Opinion
OPINION: Refining Without Relief: Nigeria In The Midst Of Global Oil Wars!
OPINION: Refining Without Relief: Nigeria In The Midst Of Global Oil Wars!
The vision was bold. The expectation was clear. And the promise was powerful. When the Dangote Refinery began operations, it was hailed as Nigeria’s long-awaited escape from decades of energy contradiction, which involves exporting crude oil while importing refined fuel at high costs. It was meant to guarantee supply, stabilise prices, conserve foreign exchange, and most importantly, deliver relief to ordinary Nigerians.
What appears to be a distinct contradiction is that, despite months into its operation, a different reality is emerging, with fuel prices rising sharply. Inflationary pressures are intensifying. This occurrence has forced Nigerians to ask a difficult question once again, one that calls for an urgent answer.: Why does a country that produces and refines crude oil still suffer the consequences of global oil shocks?
Looking at the trend, it is clear that the answer lies not just in geopolitics, but in the deeper structure of Nigeria’s oil economy, where global pricing, policy gaps, and now the looming risk of monopoly intersect.
With the recent development, the latest alarming surge in petrol prices has been driven largely by escalating tensions in the Middle East. This is particularly the U.S-Israel strikes on Iran and retaliatory measures from Tehran. A well-known fact is that at the centre of the crisis is the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil transit route through which a significant portion of global supply flows. Any disruption, even a speculative one, triggers immediate spikes in crude prices.
Within a week, oil prices jumped from the mid-$60 range to nearly $120 per barrel. For global markets, this is expected. For Nigeria, it is devastatingly ironic. This is because, despite having crude oil in abundance and despite refining it locally, Nigeria remains fully exposed and this has continued to re-echo the same ironic question.
In a rare moment of corporate candor, the refinery’s leadership acknowledged this reality. The plant is deeply affected by global shocks. Crude oil, even when sourced locally, is priced at international benchmarks. Shipping costs have surged dramatically, from about $800,000 per tanker to as high as $3.5m. Insurance premiums have climbed, and logistics have become significantly more expensive, with total costs further driving higher.
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Even more revealing is the refinery’s sourcing structure. Only about 30 per cent – 35 per cent of crude comes from the Nigerian government supply under the crude-for-naira framework. A significant portion is still purchased in U.S. dollars on the open market, while another 30 per cent – 40 per cent is sourced internationally, including from the United States and other regions. This means the refinery is not insulated; it is integrated into the global oil system. The implication is unavoidable as local refining has not translated into local pricing control.
The impact on Nigerians has been immediate and severe as petrol prices have surged from under N800 earlier in the year to over N1,200, and in some regions, it is even more alarming when the prices skyrocketed close to N1,400 per litre. Within weeks, multiple price increases have been recorded, driven largely by global crude price spikes and rising logistics costs. Doubtless, the country has witnessed the consequences ripple across the economy as transport fares rise, food prices increase, businesses struggle with higher operating costs, and inflation accelerates.
The development has attracted the attention of the labour unions and the organised private sector, prompting them to raise concerns and alarm about the consequences of job losses, business closures, and worsening hardship if the trend continues with each passing day, witnessing a daily increase and causing possible artificial scarcity.
Nigeria remains trapped in a painful contradiction. It produces crude oil. It refines crude oil. Yet it cannot protect its citizens from global oil volatility. As Aliko Dangote himself acknowledged, Nigeria has no direct role in the conflict driving these price increases, yet it bears the consequences due to global economic interdependence.
In a real sense, this is the deeper tragedy, as Nigeria has achieved capacity without control.
At the heart of the issue is a structural reality, crude oil is priced globally, not locally. Even under the crude-for-naira arrangement, pricing is benchmarked against international rates. This means refineries pay global crude prices, fuel prices reflect global market conditions, and domestic consumers absorb international shocks. In essence, Nigeria has moved refining home without bringing pricing sovereignty with it.
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To be fair, the Dangote Refinery has played a stabilising role. Nigeria still enjoys relatively lower petrol prices compared to many global markets. In several countries, supply disruptions have led to panic buying and rationing, while Nigeria has maintained a consistent supply. As the refinery’s CEO aptly noted, what is worse than $120 oil is no oil. The refinery has prevented scarcity, but it has not prevented high prices. Availability, in this case, has not equated to affordability, which is the painful part for the citizens.
While much of the current debate focuses on pricing, another critical issue is quietly taking shape, which is the risk of market concentration. Dangote Refinery deserves credit for its scale and ambition, but scale brings power, and power demands oversight. If fuel importers are gradually pushed out and no competing refineries emerge at scale, Nigeria could find itself transitioning from a public sector monopoly to a private sector dominance led by a single player.
Nigeria has seen this pattern before. In the cement industry, increased domestic production did not necessarily translate into lower prices. Limited competition allowed prices to remain elevated despite local capacity. The same risk now looms in the downstream oil sector. Without competition, price-setting power becomes concentrated, supply risks increase, and consumer protection weakens. In a country with fragile regulatory institutions, this is not a theoretical concern; it is a real and present danger.
No one should perceive this wrongly, because it is important, however, not to misplace blame. It should be made known that the Dangote Refinery is not a charity; it is a private enterprise operating within market realities. It must recover its investment, manage costs, and deliver returns. Its exposure to global pricing is not a failure of intent but a function of the system within which it operates.
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The real issue lies in the structure of the market and the absence of sufficient competition.
It is no longer news that Nigeria’s downstream sector is now largely deregulated following the removal of fuel subsidies. While deregulation has reduced government fiscal burden and encouraged private investment, it has also exposed consumers to price volatility and limited the scope for intervention, as this has continued to cause pain. Markets, in theory, deliver efficiency, but in practice, they require competition and effective regulation to function properly. Without these, deregulation can simply replace one form of inefficiency with another.
Nigeria does not need to weaken Dangote Refinery; it needs to multiply it. The goal should be to build a competitive refining ecosystem to replace one dominant structure with another. The truth is not far from this, as part of a lasting solution, it requires encouraging new refinery investments, removing bottlenecks for players such as BUA and modular refineries, ensuring transparent crude allocation, providing open access to pipelines and storage infrastructure, and enforcing strong antitrust regulations.
Competition remains the most effective regulator of price, which is sacrosanct and it protects consumers, strengthens supply security, and reduces systemic risk.
This must also be perceived beyond competition, which calls for the government to act strategically. The fact is that when supplying crude to local refineries at discounted or stabilised rates, expanding naira-based transactions, and introducing temporary relief measures during global crises are all viable options that must be put into consideration. Energy is too critical to be left entirely to market forces, especially in a developing economy where millions are highly vulnerable to economic shocks.
It is time that Nigerians understood that the nation’s refining crisis has been decades in the making, and it cannot be solved by a single refinery, no matter how large. If asked, it will be said that this is a fact that can’t be argued. The Dangote Refinery is undoubtedly a turning point, but it will only remain so if it is embedded within broader systemic reform. Otherwise, Nigeria risks replacing one form of dependency with another, from import dependence to domestic concentration.
The question is no longer whether Nigeria can refine crude oil. It can. The real question is whether Nigeria can build a system that ensures fair pricing, competitive markets, consumer protection, and economic resilience, as these are exactly the core answers.
If global conflicts continue to dictate local fuel prices, if monopoly risks go unchecked, and if citizens remain vulnerable despite abundant resources, then the promise of local refining will remain unfulfilled, as it will bring no expected relief.
What is playing out is the well-known fact that in refining, as in democracy, concentration of power is dangerous. And in both, the strongest safeguard remains the same, competition, transparency, and institutions that serve the public interest.
OPINION: Refining Without Relief: Nigeria In The Midst Of Global Oil Wars!
—Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos and can be reached via: blaise.udunze@gmail.com
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Opinion
WHO WILL SPEAK FOR WASILAT? WHEN TRADITION BECOMES HUMILIATION, JUSTICE MUST SPEAK
WHO WILL SPEAK FOR WASILAT? WHEN TRADITION BECOMES HUMILIATION, JUSTICE MUST SPEAK
A young Nigerian lady, Wasilat, has become the centre of a disturbing controversy that should concern every defender of human rights, justice, and the rule of law.
According to her own account during a live interview on Lagelu FM, she did not film the Olóòlù masquerade itself. She said she only recorded the gathering of people and later uploaded the video to TikTok. She further stated that she was advised to remove the video, and she complied.
If her account is true, the events that followed should alarm every conscientious citizen.
She alleged that she was arrested the following day by followers of the olóòlù and later detained by the police. Images that circulated widely on social media appeared to show her publicly humiliated—made to wear a red wrapper, adorned with ritual objects, compelled to carry a live She-goat, and having her head shaved in public while being filmed. She also stated that these rituals were arranged between her mother and those involved while she was in detention not with her own consent.
Whether one believes in the spiritual significance of the Olóòlù tradition is beside the point.
The questions are:
1- Can any Nigerian be deprived of liberty, publicly humiliated, or compelled to participate in rituals against their will simply because of a traditional belief?
2- If the belief is that any woman who sees Olóòlù will automatically suffer supernatural consequences, why would human beings need to arrest, detain, and punish the alleged offender the next day?
3- If the supernatural claim is true, why was human intervention necessary?
4- If it is not true, then what justification exists for the alleged humiliation?
These are legitimate questions. They are not attacks on culture. They are questions about justice.
Nigeria is governed by law, not fear.
The Constitution guarantees the dignity of every human person. It protects personal liberty. It protects freedom of conscience. It prohibits degrading treatment.
No tradition, however ancient, should become a licence for intimidation, coercion, or public disgrace.
Culture deserves respect.
Human dignity deserves greater respect.
If Wasilat’s account is accurate, then what happened to her represents far more than a disagreement over tradition. It raises concerns about arbitrary arrest, coercion, degrading treatment, invasion of privacy, and possible violations of her constitutional rights.
Even more troubling is the public circulation of images depicting her alleged humiliation. In the digital age, such images can haunt a victim for years, affecting education, employment, mental well-being, and social acceptance.
Justice cannot remain silent.
Today it is Wasilat.
Tomorrow it could be another young woman.
The silence of good people is often the greatest ally of injustice.
This is therefore a call—not for violence, not for hatred against any cultural group—but for lawful action.
We call upon human rights organisations, the legal community, civil society organisations, women’s rights advocates, youth groups, and all lovers of justice to demand an impartial investigation into these allegations.
Let the truth be established.
If Wasilat’s rights were violated, those responsible should be held accountable in accordance with the law.
If public officials participated in or enabled unlawful conduct, they too should answer before the law.
No Nigerian should be subjected to degrading treatment in the name of culture.
No woman should be publicly humiliated because of superstition.
No citizen should lose her dignity because others choose fear over justice.
A society is judged not by how it treats the powerful, but by how it protects the vulnerable.
Justice delayed encourages injustice.
Justice denied encourages oppression.
Justice done restores confidence in both culture and the law.
Today, let us ask one simple question:
If this happened to your daughter, your sister, your wife, or your mother, would you remain silent?
If your answer is “No,” then now is the time to speak—not with anger, but with courage; not with violence, but with justice; not with vengeance, but with the unwavering conviction that every Nigerian deserves dignity, liberty, and equal protection under the law.
Justice for Wasilat is justice for every Nigerian woman.
Almudeer Ajiginni
Director, The City of knowledge /SSA to National chairman PCRC
4/8/2026.
WHO WILL SPEAK FOR WASILAT? WHEN TRADITION BECOMES HUMILIATION, JUSTICE MUST SPEAK
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Opinion
Five days in Salvador, Brazil’s Yoruba city, By Farooq Kperogi
Five days in Salvador, Brazil’s Yoruba city, By Farooq Kperogi
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Opinion
Stop, CBN! The baby is in the bathwater
Stop, CBN! The baby is in the bathwater
Tunde Odesola
(Published in The PUNCH, on Friday, July 31, 2026)
I invite you to join me on this journey to the Central Bank of Nigeria headquarters in Abuja, where I shall be meeting with the CBN Governor, Mr Olayemi Michael Cardoso. The meeting is neither official nor scheduled, but its importance highlights the potential harm a recent CBN directive portends for the nation’s banking sector.
The trip will be long and windy; I will be driving in my rugged BMW, which can only take a few passengers. So, the privilege to be on the trip will be on a ‘first come, first served’ basis. The journey is a rescue mission! The CBN is about to disrupt the equilibrium in the banking sector over advertisement fines, giving no room for feedback or consultation with stakeholders. Even the itinerant thrift collector, Bàbá AlájọṢómólú, talks with stakeholders.
Having traversed the nation’s banking corridors for forty-four years, with nearly three of those years as the helmsman at CBN, it is not too much to expect Cardoso, at 69, to possess the wisdom of an elephant.
I looked up Cardoso’s name half‑expecting to find “Solomon” tucked in the middle; instead, I found “Michael.” And the more I weighed both names, the clearer it became that Michael suits him better. Archangel Michael stands for protection and justice, flaming sword in hand, while Solomon’s famed judgment has long been questioned by ethicists who argue that no ruler should threaten or appear willing to endanger an innocent child, insisting that the outcome of Solomon’s judgment depended on emotional reaction, which could have been mistaken.
Instructively, the case I’m discussing with Cardoso rests more on protection and justice than wisdom, though justice rarely walks without wisdom in its shadow.
It was in the groundbreaking book, “Frames of Mind: The Theory of Multiple Intelligences,” written by Harvard professor Howard Gardner and published in 1983, that I discovered why I always muddle up music notes whenever I sing. It was Gardner’s book that told me music intelligence was among the eight types of intelligences there are. Gardner’s work opened my eyes to a moment of epiphany when I realised that no matter what I do, I can never sing according to notes because I do not possess music intelligence. Just look in my direction if you’re looking for the king of ‘off-beat’ singing. You won’t have to mock me for too long though, as I shall enrol in a music school soon.
But Bob Marley wasn’t beset with my “off-key” fate. Still the greatest reggae music band after 45 years of dissolution, Bob Marley and the Wailers bequeathed to humanity timeless songs such as ‘One Love’, ‘No Woman, No Cry’, ‘War’, ‘Buffalo Soldier’, ‘Exodus’, ‘Could You Be Loved’, ‘Three Little Birds’, and many more. The acronym of Marley’s evergreen band is BMW.
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If you ask me which I prefer between going down on bended knees before a cheering crowd in the street, engagement ring in hand, asking my beloved, “Will you marry me?” and holding my partner in high esteem at all times? I would choose the latter. What is the essence of public display of affection when the man is a King Kong at home?
Anyway, the whole essence of dating and courting becomes promising when the man proposes and tells the lady to “Be My Wife”: BMW.
Germany produced Adolf Hitler, the mass murderer. It also gave the world great men like Karl Marx, Beethoven, Goethe, Kant, Nietzsche, Engels, and Bismarck, even as the auto world owes gratitude to Germany’s genius, which produced Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, Maybach, Volkswagen, Audi, Opel, etc.
Germany is also the home of Bayerische Motoren Werke, the makers of my very first car, a three-series BMW. Is there someone who didn’t like their first car? I was besotted by my darling BMW. Young and dashing, with a dream job in hand, my silver BMW represented the five stars on the epaulette of a bachelor ready to explore possibilities, promise and passion.
One day, I took my BMW to my panel beater, whose shack flanked the Central Bank of Nigeria, Akure branch. I had just bought a stereo and the gadget wasn’t sitting properly in the radio cavity. The stereo jutted out a jot from the cavity, and I felt the panel beater would have a device to slightly expand the cavity for the radio to sit smugly.
“I’ll be back soon,” I told the guy as I trekked to my bank across the road. When I got back from the bank, the panel beater sprouted from under a car; a big smile spread on his face. “I have finished your work,” he beamed. I joked with him as I paid him his charge, and we both walked to my BMW. I got into my car and froze as I looked at the radio.
The stereo was right there sitting in the cavity. But the panel beater had gouged a big hollow under the cavity to allow the stereo to fit in, leaving an unsightly gash, like missing incisors. I looked at him for an explanation. Heartily, he sprinted from my side to the passenger’s side, got into the car and regaled me about the genius he employed to perform the magic.
I felt like punching him right in the face. But the close range he was to me in the car wouldn’t allow me to deliver the type of punches I wanted. I was too angry to talk as I watched him fiddling with the stereo and telling me the wisdom that produced his act of vandalism. So, I got out of the car, paced about as I wrestled with the thoughts of how best to avenge the wanton destruction.
When other craftsmen saw my state, they abandoned what they were doing and came over to me, asking, “Ọ̀gá, kíló ṣẹlẹ̀. Wetin happen?” It was the panel beater who answered the questions. “Ọ̀gá ń bínú nítorí iṣẹ́kékeré tí mo ṣe ni,” he announced, smiling, “Ọ̀gá is angry because of the little job I did.” So, his colleagues went to the car to see the little job he did. Everyone was aghast, vehemently condemning his stupidity and calling him names.
I got into my car and drove off with my stereo. I didn’t even remember to collect the money I paid him. That was about 30 years ago.
The panel beater’s reckless solution – a crude fix that destroys what it intends to improve – is exactly what the CBN is about to inflict on Nigeria’s banking sector. A badly worded directive that threatens to deduct from the Cash Reserve Ratio kept with the CBN, following a five-day ultimatum, is not regulation. It is panel beaters at work at the CBN
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Now, let’s unbare the issues. In a July 24, 2026, circular to all commercial banks aka Deposit Money Banks (DMBs), the CBN recalled a November 27, 2025, circular, alleging that many banks had failed to comply “with regulatory provisions on advertisement,” thereby ordering “immediate withdrawal of non-compliant advertisements”.
The latest circular entitled “Imposition of Regulatory Sanctions For Breaches of Advertising Requirement,” goes on to say that the CBN had conducted a review of non-compliant advertisements, promotions and related communications by affected commercial banks, adding that “continued circulation of non-compliant advertisements and promotional materials after the November 27, 2025, circular” has attracted fines that run into billions of naira across the banks. My investigation revealed that over 95% of commercial banks are affected in a wave of fines that range between N250m and N500m.
Accusing the affected commercial banks of unprofessionalism in their advertisements, the CBN alleged that, “Misleading claims, omitted conditions and prohibited inducements distort consumer decisions, cause avoidable harm and give non-compliant institutions an unfair advantage over those that observe the rules.” The apex bank added that “penalties are imposed pursuant to Section 95(f) and (g) of BOFIA 2020,” stressing that “the sanctions reflect the nature, severity and persistence of the breach, as well as the consumer protection risks arising therefrom”. BOFIA is the Banks and Other Financial Institutions Act. It encourages sound banking practices and the prevention of misleading representations in promotions and gambling-like advertisements.
To put the scenario in perspective, a layman’s explanation would suffice. The CBN is frowning on advertisements and promotional materials that say bank customers can win a certain amount of money if they participate in a promotion. In the wisdom of the CBN, such a promotion is unethical because not all bank customers can win the promised package.
As good as CBN’s oversight appears in this context, it will amount to cutting off the nose to spite the face if Cardoso does not take a critical look at the whole process holistically. For example, the banks coming under the hammer of the CBN obtained approvals from relevant statutory regulators such as the Advertising Regulatory Council of Nigeria (ARCON) and the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC). Does this mean that the alleged breaches the CBN is complaining about are different from the laws of the nation’s apex regulatory bodies for advertising and consumer protection? Are there two sets of advertising and consumer protection laws in the country? Should there not be a consultative meeting among the CBN, the affected banks and the nation’s advertising and consumer protection bodies so that a proper perspective of all the issues could be unfurled before commercial banks’ balances with the CBN are deducted?
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Given the interconnected nature of the banking system in Nigeria, as is the case in most jurisdictions around the world, the practice of deducting regulatory penalties directly from commercial banks’ accounts maintained with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) carries the risk of creating unintended disruptions. Such deductions can adversely affect the liquidity reserves of Deposit Money Banks (DMBs), funds that ultimately underpin customer deposits and financial obligations. Consequently, while regulatory sanctions are an important tool for enforcing compliance, care must be taken to ensure that their implementation does not inadvertently undermine the very financial stability and depositor interests that the CBN is mandated to protect. This concern becomes particularly relevant for several reasons.
Except the CBN takes the role of another panel beater, it should be crystal clear that if substantial penalties are debited directly from a bank’s balances maintained with it, the following industry implications may arise:
Firstly, deductions may temporarily reduce the affected bank’s liquidity position, particularly where the sanction is significant and applied without prior provisioning.
Also, the penalties may negatively impact profitability by reducing earnings available to shareholders and limiting resources that could otherwise be deployed for lending, technology investments, branch expansion or customer service improvements.
It should be noted that widespread industry sanctions can create operational pressure on banks, prompting emergency compliance reviews, forensic audits and the diversion of management attention from business growth initiatives to regulatory remediation efforts.
If the sanctions are imposed simultaneously on a large number of banks, the cumulative effect could tighten liquidity within the banking sector, albeit temporarily, depending on the magnitude of the deductions and prevailing market conditions.
Such actions may increase regulatory risk perceptions among investors, potentially affecting market sentiment, valuation metrics and confidence in the stability of the operating environment.
And there may be reputational consequences for affected institutions, particularly where sanctions receive extensive media coverage. Customers and counterparties may seek explanations regarding the nature of the breaches, even where the infractions relate to historical marketing materials rather than prudential or solvency concerns.
However, arguing from a regulatory perspective, the CBN may contend that enforcement actions are necessary to preserve market discipline, promote consumer protection, ensure compliance with BOFIA, and maintain confidence in the banking system. Sound argument!
But what is the motive behind a punitive circular that does not state the particular infractions committed by respective banks – in the face of the fact that most of the alleged infractions had been corrected by some of the banks? Why issue sanctions without allowing affected banks to respond and present their cases? By holding affected commercial banks by the jugular, without giving room for fair hearing, the CBN has chosen to be draconian. This is a disturbing trend.
I strongly think that the CBN should look inwards and evolve an organic solution to the sectoral challenge because where the alleged infractions relate to historical advertisements already withdrawn by banks, and where there is no evidence of customer loss, financial instability, fraud or prudential misconduct, a collaborative remediation framework may achieve regulatory objectives more effectively than punitive sanctions of a magnitude capable of affecting industry liquidity and operational efficiency
Cardoso, I have laid out the cards. Please, deal wisely. Use your flaming sword of protection and justice fairly.
Email: tundeodes2003@yahoo.com
Facebook: @Tunde Odesola
X: @Tunde_Odesola
Stop, CBN! The baby is in the bathwater
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