Why Petrol Remains Expensive Despite Dangote Refinery’s Local Production

Why Petrol Remains Expensive Despite Dangote Refinery’s Local Production

Nigeria’s emergence as a major local refining hub has reduced the country’s dependence on imported petroleum products, but it has not insulated consumers from rising petrol prices, with the cost of crude oil, international market conditions, refinery economics and downstream distribution continuing to influence pump prices.

The development has renewed debate over why Nigerians are still paying relatively high prices for Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) despite the operation of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, Africa’s largest refinery.

The refinery recently increased its petrol gantry price to N1,350 per litre, from N1,265, amid higher crude oil prices and rising replacement costs in the downstream market. The increase has subsequently put pressure on marketers and filling stations to adjust their pump prices.

Dangote Group President Aliko Dangote has explained that domestic refining does not automatically mean petrol will be priced independently of the international oil market because crude remains the principal raw material for refining.

The refinery therefore remains exposed to the cost of crude oil, whether the feedstock is sourced locally or imported.

This is particularly important because Nigerian crude is commercially linked to international benchmarks. As a result, producing petrol domestically removes some import-related costs but does not eliminate the underlying value of the crude used to manufacture the product.

Recent developments also show that the availability and cost of Nigerian crude oil remain central to the economics of the Dangote refinery.

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) reported that 53.7 million barrels of crude oil and condensate were supplied to local refineries between April and June 2026, representing 97.4 per cent performance under the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO).

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At the Dangote refinery, producers offered 68.1 million barrels against the facility’s requirement of 63 million barrels during the second quarter. The refinery eventually accepted 52.6 million barrels, equivalent to about 78 per cent of the volumes offered to it.

The figures indicate that the issue is not simply whether crude is available in Nigeria, but also the commercial terms, grades, logistics and timing involved in supplying it to the refinery.

Dangote has previously raised concerns about the cost and competitiveness of some domestic crude supplies. A portion of the refinery’s crude intake has at times been imported, while the company has continued seeking ways to secure sufficient Nigerian crude at competitive prices.

The refinery’s access to domestic crude has, however, improved considerably.

Dangote secured at least 16 million barrels of Nigerian crude for October delivery, equivalent to about 520,000 barrels per day and representing most of the refinery’s 700,000-barrel-per-day capacity.

The October supply includes allocations from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) as well as additional crude purchased through tenders.

The refinery received an average of about 565,000 barrels per day of Nigerian crude in August, nearly twice its average intake in 2025.

The increased domestic supply could reduce the refinery’s exposure to imported crude, but it does not necessarily mean petrol prices will fall immediately.

The reason is that the cost of crude is only one component of the final price of petrol.

Other factors include refining costs, financing, storage, transportation, depot charges, distribution and retail margins. Exchange-rate movements can also affect costs linked to dollar-denominated purchases and other imported inputs.

The removal of the petrol subsidy has further changed Nigeria’s fuel-pricing structure. Rather than having the government absorb a large portion of the difference between market costs and the regulated pump price, consumers are now more directly exposed to changes in market conditions.

Consequently, movements in global crude prices can affect locally refined petrol just as they affect imported products.

The recent rise in the Dangote refinery’s petrol price demonstrates this relationship. The refinery’s latest adjustment reflected rising crude prices and increased replacement costs faced by refiners, importers and depot operators.

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The relationship between global prices and domestic petrol prices has also worked in the opposite direction when crude prices declined.

Earlier in the year, the Dangote refinery reduced its petrol price as international crude prices eased, illustrating how changes in the global market can be transmitted to locally refined products.

The refinery is also increasingly becoming a participant in the international refined-products market rather than solely a supplier to Nigeria.

The facility generated $1.82 billion in net profit during the first half of 2026, on revenue of more than $13 billion, reversing a $476 million loss recorded in 2025.

The refinery has expanded exports of jet fuel, diesel and gasoil, with the company becoming a significant supplier to international markets during disruptions to global fuel supplies.

The development demonstrates the commercial reality of operating a large refinery: refined products can be sold into domestic or international markets depending on market conditions, prices and demand.

For Nigeria, the refinery nevertheless represents a major structural change in the downstream petroleum sector.

The country previously relied heavily on imported refined petrol despite being a major crude oil producer. Increased domestic refining means more crude can be converted into petroleum products within Nigeria, reducing dependence on imported finished products and potentially improving energy security.

The refinery is also expected to expand its capacity further, with plans to increase refining capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day over the next three years.

The larger capacity could increase domestic availability of refined products and strengthen Nigeria’s position as a regional supplier.

However, greater refining capacity by itself does not guarantee permanently cheaper petrol.

For consumers, the crucial issue is how efficiently the entire petroleum value chain operates—from crude production and supply to refining, transportation, storage and retail distribution.

The Domestic Crude Supply Obligation is intended to improve access to Nigerian crude for local refineries. Increased domestic crude production and stronger commercial arrangements between producers and refiners could further improve the reliability of supply.

There are also efforts to address logistics and supply challenges, including proposals for crude-swap arrangements designed to match domestic refiners with local producers and potentially reduce delivery times and logistical complications.

If such measures improve the reliability and competitiveness of domestic crude supply, they could strengthen the economics of local refining.

For now, however, Nigerians remain exposed to a combination of global crude oil prices, domestic crude supply costs, exchange-rate pressures and downstream distribution expenses.

This means that the biggest benefit of the Dangote refinery may not necessarily be an immediate collapse in petrol prices, but a reduction in Nigeria’s dependence on imported refined fuel, greater domestic refining capacity and the potential to retain more value from the petroleum chain within the country.

The immediate challenge remains translating those structural gains into greater petrol price stability and affordability for households, businesses and transport operators.

As Dangote increases its intake of Nigerian crude and moves towards higher utilisation, the cost and reliability of its feedstock will remain critical to the price of petrol in Nigeria.

The latest developments therefore suggest that local refining has changed Nigeria’s fuel supply landscape, but it has not disconnected petrol prices from the international oil market.

Why Petrol Remains Expensive Despite Dangote Refinery’s Local Production