International
With possible Iran-Israel ceasefire, Trump’s high-risk strikes may pay off
With possible Iran-Israel ceasefire, Trump’s high-risk strikes may pay off
US President Donald Trump took a gamble by inserting the US into the worsening conflict between Israel and Iran, but it may have paid off – at least for now.
Trump announced on Monday evening that the two countries had agreed to a ceasefire that he said could lead to a lasting peace.
If the American president has in fact ended what he labelled the “12 Day War”, it would make for a significant step back from the brink of a conflict that seemed on the verge of engulfing the region, along with pulling America further in after US airstrikes hit Iranian nuclear facilities on Saturday.
“Provided that the Israeli regime stops its illegal aggression against the Iranian people no later than 4 am Tehran time,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a statement, “we have no intention to continue our response afterwards.”
It may not be called a ceasefire, but as the 04:00 deadline arrived in Tehran the Israeli attacks reportedly came to a halt. The two parties appear to be on the verge of turning down the heat.
This development comes after a tumultuous day in the region, when Iran followed through on its promise to retaliate for Saturday’s US strike.
According to early reports, all the Iranian missiles directed at the massive US base in Qatar were intercepted and there were no American casualties or damage.
During his address to the nation on Saturday night, President Trump warned that there would be an overwhelming American answer to any Iranian attacks on US interests. He promised that there were more targets that could be struck by American forces if needed.
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For more than 24 hours, the world waited to see what Iran would do. Once Iran had acted, attention swung back to the US president and, after a few hours, he had his first say.
“Iran has officially responded to our Obliteration of their Nuclear Facilities with a very weak response, which we expected, and have very effectively countered,” Trump posted on his social media site.
He said that Iran had gotten it out of their “system” and added that “perhaps Iran can now proceed to Peace and Harmony in the Region”.
While the damage is reported to limited, Trump seemed inclined to hold his fire in the hope that the Iranians would be willing to negotiate in earnest. And, behind the scenes, the White House says he was talking to Qatari mediators and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to work out the details of the ceasefire.
Trump’s weekend attack on Iran was a high-risk manoeuvre, but a scenario in which the pay-offs are already coming into view.
A similar dynamic played itself out in January 2020, when Trump ordered the targeted killing of Iranian Revolutionary Guard leader Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad.
Iran launched missiles at military bases in Iraq, injuring more than 100 American soldiers, but the US chose not to escalate. Cooler heads ultimately prevailed.
According to US media, in their latest attack on Monday, Iran fired a number of missiles at American bases equal to the total number of bombs US warplanes dropped during its weekend attack.
That, along with the advance notice Iran provided to the Qatari government prior to the launch, for which Trump said he was grateful, suggests the Iranians are seeking proportionality, not escalation.
For most of the day, Trump was more focused on the price of oil, American media coverage and a suggestion by former Russian President Dimitry Medvedev that an outside nation provide Iran with nuclear weapons.
US officials have stated that this president follows through on his threats, in contrast with some of his predecessors.
If Iran were to launch another round of attacks – and there were American deaths or significant damage – pressure would mount for Trump to respond.
For the moment, however, he is seemingly eyeing an off-ramp to more fighting and both countries appear willing to entertain it.
BBC
With possible Iran-Israel ceasefire, Trump’s high-risk strikes may pay off
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International
Ecuador Intelligence Chief, 5 Americans Killed in Kenya Helicopter Crash
Ecuador Intelligence Chief, 5 Americans Killed in Kenya Helicopter Crash
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International
US indicts 17 Iranians over $20m cyber-theft campaign targeting 322 global institutions
US indicts 17 Iranians over $20m cyber-theft campaign targeting 322 global institutions
Justice Department Unseals 14-Count Superseding Indictment Alleging Massive Hacking Operation Conducted on Behalf of Iranian Government and IRGC
The United States has charged 17 Iranian nationals in connection with an alleged massive cyber-theft campaign that targeted hundreds of universities, private companies, government agencies, and non-governmental organisations across the globe. The US Department of Justice announced on Tuesday that a 14-count superseding indictment had been unsealed against members of the Mabna Institute, an Iran-based company accused of conducting coordinated cyber intrusions since at least 2013, according to multiple reports.
The indictment, which has been assigned to US District Judge Jesse M. Furman in the Southern District of New York, represents one of the most extensive cyber-related prosecutions ever brought against Iranian actors. Nine of the 17 defendants were previously charged in a seven-count indictment announced in March 2018, while Tuesday’s superseding indictment adds eight additional defendants to the case, expanding the scope of the alleged criminal enterprise.
Assistant Attorney General for National Security John Eisenberg stated that the defendants allegedly hacked universities and research institutions worldwide at the behest of entities including Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), stealing large volumes of information and intellectual property. The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) also stated that the defendants allegedly operated a “hacking-for-hire” network targeting intellectual property belonging to American and allied universities, companies, and government agencies for the benefit of the Iranian government. The US authorities stressed that an indictment is merely an allegation and that all defendants are presumed innocent until proven guilty beyond a reasonable doubt.
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The alleged hacking campaign targeted a staggering number of victims globally, including 144 US-based universities and 178 foreign universities, totalling 322 academic institutions worldwide. The hackers are alleged to have targeted more than 100,000 university professor accounts globally and successfully compromised about 8,000 accounts across the identified universities. The campaign, which began around 2013 and continued through at least December 2017, targeted academic research and intellectual property across fields including science and technology, engineering, social sciences, and medicine.
The Justice Department said the hackers stole at least 31.5 terabytes of academic data and intellectual property, including journals, theses, dissertations, and electronic books. Some of the stolen material was allegedly sold through websites operated or affiliated with members of the conspiracy, transforming stolen academic resources into a profitable underground enterprise. Beyond universities, the defendants allegedly compromised employee email accounts at at least 42 US-based private companies, 11 foreign companies, and several government agencies and non-governmental organisations.
The alleged hacking campaign extended beyond academic institutions to include several high-profile government and non-governmental organisations. The Justice Department identified the following entities as among those targeted: the US Department of Labor, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), the states of Hawaii and Indiana, the United Nations, and the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF). The superseding indictment also alleges that members of the group targeted HBO and were involved in hacking private companies and government entities, causing victims to incur more than $20 million in investigation and remediation costs.
A central element of the indictment is the alleged connection between the Mabna Institute and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The Justice Department alleged that many of the cyber intrusions were conducted on behalf of the IRGC and other Iranian government and university clients. The Mabna Institute was founded around 2013 by Gholamreza Rafatnejad and Ehsan Mohammadi, according to the Justice Department. The organisation allegedly assisted Iranian universities and research institutions in obtaining unauthorised access to scientific resources outside Iran while also providing hacking services to Iranian government and private entities.
This mirrors actions taken by the US Treasury Department in March 2018, when it announced sanctions against the Mabna Institute and 10 individuals, stating that the group had been acting at the behest of the IRGC. The Treasury Department had also noted that one of the hackers involved had attempted to extort $6 million from a US media company and was previously indicted in November 2017, demonstrating a pattern of aggressive cyber-operations and financial extortion.
The US Department of State’s Rewards for Justice programme is offering up to $10 million for information leading to the location of five of the defendants: Behzad Mesri, Mojtaba Galekuhi, Arman Kahzadian, Keyvan Fayaz, and Saber Shahbazi Ballojeh. This substantial reward reflects the seriousness with which US authorities view these alleged cyber-operations and their commitment to bringing the perpetrators to justice.
The case highlights the persistent challenge of state-sponsored cyber-operations and the ongoing efforts by US authorities to hold perpetrators accountable through legal and financial measures. With the charged individuals believed to be outside the United States and no extradition treaty with Iran, their apprehension remains uncertain. However, the US continues to pursue international cooperation and legal avenues to bring them to justice, signalling that such cyber-operations will not go unanswered.
US indicts 17 Iranians over $20m cyber-theft campaign targeting 322 global institutions
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International
Trump Declares Strait of Hormuz ‘New US Territory’ on Truth Social as Iran Vows to Keep Waterway Closed
Trump Declares Strait of Hormuz ‘New US Territory’ on Truth Social as Iran Vows to Keep Waterway Closed
United States President Donald Trump has escalated tensions with Iran by posting an image on his social media platform, Truth Social, that labels the strategic Strait of Hormuz as “NEW U.S. TERRITORY.” The graphic, posted on Tuesday, shows a map of the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, with the strait circled beneath a banner reading “NEW U.S. TERRITORY.” The provocative post comes just days after Trump first raised the idea of a US takeover, saying at a political rally in New York state that “pretty soon I’ll be declaring the Hormuz Strait a territory of the United States.” Trump has repeatedly floated the idea of American control over Hormuz since the conflict began, earlier proposing a 20 per cent fee on all cargo shipped through the strait under what he described as the United States’ role as “Guardian of the Hormuz Strait.” The UN shipping agency said it strongly opposed any such fees and that there was no legal mechanism to impose them. The claim has no basis in international law. The Strait of Hormuz lies within the territorial waters of Iran and Oman and is governed by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, which guarantees the right of transit passage through international straits to all nations. However, legal experts note that neither Iran nor the United States is a party to the convention, stripping those provisions of binding force in this context, creating a legal vacuum where the principle of “transit passage” cannot be invoked legally.
Iranian officials have reacted swiftly and forcefully to Trump’s latest provocation. Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister, dismissed Trump’s comment as a “delusion,” warning that Tehran would “correct the delusions of this deluded man.” “The Strait of Hormuz has been Iranian, is Iranian, and will remain Iranian,” Gharibabadi said on X. “This strait will only be closed and opened under Iran’s command.” In a separate post, Gharibabadi also drew attention to the fact that Trump had “correctly” written the name of the “eternal Persian Gulf” rather than using the term “Arabian Gulf” preferred by US-allied Arab states. “Soon, his mistake regarding the Strait of Hormuz will either be corrected, or we will correct the delusions of this man who lives in illusions,” he wrote.
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Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s Parliament Speaker and chief negotiator, told parliament on Tuesday that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until the United States meets Tehran’s demands. “I want to state clearly that the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened until the American commitments stipulated in the memorandum of understanding are implemented,” Ghalibaf said. Tehran’s four conditions include lifting the US naval blockade of Iranian ports, lifting oil sanctions, freeing up frozen Iranian assets abroad, and ending military threats and operations on all fronts. These conditions were outlined in a June 17 memorandum of understanding signed by both parties, which set a 60-day timeframe for a final peace agreement. However, the process quickly stalled over disagreements about control of the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump declared the agreement “over” on July 7.
The US president has also threatened to bomb Oman if the Gulf state interferes with American efforts over the strait. In a phone interview with Fox News, Trump said that if “Oman gets in the way we’ll bomb the s— out of them.” The threat came as Iran and Oman have been negotiating an agreement on managing the strait, with Tehran saying the two sides had reached an understanding on the route that ships would use. Trump later addressed the remarks while speaking to reporters in the Oval Office, saying of Oman: “I don’t think they behaved very well, but we’d handle them very easily, just like we do other things.” Oman, through whose territorial waters the contested Strait of Hormuz also flows, has positioned itself as a neutral party in the US-Iran war and is currently negotiating with Iran over the reopening of the critical waterway.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints, through which roughly 20 per cent of the global oil and gas supply normally passes. Before the war, approximately 110 ships passed through the waterway daily. Since the US-Israel-Iran war began on February 28, traffic through the strait has fallen dramatically. Only one ship crossed the Strait of Hormuz on August 16, down from eight ships on August 15 and marking a record low, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea. The average number of ships transiting the strait over the last week was about 12 vessels per day, down from more than 130 a day before the United States and Israel attacked Iran in late February. The closure of Hormuz has driven up energy prices, creating a political headache for Trump as November’s midterm elections near. The national average price of gasoline in the United States have been at their highest recorded levels for the month of August, according to the AAA motor club, while Brent crude was at about $91 a barrel, up from $72 just before the start of the war.
Maritime law experts have questioned the legitimacy of Trump’s claim. Jason Chuah, Professor of Maritime Law at City, University of London, told CNN that a US claim to the territory could not be established simply through a presidential declaration. “Under US law, claiming territory by a Presidential declaration is not enough. There are important constitutional requirements that must be cleared first,” Chuah said. “Under international law, annexation is contrary to the United Nations Charter. Territories including bodies of water can only be taken through agreement or cession.” Simon Baughen, Professor of Shipping Law at Swansea University, said Washington’s claim over the strait was highly unlikely to ever come to fruition, describing such a scenario as “very unlikely.” Chuah stressed that neither Iran nor Oman has unrestricted rights over the entire Strait of Hormuz. “Freedom of navigation prevails. That is the law,” he said. “The Strait is neither Iranian property nor Omani property in the ordinary sense of a piece of real estate. It is sovereign territory very much subject to an international regime of maritime navigation.” “A navy can control a waterway. It cannot, merely by controlling it, rewrite the law of title.”
Trump Declares Strait of Hormuz ‘New US Territory’ on Truth Social as Iran Vows to Keep Waterway Closed
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