fiji Declares National HIV Emergency as Diagnoses Surge Sixteenfold

Loading

Continue Reading

International

Kim Yo-jong: Only ‘Idiots’ Think North Korea Will Give Up Nuclear Weapons

Published

5 hours ago

on

September 17, 2026

By

Kim Yo-jong: Only 'Idiots' Think North Korea Will Give Up Nuclear Weapons

Kim Yo-jong: Only ‘Idiots’ Think North Korea Will Give Up Nuclear Weapons

Kim Yo-jong, the powerful sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, has declared that her country’s status as a nuclear weapons state is “absolute” and can never be reversed — dismissing international hopes for denuclearisation as the delusions of “idiots.”

In a statement carried by the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on Thursday, Kim rejected the recent International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) General Conference’s demand for North Korea’s “complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearisation” (CVID) as “familiar nonsense” . “The DPRK’s position as a nuclear weapons state is absolute, which cannot be reversed by anything,” she said, using the acronym for the country’s official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea .

Kim, who serves as Director of the General Affairs Department of the Workers’ Party of Korea, compared the international community’s repeated calls for denuclearisation to “noise that is neither surprising nor new, heard constantly around this time every year like a sound ringing day and night from an answering machine” . She went on to assert that no amount of diplomatic pressure could alter Pyongyang’s position. “No matter how desperately the IAEA and the West may hold periodic meetings and talk about denuclearisation according to the fixed scenario, they can have no effect on the will and ability of the DPRK to take all necessary measures to defend the supreme interests of the state” . She added: “Those humans sitting together and chattering to try and change our state’s current status must clearly realise what a pathetic delusion and futile waste of effort it is” .

Kim’s statement came during the 70th IAEA General Conference in Vienna, where South Korea and European nations urged North Korea to fulfil its international obligations and abandon its nuclear programme . A South Korean Unification Ministry official said the ministry was “taking note” of Kim’s remarks, assessing them as an attempt to make clear to Washington that denuclearisation is off the table for any potential summit . The timing is particularly noteworthy given recent signals from US President Donald Trump about resuming dialogue with Kim Jong Un. In August 2026, Trump told reporters he expected to meet the North Korean leader later in the year, saying: “Yeah, I will be. I get along with him very well” . Trump also stated that Pyongyang possesses 57 “very powerful” nuclear weapons, marking the first time he had publicly cited a specific figure for North Korea’s arsenal .

READ ALSO:

The disclosure sparked a rare public discussion of intelligence assessments. South Korean Defence Minister Ahn Gyu-back told lawmakers that Seoul typically estimates North Korea has 80 to 120 nuclear weapons — a figure higher than Trump’s claim . Ahn noted that the estimates held by South Korea and the United States “appear to be slightly different,” though he later clarified that he was citing a private research institute’s assessment rather than an official military figure . Both Seoul and Washington have maintained they do not recognise North Korea as a nuclear-armed state. “We can never officially acknowledge that,” Ahn said when asked whether Seoul accepts Pyongyang’s nuclear possession . Independent estimates vary. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has estimated that North Korea possessed approximately 60 nuclear warheads as of January 2026, with sufficient fissile material for roughly 30 more .

Ahead of the General Conference, the IAEA released its annual report detailing North Korea’s expanding nuclear capabilities. The agency observed that a new uranium enrichment facility at Yongbyon — identified as the site’s second enrichment facility — could accommodate up to 28 centrifuge cascades, the largest scale among North Korea’s known enrichment sites . The IAEA identified the facility by comparing satellite imagery with photographs of Kim Jong Un’s June 2026 visit to a “newly inaugurated nuclear materials production factory,” which state media reported at the time. The photographs indicated gas centrifuge cascades installed on both the upper and lower floors of the two-storey building . The report also noted indications that operations began in January 2026 at a uranium enrichment facility in Kangson, near Pyongyang, within an annex constructed in 2024 . IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi said the developments were a “cause for serious concern,” adding: “The continuation and further development of the DPRK’s nuclear programme are clear violations of relevant UN Security Council resolutions and are deeply regrettable” . The European Union, in a statement to the IAEA Board of Governors, condemned North Korea’s “unlawful and destabilising actions” and urged it to abandon all nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programmes in a “complete, verifiable and irreversible manner” .

Kim’s remarks are consistent with North Korea’s long-standing position. Pyongyang has legally enshrined its status as a nuclear weapons state, declaring its arsenal permanent and irreversible. The country has repeatedly rejected denuclearisation as a precondition for dialogue . North Korea’s mission to the United Nations in Vienna said last September that the country’s status as a nuclear weapons state had become irreversible and the IAEA had “no legal right … to interfere in the internal affairs of a nuclear weapons state which exists outside the NPT” . Analysts note that North Korea has set high barriers for any renewed summit with Washington, including major changes to US policy and acceptance of its nuclear status — conditions the Trump administration has shown no sign of meeting . The US State Department has maintained that Washington “remains committed to the complete denuclearisation of North Korea” . For now, Kim’s message was unambiguous: “No one and nothing can ever reverse the crucial changes in the strength and position of the DPRK and prevent them in the future, too” .

Kim Yo-jong: Only ‘Idiots’ Think North Korea Will Give Up Nuclear Weapons

Loading

Continue Reading

International

Gaza Building Collapse Kills 21, Including Eight Children

Published

7 hours ago

on

September 17, 2026

By

Gaza Building Collapse Kills 21, Including Eight Children

Gaza Building Collapse Kills 21, Including Eight Children

At least 21 people have been killed, including eight children, after a war-damaged building collapsed in Gaza City overnight, rescuers and medics say. The tragedy has renewed concerns about the collapse risk facing hundreds of bomb-damaged structures across the Gaza Strip as winter approaches.

The six-storey residential building in Gaza City’s Tal al-Hawa area collapsed in the early hours of Wednesday. According to the United Nations humanitarian coordinator for the occupied Palestinian territories, Ramiz Alakbarov, an estimated 100 people, including 50 children, were living in the building when it came down. The Gaza Civil Defence agency confirmed that rescuers extracted 21 bodies and rescued 20 unharmed individuals from the rubble on al-Sinaa Street in Tal al-Hawa. Dozens remain missing or injured underneath the debris.

Witnesses told the BBC that the building had been left tilting dangerously to one side after an Israeli strike more than a year ago. Displaced families had moved inside because they were desperate, with nowhere else to go. The building had been hit multiple times in 2024 and March 2025, leading to warnings for Gazans not to return, according to Civil Defence spokesman Mahmoud Basal. More than 10 families, totalling around 80 people, lived in the building, according to residents, with dozens of them being children. Sherif, whose sister was killed, said: “They couldn’t find a tent or somewhere to live. This was the last place they could turn to, despite the danger. They were aware that it would likely end in tragedy. A lack of resources drove them towards certain death.“

A woman living in a tent nearby, Umm Mohammed Bakrun, said she had been talking to her son when the building collapsed suddenly. “It felt like an earthquake. There was a loud sound and I couldn’t stand up. Stones rained down on us and when I looked outside I saw a lot of dust,” she told the BBC. “Within minutes, there were screams everywhere.” Another witness, Mansour Abu Mohammed, said the building collapsed “in a few seconds”. “Every day, a stone or a few stones would fall from it, but the people inside couldn’t find anywhere else to live. I used to live next door to it and you could see that it was tilting to one side.”

READ ALSO:

UN and Egyptian teams joined the search for survivors, which was slow due to a lack of heavy machinery. Initially, rescuers from the Hamas-run Civil Defence agency had to use their bare hands. Egypt provided heavy machinery for the rescue operation, while the United Arab Emirates and Qatar were set to deliver relief items. The Palestinian Civil Defence said rescue teams had been working continuously since the collapse, but lacked even the most basic tools. “In the first moments after the collapse, we had to ask neighbours and displaced people nearby to bring hammers, shovels and other tools because of the severe shortage of equipment,” said Abdullah al-Majdalawi, director of public relations at Gaza’s Civil Defence. The head of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Gaza office, Alessandro Mrakic, told reporters at the scene that “the situation… is tragic because we don’t have the equipment and machinery that is needed”.

Mrakic warned that approximately 400 other war-damaged buildings across Gaza were at imminent risk of collapse, particularly as winter approaches. The Civil Defence agency has identified around 2,000 buildings across the territory at risk of collapse. “We need support, most importantly with machinery, equipment, among others. Our colleagues here don’t have [engine] oil and spare parts to continue to work with all the equipment that is still in Gaza.” The UN’s humanitarian relief coordinator, Ramiz Alakbarov, said he was “devastated” by the reports. “No-one should have to risk their life simply to find a safe place to shelter,” he said. He also urged Israeli authorities to approve deliveries to Gaza of heavy machinery for rescue operations, as well as tents, tarpaulins and other non-food items for displaced people ahead of the winter rains. Israel says its restrictions are meant to keep equipment out of the hands of Palestinian armed groups that could also have military uses.

An estimated 80% of all structures in Gaza have been destroyed or damaged during the war between Israel and Hamas, according to the UN. More than 1.9 million people — about 90% of the territory’s population — have been displaced, many of them multiple times, and 1.2 million of them are currently living in tents or makeshift shelters. The UN has warned that the humanitarian situation in Gaza remains dire despite the ceasefire agreed last October, as Israeli air strikes and other attacks continue to hit populated areas, causing casualties and property damage and driving further displacement. According to Gaza’s health ministry, 1,369 Palestinians have been killed and 4,627 wounded since the fragile ceasefire took effect on 11 October 2025. The total death toll since the war began has reached 73,783, with 174,738 injured.

On Tuesday, Israeli air strikes killed at least five Palestinians, including two children and a Hamas commander, according to health officials and Hamas sources. The Israeli military said it killed a Hamas commander in southern Gaza and another fighter in the north. In both cases, a child was also reportedly killed. Separately, the British charity Medical Aid for Palestinians said that a patient was killed by an Israeli drone at a health centre it supports in Jabalia in northern Gaza. A spokesperson for the Israeli military told the BBC it was not aware of such an incident.

The Gaza war was triggered by the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel on 7 October 2023, when about 1,200 people were killed and 251 others were taken hostage. Since then, more than 73,790 people have been killed in Gaza, according to the territory’s Hamas-run health ministry, whose figures are considered reliable by the UN. In a statement, the Gaza government media office under Hamas said it held “the Israeli occupation and the international community fully and directly responsible for this catastrophe befalling our Palestinian people“.

Gaza Building Collapse Kills 21, Including Eight Children

Loading

Continue Reading

Trending