Oil price projected to reach $80 as Nigeria suppresses brewing crisis - Newstrends
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Oil price projected to reach $80 as Nigeria suppresses brewing crisis

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Goldman Sachs Commodities Research has raised its forecast for crude price, projecting that the price of Brent crude would hit $75 by the second quarter and $80 by the third quarter.

It stated this shortly after the price of Brent crude, against which Nigeria’s crude oil is priced, rose to $68.03 per barrel on Thursday.

Goldman’s prediction also followed the decision of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries at its meeting on Thursday to leave production quotas unchanged.

The $80 prediction shows an increase from the previous $70 per barrel by the second quarter of 2021.

Goldman said, “OPEC’s supply strategy is working because of its unexpectedness and suddenness.

“We believe it is now clear that OPEC+ is in fact pursuing a tight oil market strategy, with our updated supply-demand balance pointing to OECD (inventories) falling to their lowest level since 2014 by the end of this year.”

At the 14th OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting that held virtually on Thursday, ministers approved a continuation of the production levels of March for the month of April, with the exception of Russia and Kazakhstan, which will be allowed to increase production by 130 and 20,000 barrels per day respectively.

Saudi Arabia also agreed to extend its voluntary one million barrels supply cut till April 2021.

“The meeting extends special thanks to Nigeria for achieving full conformity in January 2021 and compensating its entire overproduced volumes,” a statement released at the meeting also stated.

“The ministers thank the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Chief Timipre Sylva, for his shuttle diplomacy as Special Envoy of the JMMC to Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon and South Sudan to discuss matters pertaining to conformity levels with the voluntary production adjustments and compensation of over-produced volumes.”

The ministers agreed to extend the compensation period for countries that exceeded their supply quota till the end of July 2021.

It also cautioned all participating countries to remain vigilant and flexible given the uncertain market conditions and to remain on the course which had been voluntarily decided and which had hitherto reaped rewards.

The next OPEC and non-OPEC ministers’ meeting has been scheduled for April 1, 2021.

Back in Nigeria, the regulators of the oil industry such as the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation and the Department of Petroleum Resources have continued to measures including persuasion, threats and clampdown to address artificial fuel scarcity in Abuja, Oyo and other states over possible pump price hike.

Just as the NNPC assured the dealers and final buyers that it had enough fuel and had no plans to increase the ex-depot price of petrol, the DPR warned against hoarding and arbitrary hike and went ahead to close down some found to have flouted the instructions.

Operators in the oil sector said the rise in crude oil price meant more revenue for Nigeria but could cause further hike in the fuel prices.

This is because the bulk of the fuel consumed in Nigeria currently is imported.

Petrol queues that surfaced in Abuja and environs last week had spread to other major cities, resulting in over 100 per cent hike in transport fares in some areas.

Oil marketers attributed the scarcity of petrol in the affected areas to the alleged moves by government to hike the price of the commodity.

The NNPC dismissed reports of an upward review in ex-depot prices of petrol. Indeed, it ruled out any increase this month (March).

Major Oil Marketers of Nigeria (MOMAN) also said its members had not increased the pump price of petrol.

But the independent marketers said they could only get the product between N160 and N162 per litre at the depot instead of N148 per litre.

Group General Manager, Group Public Affairs Division of the NNPC, Dr Kennie Obateru, said there was no immediate plan to increase the pump price of fuel, adding that there was enough fuel to last for 40 days nationwide.

The fuel queues are fast disappearing as more filling stations get supply and are opening for business.

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Dangote Named Only Nigerian on TIME100 2026 Global Influence Ranking

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Africa’s richest businessman, Aliko Dangote
Alhaji Aliko Dangote, the CEO of Dangote Group

Dangote Named Only Nigerian on TIME100 2026 Global Influence Ranking

Nigerian business magnate Aliko Dangote has been named among the TIME100 Most Influential People in the World for 2026, as TIME Magazine released its latest list recognising individuals shaping global politics, business, technology, and culture.

Dangote, Africa’s richest man and founder of the Dangote Group, is the only Nigerian featured in the 2026 edition. He appears in the Titans category, recognised for his decades-long push to industrialise Africa through investments in cement, sugar, fertiliser, and the landmark Dangote Refinery—one of the largest single-train refineries in the world.

This marks Dangote’s second appearance on the TIME100 list, following his first inclusion in 2014, further cementing his status as one of Africa’s most globally recognised industrialists.

A key highlight of this year’s recognition is the tribute written by fellow Nigerian billionaire Tony Elumelu, who praised Dangote’s entrepreneurial journey and continental impact. Elumelu described him as “indefatigable, resilient, and foresighted,” and lauded him as “one of the greatest African entrepreneurs of our time.”

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He added that Dangote’s work demonstrates that Africans can create large-scale value “with our own resources, on our continent,” reinforcing the philosophy of economic self-reliance that has shaped both businessmen’s careers.

Interestingly, the gesture reflects a role reversal from previous years, as Dangote once wrote Elumelu’s TIME100 tribute when the UBA chairman appeared on the list in 2020.

The 2026 TIME100 list, now in its 23rd edition, features global figures across multiple categories, including Titans, Leaders, Innovators, Icons, Artists, and Pioneers. High-profile names this year include U.S. President Donald Trump, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and major technology leaders such as Google CEO Sundar Pichai and YouTube CEO Neal Mohan.

Other political figures featured include Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, alongside global leaders in health, finance, and multilateral institutions.

Analysts say Dangote’s inclusion carries strong symbolic significance for Africa, particularly at a time of economic restructuring and renewed calls for industrialisation and self-sufficiency across the continent. His multi-billion-dollar refinery project, in particular, is seen as a strategic asset aimed at reducing Nigeria’s reliance on imported refined petroleum products, boosting local production, and creating thousands of jobs.

The recognition also reinforces Dangote’s global reputation as a leading figure in African entrepreneurship, with his business empire spanning critical sectors of the economy and influencing industrial policy conversations across the region.

The TIME100 announcement precedes the annual TIME100 Summit scheduled for April 22 in New York, where selected honourees are expected to participate in discussions on global leadership and innovation.

The full list and tributes are available via TIME Magazine’s official platforms.

Dangote Named Only Nigerian on TIME100 2026 Global Influence Ranking

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Experts Reject World Bank Fuel Import Advice, Warn of Economic Setback for Nigeria

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Experts Reject World Bank Fuel Import Advice, Warn of Economic Setback for Nigeria

Energy experts have strongly criticised recent recommendations attributed to the World Bank urging Nigeria to deepen fuel importation and further liberalise its downstream petroleum sector, warning that the proposal is economically risky, poorly timed, and inconsistent with Nigeria’s petroleum law.

The criticism comes amid growing debate over the findings of the World Bank’s latest Nigeria Development Update, which some stakeholders say suggests a return to higher fuel import dependence as part of broader market reforms aimed at stabilising prices and improving efficiency.

However, energy economist Prof. Ken Ife faulted the recommendation, arguing that it contradicts Nigeria’s long-term goal of energy self-sufficiency and undermines ongoing investments in domestic refining capacity.

“You cannot advise a country struggling to achieve economic self-reliance to return to fuel importation,” Ife said, warning that such a policy shift would reverse gains made under the Petroleum Industry framework.

He stressed that the proposal runs counter to the provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act, particularly the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation, which prioritises crude allocation to local refineries to support domestic production.

According to him, abandoning this structure would weaken Nigeria’s refining ambitions, increase exposure to global oil shocks, and worsen pressure on foreign exchange reserves.

“We are building capacity that could exceed domestic demand. Reversing course now would discourage investors and destabilise the downstream sector,” he added.

Ife further questioned the empirical basis of the recommendation, describing it as inconsistent with the broader analytical strength of the World Bank report.

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Other energy analysts echoed similar concerns, arguing that Nigeria is already at a critical stage of expanding domestic refining, including private-sector-led investments that are expected to reduce dependence on imported petrol in the coming years.

Energy analyst Kelvin Emmanuel also criticised the proposal, insisting that it is disconnected from current global pricing realities and supply chain risks.

He argued that landing imported petrol in Nigeria is already significantly expensive when freight, insurance, and exchange rate factors are considered, making large-scale import reliance economically unsustainable.

Emmanuel further noted that rising crude oil prices—driven partly by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East—have pushed global energy markets into volatility, reinforcing the need for domestic refining resilience rather than import dependence.

He also disputed claims that imported fuel could be cheaper than locally refined products, arguing that such assumptions ignore structural cost realities in the global supply chain.

On inflation and fuel pricing, Emmanuel maintained that Nigeria’s challenges are linked more to policy implementation gaps than production shortages, particularly in crude allocation to local refineries as outlined in the Petroleum Industry Act.

“If domestic supply obligations are properly enforced, price stability will improve and market volatility will reduce,” he said.

He also criticised proposals suggesting that Nigeria should expand social safety nets through borrowing, arguing that such measures could worsen fiscal pressure and contradict responsible debt management principles.

While acknowledging that social protection is important, he insisted that funding should prioritise grants or targeted revenue sources rather than additional debt obligations.

The debate highlights growing tension between international policy advice and Nigeria’s domestic energy strategy at a time when the country is attempting to stabilise fuel supply, reduce import dependence, and strengthen local refining capacity.

Industry observers say the outcome of this policy direction could significantly shape Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector, foreign exchange stability, and long-term energy security.

Experts Reject World Bank Fuel Import Advice, Warn of Economic Setback for Nigeria

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Official, Black Market Rates Diverge as Naira Starts Week on Stable Note

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Official, Black Market Rates Diverge as Naira Starts Week on Stable Note

The Nigerian Naira began the new trading week on Monday, April 13, 2026, with slight movements against the United States Dollar across both the official and parallel foreign exchange markets, reflecting continued cautious stability in the currency environment.

In the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM), the official trading window, the Naira opened at about ₦1,358.84 per $1, before recording mild intraday fluctuations that pushed it briefly to around ₦1,362.08, before easing back toward the opening range.

The performance indicates a relatively stable session, supported by ongoing liquidity management efforts and sustained interventions by the Central Bank of Nigeria, which has continued to monitor dollar supply and demand in the banking system.

Analysts say the official market remains largely driven by inflows from oil exports, non-oil earnings, and diaspora remittances, all of which help moderate volatility in the NFEM window.

Parallel Market Remains Higher Amid Strong Demand

In contrast, the parallel market—commonly referred to as the black market—recorded significantly higher exchange rates as demand for dollars persisted among importers, traders, and individuals outside the official FX window.

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Reports from currency dealers in commercial hubs such as Lagos, Abuja, and Kano indicate that the Dollar traded between ₦1,460 and ₦1,485 during the morning session.

The wide gap between the official and parallel market rates continues to reflect structural pressures in Nigeria’s foreign exchange system, including limited liquidity access and high demand for foreign currency for imports, travel, and education-related payments.

Market Outlook and Sentiment

Financial analysts note that market sentiment remains cautious, with traders closely watching upcoming macroeconomic indicators, crude oil price movements, and possible policy signals from monetary authorities.

Experts also point out that the stability in the NFEM suggests that recent reforms and tightening measures in the foreign exchange market may be gradually improving transparency and liquidity management, even though pressure persists in the informal market segment.

For many Nigerians, fluctuations in the exchange rate continue to directly impact the cost of imported goods, fuel-related logistics, and overall inflation expectations, making daily FX movements a key economic indicator.

As of early Monday trading, market activity remained steady, with expectations that the Naira will continue to trade within a relatively narrow range unless triggered by major external shocks or policy adjustments.

Official, Black Market Rates Diverge as Naira Starts Week on Stable Note

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