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Niger Coup: What options are available to Tinubu, ECOWAS?

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3 years ago

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Niger Coup: What options are available to Tinubu, ECOWAS?

A news Analysis by Premium Times

 

As Nigeria’s President and ECOWAS Chairman Bola Tinubu prepares to host what may become a significant moment in the recent history of the West African region and his term as leader of the bloc, he is faced with a cocktail of options from which he must choose wisely.

On Sunday, leaders of ECOWAS will convene in Abuja for a special session at the request of Mr Tinubu to discuss the recent coup in Niger, the sixth in the sub-region since 2020.

ECOWAS condemned the coup with the chairperson promising that ECOWAS and the international community would do everything to defend democracy and ensure democratic governance continues to take firm root in the sub-region.

The coup in Niger has been widely condemned by the international community with the African Union (AU) giving the coup plotters 15 days to relinquish power However, locally in Niger, the coup has elicited mixed reactions as some, including the army, are in support of the presidential guards responsible for the rebellion and others against it.

Sunday’s session is expected to produce a roadmap on how to tackle the situation in Niger while also demonstrating the unacceptability of coups in the subregion as Mr Tinubu said in his first speech as leader of ECOWAS.

A source close to the Nigerian president but who does not have permission to speak to the press said ECOWAS ambassadors already made recommendations to the heads of state who will attend the meeting.

He told PREMIUM TIMES that decisions will be taken at the meeting on how to deal with the challenge in Niger.

What are the options available?

Although the ECOWAS Protocol on Democracy and Good Governance spells out steps Mr Tinubu can take or initiate in an attempt to restore constitutional rule in Niger, they are not without consequences.

“In the event that democracy is abruptly brought to an end by any means or where there is a massive violation of Human Rights in a Member State, ECOWAS may impose sanctions on the State concerned,” the protocol stipulates.

It goes further to state that the sanctions may take several forms, in increasing order of severity including refusal to support the candidates presented by the Member State concerned for elective posts in international organisations, refusal to organise ECOWAS meetings in the Member State concerned and suspension of the Member State concerned from all ECOWAS decision-making bodies.

“During the period of the suspension, the Member State concerned shall be obliged to pay its dues for the period. During the period of suspension, ECOWAS shall continue to monitor, encourage and support the efforts being made by the suspended Member State to return to normalcy and constitutional order.”

The above recommendations of the protocol may seem to be the magic wand needed to return Niger to status-quo but history has shown how ineffective the sanctions are. Mali and Burkina Faso are clear examples of where sanctions did not serve as a deterrent to coup plotters.

For Olubukola Adesina, a professor of political science at the University of Ibadan, Mr Tinubu has only two options to pick.

“It is either he talks tough or tries to use diplomacy,” she said, adding that if he talks tough, he may want to consider sanctions, travel bans or even an invasion but one cannot tell what the consequences of an invasion may be in this age and time.

On the other hand, Ms Adesina noted that ECOWAS can try to convince the coup plotters to return to democratic rule by organising elections as soon as possible especially because the coup plotters appear to have the support of the people.

“Because for a coup to be successful, it means that people are not averse to it. So the only thing we can do is to try to see how the coup leader can be convinced to convene a democratic election quickly,” she told PREMIUM TIMES.

PREMIUM TIMES reported that the coup plotters claimed that the coup was carried out due to the deteriorating security situation and the bad social and economic conditions in Niger. They have also received support from the army.

Ms Adesina, however, recommended that ECOWAS toes the line of diplomacy as oftentimes, sanctions are only symbolic.

“Coups are no longer fashionable. Democracy remains the way forward albeit fraught with its own challenges,” she added.

A former Nigerian Chief of Army Staff, Martin Agwai, expanded the options available to include diplomacy, negotiation and talks with external partners if they exist.

The retired military officer suggested that pressure from various political and economic blocs like the UN, EU, AU and ECOWAS could be deployed in removing the coup plotters legally. However, this can only work if the mutinous soldiers do not have the support of the people, he said.

In the case of Niger, they do not only have the support of the people but also have the support of the army and so, diplomatic pressure may not work.

Another option available to Mr Tinubu according to Mr Agwai is to deploy the military to sweep out the coup plotters should they refuse to hand over power to the democratically elected president.

But Mr Agwai noted, that this will end as a bad choice as there will be loss of lives and property which may further plunge Niger into a worse situation. He added that ECOWAS would also have to ascertain if there are any external influences or interests in the coup and may consider talks.

For Gbemisola Animasawun, an associate professor at the Centre for Peace and Strategic Studies, University of Ilorin, sanctions are not efficient and should not be an option in Sunday’s talks.

“ECOWAS should negotiate with the coup leaders,” he said.

He noted that sanctions only impoverish the people and exclude the actual culprits. When this happens, the sanction becomes a tool in the hand of the coup plotters where they play on the emotions of the people, convincing them that the sanctioning power has ulterior motives aside from entrenching democracy.

This will most likely be the case in Niger given the basis upon which the coup plotters claimed to have ousted President Mohamed Bazoum and the support they have received so far, he said.

Anti-French sentiments have continued to grow strongly within French-speaking states in Africa and will be a convenient spin to use in order to rally Nigeriens against any sanctions.

Mr Animasawun noted that the coup in Niger is not entirely a surprise given the coup contagion, especially in Francophone Africa. However, to address Niger, Mr Tinubu has to choose between stability and democracy which may not necessarily be exclusive of each other but will require the president (Tinubu) to tread carefully, he said.

“Stability and Democracy because an unstable Niger has implications for Nigeria’s war on terrorism. Whatever happens in Niger has implications for our national security and geopolitical interest. It also has an implication for the personae of Tinubu as the president of Nigeria and the leader of ECOWAS,” he explained.

Contrary to the general assumption that democracy brings about stability, Mr Animasawun explained, it is not automatic because if democracy does not deliver and fails to be inclusive then there will be no stability.

“Not all undemocratic states are unstable and not all democratic states are stable,” he said, giving the example of Libya which was stable until Gaddafi was removed.

According to him, Libya was stable because it was a kind of government that met the needs of the people but for some freedoms that were curtailed. Its economic indices at the time however placed it above many economies in Africa.

“It is the push towards democracy that has made Libya now unstable,” Mr Animasawun said.

Additionally, Mr Tinubu must balance his role as the leader of ECOWAS and also as the president of Nigeria keeping in mind Nigeria’s geopolitical interest (security) not necessarily the type of government, he said.

 

When asked what the implication of choosing between stability and democracy will be, Mr Animasawun said while one will be realistic, the other will be symbolic.

“The realistic part is that if we go for stability, that would likely be at the expense of democracy which will take away from the symbolic position or value of President Tinubu as the leader of ECOWAS,” he explained.

A middle ground exists, he believes. It will be to find a reconciliation between stability and democracy which is quickly putting in place a transition plan as the coup leader cannot be forcefully removed as it may worsen an already bad case.

 

He noted that Mr Tinubu must take lessons on legitimacy and good governance from what is happening in Niger especially considering the sentiments around his own elections in Nigeria.

 

“One fundamental basis for successful mediation is the credentials of the mediator. If a mediator is faced with questions of credibility or legitimacy then he or she must tread cautiously,” Wilson Ijide, a retired colonel and lecturer at the Department of Psychology and Institute for Peace and Strategic Studies, University of Ibadan, said alluding to Mr Tinubu’s own challenges.

He said this crisis of legitimacy faced by Mr Tinubu will naturally affect the efficacy of the intervention by ECOWAS.

In spite of the foregoing, “the options available to Tinubu and ECOWAS ahead of Sunday’s meeting is to face reality and negotiate ways towards smooth handover to a democratically elected government within a feasible timetable,” Mr Ijide told PREMIUM TIMES, adding that there should be no grandstanding by ECOWAS on this.

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Tinubu Urges ECOWAS to Condemn Afrophobic Attacks in South Africa

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2 weeks ago

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July 20, 2026

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Tinubu Urges ECOWAS to Condemn Afrophobic Attacks in South Africa

Tinubu Urges ECOWAS to Condemn Afrophobic Attacks in South Africa

President Bola Tinubu has called on the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to present a united front against Afrophobic attacks in South Africa, urging the regional bloc to escalate the matter to the African Union and reminding South Africa of the sacrifices made by other African nations during its liberation struggle.

President Tinubu, represented by Vice President Kashim Shettima, made the appeal during the 69th Ordinary Session of the ECOWAS Authority of Heads of State and Government held on Sunday in Lungi, Sierra Leone. The summit, hosted by Sierra Leone’s President Julius Maada Bio, brought together regional leaders to deliberate on political, economic, and security issues affecting West Africa. The gathering provided a platform for leaders to address pressing concerns, including the rising wave of xenophobic violence targeting African migrants in South Africa, which has drawn widespread condemnation across the continent.

The President condemned, in the strongest terms, the recent attacks on Nigerian citizens and other Africans in the Republic of South Africa. “As already stated by His Excellency, the President of Ghana, ECOWAS should present a united voice in this condemnation,” Tinubu said through Vice President Shettima. He further urged the regional body to table the matter before the next session of the Authority of Heads of State and Government of the African Union, saying this would “send a clear message that this type of intolerance is totally unacceptable under any guise.” Tinubu reminded South Africa that the freedom it currently enjoys was the result of the sacrifices and liberation efforts of African countries, including Nigeria, which played a significant role in the anti-apartheid struggle. He disclosed that the Nigerian Government had already evacuated over 1,490 of its citizens from harm’s way in seven batches and was prepared to engage further on the matter. The evacuations, which began in June following the outbreak of violence, were completed with the arrival of 305 returnees in Lagos on July 15, bringing the total number of evacuees to 1,490. The attacks have strained diplomatic relations between Nigeria and South Africa, with Nigeria’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Bianca Odumegwu-Ojukwu, previously hinting that Nigeria could consider retaliatory measures.

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Beyond the security concerns, Tinubu reaffirmed Nigeria’s commitment to the principles enshrined in the ECOWAS Protocol on Democracy and Good Governance and other regional frameworks. He also assured that Nigeria remained committed to the setting up of the Counter Terrorism Force and the strengthening of the ECOWAS Standby Force “with a view to enhancing counter-terrorism cooperation, intelligence sharing, joint security operations, and preventive diplomacy to safeguard peace and stability across our region.” President Tinubu further warned against the temptation to tamper with constitutional term limits, stating that “the most effective tool against unconstitutional changes of government and mass protests that is capable of undermining good order is for us to enthrone good governance that delivers more tangible benefits to our citizens.” The President also declared Nigeria’s support for the newly developed ECOWAS Compact for the Future of Regional Integration, describing it as a framework that would strengthen cooperation among member states. He said the compact reflects the region’s commitment to rebuilding public trust in institutions and ensuring that regional integration remains relevant despite emerging geopolitical challenges.

Earlier, President Julius Maada Bio and the Chairman of ECOWAS explained that the summit was organised to reflect on where ECOWAS has come from and where the community must go next. Bio stated that West Africa must enter a new era with confidence, strategic clarity, and stronger determination to shape its own destiny, noting that “dependency narrows the very freedom that challenging partnership is meant to strengthen.” The President of the ECOWAS Commission, Omar Touray, reiterated the resolve of the regional body to strengthen governance and accountability across institutions and deepen policy coordination among member states. He said the commission had reintroduced democratic governance and electoral support mechanisms while strengthening regional responses to security and humanitarian challenges.

A major highlight of the summit was the signing of the Inter-Governmental Agreement for the African Atlantic Gas Pipeline project by the authority. The pipeline, estimated to cost $25 billion, is designed to transport up to 30 billion cubic metres of natural gas annually from Nigeria through 13 West African countries to Morocco, connecting to the European gas network. A dedicated ceremony will subsequently be held in Morocco, during which Morocco and Mauritania will jointly sign the agreement in the presence of Nigeria’s president. United Nations Deputy Secretary-General, Amina Mohammed, also addressed the summit, stressing that the international body has an obligation to support the region in combating terrorism and all forms of crime against humanity. “The United Nations Security Council must clearly hear the voice of Africa and stand behind the solutions that Africa offers,” she said, underscoring the importance of African-led solutions to the continent’s challenges.

Tinubu Urges ECOWAS to Condemn Afrophobic Attacks in South Africa

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16 soldiers killed as terrorists attack military base in Niger Republic

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2 weeks ago

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July 19, 2026

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16 soldiers killed as terrorists attack military base in Niger Republic
Nigerien soldiers

16 soldiers killed as terrorists attack military base in Niger Republic

At least 16 soldiers have been killed and 23 others injured following a deadly terrorist attack on a military deployment in western Niger Republic, underscoring the persistent security crisis facing the Sahel nation despite ongoing military operations against armed extremist groups.

The attack occurred on Friday in the Téra area of Tillabéri Region, a volatile zone near the borders with Mali and Burkina Faso that has witnessed repeated assaults by militant groups linked to Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State.

According to information released by Niger’s state authorities, heavily armed assailants launched an attack on troops stationed in the area, triggering an intense gun battle that resulted in significant casualties among government forces.

Military officials said 16 soldiers lost their lives, while 23 personnel sustained injuries, including nine reported to be in critical condition. Authorities also stated that 15 suspected terrorists were killed during the confrontation.

Following the attack, security forces launched extensive clearance operations across the surrounding communities to track down fleeing attackers, recover weapons and restore security in the affected area.

Officials said military patrols and aerial surveillance have been intensified as part of efforts to prevent further attacks and reassure residents living in border communities that have repeatedly come under threat from extremist groups.

The Tillabéri Region remains one of the most dangerous parts of Niger due to its location within the Liptako-Gourma tri-border area, where militants affiliated with Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP) have carried out numerous attacks against security forces and civilians.

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For more than a decade, Niger Republic has battled a growing insurgency fuelled by jihadist groups operating across the wider Sahel, with violence spreading across remote border regions despite regional and international counterterrorism efforts.

The security situation has remained a major challenge since the country’s military seized power in July 2023, promising to restore stability and strengthen national security. However, attacks on military positions and civilian communities have continued, raising concerns over the effectiveness of ongoing counterterrorism operations.

The latest assault comes amid broader instability across the Sahel, where neighbouring Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger continue to face coordinated attacks by armed extremist groups despite increased military cooperation under the Alliance of Sahel States (AES).

Security analysts warn that militant groups have continued to exploit porous borders, difficult terrain and weak state presence to launch cross-border attacks, recruit fighters and expand their operational networks across the region.

Humanitarian organisations have also expressed concern that the prolonged insecurity has displaced thousands of people, disrupted farming activities and worsened food insecurity in several communities across western Niger.

Authorities have assured citizens that military operations will continue until those responsible for the latest attack are neutralised, while investigations into the incident remain ongoing.

The latest attack highlights the continuing security challenges confronting Niger Republic and the wider Sahel, where governments are under increasing pressure to contain extremist violence and restore lasting peace.

16 soldiers killed as terrorists attack military base in Niger Republic

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Ghanaian TikToker Jailed One Year Over False Ritual Claim Against President

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3 weeks ago

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July 17, 2026

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Ghanaian TikToker Jailed One Year Over False Ritual Claim Against President

Ghanaian TikToker Jailed One Year Over False Ritual Claim Against President

A Ghanaian TikToker, Camilla Alhassan has been sentenced to one year in prison after pleading guilty to charges of offensive conduct and publication of false news over videos she posted about President John Dramani Mahama. Camilla Alhassan, 43, was convicted on Thursday, July 16, 2026, by the Accra Circuit Court for sharing a series of videos alleging, without evidence, that President Mahama sacrificed 32 cows as part of a ritual to help him win the 2024 general election.

Prosecutors told the court that Alhassan, who has more than 70,000 followers on TikTok, published several videos between late June and early July 2026 containing false and offensive allegations against the President and First Lady Lordina Mahama. According to the prosecution, the widely circulated videos included claims that President Mahama performed ritual sacrifices involving 32 cows to secure victory in the 2024 polls. She also alleged that the government’s distribution of sanitary pads to flood victims was an attempt to conceal what she claimed he had done.

Court documents revealed that Alhassan made further unsubstantiated allegations, including claims that President Mahama had committed sexual offences, fathered a child as a result of excessive alcohol consumption, and was responsible for the deaths of former Presidents John Evans Atta Mills and Paa Kwesi Amissah-Arthur. She also made offensive remarks and threats against the lives of the President and First Lady, statements the police said were considered capable of disturbing public peace and undermining national cohesion. Alhassan was arrested on July 9, 2026, through an intelligence-led operation after police intercepted the TikTok videos. She initially appeared before the Accra Circuit Court on July 10, where she pleaded guilty to both charges.

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Before sentencing, Alhassan claimed she was pregnant, which led the court to defer sentencing pending a medical examination. However, a medical examination conducted at the Police Hospital confirmed that she was not pregnant. During the sentencing hearing on July 16, her lawyer, Kwadwo Gyamfi Bonsu, said the court struck out the charge of electronic abuse, holding that it lacked jurisdiction to determine that offence. The court convicted her on the charge of offensive conduct and sentenced her to one year’s imprisonment with hard labour. According to her lawyer, the defence pleaded for a more lenient sentence, but the judge ruled that the increasing prevalence of similar offences warranted a custodial sentence to serve as a deterrent. Under the law, offensive conduct is a misdemeanour carrying a maximum sentence of three years, but the court imposed one year after the defence pleaded in mitigation.

The Ghana Police Service has indicated that steps are being taken to prosecute Alhassan on a separate charge of false communication under the Electronic Communications Act, 2008 (Act 775), before the High Court. The police have cautioned the public against using online platforms to spread false information, issue threats, or publish unlawful content, reminding citizens that while freedom of expression is guaranteed, that right must be exercised responsibly.

The sentencing has sparked significant debate in Ghana about misinformation on social media and the balance between criminal sanctions and freedom of expression. Senior lawyer Kofi Bentil, Vice-President of IMANI Africa, argued that Alhassan should not have been criminally prosecuted over comments she made about President Mahama. He stated that the statements in question could amount to defamation but the appropriate response should not be criminal prosecution. This is not the first time an influencer has been jailed in Ghana. In September 2025, popular TikToker David Kwodwo Prah Afful, known as “Kwame Nkrumah II,” was sentenced to seven months in prison after being convicted of making death threats against President Mahama and members of parliament. President Mahama had previously stated that his government was considering ways to “sanitise” social media, instructing authorities to track down and arrest those spreading misinformation and disinformation.

Ghanaian TikToker Jailed One Year Over False Ritual Claim Against President

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