Business
World Bank raises Nigeria’s GDP growth projection to 1.8%
The World Bank has increased Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product growth forecast for 2021 to 1.8 per cent, which is higher by 0.7 per cent than its initial projection earlier this year.
The bank, in its June 2021 Global Economic Prospect just released, also forecast the GDP growth to hit 2.1 per cent for the country in 2022, compared with the 1.8 per cent it had predicted for Nigeria in the earlier report released in January.
Nigeria recorded a GDP growth rate of 0.51 per cent (year-on-year) in the first quarter of 2021, (Q1 2021) compared with the 0.11 per cent recorded in the fourth quarter (Q4) 2020, according to figures the National Bureau of Statistics released last month.
But the World Bank said its positive prediction for Nigeria was based on the expectation that crude oil prices would remain high as well as the government effecting structural reforms and flexible exchange rate management.
It said, “Growth in Nigeria is expected to resume at 1.8 per cent in 2021 and edge up to 2.1 per cent next year, assuming higher oil prices, structural oil sector reforms, and market-based flexible exchange rate management.”
The report stated that output in sub-Saharan Africa shrank at an estimated 2.4 per cent in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, a milder-than-expected recession.
It added that growth in the region has gradually resumed this year, which it stated was a reflection of positive spillover from strengthening global economic activity, including higher oil and metal prices, and some progress in containing COVID-19, especially in Western and Central Africa.
“The pandemic has contributed to wider budget deficits and a spike in government debt, heightening the risk of debt distress in some countries. Activity in the three largest economies—Angola, Nigeria, and South Africa— has partially recovered.
“Many industrial and agricultural commodity exporting countries experienced deep contractions last year. In tourism reliant countries, international arrivals have been at a near-halt, and tourism is likely to remain slow until wider vaccination permits safe reopening to international travel.
“Despite improvement, COVID-19 has continued to have adverse impacts on health, schooling, investment, and economic growth,” it stated.
According to the report, in some countries such as Angola and Nigeria, accommodative monetary and fiscal policies, currency depreciations, and rising food and energy prices “have stoked inflation.”
“Elsewhere (Kenya, South Africa), subdued demand has kept inflation in check,” it added.
The report noted that foreign direct investments in the region had been resilient, recouping about nine-tenths of their pre-pandemic levels, and workers’ remittances to the region have held up better than expected.
“Growth is forecast to resume to 2.8 per cent this year and firm to 3.3 per cent in 2022, underpinned by stronger external demand, mainly from China and the United States, higher commodity prices, and containment of COVID-19.
“Procurement and logistical challenges are expected to continue hobble the pace of vaccination despite the provision of vaccines by COVAX. Policy uncertainty and the lingering effects of the pandemic are expected to delay major investments in infrastructure and extractives and to weigh on the recovery (Central African Republic, Equatorial Guinea, Niger, Kenya).
“Per capita income levels in 2022 are expected to be four per cent lower on average than in 2019. Conditions in the region’s fragile and conflict-affected countries are expected to be particularly challenging; their average output level in 2022 is forecast to be 5.3 per cent below its size in 2019,” it said.
World Bank Group President, Mr David Malpass, said, “While there are welcome signs of global recovery, the pandemic continues to inflict poverty and inequality on people in developing countries around the world.”
Business
Tax Evasion: Lagos Government Sues Bi-Courtney, DAAR, 33 Others
Tax Evasion: Lagos Government Sues Bi-Courtney, DAAR, 33 Others
The Lagos State Government has initiated legal proceedings against 45 individuals and corporate entities over alleged unpaid taxes amounting to several billions of naira.
The cases have been filed before the state’s revenue court as part of intensified efforts to enforce compliance with tax regulations and improve internally generated revenue.
Prominent among those listed in the suits are Bi-Courtney Aviation Services, operators of the Murtala Muhammed Airport Terminal Two; DAAR Communications Plc, owners of Africa Independent Television; and Leaders & Company Limited, publishers of ThisDay newspaper.
Official figures indicate that Bi-Courtney Aviation Services allegedly owes N38.7 million, while DAAR Communications has an outstanding liability of N22.4 million. Leaders & Company Limited is also accused of defaulting on taxes to the tune of N67.1 million.
Other organisations identified as major defaulters include GMT Energy Resources Limited, with liabilities exceeding N145.8 million, and Sheriff Deputies Limited, which allegedly owes over N132.1 million.
The list further features companies such as Heyden Petroleum Limited, AA Rescue, and Primero Transport Services Limited, alongside several others with varying tax obligations.
Additional firms named in the court filings include IENG Nigeria Limited, James Fisher Nigeria Limited, V Care Diagnostics Limited, Venture Garden Nigeria Limited, Saro Africa International Limited, and Barry Callebaut Nigeria Limited.
Media and technology firms, including Native Media Limited, First Consulting Media & Centre Limited, and Eyowo Integrated Payments, were also listed as defendants.
The State Attorney-General and Commissioner for Justice, Lawal Pedro, disclosed that the decision to commence legal action followed repeated notices issued to the affected parties, which were ignored.
He noted that while individual tax liabilities range between N13.5 million and N35 million, corporate organisations account for the bulk of the outstanding sums.
Pedro explained that the state government resorted to litigation after the taxpayers failed to fulfil their statutory obligations or take advantage of opportunities provided to regularise their tax status.
He added that the enforcement initiative forms part of broader efforts to strengthen tax compliance and boost revenue required for infrastructure development and essential public services.
The Attorney-General further clarified that taxpayers who complied with pre-action notices and settled their outstanding liabilities would not be prosecuted.
He urged residents and business operators to adhere strictly to tax laws by filing annual returns and paying assessed taxes promptly, warning that continued default could attract penalties, interest, and further legal consequences.
Tax Evasion: Lagos Government Sues Bi-Courtney, DAAR, 33 Others
Business
US-Iran Conflict: MAN Outlines Urgent Steps to Shield Nigerian Manufacturers
US-Iran Conflict: MAN Outlines Urgent Steps to Shield Nigerian Manufacturers
The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) has raised alarm over the escalating US-Iran conflict impact on Nigerian manufacturers, warning that the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pose immediate, severe, and multi-layered risks to Nigeria’s industrial sector.
Director-General of MAN, Segun Ajayi-Kadir, said the sector is already feeling the effects of a global energy shock, noting that the industry’s projected 3.1% growth target for 2026 is now under serious threat.
He explained that manufacturers’ dependence on diesel and gas for production has left them highly vulnerable to rising global crude oil prices, which have pushed up domestic energy costs and significantly eroded profit margins.
“Energy cost escalation is biting hard. Many manufacturers are seeing their margins wiped out almost overnight,” Ajayi-Kadir said, highlighting the growing strain on operators.
The energy crisis in Nigeria’s manufacturing sector has been compounded by imported inflation, rising freight charges, and prolonged shipping delays. According to MAN, higher logistics and transportation costs are making the importation of critical raw materials increasingly expensive, thereby disrupting production cycles.
Ajayi-Kadir warned that the situation has created a double burden of rising production costs and weakening consumer demand, leaving many manufacturers with unsold inventories and shrinking revenues.
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“The implication is clear – production costs are rising sharply, while consumer purchasing power is weakening. Manufacturers are now battling both high costs and unsold inventories,” he said.
Beyond energy and logistics challenges, MAN noted that exchange rate volatility and limited access to foreign exchange have further complicated operations, making it difficult for manufacturers to source essential inputs.
To mitigate the crisis, MAN outlined several key measures to stabilise Nigeria’s manufacturing sector, urging the Federal Government to act swiftly.
The association called for the fast-tracking of the Presidential Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) initiative, which it believes will help industrial clusters reduce reliance on diesel and lower energy costs.
It also recommended the creation of a dedicated foreign exchange window by the Central Bank of Nigeria to ensure manufacturers have timely access to forex for importing raw materials and machinery.
In addition, MAN advocated for the domestication of petroleum supply chains, urging local refineries to prioritise supply to domestic manufacturers at competitive rates to cushion the impact of global oil price volatility.
To ease logistics pressures, the group proposed a six-month suspension of multiple taxation, haulage levies, and highway tolls, noting that transport-related costs have surged significantly.
“The current crisis is a stark reminder of Nigeria’s vulnerability to external shocks due to our dependence on imported inputs,” Ajayi-Kadir said, stressing the need for structural reforms.
He added that the situation presents an opportunity for Nigeria to pursue manufacturing self-sufficiency, reduce import dependence, and build a more resilient industrial base.
Industry analysts also warn that sectors such as chemicals, pharmaceuticals, food processing, and steel are particularly exposed due to their reliance on imported inputs and sensitivity to global price fluctuations.
MAN cautioned that failure to implement urgent interventions could lead to factory shutdowns, job losses, reduced industrial output, and a major setback to Nigeria’s industrialisation drive.
“We cannot control global geopolitics, but we can control our domestic response,” Ajayi-Kadir reiterated, urging policymakers to treat the situation as both a crisis and an opportunity to reposition Nigeria’s manufacturing sector for long-term sustainability.
US-Iran Conflict: MAN Outlines Urgent Steps to Shield Nigerian Manufacturers
Business
Cash vs Digital: Nigeria’s Cashless Dream Meets Street Reality
Cash vs Digital: Nigeria’s Cashless Dream Meets Street Reality
By Dr Ramanathan Murugesan, FCA, CPA
On a humid afternoon in Lagos, 24-year-old Adaeze sways inside a crowded danfo bus—one hand clinging to a metal rail, the other navigating her phone. Within seconds, she transfers her fare to the conductor. No notes. No coins. No delay.
A few kilometres away, at a roadside fruit stall, the future stalls.
A customer reaches for his phone. “Transfer?” he asks.
The vendor doesn’t hesitate. “No network. Bring cash.”
In that moment lies the paradox of modern Nigeria.
Digital payments are booming, yet cash refuses to fade. After more than a decade of policy reforms and fintech disruption, Africa’s largest economy is not cashless. It is something far more complex—a nation suspended between innovation and infrastructure, trust and uncertainty.
Policy spark, behaviour shift
Nigeria’s cashless journey began in 2012, when the Central Bank of Nigeria rolled out policies to curb cash usage and modernise payments.
On paper, the transformation is undeniable.
Data from the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System shows electronic transactions rising steadily year after year. The NIBSS Instant Payment platform has become the backbone of real-time transfers, powering everything from salary payments to street-level commerce.
Traditional banks—Access Bank, Guaranty Trust Bank (GTBank), Zenith Bank, and United Bank for Africa (UBA)—have reinvented themselves as digital-first institutions. Alongside them, fintech disruptors like Flutterwave, Paystack, Opay, and PalmPay have democratised payments, turning smartphones into wallets.
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In Nigeria’s cities, cash is no longer king—it is contested territory.
Fintech’s quiet revolution
If policy lit the spark, fintech fanned the flames.
For decades, millions of Nigerians existed outside the formal banking system. Fintech changed that—swiftly and at scale. With minimal paperwork and mobile-first platforms, financial services reached markets banks had long ignored.
Nowhere is this more visible than in the explosion of PoS agents. Across urban streets and rural corners alike, small kiosks double as micro-banks, handling deposits, withdrawals, and transfers.
For small businesses, this shift has been transformative. Digital payments reduce the risks of holding cash, expand customer options, and streamline operations.
Yet the revolution is uneven.
While Lagos and Abuja surge ahead, large parts of rural Nigeria remain on the margins—held back not by resistance, but by access.
Pandemic acceleration, structural exposure
Then came COVID-19—a crisis that doubled as a catalyst.
Lockdowns and health concerns pushed millions toward contactless payments. What began as necessity quickly hardened into habit, particularly among younger Nigerians.
E-commerce surged. Digital wallets swelled. Platforms like Flutterwave and Paystack recorded spikes in transaction volumes as businesses rushed online.
But beneath the growth lay fragility.
The system expanded faster than the infrastructure supporting it.
The naira redesign stress test
That fragility was laid bare during the 2022–2023 naira redesign.
As old notes were withdrawn and new ones rationed, Nigeria plunged into a cash crisis. ATMs ran empty. Banking halls overflowed. Frustration boiled over.
In desperation, millions turned to digital channels.
Transaction volumes surged—but so did failures.
Across banking apps and fintech platforms, transfers hung in limbo. Alerts delayed. Systems crashed under pressure. From GTBank to Opay, the message was the same: Nigeria’s digital rails were not yet built for shock.
The episode was more than a policy misstep—it was a stress test the system failed.
Infrastructure: The Achilles’ heel
At the heart of Nigeria’s cashless struggle lies a stubborn truth: infrastructure still lags ambition.
Unreliable electricity disrupts devices, servers, and networks. Patchy internet connectivity turns simple transfers into uncertain gambles. For millions, “transaction failed” is not an exception—it is routine.
For a roadside trader, a failed payment is not a technical glitch. It is lost income.
Cash, by contrast, is brutally simple. It works—every time.
Trust: The currency behind the currency
Beyond infrastructure lies an even more delicate issue: trust.
Digital systems promise speed, but not always certainty. Fraud, phishing, and account breaches continue to erode confidence. When transactions fail, reversals are often slow and opaque.
For many Nigerians—especially those outside the tech-savvy demographic—this uncertainty is costly.
Cash offers something digital still struggles to replicate: finality.
No pending alerts. No reversals. No doubt.
The informal economy’s quiet resistance
Any conversation about Nigeria’s payment future must confront its informal economy—vast, dynamic, and deeply cash-driven.
From open markets to roadside workshops, a significant share of economic activity operates beyond formal systems. Here, cash is not just convenient—it is strategic.
Digital payments leave trails. Cash offers discretion.
For many, the choice is not about technology, but about control.
Bringing this sector into the digital fold will require more than apps and policies. It will demand trust, incentives, and a system that works reliably at the last mile.
A nation split by access
Nigeria’s digital transition is also generational—and geographical.
Urban youth have embraced fintech with speed and ease. Smartphones, apps, and instant transfers are second nature.
But in rural communities and among older populations, adoption lags. Limited access to devices, connectivity, and digital literacy continues to widen the gap.
The result is not a unified shift, but a fragmented transition.
Cashless or cash-light?
So, has Nigeria gone cashless?
Not quite.
What has emerged instead is a “cash-light” economy—one where digital payments thrive, but cash remains indispensable.
Consumers toggle between both worlds. When networks are stable, digital wins. When systems falter, cash takes over.
This duality is not a failure. It is a reflection of reality.
The road ahead
Nigeria’s path to a truly cashless economy will not be decided by policy alone.
It will depend on power supply that does not fail, networks that do not drop, and systems that do not crash under pressure. It will require stronger consumer protection, faster dispute resolution, and deeper financial literacy.
Most importantly, it will demand trust—earned not through promises, but through performance.
An economy in motion
Nigeria is no longer where it was a decade ago. Digital payments have moved from the margins to the mainstream.
But cash remains embedded—resilient, reliable, and, for many, indispensable.
For now, the country exists between two financial realities—neither fully digital nor entirely cash-based.
It is an economy in motion, where the future of money is being shaped not just in boardrooms and policy circles, but in buses, markets, and roadside stalls.
And in Lagos, that future is decided every day—in a simple, familiar choice: Pay with a phone, or pay with cash.
Cash vs Digital: Nigeria’s Cashless Dream Meets Street Reality
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