CBN gov’s claim on Buhari printing N35tn not correct – ex-President’s aide

A former aide to President Muhammadu Buhari has pushed back against claims made by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor, Yemi Cardoso, regarding the mismanagement of the economy during Buhari’s administration, particularly between 2015 and 2023.

The aide challenged the CBN governor’s assertion that N35 trillion was printed during Buhari’s tenure, clarifying that the actual figure was closer to N7.5 trillion.

The dispute arose following the release of new data by the CBN, which showed a significant increase in Nigeria’s money supply, rising by 14.22% to N107.1 trillion between January and August 2024, compared to N93.77 trillion in January of the same year.

At a recent press briefing held after the September meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in Abuja, Cardoso had stated, “In 2015, the money supply was about N19 trillion. By 2023, it had surged to N54 trillion. That’s a huge increase, and a substantial portion of that came through the Ways and Means financing.”

Cardoso explained that the N35 trillion printed over the period had resulted in excessive liquidity, with too much money chasing the same volume of goods, contributing to inflationary pressures.

The “Ways and Means” mechanism refers to the process by which the CBN lends money to the government. Cardoso noted that this type of funding was not supported by corresponding economic growth, leading to an oversupply of naira in the economy, which diminished its value.

However, Buhari’s aide, who chose to remain anonymous due to lack of authorization to speak on the matter, refuted Cardoso’s figures. The aide contended that during the eight-year period, the CBN had provided only N7.5 trillion in Ways and Means advances.

“The numbers being cited are simply not correct. When the acting Governor of the Central Bank was in office, the National Assembly summoned the CBN to provide accurate figures. The total sum of Ways and Means advances during Buhari’s tenure did not exceed N7.5 trillion,” he said.

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Citing a report from The Cable, the aide emphasized that the National Assembly had been expected to release a comprehensive report on the matter but had not yet done so. “The last we heard, they promised to release the report in September. The central bank’s official records support our figure of N7.5 trillion,” he added.

To back his claim, the aide referenced a letter addressed to the Senate Majority Leader by the CBN on January 16, 2023. The letter, which responded to inquiries from the Senate’s Special Committee on Ways and Means, detailed the figures involved.

The letter stated, “The balance of the Treasury Sub-Treasury Account as of December 19, 2022, was -22,719,7033,774,306.90. This account is the designated account for granting overdraft facilities to the Federal Government. We have attached a summary page that details the Ways and Means granted between 2015 and 2022 as Appendix 3.”

The Buhari administration grappled with numerous fiscal challenges between 2015 and 2023, including a drop in global oil prices and a reduction in oil revenue. To manage these difficulties, the government increasingly relied on the CBN to fund its expenditures, printing trillions of naira in the process.

Both Cardoso and Finance Minister Wale Edun have attributed the inflationary pressures and the weakened naira to this money printing, which was not accompanied by productivity growth, making basic goods and services more expensive for Nigerians.

Efforts to reach the CBN and other government officials for a response to the aide’s remarks were unsuccessful as of the time of filing this report.

Surge in Money Supply
Meanwhile, the CBN’s recent figures show that the money supply in the economy has surged by 14.22% from N93.77 trillion in January to N107.1 trillion in August 2024. Month-on-month, there was a 0.75% increase, rising from N106.3 trillion in July, while year-on-year, the supply increased by 65% from N64.8 trillion in August 2023.

Money supply (M2), which includes currency outside banks, narrow money, demand deposits, and quasi-money, reflects the growing liquidity in the Nigerian economy. In August 2024, currency outside banks was reported at N3.8 trillion, demand deposits at N31 trillion, and quasi-money surged to N72.2 trillion.

This increase in liquidity presents a challenge for the CBN’s Monetary Policy Committee as it seeks to balance economic growth with inflation control.

CBN gov’s claim on Buhari printing N35tn not correct – ex-President’s aide

(PUNCH)

Details of observers damning reports on Edo gov election

Controversy has expectedly continued to trail the Edo governorship election which saw the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declaring Senator Monday Okpebolo of the All Progressives Congress (APC) the winner.

The results have been defended by the party that won and their sympathizers, but vigorously challenged by the two other candidates in the poll – Dr Asue Ighodalo of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Mr Olumide Akpata of the Labour Party (LP) – as well as their supporters. In this package, Sunday Vanguard publishes the verbatim reports of two observer groups to the election. Yiaga Africa’s report is signed by Dr. Aisha Abdullahi, Chair of the 2024 Edo Election Mission, and Samson Itodo, Executive Director, while Andrew Mamedu, Country Director, signed for ActionAid Nigeria.

Election failed integrity test/standards – Yiaga Africa, highlights inconsistencies in results

Introduction

On Saturday, September 21, 2024, Yiaga Africa deployed the Process and Results Verification for Transparency (PRVT) methodology to observe the Edo State governorship election.

This involved 300 stationary and 25 roving observers, covering a representative sample of polling units across all 18 LGAs.

The PRVT enables Yiaga Africa to independently assess the quality of Election Day processes and verify the accuracy of the official election results as announced by INEC.

Yiaga Africa observers also deployed to the state and LGA results collation centers to observe the process, ensuring timely and accurate reporting of the election process. Yiaga Africa has successfully deployed this methodology in two presidential elections and sixteen off-cycle governorship elections.

Yiaga Africa’s Election Day situation analysis statement highlighted logistical challenges that led to delays in the commencement of accreditation and voting at various polling units across the state. Inadequate planning in the supply of vehicles for transporting ad hoc officials and election materials, along with the absence of accompanying security personnel, further exacerbated the delays.

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Yiaga Africa also condemns acts of violence and disruption of voting and results collation process by political thugs and hoodlums, particularly violence directed at voters and election officials.
These unwholesome acts undermine the integrity of the elections.

Yiaga Africa extends its sympathies to citizens and polling officials who suffered severe injuries and loss of valuable properties due to these attacks and violence.

Yiaga Africa calls on security agencies to thoroughly investigate these cases of attacks and intimidation against voters and polling officials.

INEC’s official results

Yiaga Africa’s estimates are based on official results announced at the polling unit from a representative random sample of polling units.

As highlighted in our pre-election report, Yiaga Africa will, amongst other factors, consider the quality of Election Day processes in assessing whether the 2024 Edo governorship satisfies the electoral integrity test.

In this regard, Yiaga Africa considered the integrity of accreditation, voting, counting, and collation of results.

INEC consistently applied its guidelines in managing the accreditation and voting process in a significant number of polling units.

Despite some isolated incidents of inadequate election materials, the BVAS machines functioned optimally, and all voters in the queue by 2:30pm were allowed to vote, despite the late opening of polls.
The polling officials uploaded polling unit results on the IReV in a timely manner, making it possible for citizens to access polling unit level results.

However, the incidents of results manipulation and disruptions during ward and local government collation in Ikpoba/Okha, Etsako West, Egor and Oredo LGAs, including intimidation of INEC officials, observers and party agents and the collation of results, contrary to the provisions of the Electoral Act and INEC guidelines, severely undermine the credibility of the election results.

Inconsistencies

Based on reports received from the sampled polling units, Yiaga Africa can project the expected vote shares for each party within a narrow margin. However, Yiaga Africa is only able to verify the election outcome if it falls within its estimated margins.

If the official results do not fall within Yiaga Africa’s estimated ranges, then the results may have been manipulated.

According to INEC, the All Progressives Congress (APC) received 51.1% of the votes, People’s Democratic Party (PDP) 43.3% of the votes, and the Labor Party garnered 4.0% of the votes.

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Based on reports from 287 of 300 (96%) sampled polling units, Yiaga Africa’s statistical analysis shows inconsistencies in the official results announced by INEC.

For instance, the official results announced by INEC for APC in Oredo and Egor, LGAs fall outside the PRVT estimate.

In Esan West LGA, the official results for PDP fall outside the PRVT estimates.
Also, in Oredo LGA, the official results as announced for LP fall outside the PRVT estimates.
These inconsistencies with Yiaga Africa’s PRVT estimates indicate that the results were altered at the level of collation.

The disparities between the official results released by INEC and Yiaga Africa’s PRVT estimates indicate manipulation of results during the collation process.

Yiaga Africa strongly condemns the actions of some biased INEC officials who altered figures during collation including the actions of some security officials who interfered with the collation process. Yiaga Africa notes that the cases of disruption in Ikpoba/Okha, Etsako West, Egor, and Oredo LGAs in the course of collation created opportunities for election manipulation, raising significant concerns about the credibility and integrity of the results collation process.

Turnout Estimates

INEC’s turnout and rejected ballots for the 18 LGA released are consistent with Yiaga Africa WTV PRVT estimates.
Yiaga Africa is able to estimate that turnout is between 20.9% and 24.1% (22.5% ± 1.6%), while INEC’s official result is 22.4%.
Similarly, Yiaga Africa estimates for rejected ballots are between 2.2% and 3.2% (2.7% ± 0.5%).
Yiaga Africa notes that in terms of turnout, voters did not meet the resilience test as voter turnout plummeted despite high PVC collection rates recorded for the governorship election.

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In this election, only 22.4% of the voters turned out to exercise their civic rights, lower than the 27% turnout observed in 2020.
Nevertheless, Yiaga Africa commends the resilience of the voters who turned out despite the rain and voting delays, staying back to fulfill their civic duties.

Recommendations

1. Yiaga Africa calls for the immediate investigation and prosecution of polling officials and collation officers who are engaged in results manipulation and flagrant violations of the guidelines on results collation.
2. Yiaga Africa calls on INEC to urgently clarify the inconsistencies in some of the results, especially election results from Oredo, Egor, Esan West and LGAs.
3. INEC should issue detailed guidelines for exercising its powers to review declarations and returns made contrary to provisions of the Electoral Act and regulations and guidelines. This should include procedures for receiving complaints, timeframe, format and who is eligible to submit complaints.
4. It is imperative to integrate the IReV and electronic transmission of results into the electoral legal framework to confer legality on polling unit level results uploaded on the portal. To this end, the National Assembly should expeditiously amend the Electoral Act to make electronic transmission of results mandatory.

Conclusion

As noted in our pre-election reports, Yiaga Africa emphasized that the 2024 Edo governorship election would be assessed against three key parameters: the resilience test, impartiality test, and integrity test.
On the resilience test, despite early warnings of potential violence and adverse weather conditions, voter turnout was low.

While voters were given the opportunity to exercise their rights, many chose not to participate, resulting in a partial failure of the resilience test. Nevertheless, Yiaga Africa commends the resilience and patience of voters who did turn out, particularly in the face of logistical challenges and rainfall that caused late opening of polls.

On the impartiality test, Yiaga Africa monitored the role of security agencies and their engagement with the process.

Details of observers damning reports on Edo gov election

Vanguard

BREAKING: FG declares Tuesday public holiday to celebrate 64th Independence

The Federal Government has declared Tuesday, 1st of October 2024, as a public holiday to commemorate the Nation’s 64th Independence Day Anniversary.

The Minister of Interior, Dr. Olubunmi Tunji-Ojo, who made the declaration on behalf of the Federal Government, congratulated Nigerians at home and abroad on this occasion.

In a statement signed Saturday in Abuja, by the Ministry’s Permanent Secretary, Dr. Magdalene Ajani, the minister praised the patient and hardworking Nigerian men and women, stating that their sacrifices will not be in vain.

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Aligning himself with the theme for the Anniversary, the Minister reiterated the need for Nigerians to reflect on the labour of our heroes past and be inspired for the tasks ahead, realizing that a Nigeria of our dream can only be built when we unite.

While wishing Nigerians a Happy Independence Day Anniversary, Dr. Tunji-Ojo urged the citizens to continue to be steadfast in nation-building.

BREAKING: FG declares Tuesday public holiday to celebrate 64th Independence