International
Gaza ceasefire plan turns deadly game of survival – BBC
Gaza ceasefire plan turns deadly game of survival – BBC
For the leaders of both Hamas and Israel, ending the war in Gaza has become a deadly game of survival.
The terms on which the war finally ends could largely determine their political future and their grip on power. For Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, even his physical survival.
It’s partly why previous negotiations have failed. It’s also why the question of how to permanently end the fighting has been put off to the last stages of the plan outlined by US President Joe Biden on Friday.
That transition between talks on a limited hostage-for-prisoner deal to discussions about a permanent ceasefire would, Mr Biden acknowledged, be “difficult”.
But it’s also where the success or failure of this latest deal is likely to hinge.
The US says it has submitted a draft resolution to the UN Security Council supporting the ceasefire plan outlined by President Biden. The three-phase plan involves an end to the conflict, the release of the hostages and reconstruction of the Palestinian territory.
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Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has strong domestic reasons for wanting to take this deal step by step.
Phase one, as outlined by Mr Biden, would see the release of dozens of hostages, both living and dead. That would be widely welcomed in a country where the failure to free all those held by Hamas is, for many, a glaring moral stain on Mr Netanyahu’s management of the war.
But Hamas is unlikely to give up its most politically sensitive hostages – women, wounded, elderly – without some kind of guarantee that Israel won’t simply restart the war once they’re home.
Leaks, quoted by Israeli media on Monday morning, suggested that Benjamin Netanyahu has told parliamentary colleagues that Israel would be able to keep its options open.
That option, to resume fighting – until Hamas is “eliminated” – is, some believe, the least Mr Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners will demand.
Without their support, he faces the prospect of early elections and the continuation of a corruption trial.
Mr Netanyahu needs to keep his long-term options open, to stand a chance of winning their support for any initial hostage deal. Hamas leaders, on the other hand, are likely to want permanent ceasefire guarantees upfront.
Previous deals have collapsed into this chasm. Bridging it now will depend on how much room for manoeuvre Mr Netanyahu has with his hard-right government allies to find alternatives to the “elimination” of Hamas – and how far Hamas leaders are prepared to consider them.
Mr Netanyahu talked over the weekend about the destruction of Hamas’s “military and governing capabilities” and ensuring that the group no longer posed a threat to Israel.
Few dispute that Hamas has suffered major losses to its military infrastructure – and even, some say, to its public support within Gaza and its control of the streets.
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But there’s no sign that Israel has killed or captured its top leaders Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif, and leaving them free in Gaza to celebrate the withdrawal of Israeli forces would spell political disaster for Israel’s embattled prime minister.
On Monday a US State Department spokesman said that although Hamas’s capabilities had “steadily degraded” in recent months, it remained a threat and the US did not believe the group could be eliminated militarily.
Meanwhile the White House said Mr Biden had “confirmed Israel’s readiness to move forward with the terms that have now been offered to Hamas” and said the Palestinian group was now the only obstacle to a deal.
Separately, military spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said the Israeli military would be able to ensure Israel’s security in the event of any truce agreed by the government.
However Yanir Cozin, diplomatic correspondent with Israel’s military radio station, GLZ, believes that Mr Netanyahu won’t end the war until he can frame it as a success.
“A deal that leaves Hamas is a big failure,” he said. “Eight months on, when you haven’t achieved any of the war goals – not finishing Hamas, bringing all the hostages back, or securing the borders – then he doesn’t want to end the war. But he also understands that he cannot leave it until the next Israeli election in 2026.”
“If he can say, ‘We exiled Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif, they’re not living in Gaza’ – and if the people living close to Gaza and the northern border can go back – I think he can keep his government together. But it’s a lot of ‘ifs’.”
Hamas is very unlikely to agree to the exile or surrender of its top figures. But there are clear splits emerging between Hamas leaders inside and outside Gaza.
Former Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak, who has also served as defence minister, told Israeli radio on Monday that President Biden had announced the deal “after seeing that Netanyahu only moves ahead when he’s certain that Sinwar will refuse”.
“How do you think Sinwar will react when he tends to agree and then he’s told: but be quick, because we still have to kill you after you return all the hostages,” he said.
In the meantime, tens of thousands of Israelis displaced after the Hamas attacks on 7 October are watching their prime minister’s next move.
Among them is Yarin Sultan, a 31-year-old mother of three who ran from her home in Sderot on Gaza’s border the morning after the Hamas attacks. She says she won’t go home until Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif are no longer free.
“This ceasefire will kill us,” she told the BBC. “We will free the hostages, but a few years from now you will be the next hostages, you will be the next people who get murdered, the women that are raped – all this will happen again.”
Gaza ceasefire plan turns deadly game of survival – BBC
BBC
International
Iran Threatens Strikes on US, Israeli Banks, Tech Giants
Iran Threatens Strikes on US, Israeli Banks, Tech Giants
Iran has vowed to launch strikes against economic and banking targets linked to the United States and Israel, while also identifying major technology companies as potential future targets, in a sharp escalation of the ongoing Middle East conflict. The warnings follow a reported strike on an Iranian bank in Tehran, which Iranian officials say was hit by US and Israeli forces, killing an unspecified number of employees.
According to Iran’s Khatam al‑Anbiya military command, the attacks give the country “free rein to target economic centres and banks belonging to the United States and the Zionist regime.” The military urged civilians in the region to avoid going within one kilometre of bank buildings, warning of the heightened risk of strikes.
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Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that the bank strike was a serious provocation, adding, “Our powerful armed forces will exact retribution for this crime.” Iranian state media, including the Tasnim News Agency, also published a list of potential future targets in the Gulf and Israel, naming offices and data centres of tech giants such as Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, IBM, Oracle, and Palantir.
The escalation comes after Amazon Web Services data centres in the UAE were reportedly struck by Iranian drones last week, disrupting cloud services across the region. Tasnim described the situation as an “infrastructure war”, signalling Iran’s intent to expand the conflict beyond conventional military targets to economic and technological infrastructure.
Analysts say this development could have far-reaching consequences for regional security, global financial stability, and digital networks, though the current threats remain largely warnings rather than confirmed attacks on US or Israeli economic interests. The situation highlights the increasing vulnerability of critical economic and tech infrastructure amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Iran Threatens Strikes on US, Israeli Banks, Tech Giants
International
UN Condemns Iran’s Attacks on Gulf States, Jordan as Russia, China Abstain
UN Condemns Iran’s Attacks on Gulf States, Jordan as Russia, China Abstain
The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) on Wednesday adopted a resolution condemning Iran’s missile and drone attacks on Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states and Jordan, amid growing international concern over escalating tensions in the Middle East. The resolution, presented by Bahrain and co‑sponsored by 135 UN member countries, passed with 13 votes in favor, while Russia and China abstained, allowing the measure to move forward without a veto.
The resolution emphasises “strong support for the territorial integrity, sovereignty and political independence” of the GCC states and Jordan. It declares that Iran’s attacks “constitute a breach of international law and a serious threat to international peace and security.” It also specifically condemns attacks on civilian infrastructure, noting that these strikes resulted in civilian casualties and damage to civilian buildings, highlighting the humanitarian consequences of the conflict.
Bahrain’s UN envoy, Jamal Fares Alrowaiei, welcomed the resolution, saying it demonstrates the Security Council’s commitment to maintaining international peace and security. “It proved that the Council is committed to maintaining international peace and security. We express our deep gratitude to all member states of the United Nations that co‑sponsored this resolution. Their number amounted to 135 countries,” he said. He noted that the overwhelming international support reflects a collective recognition of the threat posed by Iran’s attacks against the Gulf states and Jordan.
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While the resolution received broad backing, both Russia and China abstained. Analysts suggest their decision reflects geopolitical caution, balancing diplomatic ties with Tehran against the need to avoid appearing to endorse actions condemned by the international community. Neither country formally opposed the resolution, allowing it to pass without exercising veto power.
The UNSC action follows a surge of Iranian missile and drone attacks on GCC states, including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman, as well as Jordan, targeting military and civilian infrastructure. These attacks have raised global security concerns, disrupted critical services, and affected energy markets, particularly with threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic oil transit route. The escalating situation has prompted calls for diplomatic engagement from leaders in the European Union, the G7, and other international bodies to prevent further conflict and stabilise the region.
Experts warn that continued hostilities could further destabilise the Middle East, disrupt global oil exports, and threaten maritime security in one of the world’s most vital energy corridors. The resolution reflects strong international condemnation of Iran’s actions and underscores the importance of coordinated diplomatic efforts to reduce tensions while ensuring compliance with international law.
UN Condemns Iran’s Attacks on Gulf States, Jordan as Russia, China Abstain
International
Iran Warns Oil Could Hit $200, Threatens Strait of Hormuz Blockade
Iran Warns Oil Could Hit $200, Threatens Strait of Hormuz Blockade
Iran has warned that it will not allow “a single litre of oil” to pass through the Strait of Hormuz for the benefit of the United States, Israel and their allies, raising fears of a major disruption to global energy supplies and a potential surge in global oil prices to $200 per barrel.
The warning was issued by Ebrahim Zolfaqari, spokesperson for Iran’s Khatam al‑Anbiya Central Headquarters, who said Tehran could target any vessels carrying oil destined for countries it considers hostile if tensions in the region continue to escalate.
“Let us firmly reiterate that we will never allow even a single litre of oil to pass through the Strait of Hormuz for the benefit of the US, the Zionists and their partners,” Zolfaqari said.
“Any vessel or oil shipment intended for America, the Zionist regime or their hostile allies will be a legitimate target for us.”
The comments come amid escalating tensions between Iran and the United States following warnings from Donald Trump, the President of the United States, who threatened that Iran would face “death, fire and fury” if it attempted to disrupt international shipping through the critical maritime corridor.
Zolfaqari warned that the expansion of the conflict could send crude oil prices soaring, noting that instability in the region directly affects global energy markets.
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“With the expansion of war in the region, you should prepare for $200 per barrel because the price of oil depends on security in the region, and you are the source of insecurity,” he said.
The Strait of Hormuz, located between Iran and Oman, connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea and serves as one of the most strategic chokepoints in global energy trade.
An estimated 20 percent of the world’s oil supply—around 18 to 20 million barrels per day—passes through the narrow waterway, making any disruption a major concern for global markets.
A blockade or prolonged disruption could significantly impact exports from major Gulf producers including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
Energy markets have already reacted to the rising tensions, with Brent crude oil prices briefly crossing $100 per barrel, the highest level in several months, as traders respond to fears of supply disruptions.
Maritime security agencies have also reported increased attacks on commercial vessels transiting the region, raising concerns over the safety of shipping routes in the Gulf.
Amid the growing crisis, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced that its 32 member countries will release 400 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves in an effort to stabilise markets and prevent severe supply shortages.
According to Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the IEA, the coordinated action represents the largest emergency oil release in the organisation’s history.
The move surpasses the 182 million barrels released in 2022 following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, highlighting the scale of concern over the current Middle East crisis.
Energy analysts warn that while emergency reserves could temporarily ease pressure on markets, the most important factor for stabilising prices remains the restoration of safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
Meanwhile, concerns are growing in Nigeria over the potential impact of the crisis on domestic fuel prices.
The African Democratic Congress (ADC) has called on the Federal Government to introduce a temporary cap on petrol prices to protect Nigerians from rising fuel costs driven by global oil market volatility.
In a statement signed by its National Publicity Secretary, Bolaji Abdullahi, the party warned that the Middle East crisis could worsen Nigeria’s already severe cost-of-living crisis.
“ADC calls on the Federal Government to immediately introduce a temporary and time-bound cap on petrol prices to prevent further increases that continue to push the cost of living beyond the reach of millions of Nigerians,” Abdullahi said.
The party also criticised the government’s plan to distribute 100,000 compressed natural gas (CNG) conversion kits, arguing that the figure represents less than one percent of Nigeria’s more than 11 million vehicles.
According to the party, the programme is further constrained by the limited number of CNG refuelling stations across the country, making the transition away from petrol difficult for many motorists.
ADC warned that while global oil market volatility may be triggered by external shocks, it should not be used to justify unchecked fuel price increases in Nigeria’s already fragile economy.
Analysts say any prolonged disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger one of the biggest energy shocks in decades, with global consequences including higher fuel prices, rising inflation and increased transport costs.
Iran Warns Oil Could Hit $200, Threatens Strait of Hormuz Blockade
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