Osun Poll: Fayose Says Federal Might Could Have Swayed Result If Deployed

Former Ekiti State Governor, Ayo Fayose, has declared that if the Federal Government genuinely intended to manipulate an election outcome by force, there would be little anyone could do to stop it. Fayose made this assertion while reflecting on the August 15, 2026 Osun State governorship election, during an interview with TVC News, in which incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke secured re-election under the Accord Party banner. The former governor, who said he remained in Osogbo throughout the election period, explained that he visited markets and communities across the state, including Ilesa, to gauge the mood of voters ahead of the poll, and his interactions with residents suggested the election would be closely contested, with the result capable of going either way.

When asked if he knew Adeleke would win, Fayose said the closeness of the contest meant either candidate could have emerged victorious, stating, “When you have an election that is 52, 48, it could go either way,” contrasting that with an election where one candidate holds a much wider lead of 30 to 70. He expressed concern about the violence and killings recorded around the election, describing them as unnecessary and deeply regrettable, noting that the Nigeria Police Force retained approximately 15,000 personnel deployed for the election and deployed anti-riot policemen and undercover operatives to strategic locations to prevent post-election violence, following at least 34 election-related violent incidents that resulted in 18 deaths recorded since May 2026.

On vote buying, Fayose stated that neither the APC nor the Accord Party could claim innocence, saying the two sides clearly engaged in the practice, and according to reports, vote trading topped the list of electoral offences with 103 cases recorded by observers, with police arresting individuals from both sides sharing money. Official results declared by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) showed that Governor Ademola Adeleke polled 511,067 votes (51.90 per cent) to defeat APC candidate Bola Oyebamiji, who secured 444,815 votes (45.17 per cent), with the margin of victory increasing from 28,344 votes in 2022 to 66,252 votes in 2026, and the wider margin, combined with intense competition, made manipulation more difficult, according to the Athena Election Observatory.

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Fayose broke down the winning margin, arguing that a significant portion of the difference came from Ede, the home base of the Adeleke family, where in Ede North, Adeleke polled 35,427 votes against Oyebamiji’s 10,283, while in Ede South, he secured 26,188 votes compared with the APC candidate’s 6,219, and Adeleke also won in 19 of the state’s 30 local government areas. He addressed claims that the Federal Government wanted to take over the election, saying, “I want to say to you, if the federal government wants to take an election, they will take it. If the federal government… the ones I know of the past, if they want to take an election, there’s nothing you can do,” a statement that echoed comments by Nyesom Wike, Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, who said President Bola Tinubu could have secured victory for the APC in Osun if he wanted it “at all costs,” insisting that the result showed that no federal might was deployed in Osun and that the President allowed a free and fair process, with Fayose agreeing with Wike’s position, responding, “That, that exactly…”

Fayose congratulated Adeleke on his victory and urged him to reconcile with all stakeholders in the state, saying, “So let us commend the Adelekes for winning and remind them they need to be magnanimous in victory. The language now must be right. Reconciliation must be total. Not with the Accord alone, but with all other stakeholders because all of you are from Osun state.” His comments come as political stakeholders continue to analyse the outcome of the closely watched governorship election, which has significant implications for the political landscape in the South-West region and the build-up to the 2027 general elections.

Tinubu Allowed Free, Fair Election That Gave Adeleke Osun Victory – Wike

Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, has declared that Governor Ademola Adeleke’s victory in the August 15 Osun State governorship election was only possible because President Bola Tinubu allowed the process to remain free and fair. The minister made the statement on Tuesday while inspecting areas affected by flooding in the FCT. He dismissed claims that the Federal Government manipulated the election in favour of the All Progressives Congress (APC), arguing that Tinubu’s decision to congratulate Adeleke after his victory demonstrated that federal influence was not deployed to undermine the opposition.

“The President called him… congratulating him (Adeleke). What does it tell you? If Tinubu did not allow a free and fair election, would they have won? No!” Wike said. The minister rejected allegations of “federal might” being used to influence the poll outcome, drawing from his own experience in previous electoral contests. He challenged those making the allegations to compare the situation with what he described as the experience of the 2019 election in Rivers State. “When you say force of the federal government… ask those who have survived it, though—people like me who survived federal might. It’s not by saying ‘they say, they say.’ It’s not true,” he said. “In Rivers State, in 2019, we saw what is called federal might. We saw soldiers taking over everywhere. Did anything like that happen in Osun State?” Wike asked.

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Wike insisted that President Tinubu could have secured victory for the APC had he been determined to win the election “at all costs.” “If the President wanted to win the Osun State election at all cost, I would have been there and we would have won it, and there’s nothing the governor can do,” Wike said. “There was no federal might used in Osun. When you see the force and might of the Federal Government, you will know,” he added. The minister also suggested that Adeleke’s political alignment could have been different if circumstances within the APC had worked out differently. “Ordinarily, Adeleke would have been with APC if things had worked out well,” Wike said.

Adeleke, who contested on the Accord Party platform, secured 511,067 votes to defeat the APC candidate, Bola Oyebamiji, who polled 444,815 votes. The governor won 19 of Osun State’s 30 local government areas, while Oyebamiji secured victory in the remaining 11. Adeleke’s victory margin of 66,252 votes represents a 133.7 per cent increase over his 2022 winning margin. A comparative analysis by the Athena Election Observatory (AEO) shows that voter accreditation increased by 22.2 per cent, with registered voters rising from 1,952,387 in 2022 to 2,339,544 in 2026. The African Democratic Congress (ADC) candidate, Najeem Salaam, came a distant third with 17,180 votes.

Wike declared that the opposition had been “crippled” ahead of the 2027 elections, predicting that Tinubu would secure re-election with considerably less difficulty than in 2023. “This time around, the opposition has been crippled, homeless, no feather,” Wike said. “This election, 2027, is where the opposition have been crippled, crippled, you know what it means crippling people? Depleted, they finished them. They have nothing to do,” he said. According to him, a credible opposition capable of defeating an incumbent government must have a stable political structure and spend years building its base, rather than continually moving from one political platform to another. Wike urged political analysts and observers to avoid treating the outcome of an off-cycle governorship election as a direct indication of what could happen during a presidential election.

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Wike dismissed suggestions that Adeleke’s victory represented a defeat for President Tinubu and the Federal Government, or that it indicated the opposition was gaining momentum ahead of the 2027 general elections. He argued that had Tinubu been determined to deploy federal might to secure victory for his party, he would have been involved in the process. “I’m part of the Federal Government. I’m sure that if the President wanted to win Osun at all costs, I would be involved, and I would have been there, and the governor would have known that it would have been different,” Wike said.

During his inspection of flood-affected areas in Maitama, Wike also addressed the recurring flooding affecting parts of the FCT, vowing to demolish houses built on designated water channels, including properties belonging to senators and other influential Nigerians. The minister said his inspection revealed that some property owners had blocked waterways designated for drainage under the Abuja Master Plan, creating obstructions that contributed to the flooding. “Now you have done your own by blocking the water channel, and nothing has happened. Thank God the flood has come; it has drawn our attention to the place. Now, something will happen. I am going to bring those houses down. Any house that falls on the water channel will go down,” Wike said. He stressed that the demolition exercise would not spare property owners based on their political or social status. “Some of them are Senators, some of them are big men… All those houses will go down,” he said. Wike gave the FCT Development Control Department until Saturday to identify and act against structures built on waterways. He said both government authorities and residents had responsibilities in preventing flooding, while rejecting suggestions that poor residents were primarily responsible for structures built on waterways and other restricted areas. According to the minister, several structures obstructing drainage channels were allegedly built by wealthy Nigerians and had existed for years before the current administration.

The Osun election has drawn attention to the possibility of opposition collaboration ahead of the 2027 presidential election. The ADC had earlier disclosed that it collaborated with the Accord Party to prevent the APC from reclaiming power in the state, a claim Adeleke later denied. The election outcome and the subsequent exchanges between political actors have set the stage for intense political realignments as Nigeria approaches the 2027 general election.