From Obasanjo to Buhari… how FG’s debt profile surged 86.8% to N26.9trn in 21 years – Newstrends
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From Obasanjo to Buhari… how FG’s debt profile surged 86.8% to N26.9trn in 21 years

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Nigeria’s public debt has been on the rise. Despite securing debt relief during the Olusegun Obasanjo-led administration, successive governments have continued on a borrowing spree — the federal government’s component of the public debt surging 86.8 percent to N26.9 trillion in the last 21 years.

 

This has raised concerns among Nigerians on the debt sustainability of the country amid dwindling revenue to meet the debt obligations to creditors.

 

Within two weeks, the senate approved three different loan requests by President Muhammadu Buhari.

 

On July 7, 2021, the upper chamber approved a loan request of N2.343 trillion, approximately $6 billion and another $8.3 billion and €490 million.

 

Defending one of the loan requests, the Debt Management Office (DMO) said it is part of a borrowing plan for the 2021 budget.

 

“The proposed new capital raising is the new external borrowing provided in the 2021 Appropriation Act to part finance the deficit in the budget. In other words, the new capital raising has already been approved in the budgetary process by the executive and legislative arms of government,” the DMO had said in a statement.

 

As of March 2021, Nigeria’s total public debt has hit N33.1 trillion ($87.24 billion) — an accumulation of borrowings from successive governments, of which most were borrowed since the return to democratic rule in 1999.

 

The overall public debt is the total debt accrued by federal, states, and the FCT from local and international lenders.

 

Of the N33.1 trillion, the federal government alone borrowed N26.91 trillion — this includes the FGN bonds, Sukuk, green bonds and Euro bonds.

 

Finally, after weeks of data aggregation, number crunching, dissecting and analyses of freedom of information (FOI) response from the Debt Management Office (DMO), TheCable presents findings that highlight how Nigeria’s aggressive borrowing defies its fiscal responsibility laws.

 

The analyses also include data from the DMO, National Bureau of Statistical (NBS), and fiscal papers from the Budget Office of the Federation.

 

FG DEBT CLIMBED 86.8% TO N26.9 TRILLION IN 21 YEARS

Data from the DMO seen by TheCable showed that federal government borrowings (local and foreign debt) climbed from N3.55 trillion in 1999 to N26.91 trillion at the end of March 2021 (the country’s latest official figure).

 

This represents an 86.8 percent increase in 21 years, comprising the administrations of Olusegun Obasanjo, Umar Musa Yar’Adua, Goodluck Jonathan, and the current Muhammadu Buhari.

 

From Obasanjo to Buhari… how FG’s debt profile surged 86.8% to N26.9trn in 21 years

HOW MUCH BUHARI BORROWED IN 6 YEARS

The Budget Office’s medium-term expenditure framework and fiscal strategy paper from 2015 showed that the Buhari-led administration incurred N7.63 trillion in domestic debt from June 2015 to December 2020.

 

On external borrowings, President Buhari increased debt from $7.3 billion in 2015 to $28.57 billion as of December 2020. This means that the president incurred $21.27 billion on foreign loans to the country’s debt portfolio.

 

The country’s exchange rate moved from N197 to a dollar in 2015 to N381 at the end of December 2020.

 

Analysis of consolidated debt showed that the external debt increased by 291.37 percent while domestic debt grew by 86.31 percent in the last six years of the Buhari government.

 

Overall, the Buhari-led government has had an accumulated debt of N17.06 trillion as of March 2021, using the N381 exchange rate. This represents a 173.2 percent increase from when he was elected president in 2015.

 

public debt

DEBT PROFILE UNDER JONATHAN’S ADMINISTRATION

At the beginning of former President Goodluck Jonathan’s tenure in 2011, the federal government had an accumulated debt of N6.17 trillion.

 

Analysis of the debt figure showed that local debt amounted to N5.62 trillion while foreign debt stood at $3.5 billion (about N548.65 billion, using the exchange rate of N156.7/$1).

 

By the end of 2015, the foreign debt component hit $7.3 billion, while domestic debt increased by N8.4 trillion. The country’s exchange rate also stood at N197/$1.

 

Overall, the federal government component of the total public debt increased from N6.17 trillion in 2011 to N9.8 trillion in 2015, representing an increase of N4.18 trillion or 74.37 percent.

 

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YAR’ADUA/JONATHAN’S BORROWINGS

 

Under the Umar Musa Yar’Adua/Goodluck Jonathan-led government between 2007 and 2011, domestic debt of the federal government moved from N2.17 trillion to N5.62 trillion. The foreign component of the debt also increased from $2.11 billion to $3.5 billion within the period.

 

The country’s exchange rate also moved from N116.8/$1 to N156.7/$1.

 

The combined debt profile increased from N2.42 trillion to N6.17 trillion in four years, representing a 155 percent jump.

 

Of the debt figure, Jonathan completed the tenure from May 2010 to May 2011 after the death of Yar’Adua. The period saw a surge in the federal government’s debt from N4.94 trillion to N6.17 trillion. This represents a 37.4 percent increase in one year.

 

 

OLUSEGUN OBASANJO’S TENURE

During the tenure of former president Olusegun Obasanjo, the debt level of the federal government reduced from N3.55 trillion in 1999 to N2.42 trillion at the end of 2007.

 

The 8-year term of Obasanjo resulted in a dip in FG’s local and foreign debt level, representing a 32 percent decline.

 

The country’s exchange rate was between N98.02 to N116.8 to a dollar during the tenure.

 

Analysis of the figures showed that external debt decreased from $28.04 billion by 1999 to $2.11 billion at the end of 2007. However, the domestic component increased from N798 billion to N2.17 trillion within the same period.

 

The huge decline in foreign debt was a result of the substantial reduction following the pay-off of the outstanding debts owed to the London Clubs of Creditors in the first quarter of 2007.

 

 

BUHARI, NIGERIA’S BIGGEST BORROWER, VIOLATING FINANCIAL LAWS

So far, Buhari is the country’s biggest borrower, increasing public debt (FG component) by more than 173 percent. Next to the Buhari government is the Yar’Adua/Jonathan administration with a 155 percent surge in borrowing.

 

The current government violates important financial laws in the country — the Fiscal Responsibility Act, and the CBN Act 2007.

 

Last year, the government exceeded the fiscal borrowing threshold as stipulated in the fiscal act.

 

Zainab Ahmed, minister of finance, budget and national planning, admitted to this on the grounds that COVID-19 was good enough reason to breach the act.

 

The fiscal responsibility law provides a limit of three percent debt threshold for sustainability, but the president can “exceed the ceiling if there is a clear and present threat to national security or sovereignty of Nigeria”.

 

In 2020, the country’s budget deficit was at about four percent of GDP, clearly breaking the law.

 

On overdraft, section 38, sub-section 1 and 2, of the CBN Act, said, “the Bank may grant temporary advances to the Federal Government in respect of temporary deficiency of budget revenue” and “the total amount of such advances outstanding shall not at any time exceed 5 percent of the previous year’s actual revenue of the Federal Government”.

 

By the end of 2020, CBN overdrafts to the Buhari government exceeded the limit by 69 percent of the revenue generated in 2019 – in a blatant violation of the apex bank rules. The government’s revenue in the year was N4.1 trillion, and overdraft stood at N2.9 trillion.

 

Also, Nigeria’s borrowing limit as a percent of GDP stood at 34.8 percent in 2020, well above 25 percent for the year. Earlier this year, the federal executive council (FEC) had strategically raised the borrowing limit to 40 percent in its Medium-term debt management strategy for Nigeria for the period 2020-2023.

 

While Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP is lower than those of its peers, its debt-to-revenue is too low to sustain the country. Of every N100 government makes in revenue, N97 now goes to debt servicing.

 

In the last four administrations, only Obasanjo’s team reduced public debt; his government recorded a 32 percent decline with the London Club agreement.

 

INCREASING PUBLIC DEBT WORRYING

While borrowing is required to support the economy, sustainability transparency and sustainable repayment plan are crucial.

 

Femi Oke, an economist, said Nigeria’s soaring high debt profile is not good for the country.

 

“The Nigerian government borrows in the worst possible way and in a very outdated manner. This causes a backlash to the government. Because Nigeria’s debts are not linked to any assets, we just go to the treasury bill market and borrow, at any rate, that anybody wants to give you,” he said.

 

“There are many other countries who borrow more than what Nigeria is borrowing and don’t have any problem paying back. They borrow intelligently and efficiently, in a way that their debts service themselves.

 

“A more efficient way of borrowing is for the Federal Government to migrate all the debts to asset-linked debts. This means structuring the borrowing transaction like investments. There must be an underlying asset to which borrowers can use to recover the principal they gave the country plus profit.”

 

Vahyala Kwaga, senior researcher and policy analyst at BudgIT, said the level of borrowing – specifically in 2021- is the highest it has been in the last six years.

 

“The government is borrowing more, spending more and earning less revenue. For context, the government budgeted about N5.37 trillion in revenue in 2020 but only earned a total of N3.42 trillion,” Kwaga said.

 

“There is also no commensurate rise in revenue to counteract the continuing rise in debt servicing. A casual look at the debt servicing level from 2015 to 2020 shows that the level has steadily increased since then.

 

“These amounts include debt servicing on interests for ‘ways and means’ and ‘sinking fund to retire maturing Loans.’”

 

NIGERIA’S ACTUAL DEBT COULD BE 48.7TRN

Wilson Erumebor, a senior economist at Nigerian Economic Summit Group, said Nigeria is a case where expenditure keeps rising, revenue not improving as expected, creating a wide fiscal deficit that is majorly financed by borrowing.

 

“While borrowing is required to support the economy, especially given the impact of the pandemic, what we need to be concerned about is how sustainable Nigeria’s debt position is,” he said.

 

“Debt has risen N33.1 trillion as of March 2021, an increase of 162.7% in the space of about five years.

 

“When we include AMCON’s liabilities and CBN’s ways and means, debt could amount to about N48.7 trillion, which is around 32 percent of GDP.

 

“Debt to GDP may seem quite low at 32 percent, we must understand that debt is serviced with revenues, so if debt servicing is increasing and revenue is not performing, then we have a problem.”

 

Erumebor suggests that the federal government must improve efficiency, transparency, blocking leakages, and deliver value on public projects, despite limited resources.

 

“We must work towards unlocking many sectors and many areas where the country can earn revenue.”

 

In 2020, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said Nigeria’s low debt-to-GDP ratio is highly vulnerable to shocks.

 

“Despite Nigeria’s relatively low debt level, liquidity-based indicators-driven by low revenue mobilisation-remain concerning, with the interest bill representing a high share of government revenue (but low relative to GDP),” IMF said in its country’s report for Nigeria.

 

“Stress scenarios confirm the vulnerability of public debt to a low growth/wide primary deficit scenario. The interest-to-revenue ratio is particularly vulnerable to a real interest rate shock but remains sustainable.”

 

Recently, market researchers at United Capital also expressed concern over the country’s rising debt sustainability risk. “The government has historically justified its rising debt profile by the compliant debt-to-GDP ratio of less than 30.0%,” the research firm said.

 

“However, we reiterate our position that the FG’s debt service cost as a percentage of revenue is a fairer reflection of the country’s debt sustainability position.”

 

At an overall public debt of N33.1 trillion ($87.24 billion), the implication remains that every Nigerian owes both local and foreign organisations N165, 500.

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I didn’t collapse, says Wike, warns death rumour mongers 

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I didn’t collapse, says Wike, warns death rumour mongers 

Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, has debunked reports that he collapsed and was rushed to the hospital last week.

Wike described the reports of his rumoured collapse as the handiwork of “baseless” people trying to score cheap political points.

He spoke after inspecting four ongoing projects in the FCT, including the International Conference Centre.

Online posts circulating on X had surfaced alleging that the minister collapsed at an event on Friday in the FCT.

The rumour also claimed that Wike was immediately rushed to an undisclosed hospital, where he received treatment.

Reacting, Wike said, “There was no time I collapsed, there was no time anybody took me overseas. But you see me every day. The day Mr President broke iftar on his birthday, I was there.

“The next day, I led Abuja residents to pay Sallah homage. I see all those stories just died down. This is politics. We have thick skin. Those things don’t bother us. We are not distracted. We are focused on our jobs.

“So, I thank Nigerians for being worried, which should be, but people should not wish their fellow human beings such a thing to happen.

“We know that we will die one day. Nobody will remain in this world forever, but it is only God that says the day you will die, not any human being to say you will die today or you will die tomorrow.

“So, you have seen that I am even healthier than most of them who carried that rumour and I will write their condolence letters. I can assure you that I will write their condolence letters.”

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World Bank approves Tinubu’s $632m loan request

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World Bank approves Tinubu’s $632m loan request

The World Bank is poised to approve $632 million in new loans to Nigeria today (Monday), amid growing concerns over the country’s expanding debt profile.

The loans are intended to support important sectors such as nutrition enhancement and quality basic education.

According to data obtained from the World Bank’s website on Sunday, the two loans scheduled to be approved today are $80 million for the Accelerating Nutrition Results in Nigeria 2.0 initiative and $552 million for the HOPE for Quality Basic Education for All programme.

Both projects are now in the negotiating phase and are likely to gain final clearance later today.

These new loans are part of the World Bank’s overall strategy to support Nigeria’s development agenda, which focuses on healthcare, education, and community resilience.

The loans will support the government’s efforts to improve nutrition and education for Nigerian children.

Additionally, the World Bank approved a $500 million loan for Nigeria’s Community Action for Resilience and Economic Stimulus Programme on March 28, 2025, a significant step towards addressing the country’s economic challenges through expanded access.

The initiative, formally known as the NIGERIA: Community Action (for) Resilience and Economic Stimulus Programme, is intended to give critical support to households impacted by economic downturns while also strengthening community resilience.

The initiative focuses on vulnerable populations, providing assistance to households and small companies to help them cope with economic difficulties.

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The loan clearance is likely to considerably boost Nigeria’s efforts to revive the economy through grassroots backing, especially given current issues such as inflation and high living costs.

The stimulus plan will prioritise enhancing food security and developing economic possibilities for the populations most affected by recent economic changes.

This decision came after a delay in distributing funds for a previous loan aimed at poor and vulnerable Nigerians.

Further investigation by The PUNCH revealed that the World Bank disbursed around $315 million to Nigeria from the $800 million allocated for the National Social Safety-net Program Scale Up.

Nigeria is yet to receive further funding from the World Bank for this loan project, which was approved in December 2021. The delay in grant release is most likely due to fraud detected under the initiative.

In honour of the 2023 International Day for the Eradication of Poverty, President Bola Tinubu unveiled a social safety net programme that will distribute N25,000 to 15 million households over the course of three months.

The Federal Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and Poverty Alleviation was responsible for managing the $800 million World Bank loan initiative.

However, due to allegations of embezzlement, the federal government was forced to stop the cash transfer program for further investigation and reform.

Betta Edu, a former humanitarian minister, was previously suspended for misappropriating N585 million set aside for palliative care distribution.

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Furthermore, Sadiya Umar-Farouq, Edu’s predecessor, was under investigation by the EFCC. The former minister is being investigated for allegedly laundering N37.1 billion during her stint as minister.

The World Bank also imposed sanctions on people and businesses discovered to be engaging in fraud under the initiatives.

According to the World Bank’s official website, this will bring Nigeria’s total approved loans to $9.25 billion over three years, indicating a growing reliance on multilateral funding to support critical sectors of the economy such as infrastructure, healthcare, education, and financial resilience.

A review of Nigeria’s World Bank loan approvals since 2023, under President Bola Tinubu’s government, reveals a huge rise in funding commitments.

In 2023, the World Bank approved $2.7 billion in loans for renewable energy, women’s empowerment, education, and the power sector. In 2024, funding approvals totalled $4.32 billion for various projects.

This increase was largely due to Nigeria’s growing need for financial assistance to stabilise the economy amid fiscal pressures and rising public debt.

Under President Bola Tinubu’s administration, the World Bank granted around 11 different credit projects for Nigeria.

In less than two years, the federal government has acquired loans from the World Bank totalling $7.45 billion, raising concerns about the mounting debt burden. According to data from the Debt Management Office, the World Bank’s portion of Nigeria’s external debt is $17.32 billion as of the third quarter of 2024.

The International Development Association is owing the majority of this debt, which amounts to $16.84 billion, or 39.14 per cent of Nigeria’s total external debt.

The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, another World Bank subsidiary, is owing $485.08 million, or 1.13 per cent.

While the planned World Bank loans may give much-needed budgetary relief, concerns persist about the country’s mounting debt burden.

According to recent data from the Central Bank of Nigeria, the country has spent $5.47 billion servicing external debt in the last 14 months, underscoring the strain on its foreign reserves.

 

World Bank approves Tinubu’s $632m loan request

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Investigation of wanted businesswoman Achimugu not linked with Atiku, Sanwo-Olu – EFCC

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Investigation of wanted businesswoman Achimugu not linked with Atiku, Sanwo-Olu – EFCC

The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission has reacted to media reports linking its investigations of Ms. Aisha Achimugu with political undercurrents involving former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Lagos State Governor,  Babajide Sanwo-Olu

This is contained in a statement by the commission on Friday night.

The statement read, “We wish to state unequivocally that the investigations of Achimugu have no correlation of any kind with the two political actors.  She is being investigated for alleged criminal conspiracy and money laundering and has since been declared Wanted by the Commission”.

The EFCC started investigating Achimugu in 2022. Although she approached the court to obtain an injunction restraining the Commission from arresting, investigating, inviting or detaining her for any alleged criminal act,  the injunction was challenged and vacated on Wednesday, February 19, 2025 by a Federal High Court sitting in Abuja.

 The court ruled that “…no court has the power to stop the investigative powers of the Police or EFCC or any agency established under our laws to investigate crimes when there is reasonable suspicion of commission of a crime or ample evidence of commission of an offence by a suspect.”

“The court further upheld the interim order of forfeiture of assets of Achimugu suspected to be proceeds of crime, dismissing her suit against it as lacking  merit .

“The foregoing clearly establishes that the EFCC’s case against her has no immediate or remote nexus with any politician or any veiled or open reference to any political engagement or transaction.

“The EFCC is non-partisan and non-sectarian.  We enjoin the public to continue to keep faith with the professionalism of the Commission without imputing any extraneous consideration to its works.”

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