Imported Petrol 12% Cheaper Than Dangote Fuel – World Bank

The World Bank has revealed that imported Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) is currently about 12 per cent cheaper than petrol supplied by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, raising concerns over pricing distortions and rising inflationary pressures in Nigeria’s economy.

The disclosure was contained in the Bank’s latest Nigeria Development Update, which highlighted widening gaps between import parity prices and locally refined fuel costs amid volatile global oil market conditions. According to the report, Dangote refinery’s ex-depot price stood at about ₦1,275 per litre as of March 2026, compared to an estimated ₦1,122 per litre for imported petrol, creating a significant price advantage for imports.

Despite the report, Dangote refinery has denied any recent increase in petrol prices, maintaining that its current pricing structure remains unchanged. A source within the company stated that the gantry price is fixed at ₦1,200 per litre, while the coastal price stands at ₦1,153 per litre, stressing that no new pricing has been introduced. The refinery reiterated its commitment to ensuring steady fuel supply across Nigeria and other African markets, positioning itself as a stabilising force in the downstream sector.

The World Bank noted that the price disparity persists even as Dangote refinery has become a dominant supplier of petrol in Nigeria, particularly following the halt in fuel import licences earlier in 2026. According to analysts, this situation reflects structural inefficiencies in the domestic fuel market, including foreign exchange pressures, logistics costs, and crude pricing mechanisms.

The report warned that rising global crude oil prices—driven by geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East—could worsen inflationary pressures if sustained. It projected that an increase in oil prices to about $80 per barrel could add roughly 3.1 percentage points to Nigeria’s headline inflation, assuming full pass-through to domestic fuel prices.

The Bank explained that energy costs serve as a major inflation transmission channel, with transport alone accounting for about 10.1 per cent of Nigeria’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). Higher fuel prices, therefore, have a multiplier effect, increasing costs across transportation, food distribution, and other sectors of the economy.

Beyond fuel, the report highlighted additional risks from rising global food and fertiliser prices, which are also being influenced by the same geopolitical disruptions affecting oil markets. This combination, the Bank warned, could further strain household incomes and worsen cost-of-living pressures.

Speaking during the report presentation in Abuja, the World Bank Country Director for Nigeria, Mathew Verghis, acknowledged improvements in Nigeria’s macroeconomic outlook through 2025 and early 2026, driven by ongoing reforms. However, he cautioned that external shocks remain a major threat to price stability, particularly through rising energy and shipping costs.

Similarly, the World Bank’s Lead Economist for Nigeria, Fiseha Haile, noted that increases in petrol prices have already filtered through transport and logistics chains, amplifying cost pressures across multiple sectors. He also pointed to ongoing vulnerabilities, including volatile global financing conditions and weaker capital inflows, despite improvements in Nigeria’s external reserves and exchange rate reforms.

Meanwhile, global oil prices have recently declined sharply following a ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran, easing immediate supply concerns. Benchmark Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate crude recorded their steepest one-day drops since 2020, falling to around $93 per barrel after the announcement by Donald Trump that both countries had agreed to a temporary truce and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Despite this easing, the World Bank maintained that Nigeria’s economy remains highly exposed to global oil market volatility, warning that sustained uncertainties could continue to pressure inflation, fuel prices, and household welfare in the months ahead.

Imported Petrol 12% Cheaper Than Dangote Fuel – World Bank

Oil Prices Drop 14% as Bonny Light Falls to $94.41 on US-Iran Ceasefire

The price of Nigeria’s Bonny Light crude has plunged by 14.2 per cent to $94.41 per barrel, down from $110 per barrel recorded earlier in the week, following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire by Donald Trump between the United States and Iran.

The sharp decline reflects easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after Iran signalled readiness to guarantee safe passage for oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical corridor that handles a significant share of global crude shipments. The development has reduced fears of supply disruptions that had previously driven oil prices above the $100 mark.

Global benchmarks also recorded notable declines, with Brent crude falling to about $94 per barrel from around $100, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped significantly as traders reacted to improved supply outlook and reduced risk premiums. Market analysts describe the trend as a “geopolitical relief drop”, driven by renewed confidence in oil supply stability.

In addition, reports indicate that the United States has relaxed sanctions on Iranian and Russian oil exports, allowing more crude to flow into the global market. This move has further contributed to downward pressure on prices by increasing supply at a time when demand growth remains moderate.

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Further weighing on prices, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 3.1 million barrel increase in crude oil inventories, bringing total commercial stockpiles to 464.7 million barrels, about two per cent above the five-year seasonal average. The rise in inventories signals ample supply in the market, reinforcing bearish sentiment among traders.

Speaking on the development, the Chief Executive Officer of PetroleumPrice.ng, Olatide Jeremiah, said the drop in crude prices is expected to reduce operational costs for refiners globally. According to him, if the trend persists, it could lead to lower prices of refined petroleum products, including Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), offering relief to motorists and transport operators facing high fuel and transportation costs.

“The drop in crude oil prices will reduce the cost of operations for refiners worldwide. If sustained, consumers should expect lower fuel prices,” he said.

However, he cautioned that Nigeria’s government revenue may decline due to lower oil prices, given the country’s reliance on crude exports. He noted, though, that the impact may be limited since the 2026 budget benchmark of $64.85 per barrel remains well below current market prices.

Nigeria’s 2026 fiscal framework is based on 1.84 million barrels per day production, an oil price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel, and an exchange rate of ₦1,400 to the US dollar, suggesting that the current price level still provides a buffer above budget projections.

Analysts say while the current drop offers short-term relief for consumers and energy markets, the outlook remains uncertain, as oil prices could rebound if geopolitical tensions resurface or if the ceasefire agreement collapses.

Oil Prices Drop 14% as Bonny Light Falls to $94.41 on US-Iran Ceasefire

Fuel Relief: Dangote Reverses Petrol Price Hike, Drops PMS to ₦1,200

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals has reversed its recent petrol price increase, reducing the ex‑gantry price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) — commonly known as petrol — to ₦1,200 per litre amid a sharp decline in global crude oil prices triggered by easing geopolitical tensions.

The adjustment marks a ₦75 reduction from the previous price of ₦1,275 per litre, which had been introduced only days earlier due to rising crude oil benchmarks. A senior refinery official confirmed the rollback, noting that international oil market fluctuations directly influence domestic fuel pricing.

“The adjustment aligns with global market trends,” the official said, adding that geopolitical developments in the Middle East, including a temporary ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran, contributed to the drop in crude oil prices. Brent crude fell by 13.28% to $94.76 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate dropped by 14.72% to $96.31 per barrel, easing pressure on domestic fuel costs.

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In a statement, the refinery clarified that no new petrol price increase has been implemented, confirming that the gantry price remains at ₦1,200 per litre and the coastal price at ₦1,153 per litre. The company assured the public of its commitment to steady fuel supply across domestic and regional markets.

The reduction comes amid ongoing volatility in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector, influenced by foreign exchange fluctuations, supply chain challenges, and global oil price swings. The Dangote refinery, which began operations in September 2024, has become a dominant player in Nigeria’s fuel market, significantly affecting pricing and supply patterns nationwide.

Analysts note that while the rollback is welcomed by consumers, retail petrol prices may still vary depending on how quickly marketers adjust pump prices, distribution logistics, and exchange rate considerations. The refinery’s responsiveness underscores the integration of Nigeria’s fuel pricing with international market realities following deregulation of the downstream sector.

Fuel Relief: Dangote Reverses Petrol Price Hike, Drops PMS to ₦1,200