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Forex crisis, declining investment threaten Nigeria’s 70% broadband target

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Forex crisis, declining investment threaten Nigeria’s 70% broadband target

Nigeria’s efforts to achieve a 70% broadband penetration by 2025 are facing significant challenges due to the ongoing foreign exchange crisis, which is affecting further investments in telecom infrastructure.  

The capacity of operators to invest in equipment has been diminished by the declining value of the Naira, coupled with a consistent decrease in Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) into the telecom industry. 

According to recent data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), FDIs in the telecom sector experienced a sharp decline of 70.5% in 2023.  

The Minister of Communications, Innovation, and Digital Economy had last year declared that the country would need an estimated $2 billion investment to lay fiber optic cables nationwide to meet the broadband target. However, in the same period, the telecom industry managed to attract only $134.75 million in FDIs. 

Local operators are also struggling to import new equipment for network improvement and expansion, as the dollar-to-naira exchange rate soars. 

Impact of forex instability 

According to Mr. Gbolahan Awonuga, the Head of Operations at the Association of Licensed Telecommunications Operators of Nigeria (ALTON), the significant rise of the dollar from about N460 last year to over N1,600 this year has disrupted the operators’ plans for importing equipment. 

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Furthermore, the Chief Financial Officer of MTN Nigeria, Mr. Modupe Kadri, discussed the company’s infrastructure investment plans for this year, noting the difficulty in justifying new investments to shareholders due to the forex issue. He stated,  

  • “The reality is that as a business, you continue to explore your options. We have a strict capital allocation framework that allows us to determine where we allocate our CapEx. However, the ultimate bottom line is the return to the shareholders.” 
  • “Now, if there is no investment case due to the terrible macroeconomic conditions we face, it becomes challenging to justify the necessary investments at the governance level. Nonetheless, we have made significant investments in enhancing our 4G and 5G networks, and our fiber assets are also increasing, he added. 

Kadri also lamented the current instability in the country’s forex market, emphasizing the critical need for forex stability to enable businesses to plan effectively and mitigate the impact of forex fluctuations on their bottom line. 

Declining FDI 

In a conversation with Nairametrics regarding the dwindling investments in the telecom industry, the Chairman of the Association of Licensed Telecommunications Operators of Nigeria (ALTON), Engineer Gbenga Adebayo, expressed significant concern. He pointed out that the telecom sector in Nigeria requires increased investment to thrive. 

  • “As indicated by last year’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) report, which highlighted a decline in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), we are apprehensive that this trend may persist. The dynamics of the exchange rate are influencing many aspects of the industry,” he explained. 

Adebayo elaborated on the investment downturn, noting,  

  • “The current investment figures are a clear indicator of the challenges facing the industry. This is adversely affecting the expansion of network infrastructure, and we fear that FDIs may continue to decline, further impacting the performance of operators.” 

He also mentioned that, apart from the reduction in investment, the limited access to foreign exchange is impeding the operators’ capability to expand and implement more broadband infrastructure. 

70% broadband penetration doubtful 

With diminishing investments and the current forex issues confronting telecom operators and businesses across the board, it appears improbable that Nigeria will meet its broadband penetration target by next year.  

According to the latest figures from the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), broadband penetration in Nigeria was 43.71% at the end of 2023.  

This indicates that the country must boost penetration by nearly 27% from now until next year to achieve the 70% target outlined in the National Broadband Plan (NBP 2020-2025), a goal that necessitates swift infrastructure deployment nationwide. 

Given the declining Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) and the forex challenges operators are facing, achieving this target within the remaining 21 months of the Broadband Plan’s timeline seems unattainable.  

When the Plan was initiated in March 2020, penetration was at 39.85%, as per NCC data. This means that over the past four years, the country’s broadband access has only improved by 3.86%. 

Why it is important 

A World Bank report has demonstrated that every 10% increase in broadband penetration can enhance a country’s GDP by at least 4.6%.  

This significant finding underscores the importance of swiftly expanding broadband services in Nigeria, aiming to tackle a variety of socio-economic challenges, such as economic growth, broadening the tax base, and enhancing digital literacy and educational standards. 

  • This rationale motivated the Nigerian government to formulate a second National Broadband Plan (NBP 2020-2025) after successfully reaching a 30% penetration milestone with the first plan (NBP 2013-2018).  
  • The NBP 2020-2025 sets ambitious objectives, including achieving internet speeds of 15Mbps in rural areas and 25Mbps in urban areas by 2025.  
  • Additionally, it aims for the interconnection of 90% of all Local Government Areas by fiber and seeks to attain 70% population penetration. Another goal is ensuring that 100% of tertiary institutions are within 5km of a fiber Point of Access. 

Moreover, the plan targets reducing the average cost of data to N390/Gb or less and establishing at least one local assembly or manufacturing plant for smart devices within Nigeria, further promoting the nation’s technological advancement and self-sufficiency. 

Forex crisis, declining investment threaten Nigeria’s 70% broadband target

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MTN Nigeria Suspends Airtime Loan Service

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MTN Nigeria Communications PLC

MTN Nigeria Suspends Airtime Loan Service 

MTN Nigeria Communications PLC has temporarily suspended its airtime and data credit service, Xtratime, following new regulatory requirements governing digital consumer lending services in Nigeria.

The company disclosed the development in a corporate filing to the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) on Thursday, stating that the suspension was necessary to comply with the 2025 Digital, Electronic, Online and Non-Traditional Consumer Lending Regulations issued by the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC).

According to MTN, the Xtratime service—which allows prepaid subscribers to borrow airtime or data and repay on their next recharge—falls under the expanded scope of the new regulatory framework and now requires additional compliance and licensing processes before it can resume.

In the regulatory notice signed by Company Secretary Uto Ukpanah, MTN said:
“MTN Nigeria Communications PLC hereby notifies the Nigerian Exchange Limited and the investing public that the company has temporarily suspended its airtime and data credit advance service (‘Xtratime’).”

The telecom operator added that the suspension is tied to ongoing implementation of the FCCPC’s updated rules, which introduce stricter compliance, registration, and licensing obligations for all providers of digital or non-traditional credit services.

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MTN stressed that despite the suspension, customers can still purchase airtime and data through other available channels, including banking platforms, USSD services, and mobile apps, assuring that the decision is not expected to significantly affect earnings.

“Given the scale within the revenue mix, we do not expect the temporary suspension to have a material impact,” the company said, adding that updates would be provided in its Q1 2026 financial report.

The development highlights the widening reach of Nigeria’s consumer credit regulations, which now extend beyond banks and fintech loan apps to include telecommunications companies offering airtime advances.

The FCCPC had earlier introduced a framework for digital lending in 2022 but strengthened enforcement with the 2025 regulations, requiring all operators in the sector to register and obtain approval before continuing operations.

Under the new rules, companies offering short-term digital credit services must meet stricter standards on consumer protection, transparency, data governance, and ethical debt recovery practices. The commission has reportedly set an April 2026 deadline for full compliance by existing operators.

Industry analysts say the move reflects a broader effort by regulators to bring order to Nigeria’s fast-growing digital credit ecosystem, where airtime loans have become a key financial support tool for millions of low-income mobile users.

For now, MTN has not announced a timeline for restoring the Xtratime service, stating only that it will resume once full regulatory compliance is achieved.

MTN Nigeria Suspends Airtime Loan Service

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Dangote Named Only Nigerian on TIME100 2026 Global Influence Ranking

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Africa’s richest businessman, Aliko Dangote
Alhaji Aliko Dangote, the CEO of Dangote Group

Dangote Named Only Nigerian on TIME100 2026 Global Influence Ranking

Nigerian business magnate Aliko Dangote has been named among the TIME100 Most Influential People in the World for 2026, as TIME Magazine released its latest list recognising individuals shaping global politics, business, technology, and culture.

Dangote, Africa’s richest man and founder of the Dangote Group, is the only Nigerian featured in the 2026 edition. He appears in the Titans category, recognised for his decades-long push to industrialise Africa through investments in cement, sugar, fertiliser, and the landmark Dangote Refinery—one of the largest single-train refineries in the world.

This marks Dangote’s second appearance on the TIME100 list, following his first inclusion in 2014, further cementing his status as one of Africa’s most globally recognised industrialists.

A key highlight of this year’s recognition is the tribute written by fellow Nigerian billionaire Tony Elumelu, who praised Dangote’s entrepreneurial journey and continental impact. Elumelu described him as “indefatigable, resilient, and foresighted,” and lauded him as “one of the greatest African entrepreneurs of our time.”

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He added that Dangote’s work demonstrates that Africans can create large-scale value “with our own resources, on our continent,” reinforcing the philosophy of economic self-reliance that has shaped both businessmen’s careers.

Interestingly, the gesture reflects a role reversal from previous years, as Dangote once wrote Elumelu’s TIME100 tribute when the UBA chairman appeared on the list in 2020.

The 2026 TIME100 list, now in its 23rd edition, features global figures across multiple categories, including Titans, Leaders, Innovators, Icons, Artists, and Pioneers. High-profile names this year include U.S. President Donald Trump, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and major technology leaders such as Google CEO Sundar Pichai and YouTube CEO Neal Mohan.

Other political figures featured include Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, alongside global leaders in health, finance, and multilateral institutions.

Analysts say Dangote’s inclusion carries strong symbolic significance for Africa, particularly at a time of economic restructuring and renewed calls for industrialisation and self-sufficiency across the continent. His multi-billion-dollar refinery project, in particular, is seen as a strategic asset aimed at reducing Nigeria’s reliance on imported refined petroleum products, boosting local production, and creating thousands of jobs.

The recognition also reinforces Dangote’s global reputation as a leading figure in African entrepreneurship, with his business empire spanning critical sectors of the economy and influencing industrial policy conversations across the region.

The TIME100 announcement precedes the annual TIME100 Summit scheduled for April 22 in New York, where selected honourees are expected to participate in discussions on global leadership and innovation.

The full list and tributes are available via TIME Magazine’s official platforms.

Dangote Named Only Nigerian on TIME100 2026 Global Influence Ranking

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Experts Reject World Bank Fuel Import Advice, Warn of Economic Setback for Nigeria

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World Bank

Experts Reject World Bank Fuel Import Advice, Warn of Economic Setback for Nigeria

Energy experts have strongly criticised recent recommendations attributed to the World Bank urging Nigeria to deepen fuel importation and further liberalise its downstream petroleum sector, warning that the proposal is economically risky, poorly timed, and inconsistent with Nigeria’s petroleum law.

The criticism comes amid growing debate over the findings of the World Bank’s latest Nigeria Development Update, which some stakeholders say suggests a return to higher fuel import dependence as part of broader market reforms aimed at stabilising prices and improving efficiency.

However, energy economist Prof. Ken Ife faulted the recommendation, arguing that it contradicts Nigeria’s long-term goal of energy self-sufficiency and undermines ongoing investments in domestic refining capacity.

“You cannot advise a country struggling to achieve economic self-reliance to return to fuel importation,” Ife said, warning that such a policy shift would reverse gains made under the Petroleum Industry framework.

He stressed that the proposal runs counter to the provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act, particularly the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation, which prioritises crude allocation to local refineries to support domestic production.

According to him, abandoning this structure would weaken Nigeria’s refining ambitions, increase exposure to global oil shocks, and worsen pressure on foreign exchange reserves.

“We are building capacity that could exceed domestic demand. Reversing course now would discourage investors and destabilise the downstream sector,” he added.

Ife further questioned the empirical basis of the recommendation, describing it as inconsistent with the broader analytical strength of the World Bank report.

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Other energy analysts echoed similar concerns, arguing that Nigeria is already at a critical stage of expanding domestic refining, including private-sector-led investments that are expected to reduce dependence on imported petrol in the coming years.

Energy analyst Kelvin Emmanuel also criticised the proposal, insisting that it is disconnected from current global pricing realities and supply chain risks.

He argued that landing imported petrol in Nigeria is already significantly expensive when freight, insurance, and exchange rate factors are considered, making large-scale import reliance economically unsustainable.

Emmanuel further noted that rising crude oil prices—driven partly by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East—have pushed global energy markets into volatility, reinforcing the need for domestic refining resilience rather than import dependence.

He also disputed claims that imported fuel could be cheaper than locally refined products, arguing that such assumptions ignore structural cost realities in the global supply chain.

On inflation and fuel pricing, Emmanuel maintained that Nigeria’s challenges are linked more to policy implementation gaps than production shortages, particularly in crude allocation to local refineries as outlined in the Petroleum Industry Act.

“If domestic supply obligations are properly enforced, price stability will improve and market volatility will reduce,” he said.

He also criticised proposals suggesting that Nigeria should expand social safety nets through borrowing, arguing that such measures could worsen fiscal pressure and contradict responsible debt management principles.

While acknowledging that social protection is important, he insisted that funding should prioritise grants or targeted revenue sources rather than additional debt obligations.

The debate highlights growing tension between international policy advice and Nigeria’s domestic energy strategy at a time when the country is attempting to stabilise fuel supply, reduce import dependence, and strengthen local refining capacity.

Industry observers say the outcome of this policy direction could significantly shape Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector, foreign exchange stability, and long-term energy security.

Experts Reject World Bank Fuel Import Advice, Warn of Economic Setback for Nigeria

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