Tinubu won’t get second term if El-Rufai can mobilise northerners for Obi – Dahiru

Political analyst and columnist Majeed Dahiru has said that President Bola Tinubu’s administration may end in 2027.

This, he said, was dependent on how former Kaduna State governor Nasir El-Rufai successfully rallies northern political forces behind Labour Party’s Peter Obi.

Dahiru spoke during an appearance on The Morning Brief of the Channels Television, discussing recent opposition alignments and El-Rufai’s strategic relevance ahead of the next general election.

“If I may put it straight. The day El-Rufai decides and can galvanise the opinion moulders in the North to zero in on Peter Obi, for instance, as the candidate, that will be the end of the Tinubu administration,” Dahiru stated.

This came amid ongoing conversations about potential coalitions to unseat the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). The situation took a new turn on Wednesday when Delta State Governor Sheriff Oborevwori, Deputy Governor Monday Onyeme, and former Governor Ifeanyi Okowa, alongside several PDP officials, defected to the APC.

Dahiru noted the reported resistance from PDP governors to opposition coalition efforts, attributing it to regional loyalty.

“That’s because the PDP governors’ preferred candidate for the next election is President Bola Tinubu of the APC — because of southern solidarity. The bulk of the PDP governors are from the South. One of their own is in power. They can’t work against one of their own. It’s not possible.”

He cited historical examples to underscore the role of regional interests in Nigerian politics.

“In 2003, the AD (Alliance for Democracy) didn’t field a presidential candidate because of Obasanjo. That is the nature of Nigerian politics.

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“When Yar’Adua became president in 2007, a number of ANPP (All Nigeria Peoples Party) governors moved to the PDP. Two governors even married his daughters to gain a footing in the PDP. It has always been like that.”

Dahiru also addressed El-Rufai’s recent departure from the APC to the Social Democratic Party (SDP), attributing it to deeper tensions with the presidency.

“El-Rufai has a grouse against the president — a legitimate grouse — because he worked for the president. Hate him or love him, he has a basis to be angry,” he said.

“He has been working assiduously to undermine the president, particularly in the Muslim North, where he is like the caliph to Buhari. He’s the brainbox of the Muslim North.”

He hinted at a broader political strategy by El-Rufai, possibly involving an endorsement of a candidate from the South, especially the Southeast.

“Let me give him a tip: if he really wants to sit at the back of the president, what he should do — and I think they may already be on that path — is convince the Muslim North to look towards the South for a candidate. Specifically, the Southeast.

“If he’s able to do that — and I know he can; he has the capacity — to shift support to someone like Peter Obi, then that will be the end of the Tinubu administration.”

Tinubu won’t get second term if El-Rufai can mobilise northerners for Obi – Dahiru

PDP will come out stronger, Saraki reacts to Okowa, Delta gov defection

Former Senate President Dr Abubakar Bukola Saraki has dismissed recent high-profile defections from the Delta State chapter of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), claiming there is no need for concern and that the party is entering a period of rebirth and reconstruction.

In a statement on his X, Saraki said, “Following the development in the Delta State Chapter of our party, I have been inundated with phone calls from leaders and members of our party as well as various youths who have been active in promoting democracy and good governance in our country.”

Speaking directly on the defection of top party leaders, he said, “My view is that those who want to leave the PDP should leave now and let the rest of us who want to stay concentrate on rebuilding the party and refocusing it to play the role of a viable opposition that will provide a better alternative for the good people of Nigeria.”

Saraki highlighted the need for a robust opposition in Nigeria’s democratic space, warning against the danger of one-party dominance.

“To sustain democracy, there must be viable choices for people at every point. Also, there must be a viable opposition to keep people’s hope alive and create credible alternatives to keep the government on its toes.”

“A one-party state, as being disingenuously designed by some people, will not augur well for a multi-ethnic, multi-lingual, multi-cultural, multi-religious, and highly diversified society like ours. It is even more dangerous when we eliminate alternatives and make people hopeless.”

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“It is in the interest of Nigeria and the survival of our democracy for the opposition to be vibrant and strong enough with the capacity to replace the ruling party at any point.”

The PDP chieftain described the current situation as a moment of clarity for the party, saying, “Those who want to leave the party should go and let those of us remaining have a clear view of who we are talking to and where their political loyalty lies.”

“All we need is for those who want to stay back in PDP to show commitment, and we can all work to rebuild the party.”

Speaking on recent developments, he said, “This development has vindicated the stance of people like me who have decided to remain silent and watch events unfold. I have seen that there was no sincerity with supposed leaders of the opposition. One was not sure of the next person one was talking to.”

Saraki called for perspective and patience, saying, “The sustenance of democracy is not a sprint. Rather, it is a marathon. It is not a knockout football match series. It is a league. 24 hours is a long time in politics, and nobody can predict how the dynamics will evolve in the coming weeks and months.”

“PDP members across the country should not be discouraged, disillusioned, disappointed, or demoralised by the development in Delta State. We should stay strong and focus on strengthening the party. It is not necessary at this point to lament why they left.”

He warned against externalising blame, “Our party members should also refrain from blaming our woes on the ruling party. That would be a lazy approach. They are playing politics to win elections. It is our responsibility as party members to ignore their antics and seize the moment and momentum to make our party stronger and better.”

Commenting on the defection of Delta’s governor Sheriff Oborevwori and his deputy, Saraki noted, “Yes, it is unbecoming and shocking for the running mate to the standard bearer of a leading party to abandon ship to join the ruling party. This is unprecedented, and nobody should try to justify such an act with talk of being put under pressure. It is simply a sign of how low we have sunk as a polity.”

Saraki also stressed the need for institutional integrity over personalities: “These developments in the polity are the reason why I have always canvassed the idea that we should emphasise building and strengthening our institutions and not individuals.”

Amid the current setbacks, Saraki remains optimistic about PDP’s chances: “With the defection of the governor of Delta State, even if the party has only ten governors in its fold, the PDP is still in a good position to win the next round of elections.”

“The PDP is better with fewer members who are loyal, sincere, determined, dedicated, and committed to its ideas, ideals, and progress than to have so many who will identify with us in the afternoon and be romancing the ruling party in the night.”

Furthermore, Saraki added that the two years remaining before the next general election is ample time to reposition the party: “That is a long time in politics. We have enough time to brace up to the challenge. There is nothing that prevents us from getting some governors from the other parties to join our ranks.”

Saraki appealed to the youth and women of the party, saying, “My appeal to our young party members is that this defection is just a mere challenge to us to further mobilise and put our house in order. Also, our women’s wing should seize the opportunity to help in the rebuilding mission.”

“The PDP will come out stronger from this development.”

“I am very sure the various leadership organs of our party will soon make public their reaction to this development and convey the necessary meetings to strategise on how to strongly and strategically respond to it. Therefore, there is no cause for alarm.”

“Our party members should not lose focus, hope, or the determination to win. We should see the current development as a challenge to rebuild and refocus the party. Tomorrow is very bright,” Saraki added.

PDP will come out stronger, Saraki reacts to Okowa, Delta gov defection

LP: Abure, Oti flex muscles as INEC studies Supreme Court judgment

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has not taken any decision concerning the leadership of the Labour Party after a recent Supreme Court judgement.

INEC sources confirmed that the commission was still reviewing the court’s judgment.

“No decision has been made yet on the Supreme Court judgment of the Labour Party,” an official said anonymously.

Another official stated that a decision would only be taken after INEC had studied the Certified True Copy of the judgment.

“The commission needs to obtain a Certified True Copy of the Supreme Court judgement, study it carefully to determine what the court intended, before arriving at an informed decision,” the official said.

The Supreme Court on April 4, 2025 overturned an earlier ruling by the Court of Appeal that had recognised Julius Abure as the National Chairman of the Labour Party.

The apex court ruled that the appeal court lacked jurisdiction over internal party matters.

However, the Supreme Court’s decision was interpreted differently, with Abure claiming that the court did not remove him from office, while the LP Caretaker Committee, led by Nenadi Usman, claimed that Abure was fired.

At the same time, Lamidi Apapa, the party’s splinter leader, emerged to claim leadership.

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On April 9, an LP team led by Abia State Governor Dr. Alex Otti and the party’s presidential candidate for 2023, Peter Obi, visited INEC headquarters in Abuja to clarify the leadership position.

During the visit, Otti handed a Certified True Copy of the Supreme Court’s verdict to the electoral authority.

The visit intended to shed light on the party’s leadership and guarantee effective communication with INEC.

The group was met by INEC National Commissioner Sam Olumekun and other senior commission officials.

During the discussion, participants discussed ways to increase collaboration between INEC and the Labour Party, with a focus on safeguarding democratic values.

Olumekun underlined the commission’s commitment to impartiality, transparency, and the rule of law in carrying out its mandate.

Meanwhile, Abure claimed on Thursday that he is still the legitimate Labour Party National Chairman.

Abure issued a warning to Otti and Obi to heed the Supreme Court judgment.

Speaking through LP National Publicity Secretary, Obiora Ifoh, at a media briefing in Abuja on Thursday, Abure said, “The position of the Labour Party after critically reviewing the Supreme Court judgment delivered on the 4th of April 2025 stated as follows: The Supreme Court, contrary to speculations, actually reaffirmed the National Convention of the Party held on the 27th of March 2024 at Nnewi.

“The reason for the non-justiciability of internal disputes of a political party is simple, and in the eyes of the law, a political party is a corporate entity with its constitution, rules, regulations, and guidelines which are binding on members who had joined freely have consented to be so bound (See Abegunde Vs. Ondo State House of Assembly & Ors. (2015) LPELR-24588 (SC).

“Consequently, we admonished Alex Otti, the Governor of Abia State, and Peter Obi, former presidential Candidate of our party in the 2023 General Election, who are the protagonists of the current division in the Party, to hear the Supreme Court loud and clear.”

He insisted that before the contentious National Convention, the Labour Party fulfilled all legal requirements in line with the LP Constitution, Electoral Act, and the 1999 Constitution.
According to Abure, those insisting their tenure has expired probably misinterpreted the judgment.

“The Supreme Court admonished party members to respect the Constitution of their party when it stated thus; Political Parties have put in place diverse kinds of internal dispute resolution mechanisms to handle any matter arising from disputes among members.

“Political parties and their members should, therefore, have faith in the internal dispute resolution mechanisms prescribed in their party constitution,” he stated.

LP: Abure, Oti flex muscles as INEC studies Supreme Court judgment