Gaza ceasefire plan turns deadly game of survival - BBC – Newstrends
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Gaza ceasefire plan turns deadly game of survival – BBC

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The plan aims to wind down the war after eight months of fighting

Gaza ceasefire plan turns deadly game of survival – BBC

For the leaders of both Hamas and Israel, ending the war in Gaza has become a deadly game of survival.

The terms on which the war finally ends could largely determine their political future and their grip on power. For Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, even his physical survival.

It’s partly why previous negotiations have failed. It’s also why the question of how to permanently end the fighting has been put off to the last stages of the plan outlined by US President Joe Biden on Friday.

That transition between talks on a limited hostage-for-prisoner deal to discussions about a permanent ceasefire would, Mr Biden acknowledged, be “difficult”.

But it’s also where the success or failure of this latest deal is likely to hinge.

The US says it has submitted a draft resolution to the UN Security Council supporting the ceasefire plan outlined by President Biden. The three-phase plan involves an end to the conflict, the release of the hostages and reconstruction of the Palestinian territory.

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Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has strong domestic reasons for wanting to take this deal step by step.

Phase one, as outlined by Mr Biden, would see the release of dozens of hostages, both living and dead. That would be widely welcomed in a country where the failure to free all those held by Hamas is, for many, a glaring moral stain on Mr Netanyahu’s management of the war.

But Hamas is unlikely to give up its most politically sensitive hostages – women, wounded, elderly – without some kind of guarantee that Israel won’t simply restart the war once they’re home.

Leaks, quoted by Israeli media on Monday morning, suggested that Benjamin Netanyahu has told parliamentary colleagues that Israel would be able to keep its options open.

That option, to resume fighting – until Hamas is “eliminated” – is, some believe, the least Mr Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners will demand.

Without their support, he faces the prospect of early elections and the continuation of a corruption trial.

Mr Netanyahu needs to keep his long-term options open, to stand a chance of winning their support for any initial hostage deal. Hamas leaders, on the other hand, are likely to want permanent ceasefire guarantees upfront.

Previous deals have collapsed into this chasm. Bridging it now will depend on how much room for manoeuvre Mr Netanyahu has with his hard-right government allies to find alternatives to the “elimination” of Hamas – and how far Hamas leaders are prepared to consider them.

Mr Netanyahu talked over the weekend about the destruction of Hamas’s “military and governing capabilities” and ensuring that the group no longer posed a threat to Israel.

Few dispute that Hamas has suffered major losses to its military infrastructure – and even, some say, to its public support within Gaza and its control of the streets.

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But there’s no sign that Israel has killed or captured its top leaders Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif, and leaving them free in Gaza to celebrate the withdrawal of Israeli forces would spell political disaster for Israel’s embattled prime minister.

On Monday a US State Department spokesman said that although Hamas’s capabilities had “steadily degraded” in recent months, it remained a threat and the US did not believe the group could be eliminated militarily.

Meanwhile the White House said Mr Biden had “confirmed Israel’s readiness to move forward with the terms that have now been offered to Hamas” and said the Palestinian group was now the only obstacle to a deal.

Separately, military spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said the Israeli military would be able to ensure Israel’s security in the event of any truce agreed by the government.

However Yanir Cozin, diplomatic correspondent with Israel’s military radio station, GLZ, believes that Mr Netanyahu won’t end the war until he can frame it as a success.

“A deal that leaves Hamas is a big failure,” he said. “Eight months on, when you haven’t achieved any of the war goals – not finishing Hamas, bringing all the hostages back, or securing the borders – then he doesn’t want to end the war. But he also understands that he cannot leave it until the next Israeli election in 2026.”

“If he can say, ‘We exiled Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif, they’re not living in Gaza’ – and if the people living close to Gaza and the northern border can go back – I think he can keep his government together. But it’s a lot of ‘ifs’.”

Hamas is very unlikely to agree to the exile or surrender of its top figures. But there are clear splits emerging between Hamas leaders inside and outside Gaza.

Former Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak, who has also served as defence minister, told Israeli radio on Monday that President Biden had announced the deal “after seeing that Netanyahu only moves ahead when he’s certain that Sinwar will refuse”.

“How do you think Sinwar will react when he tends to agree and then he’s told: but be quick, because we still have to kill you after you return all the hostages,” he said.

In the meantime, tens of thousands of Israelis displaced after the Hamas attacks on 7 October are watching their prime minister’s next move.

Among them is Yarin Sultan, a 31-year-old mother of three who ran from her home in Sderot on Gaza’s border the morning after the Hamas attacks. She says she won’t go home until Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif are no longer free.

“This ceasefire will kill us,” she told the BBC. “We will free the hostages, but a few years from now you will be the next hostages, you will be the next people who get murdered, the women that are raped – all this will happen again.”

Gaza ceasefire plan turns deadly game of survival – BBC

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Biden faces donor pressure in his re-election bid

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U.S. President Joe Biden

Biden faces donor pressure in his re-election bid

President Joe Biden is facing pressure from some major Democratic donors as he faces a critical few days in his campaign for re-election.

A number of donors are publicly warning they will withhold funds unless Mr Biden is replaced as the party’s candidate following his disastrous debate performance last week.

They include Abigail Disney, an heiress to the Disney family fortune, Hollywood producer Damon Lindelof, Hollywood agent Ari Emanuel, and philanthropist and entrepreneur Gideon Stein.

Mr Biden is seeking to shore up his candidacy this weekend, including with a rare primetime TV interview on Friday and a rally in Wisconsin.

Pressure on Mr Biden, 81, to step aside has grown following a debate marked by several instances where he lost his train of thought and was incomprehensible.

While he admitted that he “screwed up” that night, he has vowed to stay on as his party’s standard-bearer taking on Donald Trump in the November presidential election.

“I’m not going anywhere,” he said on Thursday at a White House gathering marking 4 July Independence Day in the US.

Ms Disney told the US business news channel CNBC that she did not believe that Mr Biden could win against Trump in November.

She said her intent to pull support was rooted in “realism, not disrespect”.

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“Biden is a good man and has served his country admirably, but the stakes are far too high,” Ms Disney, who has supported a number of Democrats and Democratic causes over the years, said.

“If Biden does not step down the Democrats will lose. Of that I am absolutely certain. The consequences for the loss will be genuinely dire.”

With her warning, she joined a handful of other wealthy donors.

Mr Stein told the New York Times that his family was withholding $3.5m (£2.8m) to non-profit and political organisations active in the presidential race unless Mr Biden steps aside.

Mr Lindelof, who has donated more than $100,000 to Democrats this election cycle, wrote a public essay urging other donors to withhold their funds in what he dubbed a “DEMbargo”.

“When they text you asking for cash, text back that you’re not giving them a penny and you won’t change your mind until there’s change at the top of the ticket,” Mr Lindelof wrote in Deadline.

Mr Emanuel – the brother of Rahm Emanuel, a former Barack Obama chief of staff – told a conference in Colorado that withholding funding was the key to ensuring Mr Biden’s exit from the race, the Financial Times reported on Thursday.

“The lifeblood to a campaign is money, and maybe the only way . . . is if the money starts drying up,” he said, according to the newspaper.

“You’ll see in the next couple weeks, if the money comes in . . . I talked to a bunch of big donors, and they’re moving all their money to Congress and the Senate.”

Some other major donors have not threatened to cut funding but are putting public pressure on the president to withdraw.

Reed Hastings, co-founder of Netflix and one of the biggest donors to the Democratic Party, told US media that Mr Biden “needs to step aside to allow a vigorous Democratic leader to beat Trump and keep us safe and prosperous”.

Others have expressed concerns about the possibility of a damaging and chaotic race to replace Mr Biden if he does leave.

Ramesh Kapur, a Massachusetts-based Indian-American industrialist, has organised fundraisers for Democrats since 1988.

“I think it’s time for him to pass the torch,” Mr Kapur told the BBC this week. “I know he has the drive, but you can’t fight Mother Nature.”

“What I know of him, he will decide what’s good for the country,” he added.

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There are some who are worried there’s not enough time left for a new candidate to join the race, and they have decided to back Biden if he stays on.

A mega-donor the BBC spoke to this week, who declined to be named, said he planned to go ahead with a fundraiser for the president scheduled for later this month at his Virginia home.

“We all want to keep Donald Trump out of the White House, and probably that will keep us together,” he said.

The Biden campaign has said it raised $38m from debate day through to the weekend, mainly through small donations – and a total of $127m in June alone.

The Biden team and the president have conceded he had a difficult debate but have said he is ready to show the public he has the stamina for the campaign.

On Friday, he is scheduled to sit down with ABC – the first television interview after the debate – to help quell concerns about his age and mental faculties.

He will also travel to Madison, Wisconsin to campaign with Governor Tony Evers.

But the president is facing a series of negative polls which suggest his Republican rival’s lead has widened in the wake of the Atlanta debate.

A New York Times poll published on Wednesday suggested Trump was now holding his biggest lead yet at six points.

And a separate poll published by the BBC’s US partner CBS News suggested a slight shift towards Trump, who had a three-point lead over Mr Biden in the crucial battleground states.

Brajesh Upadhyay contributed to this report

Biden faces donor pressure in his re-election bid

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Coastguards recover 89 bodies of migrants from sunk boat in Atlantic

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Coastguards recover 89 bodies of migrants from sunk boat in Atlantic

Coastguards in Mauritania have recovered 89 bodies of migrants from a boat that capsized in the Atlantic Ocean on Monday.

Nine people – including a five-year-old girl – were rescued, but dozens more are missing.

Survivors say the vessel – a traditional fishing boat – set sail last week from the Senegalese-Gambian border area with 170 people on board. It capsized off Mauritania’s south-western coast.

Mauritania is a key transit point for migrants trying to reach Europe from West Africa, with thousands of boats departing from the country last year.

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The most common destination on the perilous route is Spain’s Canary Islands.

The Spanish government says nearly 40,000 people arrived there last year – double the number from the previous year.

Desperate to get to Europe, migrants often travel in overloaded boats.

More than 5,000 migrants died while trying to reach Spain by sea in the first five months of 2024, the Ca-minando Fronteras charity estimates.

In April, the EU granted Mauritania €210m (£177m; $225m) in aid – almost €60m of which will be invested in the fight against undocumented migration to Europe.

Coastguards recover 89 bodies of migrants from sunk boat in Atlantic

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Keir Starmer set to become next UK prime minister after Labour historic win

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Keir Starmer

Keir Starmer set to become next UK prime minister after Labour historic win

The United Kingdom’s Labour Party swept to power early on Friday after winning the country’s general election, crossing the 326-seat threshold for a working majority in the House of Commons.

“A mandate like this comes with a great responsibility,” Labour leader Keir Starmer told supporters at a triumphant dawn rally in London, moments after the results that sealed its landslide win were announced.

BBC reports that as the final figures come in, Labour is expected to win 410 seats, with the Conservatives on 144.

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Also, Rishi Sunak has accepted defeat, and said he called Starmer to congratulate him.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister-elect, Keir Starmer, has pledged to start a period of “national renewal” in the UK after his opposition Labour Party defeated the ruling Conservatives in the general election.

“Today we start the next chapter — begin the work of change, the mission of national renewal and start to rebuild our country,” Starmer said in a triumphant victory speech in London after his party secured a majority in parliament.

Keir Starmer set to become next UK prime minister after Labour historic win

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