Mid-year flood likely in Lagos, Ogun, Delta, Rivers, Nimet alerts

Lagos, Ogun, Delta, Rivers and nine other states will witness early rainfall this year, the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) stated in its 2025 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP).

Eight northern states – Plateau, Kaduna, Niger, Benue, Nasarawa, Taraba, Adamawa, and Kwara – will experience delayed rainfall.

The agency predicted that Delta, Bayelsa, Rivers, Anambra, and sections of Oyo, Ogun, Osun, Ondo, Lagos, Edo, Enugu, Imo, and Ebonyi will witness early onset of rainfall.

Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo (SAN), presented the 2025 SCP in Abuja.

Rainy season is expected over the coastal area of Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, and parts of Delta between February 23 and March 10.

The cessation date of rainfall is predicted to be between October 6 and December 17 across the country.

The agency also forecast that high-intensity rainfall is expected in May-June that may result in flash floods in the coastal cities.

The forecast shows that in 2025, the total rainfall amount in most parts of the country is likely to be normal to below normal when compared to the long-term average.

Keyamo said: “As with previous years, there are pre-onset rainfall activities that should not be confused with the actual onset of the rainy season.

“Those engaged in rainfed agriculture and other-rainfall-dependent activities in Nigeria are advised to refer to the predicted onset dates or consult NiMet for proper guidance.

“The onset of rain is predicted to be delayed over the northern and central states of Plateau as well as parts of Kaduna, Niger, Benue, Nasarawa, Taraba, Adamawa, and Kwara.

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“While early onset is expected over the southern states of Delta, Bayelsa, Rivers, Anambra, and sections of Oyo, Ogun, Osun, Ondo, Lagos, Edo, Enugu, Imo, and Ebonyi. The rest of the country is predicted to have a normal onset.

“Earlier than the long-term average end-of-rainy season is predicted over parts of Zamfara, Katsina, Kano, Kaduna, Jigawa, Plateau, Bauchi, Borno, Yobe, Adamawa, Taraba, Niger, Kwara, Kogi, FCT, Ekiti, and Ondo states.

“A delayed end of season is expected over parts of Kaduna, Nasarawa, Benue, Lagos, Kwara, Taraba, Oyo, Ogun, Cross River, Delta, Akwa Ibom, Ebonyi, Anambra, and Enugu states.

“The predicted length of rainy season in 2025 is expected to be mostly normal across the country.

“However, Borno and parts of Yobe states could experience shorter than normal length of season.

“Lagos and Nasarawa states are likely to have longer than normal length of seasons in 2025.

“A normal to below-normal annual rainfall is anticipated in most parts of Nigeria compared to the long-term average.

“Parts of Kebbi, Kaduna, Ebonyi, Cross River, Lagos Abia, Akwa Ibom states, and the FCT are expected to have above-normal annual rainfall amounts.

“High-intensity rainfall is expected in May-June that may likely result in flash floods in the coastal cities.”

The minister said some parts of the country would experience dry spells between April and August

He said: “During the April-May-June season, there is a likelihood of a severe dry spell of above 15 days after the establishment of rainfall in Oyo state (Saki, Iseyin, Ogbomosho, Atisbo, Orelope, Itesiwaju, Olorunsogo, Kajola, Iwajowa and Ori Ire).

“Moderate dry spell that may last up to 15 days is likely to occur in Ekiti, Osun, Ondo, Ogun, Edo, Ebonyi, Anambra, Imo, Abia, Cross River, Delta, Bayelsa, and Akwa Ibom states in the south.

“However, for the northern states, a severe dry spell that may last up to 21 days is predicted for the June-July-August season of 2025.

“The Little Dry Season (LDS), also known as ‘August Break’ is predicted to begin by late July and would be severe only in parts of Lagos and Ogun states.

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“The number of days with little or no rainfall will range between 27 to 40 days. Moderate LDS effect is expected over parts of Ogun, Oyo, and Ekiti states. Osun, Oyo, Kwara, and parts of Ondo north are likely to experience light or mild LDS.”

The temperatures are predicted to be warmer than the long-term average over most parts of the country between February and May.

“Temperatures are expected to be generally above the long-term average across the country.

“Both daytime and nighttime temperatures are predicted to be warmer than the long-term average over most parts of the country in January, February, March, and May 2025.

“However, April day and nighttime temperatures are predicted to be generally cooler than normal, while warmer than normal temperatures are likely over most of the northern states”.

On the importance of the SCP, the minister said: “Timely climate predictions will enable farmers to optimize farming schedules thereby improving the nation’s food system security; disaster managers to prepare for emergencies and minimise risks; and health authorities to anticipate disease outbreaks linked to weather and climate variations.”

Keyamo added that the prediction serves as an early warning tool to stakeholders, governments at all levels, and the general public for timely preparedness against potential hazards associated with surplus or deficit rains, floods, and high or low temperatures, as well as dry spells in parts of the country, among others.

Director General of NiMet, Prof. Charles Anosike said the SCP requires actions from stakeholders for its effectiveness.

“As with all weather and climate predictions, the SCP, aside from being perishable, also requires actors who will uptake the information, utilise it, and provide feedback for evaluation and improvement of the document,” he said.

The Director General of the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA), Zubaida Umar noted that weather and climatic elements impact heavily on all forms of human activities and across socio-economic sectors.

She said the SCP enables NEMA to conduct expert analysis of disaster risk implications and produce disaster early warning messages for delivery to emergency responders.

“The negative impacts of the annually recurring flood disaster in Nigeria could have been more devastating without the early warning information developed out of the NiMet SCP which is downscaled to the various end-user agencies and the general public by NEMA,” Umar added.

Mid-year flood likely in Lagos, Ogun, Delta, Rivers, Nimet alerts