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Why China is reluctant to fund Lagos’ fourth mainland bridge

Published

12 months ago

November 2, 2025

Fourth Mainland Bridge Stalls in 2026 Despite N220.73m Budget Spend

Why China is reluctant to fund Lagos’ fourth mainland bridge

With an estimated population of over 22 million and a landmass of just 3,575 square kilometres, Lagos currently has Nigeria’s highest vehicle density, with about 1.2 million registered vehicles. This represents over 30 per cent of the country’s total vehicle population.

Over the years, traffic congestion in the state has gone beyond inconvenience to become a structural barrier to economic growth, mental well-being, and environmental sustainability. A 2023 study by the Danne Institute for Research, a not-for-profit trust, revealed that Lagos loses a staggering N4tn annually due to severe traffic congestion. The report underscores the urgent need for interventions to mitigate the economic and social toll on residents.

The proposed Fourth Mainland Bridge aims to ease the heavy traffic on the existing Third Mainland Bridge and other key routes such as the Carter and Eko bridges. It is also expected to stimulate economic growth by opening new areas for development through improved connectivity.

Construction was initially planned to begin in the first quarter of 2024, with completion slated for 2027 — before the end of Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu’s tenure. However, execution has stalled. The project is structured as a public–private partnership (PPP), a long-term arrangement between a government and private sector entities, where private capital finances public projects up front and recoups investment through revenue from taxpayers and/or users over time.

A consortium of China’s state-owned firms is the preferred bidder for the Fourth Mainland Bridge project. THE WHISTLER learnt that China is reluctant to undertake high-cost projects with long payback periods that would require substantial upfront investment and years to recover funds. Instead, China prefers projects with minimal risk — to build and be paid for the work directly.

In 2023, the Lagos State Government announced that it had secured over $1.3bn in partnership deals with the African Export-Import Bank and Access Bank for the bridge and related infrastructure, including the 2nd Phase of the Blue Line rail from Mile 2 to Okokomaiko. In January, Governor Sanwo-Olu revealed that financiers were requesting a sovereign guarantee — a commitment from the Federal Government to secure funding for the bridge.

he governor stressed that Lagos is cautious about its debt profile, particularly amid currency fluctuations.

“We have looked at the financial sustainability of Lagos. Any development you want to do at that scale and you are subnational, you need to be able to look at your sustainability ratios.

“Everybody that has raised funding to help us develop that project—that’s a $2bn project—they aree asking for a sovereign guarantee.

“They are asking for you to get a commitment from the central government. So, we have not been able to push that,” Sanwo-Olu explained during an interview on TVC.

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A consortium of China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation (CCECC) and China Railway Construction Investment Group (CRCCIG) is the preferred bidder for the Fourth Mainland Bridge PPP.

The Lagos State Government announced the CCECC-CRCCIG Consortium as the preferred bidder in December 2022.

The bidding process began in November 2019, with 52 responses received, out of which 32 were deemed responsive.

According to the former Special Adviser to the Governor on PPPs, Ope George, after evaluating the Request for Quotation (RFQ), six bidders advanced to the Request for Proposal (RfP) phase, with CCECC-CRCCIG eventually selected as the preferred bidder.

“You will recall that the Lagos State government commenced a Competitive Bidding process for the selection of a Concessionaire, by the issuance of the Request for Expressions of Interest (REOI) on 27th of November, 2019. A total of 52 responses were received with 32 being responsive,” George explained during a briefing.

“Subsequently, a Request for Quotation (RFQ) was issued on 10th February 2020 to the 32 eligible applicants and responses were received on 15th April, 2020 with a total of 15 responses. Upon evaluation, six bidders met the criteria to progress to the Request for Proposal (RfP) stage.”

George added that while the CCECC-CRCCIG Consortium emerged as the preferred bidder, the Mota-Engil (Nigeria & Africa), CCCC & CRBC Consortium was named the reserved bidder.

The PPP agreement includes a 40-year concession for the operator to run and maintain the bridge in order to recoup its investment.

China’s Real Estate Crisis

China’s real estate sector is in distress, with property prices on a downward spiral for the past four years. The sector, a key contributor to China’s GDP, has suffered a major downturn, leading to reduced revenues from land sales, higher costs from stimulus measures, and slowing economic growth. This has caused financial instability and strained local government finances.

The crisis has also affected the global economy — weakening trading markets, raising risks for foreign investors, and stressing the international monetary system. To address the problem, the Chinese government has introduced measures such as re-lending to commercial banks, lowering down-payment thresholds, reducing mortgage rates, and loosening qualification criteria for first-time buyers.

A PPP expert and Chairman of Altra Capital, John Davie, said the real estate crisis is dampening China’s appetite for investment risks overseas.

He noted that the Fourth Mainland Bridge project carries significant risks and that China’s domestic economic challenges are influencing its decisions abroad.

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“China’s domestic demand remains weak due to a struggling property market and low consumer confidence which is putting strains on its willingness to take risks overseas, and the Fourth Mainland Bridge PPP does have huge risks attached,” Davie told THE WHISTLER.

“With China’s real estate sector trapped in a four-year crisis of oversupply and developer bankruptcies, local governments facing a mountain of debt, and consumers tightening their belts as unemployment rises, the government’s reliance on industrial investment amid the downturn is coming home to roost.”

Need For A Sovereign Guarantee

Davie explained that the Fourth Mainland Bridge project carries a high-risk profile and therefore requires a sovereign guarantee for execution.

He said that because the project has a long concession period, its financial returns are uncertain and not significantly better than its risks.

“The project is a very expensive piece of infrastructure with a concession period of 40 years, which suggests that it is not a clear winner financially. Many bridge PPPs are for 20 – 25 years so 40 years means the income is not as secure as it should be,” he said.

Davie noted that sovereign guarantees are often needed in Nigerian PPPs to attract private investment by mitigating risks that private investors cannot bear alone.

“Among these is the real issue of currency fluctuations on large long term projects which will require international finance; in this case Chinese investment – estimated to cost around $2.5bn which is unprecedented at this scale for a sub-national entity in Nigeria and potentially all of Africa,” he said.

It remains unclear what type of sovereign guarantee the Chinese are requesting for the Fourth Mainland Bridge. However, large PPP projects are typically financed through a Project Finance model.

A PPP expert, Dr Chukwuma Katchy, explained that in Project Finance, there is no collateral — if the project fails, the lenders lose their money. Therefore, lenders usually demand performance guarantees such as Demand Risk and MAGA (Material Adverse Government Action) guarantees.

He described a guarantee as an explicit additional layer of protection ensuring that certain obligations in the PPP contract will be honoured by the government or that damages will be paid.

“In reality, nobody can accurately predict the future, and so it is practically impossible for any reputable lender to finance a project without any form of guarantee, such as a performance guarantee,” Chukwuma told THE WHISTLER.

“Demand Risk guarantee simply requests the government to pay the difference between the estimated demand and actual demand if the actual demand falls below the estimated demand.”

He cited the Sydney Cross City Tunnel in Australia — a PPP project commissioned in 2005 — which had an estimated demand of 90,000 cars per day but recorded only 45,000, leading to bankruptcy within two years.

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Chukwuma stressed that while sovereign guarantees cover all risks, they are not commonly used in PPPs except in fragile or conflict-affected states.

“Lenders will always require a Demand Risk guarantee for green field projects such as the Lagos Fourth Mainland bridge since a greenfield project is highly unpredictable. Lagos State Government should arrange with the Federal Government to provide a Demand Risk and a MAGA Risk Guarantees,” he added.

Bridge Background

The Fourth Mainland Bridge is a 37-kilometre structure with a design speed of 140 km/h. It will span from Abraham Adesanya in Ajah to the northwest, connecting to the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway through Owutu/Isawo in Ikorodu.

Proposed in 2006, the project is estimated to cost about $2.5bn. Upon completion, it is expected to be the longest bridge in Africa, featuring three toll plazas, nine interchanges, and a 4.5-kilometre lagoon crossing.

In May 2016, former Governor Akinwunmi Ambode signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with a consortium of firms and finance houses, including the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC), Access Bank, Julius Berger Nigeria Plc, Nigerian Westminster Dredging and Marine, J.P. Morgan, Hi-Tech Construction Limited, Eldorado Nigeria Limited, and Visible Asset Limited.

However, in May 2017, the government announced the cancellation of the deal, citing delays by the consortium in commencing the project.

Nigeria’s Debt To China

China is Nigeria’s largest bilateral creditor. According to data from the Debt Management Office (DMO) for Q1 2025, Nigeria owes China $5.16bn of its $6bn bilateral debt.

As of December 2024, the figure stood at about $5.3bn. France is Nigeria’s second-largest bilateral creditor, with $609m in loans.

Nigeria has obtained at least 17 Chinese loans for various capital projects and will continue servicing them until around 2038 — the maturity date for some of the loans.

In June 2020, the DMO reported that Nigeria’s borrowing from China stood at $3.121bn as of March 31, 2020, meaning the debt has risen by close to $2bn in five years.

PPP Challenges In Lagos

Past PPPs in Lagos have faced significant hurdles. A key example is the Lekki-Epe Expressway PPP, awarded in 2003. Although construction began in 2006, financial closure was not reached until two years later — a delay experts have described as a major flaw.

The project also faced strong public opposition to toll fees, as well as financial and regulatory challenges with the concession agreement. Consequently, the Lagos State Government eventually bought back the concession from the Lekki Concession Company (LCC).

This experience may explain China’s insistence on sovereign guarantees. Given the high-risk profile of the Fourth Mainland Bridge, the Federal Government is unlikely to provide such a guarantee at this time.

A Managing Consultant at James Daniel Consulting, Emeka Ibe, told THE WHISTLER that a sovereign guarantee is standard practice for a project of this magnitude.

He explained that since Lagos is a subnational entity, the Federal Government would need to provide a guarantee for the state.

“Lagos State Government is not Sovereign but a state of the Sovereign Nigeria, LASG government doesn’t have a central bank and all international payments must pass through CBN,” Ibe said.

“The request for a sovereign guarantee is a standard for international financiers in this type of project. This means that the Federal Government of Nigeria (Federal Ministry of Finance/ Debt Management Office will have to guarantee the Lagos State Government.”

Why China is reluctant to fund Lagos’ fourth mainland bridge

THE WHISTLER

Related Topics:China Fourth Mainland Bridge Lagos

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VIDEO: Outrage as Indian National Assaults Nigerian Truck Drivers in Lagos

Published

6 hours ago

October 13, 2026

Trends Admin

VIDEO: Outrage as Indian National Assaults Nigerian Truck Drivers in Lagos

A viral video showing an Indian national allegedly assaulting two Nigerian truck drivers at a company’s premises along the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway has sparked outrage, with transport stakeholders demanding justice and calling for an investigation.

The incident reportedly occurred on Saturday, October 10, 2026, at the premises of Karma Agric Feed & Foods Ltd, around Km 12 of the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway, opposite the old Ratcoc Quarry. The footage circulated widely on social media on Monday, October 12.

The two transport workers were identified as Rilwan Olajide, a truck driver, and Taiwo Yinusa, his motor boy. The video appears to show a confrontation between the drivers and individuals at the company’s premises, with the disagreement reportedly involving truck keys and a demand for demurrage compensation.

The situation allegedly escalated when a man identified in media reports as an Indian national struck one of the drivers with a stick. Another worker appeared to be restrained by other individuals and kicked while on the ground.

However, the full circumstances leading to the confrontation remain unclear, and the allegations have yet to be conclusively established.

The Association of Maritime Truck Owners (AMATO) condemned the alleged assault, describing the reported treatment of the workers as unacceptable. The association said the available video footage and other materials raised concerns about the alleged involvement of individuals connected with the company.

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AMATO stressed that disagreements over payments, truck keys or other commercial matters should be resolved through lawful means rather than violence or intimidation. It also emphasised that every person in Nigeria is entitled to dignity and protection under the law, regardless of nationality or occupation.

The association called on the relevant police authorities to conduct a thorough and impartial investigation, preserve available evidence and identify everyone involved. It urged the authorities to prosecute anyone found culpable in accordance with the law.

AMATO also appealed to the management of Karma Agric Feed & Foods Ltd to cooperate with investigators and take appropriate steps to prevent a recurrence. It maintained that accountability should be based on the actions of individuals and should not be used to stigmatise Indian nationals generally.

In a separate response, the Lagos State Trucks and Cargo Committee (LASTCOC) reportedly directed truck owners and drivers to suspend the delivery and collection of consignments to and from the company pending further action over the incident.

The directive could affect cargo movement involving the company while transport operators await the outcome of efforts to address the allegations. LASTCOC also warned that operators who disregarded the directive could face sanctions.

The reported suspension underscores the growing tension between transport stakeholders and the company following the circulation of the video.

The incident has renewed concerns about the safety and treatment of Nigerian truck drivers and motor boys, who play a critical role in moving goods across the country. Transport stakeholders have insisted that workplace and commercial disputes must be handled through established procedures, with violence and intimidation investigated and addressed appropriately.

As of the latest available reports, there was no confirmed public announcement of an arrest or a formal police finding on the incident. The company’s response was also not available. The allegations therefore remain subject to investigation, and the responsibility of each person involved must be determined through due process.

VIDEO: Outrage as Indian National Assaults Nigerian Truck Drivers in Lagos

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$1bn Arms Fund: Buratai Challenges Defence Ministry to Account for Money

Published

7 hours ago

October 13, 2026

Trends Admin

Former Chief of Army Staff, Lieutenant General Tukur Buratai (retd.)

$1bn Arms Fund: Buratai Challenges Defence Ministry to Account for Money

Former Chief of Army Staff, Lieutenant General Tukur Buratai (retd.), has challenged the Ministry of Defence to explain how the $1 billion approved for military equipment procurement during his tenure was spent, insisting that neither he nor the Nigerian Army, Navy and Air Force handled the funds.

Buratai made the demand on Monday at the third conference of the Defence Correspondents Association of Nigeria (DECAN) in Abuja, where he called for greater transparency in Nigeria’s defence spending and accountability for public funds allocated to national security.

The retired army chief said the National Economic Council (NEC) approved the $1 billion for defence procurement, but the money was released to the Ministry of Defence, which he said managed the procurement process.

“Not a single dollar of that fund passed through my hands or through the accounts of the Nigerian Army, Navy, or Air Force,” Buratai said.

He maintained that the armed services did not receive any portion of the money to initiate procurement directives, arguing that responsibility for explaining how the funds were disbursed and which contracts were awarded rested with the ministry that managed them.

Buratai described allegations surrounding the money as “political and malicious”, saying they first emerged during the 2019 general election period, when opposition figures alleged that the funds had been diverted for political purposes.

According to him, the Federal Government publicly denied the allegation at the time, but the controversy continued to damage the reputations of military service chiefs.

He faulted the Ministry of Defence for failing to publicly provide a detailed account of the disbursements and contract awards, insisting that accountability should rest with the institution responsible for managing the funds.

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“The $1 billion arms procurement controversy festered because the institution that managed the funds, the Ministry of Defence, remained silent while Service Chiefs absorbed criticism,” he said.

Buratai called for the establishment of a Defence Procurement Transparency Portal to publish information on contracts awarded, contractors and delivery timelines, subject to legitimate national security restrictions.

He said the proposed platform would help the public understand how defence procurement funds were utilised without exposing sensitive operational information.

“When the media asks where the money went, the answer should come from the ministry that spent it, not from military officers who never touched it,” he said.

The former army chief also called for quarterly accountability bulletins summarising court-martial outcomes involving alleged human rights violations and operational misconduct.

He said such disclosures should protect the rights of accused personnel and avoid compromising ongoing military operations.

On allegations of human rights violations by security personnel, Buratai said credible complaints should be investigated and prosecuted where evidence substantiated wrongdoing.

“The military is not above the law,” he said, stressing the need for transparent disciplinary procedures capable of addressing misconduct at all levels.

At the same conference, former Senate President and Chairman of the Senate Committee on Defence, Ahmad Lawan, called for more predictable funding for the Armed Forces and other security agencies.

Lawan proposed dedicating a portion of national revenue to defence and security spending, alongside making military and security agency budgets a first-line charge to reduce delays in releasing funds.

He argued that troops could not be expected to achieve better operational results without adequate weapons, equipment and other resources.

Lawan said the National Assembly had consistently supported executive requests for security funding, adding that improved funding arrangements could help the military procure equipment in bulk and plan operations more effectively.

Meanwhile, Minister of Information and National Orientation Mohammed Idris said military force alone could not resolve Nigeria’s security challenges.

Idris, represented by Voice of Nigeria Director-General Jibrin Ndace, said military operations needed to be supported by reliable intelligence, modern technology, coordination among security agencies and cooperation with local communities.

He said the Federal Government was pursuing military modernisation, improved surveillance and intelligence-led operations to address terrorism, banditry and other security threats.

Idris also disclosed that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu had directed the preparation of a comprehensive National Threat Assessment and a rolling five-year Strategic Defence Operations Plan in August 2026.

According to the minister, the initiatives were intended to establish security priorities, improve coordination and guide the deployment of resources.

He said the President had also approved salary increases of between 30 and 80 per cent for Armed Forces personnel, effective September 2026, to recognise their sacrifices and improve welfare.

Idris urged journalists to verify information and report responsibly on security operations, while emphasising that responsible reporting should not shield the government or security agencies from scrutiny.

He said the media must continue asking difficult questions and holding public institutions accountable while respecting legitimate operational sensitivities.

Buratai’s demand has renewed attention on the management of the $1 billion defence procurement fund, with the former army chief insisting that the Ministry of Defence should provide an account of how the money was spent. His remarks do not, on their own, establish that the funds were misappropriated.

$1bn Arms Fund: Buratai Challenges Defence Ministry to Account for Money

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Forgery Probe: Police Arrest Ex-Imo Governor Rochas Okorocha in Abuja

Published

7 hours ago

October 13, 2026

Trends Admin

Forgery Probe: Police Arrest Ex-Imo Governor Rochas Okorocha in Abuja

Former Imo State Governor Rochas Okorocha has been arrested by the Nigeria Police Force over allegations of criminal conspiracy, forgery and impersonation linked to the disputed All Progressives Congress (APC) Imo West senatorial primary.

Okorocha was reportedly arrested on Monday night, October 12, 2026, at REIZ Continental Hotel in Abuja, following a court order authorising his arrest after he allegedly failed to honour previous police invitations.

However, the former governor was released on bail after approximately one hour of interrogation and was directed to return to the Force Headquarters on Tuesday for further questioning, according to reports citing the Imo State Police Command.

The police reportedly invited Okorocha for questioning on September 2, but the appointment was rescheduled to September 8 at the request of his lawyers. He allegedly failed to attend the rescheduled meeting, prompting further action by the authorities.

The investigation centres on a disputed document purporting to show that Okorocha won the APC senatorial primary for Imo West, also known as Orlu Zone, ahead of the 2027 general elections.

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has disowned the document, insisting that its official records identify Imo State Governor Hope Uzodimma as the winner of the May 18, 2026, primary election and the party’s duly submitted candidate for the senatorial district.

In letters dated October 8, the commission reportedly asked the police and the Department of State Services (DSS) to investigate the disputed primary results, describing the document naming Okorocha as the winner as fictitious.

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INEC reportedly attached copies of the official primary report and the disputed document to its correspondence with the security agencies, requesting an investigation into the document’s origin and authenticity.

A Senior Magistrate Court in Abuja had also issued bench warrants for the arrest of Okorocha, former senator Ifeanyi Araraume, Timothy Ama Chuks and Amen Okorocha over allegations of criminal conspiracy, forgery and the tendering of false documents.

The allegations concern the purported alteration or presentation of APC primary results to show Okorocha as the winner despite the party’s official submission naming Uzodimma.

Before news of his arrest emerged, Okorocha had publicly denied reports that a court issued a warrant for his arrest, challenging those making the claims to publish the relevant court documents.

He also disputed suggestions that INEC had indicted him, arguing that the commission’s correspondence requested an investigation into a document in circulation rather than establishing his guilt.

The former governor has maintained that the controversy should be addressed through due process.

The latest arrest report marks a new stage in the dispute over the APC’s Imo West senatorial ticket, which has become a point of contention ahead of the 2027 elections.

Okorocha, who governed Imo State from 2011 to 2019 and later represented Imo West in the Senate, has also pursued legal action relating to the primary election and INEC’s recognition of Uzodimma.

The police have not publicly disclosed all the details of the investigation, and the allegations against Okorocha and the other individuals remain subject to judicial determination.

His release on bail does not amount to a determination of the allegations, while further questioning and investigation are expected to clarify the circumstances surrounding the disputed document.