Naira hits new low at N820/$, as forex supply gap persists

Naira-dollar

Naira hits new low at N820/$, as forex supply gap persists

At the backdrop of sustained supply gap in Nigeria’s foreign exchange (forex) market, the local currency, Naira, has hit a new low at the weekend, trading N803.9 to a dollar in the Investors & Exporters (I&E) window which is the official forex market and N822/$ in the parallel market.

Financial Vanguard’s findings indicated a 6.6 per cent decline in volume of dollars traded in the I&E window as dealers said they were disappointed that the increase in supply they expected last week did not materialize.

A week-on-week trend in the parallel market shows a 5.5 percent depreciation to N822/$ as against N779/$ closing rate previous week.

In the I&E window, the local currency depreciated 3.9 percent W-o-W to N803.9/$ from N776.9/$ the previous Friday.

Financial Vanguard currency monitor shows that after the initial massive depreciation on June 14th, 2023 when the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, introduced reforms in the market, exchange rate had remained volatile with daily fluctuations until the record low was hit last weekend.

The reform majorly eliminated multiple exchange rates and reintroduced the ‘Willing Buyer Willing Seller’ market model in the I&E window.

Since the new measures were introduced, the Naira has depreciated cumulatively in the I&E window and parallel market by 70 per cent (N321.23) and 7.0 per cent (N58) respectively.

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“You know now the restrictions have been removed, there is also competition and surge in demand. Most people are still holding assets in dollars, and we have not seen significant inflows even from the side of the investors.”

Turnover, external reserves fall

Reflecting the paucity of forex supply amidst rising demand, the volume of dollars traded (turnover) in the I&E window fell by 6.6 per cent or $57.06 million to $807.92 million in the first half of July, from $864.98 million in the corresponding period in June.

Following the same trend, the nation’s external reserves fell by $646 million or 1.9% in one month ending July 13th. Data from the CBN showed that the reserves fell to $34.047 billion on July 13th, from $34.693 billion on June 13th.

Analysts’ insight

To reverse this trend and achieve the expected increased forex inflow, analysts said the CBN must introduce further reforms including removing forex restriction on 43 items and incorporating BDCs into the I&E window as well as clearing the forex demand backlog.

In this regard, Managing Director/CEO Financial Derivatives Company, Mr. Bismarck Rewane, in his Monthly Economic News and Views, said: “In the short term the CBN must tighten monetary conditions, eliminate forex restrictions (Ban on 43 items on the I & E window) and move effective interest rates towards the rate of inflation.”

The above, he added,

”must be complemented in the long term with export-oriented policies, elimination of structural bottlenecks that constrain production and export activities”

In the same vein, analysts at Lagos based CardinalStone Research, in their outlook for H2’23, said: “While the current policy reforms bode well for foreign providers of capital, additional investments into the country will also be partly dependent on the following: 1) the willingness of the CBN to clear existing backlogs, which is estimated at $2.5 – $3.0 billion; 2) the FX market reflects a genuine “willing buyers and willing sellers” structure and supply begins to improve notably. If the 2 highlighted points are achieved, we see legroom for a surge in foreign inflows from the multi-year lows of $5.3 billion in 2022 to about $12 billion over the next one year.”