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Why China is reluctant to fund Lagos’ fourth mainland bridge

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Why China is reluctant to fund Lagos’ fourth mainland bridge

With an estimated population of over 22 million and a landmass of just 3,575 square kilometres, Lagos currently has Nigeria’s highest vehicle density, with about 1.2 million registered vehicles. This represents over 30 per cent of the country’s total vehicle population.

Over the years, traffic congestion in the state has gone beyond inconvenience to become a structural barrier to economic growth, mental well-being, and environmental sustainability. A 2023 study by the Danne Institute for Research, a not-for-profit trust, revealed that Lagos loses a staggering N4tn annually due to severe traffic congestion. The report underscores the urgent need for interventions to mitigate the economic and social toll on residents.

The proposed Fourth Mainland Bridge aims to ease the heavy traffic on the existing Third Mainland Bridge and other key routes such as the Carter and Eko bridges. It is also expected to stimulate economic growth by opening new areas for development through improved connectivity.

Construction was initially planned to begin in the first quarter of 2024, with completion slated for 2027 — before the end of Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu’s tenure. However, execution has stalled. The project is structured as a public–private partnership (PPP), a long-term arrangement between a government and private sector entities, where private capital finances public projects up front and recoups investment through revenue from taxpayers and/or users over time.

A consortium of China’s state-owned firms is the preferred bidder for the Fourth Mainland Bridge project. THE WHISTLER learnt that China is reluctant to undertake high-cost projects with long payback periods that would require substantial upfront investment and years to recover funds. Instead, China prefers projects with minimal risk — to build and be paid for the work directly.

In 2023, the Lagos State Government announced that it had secured over $1.3bn in partnership deals with the African Export-Import Bank and Access Bank for the bridge and related infrastructure, including the 2nd Phase of the Blue Line rail from Mile 2 to Okokomaiko. In January, Governor Sanwo-Olu revealed that financiers were requesting a sovereign guarantee — a commitment from the Federal Government to secure funding for the bridge.

he governor stressed that Lagos is cautious about its debt profile, particularly amid currency fluctuations.

“We have looked at the financial sustainability of Lagos. Any development you want to do at that scale and you are subnational, you need to be able to look at your sustainability ratios.

“Everybody that has raised funding to help us develop that project—that’s a $2bn project—they aree asking for a sovereign guarantee.

“They are asking for you to get a commitment from the central government. So, we have not been able to push that,” Sanwo-Olu explained during an interview on TVC.

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A consortium of China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation (CCECC) and China Railway Construction Investment Group (CRCCIG) is the preferred bidder for the Fourth Mainland Bridge PPP.

The Lagos State Government announced the CCECC-CRCCIG Consortium as the preferred bidder in December 2022.

The bidding process began in November 2019, with 52 responses received, out of which 32 were deemed responsive.

According to the former Special Adviser to the Governor on PPPs, Ope George, after evaluating the Request for Quotation (RFQ), six bidders advanced to the Request for Proposal (RfP) phase, with CCECC-CRCCIG eventually selected as the preferred bidder.

“You will recall that the Lagos State government commenced a Competitive Bidding process for the selection of a Concessionaire, by the issuance of the Request for Expressions of Interest (REOI) on 27th of November, 2019. A total of 52 responses were received with 32 being responsive,” George explained during a briefing.

“Subsequently, a Request for Quotation (RFQ) was issued on 10th February 2020 to the 32 eligible applicants and responses were received on 15th April, 2020 with a total of 15 responses. Upon evaluation, six bidders met the criteria to progress to the Request for Proposal (RfP) stage.”

George added that while the CCECC-CRCCIG Consortium emerged as the preferred bidder, the Mota-Engil (Nigeria & Africa), CCCC & CRBC Consortium was named the reserved bidder.

The PPP agreement includes a 40-year concession for the operator to run and maintain the bridge in order to recoup its investment.

China’s Real Estate Crisis

China’s real estate sector is in distress, with property prices on a downward spiral for the past four years. The sector, a key contributor to China’s GDP, has suffered a major downturn, leading to reduced revenues from land sales, higher costs from stimulus measures, and slowing economic growth. This has caused financial instability and strained local government finances.

The crisis has also affected the global economy — weakening trading markets, raising risks for foreign investors, and stressing the international monetary system. To address the problem, the Chinese government has introduced measures such as re-lending to commercial banks, lowering down-payment thresholds, reducing mortgage rates, and loosening qualification criteria for first-time buyers.

A PPP expert and Chairman of Altra Capital, John Davie, said the real estate crisis is dampening China’s appetite for investment risks overseas.

He noted that the Fourth Mainland Bridge project carries significant risks and that China’s domestic economic challenges are influencing its decisions abroad.

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“China’s domestic demand remains weak due to a struggling property market and low consumer confidence which is putting strains on its willingness to take risks overseas, and the Fourth Mainland Bridge PPP does have huge risks attached,” Davie told THE WHISTLER.

“With China’s real estate sector trapped in a four-year crisis of oversupply and developer bankruptcies, local governments facing a mountain of debt, and consumers tightening their belts as unemployment rises, the government’s reliance on industrial investment amid the downturn is coming home to roost.”

Need For A Sovereign Guarantee

Davie explained that the Fourth Mainland Bridge project carries a high-risk profile and therefore requires a sovereign guarantee for execution.

He said that because the project has a long concession period, its financial returns are uncertain and not significantly better than its risks.

“The project is a very expensive piece of infrastructure with a concession period of 40 years, which suggests that it is not a clear winner financially. Many bridge PPPs are for 20 – 25 years so 40 years means the income is not as secure as it should be,” he said.

Davie noted that sovereign guarantees are often needed in Nigerian PPPs to attract private investment by mitigating risks that private investors cannot bear alone.

“Among these is the real issue of currency fluctuations on large long term projects which will require international finance; in this case Chinese investment – estimated to cost around $2.5bn which is unprecedented at this scale for a sub-national entity in Nigeria and potentially all of Africa,” he said.

It remains unclear what type of sovereign guarantee the Chinese are requesting for the Fourth Mainland Bridge. However, large PPP projects are typically financed through a Project Finance model.

A PPP expert, Dr Chukwuma Katchy, explained that in Project Finance, there is no collateral — if the project fails, the lenders lose their money. Therefore, lenders usually demand performance guarantees such as Demand Risk and MAGA (Material Adverse Government Action) guarantees.

He described a guarantee as an explicit additional layer of protection ensuring that certain obligations in the PPP contract will be honoured by the government or that damages will be paid.

“In reality, nobody can accurately predict the future, and so it is practically impossible for any reputable lender to finance a project without any form of guarantee, such as a performance guarantee,” Chukwuma told THE WHISTLER.

“Demand Risk guarantee simply requests the government to pay the difference between the estimated demand and actual demand if the actual demand falls below the estimated demand.”

He cited the Sydney Cross City Tunnel in Australia — a PPP project commissioned in 2005 — which had an estimated demand of 90,000 cars per day but recorded only 45,000, leading to bankruptcy within two years.

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Chukwuma stressed that while sovereign guarantees cover all risks, they are not commonly used in PPPs except in fragile or conflict-affected states.

“Lenders will always require a Demand Risk guarantee for green field projects such as the Lagos Fourth Mainland bridge since a greenfield project is highly unpredictable. Lagos State Government should arrange with the Federal Government to provide a Demand Risk and a MAGA Risk Guarantees,” he added.

Bridge Background

The Fourth Mainland Bridge is a 37-kilometre structure with a design speed of 140 km/h. It will span from Abraham Adesanya in Ajah to the northwest, connecting to the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway through Owutu/Isawo in Ikorodu.

Proposed in 2006, the project is estimated to cost about $2.5bn. Upon completion, it is expected to be the longest bridge in Africa, featuring three toll plazas, nine interchanges, and a 4.5-kilometre lagoon crossing.

In May 2016, former Governor Akinwunmi Ambode signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with a consortium of firms and finance houses, including the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC), Access Bank, Julius Berger Nigeria Plc, Nigerian Westminster Dredging and Marine, J.P. Morgan, Hi-Tech Construction Limited, Eldorado Nigeria Limited, and Visible Asset Limited.

However, in May 2017, the government announced the cancellation of the deal, citing delays by the consortium in commencing the project.

Nigeria’s Debt To China

China is Nigeria’s largest bilateral creditor. According to data from the Debt Management Office (DMO) for Q1 2025, Nigeria owes China $5.16bn of its $6bn bilateral debt.

As of December 2024, the figure stood at about $5.3bn. France is Nigeria’s second-largest bilateral creditor, with $609m in loans.

Nigeria has obtained at least 17 Chinese loans for various capital projects and will continue servicing them until around 2038 — the maturity date for some of the loans.

In June 2020, the DMO reported that Nigeria’s borrowing from China stood at $3.121bn as of March 31, 2020, meaning the debt has risen by close to $2bn in five years.

PPP Challenges In Lagos

Past PPPs in Lagos have faced significant hurdles. A key example is the Lekki-Epe Expressway PPP, awarded in 2003. Although construction began in 2006, financial closure was not reached until two years later — a delay experts have described as a major flaw.

The project also faced strong public opposition to toll fees, as well as financial and regulatory challenges with the concession agreement. Consequently, the Lagos State Government eventually bought back the concession from the Lekki Concession Company (LCC).

This experience may explain China’s insistence on sovereign guarantees. Given the high-risk profile of the Fourth Mainland Bridge, the Federal Government is unlikely to provide such a guarantee at this time.

A Managing Consultant at James Daniel Consulting, Emeka Ibe, told THE WHISTLER that a sovereign guarantee is standard practice for a project of this magnitude.

He explained that since Lagos is a subnational entity, the Federal Government would need to provide a guarantee for the state.

“Lagos State Government is not Sovereign but a state of the Sovereign Nigeria, LASG government doesn’t have a central bank and all international payments must pass through CBN,” Ibe said.

“The request for a sovereign guarantee is a standard for international financiers in this type of project. This means that the Federal Government of Nigeria (Federal Ministry of Finance/ Debt Management Office will have to guarantee the Lagos State Government.”

Why China is reluctant to fund Lagos’ fourth mainland bridge

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State Police Reform: FG Invites Nigerians to Submit Policy Proposals as Draft Bill Nears September Deadline

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State Police Reform: FG Invites Nigerians to Submit Policy Proposals as Draft Bill Nears September Deadline
Femi Gbajabiamila, Chief of Staff to the President and Chairman of the Presidential Working Group on the National Policing Bill

State Police Reform: FG Invites Nigerians to Submit Policy Proposals as Draft Bill Nears September Deadline

The Presidential Working Group on State Policing has opened a two-week public submission window for memoranda and policy proposals, setting the stage for a landmark legal framework that could redefine security architecture across Nigeria.

The Federal Government has officially called on Nigerians at home and in the diaspora, civil society organisations, security agencies, academics, professional bodies, and sub-national governments to contribute to the drafting of the proposed National Policing Bill, which seeks to establish a legal and operational framework for state police in Nigeria. The call was made public on Monday by Femi Gbajabiamila, Chief of Staff to the President and Chairman of the Presidential Working Group on the National Policing Bill, following a high-level meeting at the State House, Abuja. The announcement was contained in a statement issued by the Presidential spokesperson, Bayo Onanuga, who confirmed that all submissions will be reviewed and integrated into the draft bill, which will then be subject to further national consultation before being finalised and sent to the National Assembly. The development comes weeks after the National Assembly passed the bill following its transmission by President Bola Tinubu, signalling strong political will to actualise one of the most debated governance reforms in Nigeria’s recent history.

This public consultation exercise is critical because the Working Group is currently reviewing the Police Act 2020, the Police Service Commission framework, police regulations, and other relevant laws to develop a modern, effective, and accountable policing system. The proposed framework is expected to set national minimum standards for policing across all states, define state readiness and certification requirements before any state can operate its own police service, and clarify jurisdictional responsibilities between federal and state police forces. Additionally, the bill will ensure independent oversight and safeguard human rights, guarantee sustainable funding and financial accountability, and prevent the use of state police as a tool for political persecution – a concern earlier raised by the Attorney-General of the Federation, Lateef Fagbemi, who stressed that the legislation is designed to protect citizens from potential abuses of power at the sub-national level.

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Nigerians have until August 13, 2026, to submit their memoranda and policy proposals through the dedicated portal at www.nationalpolicingbill.com, marking the close of a two-week submission window. The Presidential Working Group has adopted a seven-week, milestone-driven work programme running from July 27 to September 14, 2026, with the draft Executive Bill scheduled for presentation to President Bola Tinubu on September 3, 2026. Following this, national consultations will be held on the completed draft before it is finalised and transmitted to the National Assembly. All Nigerians, including professionals, academics, security experts, state and local governments, and civil society groups, are encouraged to participate in this historic policy-shaping process.

The new policing framework will impose strict operational readiness requirements on any state seeking to establish its own police service. According to Gbajabiamila, a proposed State Police Service must demonstrate credible arrangements in recruitment and vetting processes, training and capacity development, pay, pensions and welfare, equipment and logistics, custody and detention standards, complaints and discipline mechanisms, data management and reporting, firearms control and regulation, independent oversight bodies, and financial sustainability plans before it begins policing. These stringent criteria are designed to ensure that only states with the institutional capacity and financial resilience can operate their own police forces, thereby preventing a patchwork of poorly equipped or unaccountable state-level security services.

The Nigeria Governors’ Forum, represented by Ogun State Governor Dapo Abiodun, has described the state police initiative as one of the defining reforms of President Tinubu’s administration, expressing the forum’s commitment to ensuring the success of the policy. The Working Group is also considering recommending federal grants to assist states with limited financial capacity in establishing their police services, acknowledging the fiscal disparities among the 36 states. States that are not yet ready to establish their own service will continue to rely on the Nigeria Police Force until they meet the required standards, ensuring that no state is left without adequate security coverage during the transition period.

The final submission to the President will go beyond a conventional bill and is expected to include schedules and explanatory memoranda, a legal audit of existing policing laws, a state readiness framework, a fiscal and implementation note, and a risk register with transition arrangements. This comprehensive approach is designed to ensure that the reform is defensible, auditable, and capable of implementation across Nigeria’s diverse states, addressing everything from constitutional alignment to practical logistics on the ground.

The government has emphasised that this is a people-driven process, and by inviting input from all segments of society – including ordinary citizens, diaspora communities, and professional bodies – the Working Group aims to build a policing system that reflects the aspirations and realities of all Nigerians. As a senior official close to the Working Group noted, this is not just a government bill but a national project in which every Nigerian has a stake in how they are policed. Interested individuals and organisations are encouraged to visit www.nationalpolicingbill.com before August 13, 2026, to submit their memoranda and policy proposals, with all submissions to be reviewed and incorporated into the draft bill ahead of further national consultations.

State Police Reform: FG Invites Nigerians to Submit Policy Proposals as Draft Bill Nears September Deadline

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Biafra Civil War: Gowon says Igbo bank depositors were fully paid, defends Awolowo over £20 policy

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Biafra Civil War: Gowon says Igbo bank depositors were fully paid, defends Awolowo over £20 policy
Yakubu Gowon and Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu

Biafra Civil War: Gowon says Igbo bank depositors were fully paid, defends Awolowo over £20 policy

Former Nigerian Head of State, General Yakubu Gowon (retd.), has defended the late Chief Obafemi Awolowo against long-standing criticism over the controversial post-civil war £20 policy, saying the decision was taken collectively by the Federal Government and was not Awolowo’s personal policy.

Gowon also stated that people from the former Biafran territory who could provide evidence that they had money in Nigerian banks before or during the Nigerian Civil War received the full value of their deposits, including accrued interest.

The former Head of State made the clarification in his memoir, My Life of Duty and Allegiance, where he revisited the circumstances surrounding the currency policy introduced after the end of the civil war in January 1970.

The £20 policy has remained a subject of public debate for decades, with critics accusing Awolowo, who served as Federal Commissioner for Finance during the war, of restricting people from the former Biafran territory to a flat payment of £20, regardless of the amount they had held before the conflict.

However, Gowon said Awolowo had been unfairly blamed for a policy that was approved by the Federal Government after consultations and consideration of the economic challenges facing Nigeria at the end of the war.

According to Gowon, the Central Bank of Nigeria established a panel to examine the possible consequences of converting the Biafran pound into Nigerian currency.

He explained that the exercise was difficult because the Biafran currency was not recognised by the Federal Government as legal tender during the war.

Gowon said the large volume of Biafran currency in circulation also created concerns that exchanging all the notes at the same value as the Nigerian pound could have caused serious economic disruption.

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Economic advisers subsequently recommended that the Federal Government provide a uniform payment of about £20 to each adult from the former Biafran territory, regardless of the quantity of Biafran currency presented.

“We agreed to the proposal and made it our official policy,” Gowon wrote, adding that the government faced major difficulties in determining the volume of Biafran currency in circulation and establishing a practical basis for converting it.

He maintained that the decision was made by the Federal Government and should not be attributed solely to Awolowo.

Gowon further stated that people who had left Nigeria but could provide proof that they held funds in Nigerian banks received the full value of their deposits, including interest, in Nigerian currency.

“Everyone who left Nigeria but had proof that they had money in Nigerian banks got the full amount of their money plus the interest it earned, all in Nigerian currency,” he said.

The former military leader argued that adopting a different approach could have created significant economic and administrative challenges during Nigeria’s post-war recovery.

The Nigerian Civil War, also known as the Biafra War, began in 1967 and ended in January 1970 following the surrender of Biafran forces.

After the war, Gowon declared a policy of “no victor, no vanquished” and introduced the Reconciliation, Reconstruction and Rehabilitation programme, widely known as the 3Rs.

The programme was designed to promote national unity, rebuild war-affected communities and support the reintegration of the former Eastern Region into Nigeria.

Despite the government’s post-war reconciliation agenda, the £20 policy remains one of the most debated aspects of Nigeria’s post-civil war history.

Critics have argued that the policy caused financial hardship for many people in the former Biafran territory, particularly those who lost access to savings, could not provide documentation for their bank deposits or were unable to recover the value of assets affected by the war.

Some historians and commentators have also questioned whether the post-war reconstruction and rehabilitation programmes adequately addressed the economic losses and long-term effects experienced by communities affected by the conflict.

Gowon’s account has renewed public discussion about the Biafra Civil War, the post-war currency policy and Awolowo’s role in the Federal Military Government.

While Gowon maintains that verified Nigerian bank deposits were fully repaid with interest and that Awolowo should not be held personally responsible for the £20 policy, the issue continues to generate debate over post-war justice, economic recovery, historical memory and national reconciliation.

Biafra Civil War: Gowon says Igbo bank depositors were fully paid, defends Awolowo over £20 policy

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How 15-year-old allegedly staged his own kidnapping to extort N200,000 from father

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How 15-year-old allegedly staged his own kidnapping to extort N200,000 from father

How 15-year-old allegedly staged his own kidnapping to extort N200,000 from father

The Niger State Police Command has arrested a 15-year-old boy who allegedly staged his own kidnapping in an attempt to extort N200,000 from his father in Suleja.

The teenager was arrested alongside a 17-year-old alleged accomplice after police traced him to a hotel in Suleja, days after his family reported him missing.

The spokesperson for the Niger State Police Command, SP Wasiu Abiodun, disclosed the development in a statement issued on Monday.

According to the police, the 15-year-old left home after attending church on July 20, 2026, but failed to return, prompting concern among his family members.

The following day, the family reportedly received a telephone call from someone who claimed that the teenager had been kidnapped and demanded a ransom of N200,000 for his release.

The matter was subsequently reported at the B Division of the Nigeria Police Force in Suleja, leading to the launch of an investigation.

Police detectives reportedly acted on credible intelligence and traced the teenager to a hotel in Suleja on July 25, where he was found with the 17-year-old.

“On receipt of the information, police operatives of the division commenced an investigation and, acting on credible intelligence, the said Kelvin was found at a hotel in Suleja on July 25, 2026, with his accomplice,” the police spokesperson said.

According to the command, the two teenagers allegedly confessed during questioning that they planned the incident to obtain N200,000 from the boy’s father.

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The police said the money was to be shared between them after the ransom had been paid.

“The suspects confessed that they planned to extort the sum of N200,000 from Kelvin’s father, after which they would share the proceeds of the crime,” Abiodun said.

The police said the alleged plan was uncovered before the family paid the requested ransom.

Both teenagers are currently in the custody of the State Criminal Investigation Department, SCID, in Minna, where further investigations are ongoing.

The command said the suspects would be taken through the appropriate legal process after the investigation had been concluded.

The incident has renewed concerns over staged kidnapping, particularly the emotional and financial impact such incidents can have on families.

Security experts have repeatedly warned that fake kidnapping claims can cause panic, place families under severe emotional pressure and divert police resources from genuine cases involving missing or abducted persons.

The case also highlights the importance of reporting suspected kidnappings promptly to security agencies and allowing investigators to handle ransom demands and related threats.

Residents have been encouraged to provide timely and credible information that could help security agencies prevent crime and respond quickly to reports involving missing persons.

The Niger State Police Command said investigations into the alleged self-kidnapping plot were continuing.

How 15-year-old allegedly staged his own kidnapping to extort N200,000 from father

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