Politics

Fitch, a leading global rating company tipped Tinubu to win 2023 presidential poll

Published

2 years ago

October 29, 2022

Presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu

Presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, has been tipped to win Nigeria’s 2023 election.

The prediction was contained in a report by Fitch, a leading global rating company in the world.

Fitch in the report maintained that “Tinubu is the candidate most likely to win the presidential election as a split opposition vote will favour the All Progressives Congress.”

The report also disclosed that earlier surveys showing that Obi was ahead of his opponents, Bola Tinubu (All Progressives Congress (APC) and Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), were mostly based on responses gathered online.

The report stated further that since only 36.0% of Nigerians use the internet (World Bank, 2020), “we believe that these results are skewed towards urban, affluent voters who are most likely to support Obi. We also highlight that these polls suggest that a large share of voters remain undecided.

“Even if these surveys were accurate at a national level, Obi’s lack of support in Nigeria’s Muslim-majority North would make it difficult for him to win next year’s election. Indeed, the North is home to the majority of all voters and turnout in this part of the country tends to be relatively high, underscoring the importance of the Northern electorate.

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“According to Nigeria’s 1999 constitution, a candidate can only be elected if they both receive the majority of overall votes and over 25.0% of votes in at least 24 of the country’s 36 states. Given that Obi’s Labour Party has limited infrastructure in the North, he will struggle to meet this second voting requirement.

Fitch added that Peter Obi is unlikely to win the presidential election.

It said, “While we believe Obi is unlikely to win the election, he will probably do well for a third-party candidate. Indeed, a third-party candidate has never reached more than 7.5% of votes in Nigeria. However, due to his frugal reputation and large social media following, we expect Obi to get a higher share of the vote than previous third-party candidates.

“As such, we believe that Obi’s popularity will most likely split the opposition vote, at the expense of the PDP. The PDP’s candidate (Atiku Abubakar) is a Northerner and we believe that the party’s only route to victory is expanding its vote in the South West and North Central states while retaining large majorities in the Southsouth and Southeast.

“However, given Obi’s popularity in the south – especially the Southsouth and Southeast – we believe it is unlikely the main opposition party will be able to gain more votes in these parts of the country.

“Indeed, we maintain our view that the APC’s Tinubu is best placed to win the presidential election. We expect that the party, which has nominated a Muslim-Muslim ticket, will repeat its strong performance in the North. Given that Tinubu is a former governor of Lagos, the party is also likely to improve on its performance in the South West. Furthermore, we expect Tinubu to benefit from incumbency advantages, with the APC having been in power since 2015.

“Protests and social discontent are likely to increase in the aftermath of a Tinubu win. Since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, there has been an informal agreement that resulted in the presidency alternating between Northern and Southern states as well as between Christians and Muslims.”

Sun

Related Topics:Featured Fitch presidential poll Tinubu

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Why I can’t form coalition with Peter Obi – Sowore

Published

2 days ago

November 13, 2024

Trends Admin

Peter Obi and Omoyele Sowore

Why I can’t form coalition with Peter Obi – Sowore

Omoyele Sowore, the African Action Congress (AAC) presidential candidate in the 2023 election, recently shared his reasons for not forming a coalition with Peter Obi, the Labour Party’s candidate in the same election.

In his appearance on the Honest Bunch podcast, Sowore asserted that, in his view, Obi is similar to other Nigerian politicians, describing him as “better at packaging.”

Sowore explained that his own journey in politics began long before Obi gained national recognition, emphasizing his dedication to advocating for systemic change in Nigeria.

During the podcast, co-hosted by Nedu, Husband Material, Deity Cole, and Ezinne, Sowore highlighted his belief in challenging the status quo, which he feels differs significantly from Obi’s approach.

Sowore said, “Before you discovered Peter Obi, I was already running for president. All these shouts about Peter Obi… He just knows how to package. Anyone can do it.

“If I form a coalition with Peter Obi, I will be going against what I have always stood for, which is that I will never support a Nigerian leader who has held any political office — whether at the federal, state, or local level — if I consider them non-performing.

“It’s the same reason I would never have joined hands with Atiku. And the Peter Obi you’re talking about was a vice-presidential candidate to Atiku when I was a presidential candidate in 2019.

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“So, what are we talking about? There is no lesser evil in my book. If you are evil, you are evil. If you are good, you are good. I have a general disdain for non-performance.”

He added that there is no such thing as “emotional attachment” in his dictionary.

“There was a friend of mine who kept saying, he doesn’t care if Peter Obi is Igbo, but that it is the turn of the Igbos. But it is beyond that; I have a natural disdain for poor performance,” he explained.

Sowore insisted that while many may not know it, he knew Obi before and during his time as governor, and he backed him.

“I had always known and supported him and stood against his removal when (Olusegun) Obasanjo wanted to use Andy Ubah to replace him—the twists and turns then.

“However, when Peter Obi finished his term in Anambra, the question I asked him was whether he could send his child to any university he had built in Anambra—he was mute and could not respond.

“I also asked him if he could enter any hospital he built in Anambra, which he governed for eight years, even if it was for the slightest headache—there was also no response.”

Sowore went on to challenge the four anchors or any other Nigerians, saying, “If they can pack their bags and head to Anambra for a vacation.”

PUNCH Online reports that President Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress recorded 8,794,726 votes in the 2023 presidential election, followed by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party who secured 6,984,520 votes.

In third place, Labour Party’s Obi garnered 6,101,533 votes, and Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party secured 1,496,687 votes.

Why I can’t form coalition with Peter Obi – Sowore

Politics

Why we want Jonathan to contest 2027 presidency – Northern group

Published

4 days ago

November 11, 2024

Trends Admin

Goodluck Ebele Jonathan

Why we want Jonathan to contest 2027 presidency – Northern group

The Arewa Consensus for Jonathan, a political group in the North, has urged former President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan to enter the 2027 presidential race.

Jonathan, who served as Nigeria’s president from 2010 to 2015, is widely regarded for his role in fostering democratic growth and his relatively peaceful exit from power after losing the 2015 election.
Despite his exit from politics, his name has remained a focal point in discussions about Nigeria’s future leadership.

The group’s leader, Munir Musa, who made the appeal during a press conference in Bauchi over the weekend, emphasised that Jonathan’s return to office was crucial to addressing Nigeria’s pressing economic and security challenges.

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He argued that Nigeria, grappling with severe economic downturns and rising security threats, needs a leader with Jonathan’s experience and competence to restore stability.

“The nation is at a crossroads, and we believe that Goodluck Jonathan is the right man to steer us out of the current malaise,” Musa told reporters.

He expressed confidence that Jonathan’s leadership could heal the country’s deepening wounds and usher in a new era of progress.

Why we want Jonathan to contest 2027 presidency – Northern group

Politics

Afenifere, Council of Obas back Aiyedatiwa for Ondo gov

Published

4 days ago

November 11, 2024

Trends Admin

Governor of Ondo State, Lucky Aiyedatiwa

Afenifere, Council of Obas back Aiyedatiwa for Ondo gov

Afenifere, the pan-Yoruba socio-political and cultural organization, has endorsed Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa, the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate for the November 16 governorship election in Ondo State.

Sehinde Arogbofa, a prominent Afenifere leader, announced the support at the Olubaka of Oka land palace, Oba Yusuf Adebori Adeleye.

Arogbofa expressed confidence in Aiyedatiwa’s leadership and encouraged him to follow the values and legacy of Chief Adekunle Ajasin, Ondo State’s first governor. “Afenifere stands firmly behind your mandate… Strive to make Ondo State great again,” Arogbofa said.

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Oba Adeleye, speaking on behalf of traditional rulers in Akoko South West Local Government Area, also endorsed Aiyedatiwa, citing his masses-focused policies and the governor’s initiative to allocate five percent of local government funds to traditional institutions as a demonstration of his commitment to their welfare.