Politics
Fitch, a leading global rating company tipped Tinubu to win 2023 presidential poll
Presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, has been tipped to win Nigeria’s 2023 election.
The prediction was contained in a report by Fitch, a leading global rating company in the world.
Fitch in the report maintained that “Tinubu is the candidate most likely to win the presidential election as a split opposition vote will favour the All Progressives Congress.”
The report also disclosed that earlier surveys showing that Obi was ahead of his opponents, Bola Tinubu (All Progressives Congress (APC) and Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), were mostly based on responses gathered online.
The report stated further that since only 36.0% of Nigerians use the internet (World Bank, 2020), “we believe that these results are skewed towards urban, affluent voters who are most likely to support Obi. We also highlight that these polls suggest that a large share of voters remain undecided.
“Even if these surveys were accurate at a national level, Obi’s lack of support in Nigeria’s Muslim-majority North would make it difficult for him to win next year’s election. Indeed, the North is home to the majority of all voters and turnout in this part of the country tends to be relatively high, underscoring the importance of the Northern electorate.
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“According to Nigeria’s 1999 constitution, a candidate can only be elected if they both receive the majority of overall votes and over 25.0% of votes in at least 24 of the country’s 36 states. Given that Obi’s Labour Party has limited infrastructure in the North, he will struggle to meet this second voting requirement.
Fitch added that Peter Obi is unlikely to win the presidential election.
It said, “While we believe Obi is unlikely to win the election, he will probably do well for a third-party candidate. Indeed, a third-party candidate has never reached more than 7.5% of votes in Nigeria. However, due to his frugal reputation and large social media following, we expect Obi to get a higher share of the vote than previous third-party candidates.
“As such, we believe that Obi’s popularity will most likely split the opposition vote, at the expense of the PDP. The PDP’s candidate (Atiku Abubakar) is a Northerner and we believe that the party’s only route to victory is expanding its vote in the South West and North Central states while retaining large majorities in the Southsouth and Southeast.
“However, given Obi’s popularity in the south – especially the Southsouth and Southeast – we believe it is unlikely the main opposition party will be able to gain more votes in these parts of the country.
“Protests and social discontent are likely to increase in the aftermath of a Tinubu win. Since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, there has been an informal agreement that resulted in the presidency alternating between Northern and Southern states as well as between Christians and Muslims.”
Sun
Politics
Atiku says he’s not sure about contesting 2027 presidential election
Atiku says he’s not sure about contesting 2027 presidential election
Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has said that he does not know if he will contest the presidency in 2027.
Atiku made the remark in a yet-to-be-aired interview for a television show, Untold Stories, with Adesuwa Giwa-Osagie, scheduled for broadcast today but exclusively obtained by Daily Trust.
The former presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) recently announced the formation of a coalition of opposition leaders to wrest power from President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2027.
However, there has been widespread speculation about who will lead the coalition and emerge as its presidential candidate, with former Labour Party presidential candidate, Peter Obi and former Kaduna State governor, Nasir El-Rufai, being considered among its key figures.
When asked if he would be running for the presidency in 2027, Atiku said: “I don’t know because there has to be, first of all, a viable platform, more than any other time in the political history of this country, particularly since the return of democracy.”
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Atiku, who has run for the presidency a record six times, did not rule out the possibility of contesting again in 2027.
“I have not seen Nigeria in dire need of, you know, an experienced and credible leadership than this time.
“We had a similar, you know, what would I say, merger in 2014. About four of us or is it three? We all ran for president and one of us emerged, and we all supported the one who emerged, and he won,” he said.
He agreed with former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s assertion that Nigeria’s democracy is deteriorating, saying the situation is “very dire.”
“No doubt about that,” he said.
Atiku also expressed his disappointment with the country’s political leadership.
“The next generation after me, many of them had been governors, had been senators. Instead of me to see an improvement in the level of governance at the state level and so on and so forth, I don’t see it. So I feel a little bit distressed.”
Atiku also questioned the credibility of the current legislative leadership, especially as it relates to the National Assembly’s ratification of the state of emergency in Rivers State
“I am not surprised,” he said, alleging that they are corrupt.
Atiku says he’s not sure about contesting 2027 presidential election
Politics
Africa’s democracy is govt by small for small number of people – Obasanjo
Africa’s democracy is govt by small for small number of people – Obasanjo
Former President Olusegun Obasanjo has advanced reasons for what he called abysmal failure of democracy in Africa.
According to him, African presidents work with a clique and wield enormous powers with little or no resistance from perpetuating illegalities and abuse of office.
The ex-President said the democracy being practised in Africa does not aligned with the people’s values, culture, and way of life.
Obasanjo said spoke on Monday at a colloquium in Abuja to mark the 60th birthday of Emeka Ihedioha, a former governor of Imo State.
The former Nigerian leader, who chaired the event, referencing Abraham Lincoln’s definition of democracy as “government of the people, by the people, for the people,” said the system should work for all citizens rather than a privileged few.
He however wondered if African countries are practising true democracy or only adopting Western Liberal democracy.
He said, “If you are talking about democracy failing in Africa, democracy in Africa has failed. And why has it failed?
“Because in context and in content, it is not Africa. It does not have any aspect of our culture, our way of life, what we stand for, what we believe.
“Today, we have democracy, which is the government of a small number of people, by a small number of people over a large number of people who are deprived of what they need to have in life. That is not democracy that will endure.
“It is ‘I am because I can grab.’ What sort of democracy brings you, and you grab everything and then illegally, corruptly, and you say go to court? When you know that even in the court, you cannot get justice.
“It’s not that democracy is failing, democracy is dying and if we are going to make democracy not to die, we have to look at democracy in the context and in the content of Africa. I hope that we will get to that stage so that democracy which will deliver will be the democracy that we will have in Africa.”
Obasanjo was Nigeria’s military ruler from 1976 to 1979 and democratically elected president from 1999 to 2007.
Politics
Atiku, Obi, El-Rufai’s coalition can’t unseat Tinubu – Shekarau
Atiku, Obi, El-Rufai’s coalition can’t unseat Tinubu – Shekarau
Former Kano State Governor, Ibrahim Shekarau, has cast doubt on the ability of a newly formed opposition coalition to unseat President Bola Tinubu and the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the 2027 elections.
Shekarau described the alliance, which includes former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate Peter Obi, and ex-Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai, as a gathering of individuals with personal political ambitions rather than a structured and unified opposition front.
His remarks came just two days after the coalition’s formation was announced, with the stated goal of challenging Tinubu’s administration.
In a statement by his spokesperson, Dr. Sule Yau, Shekarau remarked, “This is just a gathering of certain individuals with political ambitions; none of them has officially consulted their party leadership.”
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He further argued that a coalition featuring prominent figures does not necessarily equate to an effective political alliance.
“The coalition of opposition figures is a good development, as seen in their recent meeting under what they call an opposition alliance. However, none of the key figures involved represents their party leadership,” Shekarau stated.
Emphasizing the legal framework for political mergers, he pointed out that only registered parties could formally unite, making the recent gathering an informal arrangement rather than an officially recognized coalition.
Atiku, Obi, El-Rufai’s coalition can’t unseat Tinubu – Shekarau
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